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From The Times

July 11, 2008

Iran and Israel build up their bluffing game

The warlike posturing would be more frightening if there were much likelihood of an Israeli attack - but there isn't

Gerard Baker

When governments undertake grand gestures in the full glare of public attention, the only thing you can be sure of is that they do not mean what they appear to mean. That's a useful rule of thumb to apply to any exercise in public diplomacy but it's especially helpful when trying to fathom the volatile politics of the Middle East.

There has been a certain choreographed quality to events in the skies over the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf in the last month. This week Iran fired a volley of medium-range missiles into the skies over the Gulf, demonstrating its capacity to hit targets in Israel. A month ago, Israeli warplanes carried out large and fearsome warplane exercises over the Mediterranean that looked like a practice run for a bombing raid on Iranian nuclear facilities.

It's clear what we are supposed to think. Israel is sufficiently agitated now by the Iranian nuclear threat that it is in the military-strike-planning stage, flying sorties that match in range precisely the distance between Israeli air bases and Tehran. Iran in response makes clear it has the missile capability to take out Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

But appearances can be deceptive. In Iran's case at least part of the deception has already been exposed - to mildly comical effect. It turns out that the picture of the launch of four Iranian missiles that appeared on the front pages of newspapers around the world yesterday was itself a fake.

If you look carefully at the picture, you'll notice that the missile second from right has clearly been pasted in - its launch contrail is identical to that of the one to the left and the cloud of desert sand in its wake is identical to that on the right. Original copies of the photo have now established that the fourth missile failed to fire and so, to cover up the embarrassment, and presumably to protect the promotion prospects of some hapless officer in the Revolutionary Guards, a fairly crude construct was sent to foreign news agencies.

Bad news: clearly some of the most sophisticated and effective Western technology has fallen into Iranian hands after all. Good news: it's Photoshop.

But if the Iranian military's efforts to deceive are cruder, they may be no less opaque than the cloud of smoke around Israel's own superficially plausible warning shot.

The simple reality is that, for all its sabre-rattling, Israel cannot carry out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities on its own. An Israeli strike would require the active co-operation of the US. Israeli F15 and F16 warplanes would not only have to fly and be refuelled in Iraqi airspace - controlled by the Americans - but the whole operation would require logistical support from US bases on the ground in Iraq. Support helicopters would need to be based in Iraq and rescue teams needed to evacuate any downed Israeli pilots would have to operate inside Iraq.

In short this would be in effect a joint US-Israeli mission. The catch is that Washington has no intention of joining in any attack any time soon.

The military leadership is opposed. Last week Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that an Israeli strike would open up a “third front” for the US - after Iraq and Afghanistan - and suggested it could break an already stretched military.

The political leadership at the Pentagon is opposed. Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, rarely misses an opportunity to caution in private about the risk associated with an attack on Iran. His senior aides are focused hard on building on the improving stability in Iraq - something that has been achieved at least in part with some covert co-operation between the pro-US Iraqi Government and the Iranians.

The Treasury is opposed. Hank Paulson, the Treasury Secretary, not only fears the damage to the US economy and markets that a strike would have as the price of oil rose to at least $200 per barrel. There is also growing optimism at the Treasury that the financial sanctions that it is co-ordinating against the Iranian regime are starting to bear fruit. Though German companies unscrupulously continue to shop around for business in Tehran, officials say, other European companies are increasing co-operating. This week's decision by Total, the French oil giant, to pull out of a possible investment in Iran is seen as a signal victory.

And of course the State Department is opposed. Cynics might suppose this is because it's always opposed to anything that might involve someone getting hurt, but that would be unfair. Condoleezza Rice and her colleagues are genuinely confident that they have toughened European resolve and that their diplomacy is working.

It is, of course, possible that George Bush would defy his Secretary of State, Treasury Secretary, Defence Secretary and the entire leadership of the US military and order US participation in an Israeli mission.

One theory, popular in the office of the Vice-President, Dick Cheney, is that the US will have a narrow window to support an Israeli attack. A strike before November's election would be politically disastrous because of surging oil prices and intensified wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But if Barack Obama wins, they fear his public commitment to intensified diplomacy with Iran would mean any chance of stopping the nuclear programme would be lost. So, they argue, the US would need to co-ordinate an Israeli attack between November 5, the day after the election, and January 20, when a possible Obama presidency begins.

But this brings us back to the latest round of choreography. If you're going to do it, why signal to the Iranians months in advance? When Israel brilliantly took out Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981, it did so without any warning at all.

In any case, the jaundiced Cheney view of the willingness of an Obama administration to address the Iranian threat may not be justified. There is a surprising amount of continuity in US foreign policy. Mr Obama is already backing off some of his more dovish commitments as the general election nears. Don't be surprised if he turns out to be as unready to accept a nuclear-armed Iran as any Republican.

So this current round of sabre-rattling is probably just, to paraphrase Clausewitz, diplomacy by other means, reminiscent of the scary game of bluff and counter-bluff we all played in the Cold War.

But it's worth remembering that the West only won the Cold War when it demonstrated forcefully that it was prepared to do what was necessary to stop the other side from annihilating it, even at the risk of massive damage to itself. We're not there yet, and the Iranians may still need convincing that the West has that kind of resolve today.

Solana advice to the US presence to Geneva Talks ended up with humiliating the US efforts for a peaceful solution with Iran's NUCLEAR WARHEAD PROGRAM. Iran has to seriously reconsider its position within two weeks. Iran is now risking matters, much against its own interest. no option left to US ??

Daniel Salaman, NICOSIA, CYPRUS

To those of u who say who have iran attacked in the last 599 yrs hamas hisbullah shieite terrorism accross the globe 911 attack in argentina killing britsh soldiers in iraq to name just a few so stop being so pc and open your eyes b4 its too late, and why should Israel ask fo permission to defend.

yeshurun, london,

The west preach democracy and freedom, but Iran cannot develop nuclear capabilities for domestic use. Other than Ahmadinejad saying "wipe Israel off the map" (which I believe was stated in a political context) I don't see what Iran has done to convince the world they will make nukes? Advise plz.

Steve, Folkestone,

That's correct Richard. 1502 was the last time Persia / Iran initiated an invasive war.

Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada

These rockets are the legendary Azziz Mark IV 379 Interloper, legendary for their inability to land on target. At a recent practice attack on Israel, one ended up off the coast of Poole, Dorset.

john problem, winchester, uk

useless speculation

macc, talyhos, macedonia

This is 1939/2008. Iran is the new Poland. Austria/Afghanistan and Czechoslovakia/Iraq have both been overrun. Jews/Muslims are being persicuted.

Guess which side we are on?

:(

J Wilson, Glasgow,

Well said. Israel rattles saber to get action from other countries that otherwise would not occur at all when the obvious fact, well known and reported is that Iran's nuclear capacities are spread out and sometimes buried and so can't be hit in a single strike.

jonathan, boston, usa

Posturing? yes. Predictive outcome? doubtful. The ancestors of Iranians were warlike, arrogant and untrustworthy. Was anything learned from the punishment meted by the Mongols?
Are we dealing with a politician or a mindset stuck in the C13th?

Terence Park, Burnley,

During the Cold War, Israel’s role was to keep a close check on Soviet expansion in the Arab region.
Currently, Washington’s emphasis is on oil rich Arab nations. ie IRAQ.
Israel's current job function is to irritate and aggravate US's archenemy in the region, IRAN.
All else is irrelevant !

Nicholas, California, USA

To Jas of Alders,

You may want to re-work you numbers, friend. 2520 years ago, neither Britain nor the Ottoman Empire existed. It was more like 90 years ago that all that stuff you talk about happened.

Alex, seattle, america

The "wiped off the face of the earth" quote has been thoroughly debunked as a mistranslation, what was actually said was the Israeli regime shall be wiped from the pages of history like the communist regime of the USSR. Good luck to Iran in their pursuit of nukes - the only chance for world peace!

Kevin, London,

Its called creep.The dominant powers influence is eroded until it implodes leaving chaos.We will miss the USA when it is gone.
Happened to Rome, Russia,Ottomans, Britain, usually in the same place.

ged , manchester,

OPEC is now taking the side of Iran warning about the oil shortage. I do not think for one second that Iran can afford to stop the oil from flowing as they themselves have to import 40% of their gasoline. The time is not ripe for a strike at Iran because they have not passed the "red line".

Gene44, Gebüg, Germany

Please tell J Wilson about the American embassy invasion by the Iranian "students"and the hostage taking of US diplomats, the bombing of an Argentine Jewish social club, the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina, and not least Irans' supplying insurgents in Iraq with IEDs that kill US troops!

Morry Rotenberg, Deerfield, USA

Well Israel has Nukes and Iran doesn't!

Israel refused to sign the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, Iran has signed it!

Keith, The US sold Sadam the Chemical Weapons in the 80's during the Iran-Iraq war! Britian build Chemical weapons factorys for Sadam also!

All Declassified now!

Andrew Towell, Hartlepool, England, UK

Jas, how are we headed for a nuclear conflict if the Iranians don't have nukes? They really are last resort in the US's armour, Tehran would fall just as easily to MOABs.

Secondly, the US wouldn't necessarily have to get involved directly - they would only have to grant Israel flyover airspace

John, Washington DC, USA

Wishful thinking, nobody is going to attack Iran.

Gabriel, Dublin, Ireland

Isnt it amazing. After 2520 years to the very day Jerusalem was Freed from the Ottoman Empire without a shot being fired by General Alenby. The Turkish army left Jerusalem after pamphlets were dropped and the Turks heard they were fighting a decendent of the prophet. Israel today governs our lives

Jas, Alders , UK

why do not want to understand the condition is really critical. two govrnments have real military cpacities to hit each other, and iirational dominant elite who really fancy war. and it could fire the region and threaten international peace.

H Salimi, Tehran, Iran

It's a bit rich of Israel to be convinced that an Iranian attack is on the way - they haven't attacked another sovereign state for thousands of years! Whereas Israel regularly attacks it neighbours.

The abused becomes the abuser.

Owen, London, UK

Actually Gerard Barker is one of the few experts that thinks its all just posturing. Most of the Geoploitical scientists, experts reports I read have been expecting this. Day by day it ratchets up. Does anyone know when to stop -No! We are headed for a nuclear conflict. Students the bible know it.

Jas, Alders , UK

Watch my lips: there will be an Israeli attack, most probably before G. Bush leaves the stage or immediately after.

ian cheese, london, uk

Let's not forget which Fundamentalist regime has been doing the threatening (Iran) and which country (Israel) quietly withstood the threat of 100s of chemical missiles from Iraq in the early 90's. Looks like we'll see a repeat of their last mission to Iran pretty soon.

jon, Iowa, USA

a big joke...I sell in Iran and guess what products I am competing with: US products...then guess what bank notes I have to have to settle my bills...Euros....No ! you've lost. I need USD !

Also guess that I am being told that our Euro is too high and can I line up on US products !

E.Bee, Toulouse, France

Shia Iran is surrounded by the same bunch of Sunnis that successfully attacked the WTC on 9-11.

Is it any wonder they need to pretend to have WMDs?

After Saddam lead Iraq's invasion of Iran, if Iran had defeated Iraq, the US would not have needed to invade Iraq.

Keith S, Winnipeg, Canada

While the west may indulge in grand gestures and 'statements' of "concern " and disaproval.About a country far away.isreal has to face nations oppsed to its very exxistence and watch the west mesmorised by islam like a frightened rabbit.Any nation that undermines Isreal undermines itself.

G Blezard, London, uk

"Yes, but not under a government of zealots who deny them their freedoms and bring them a conflict they don't need. " Pete
But there is no conflict currently, just propaganda - until ssomebody starts a conflict! Iran had a dictator, almost as bloody as Sadam but the US, UK and Israel were happy!

T. Andre, London ,

The first stage in any war is a propaganda war. Please can we all stop being so complacent. A clash with Iran is near.

nev, london,

Vive Iran! J Wilson, Glas.

Yes, but not under a government of zealots who deny them their freedoms and bring them a conflict they don't need. Ir. could be one of the world's great nations but since 1979 its leadership has forced it to live in the 13th century and now on the edge of destruction.

Pete, Yorkshire, UK

J Wilson,

defence of national resources is not a cause for shock horror. Threating to wipe another country off the map is.

aaron, jerusalem,

When Cheyney leaves office he will go back to being CEO of Haliburton and Big OIL,the true USA govrnment.After the FISA compromise(cave in)it is obvious that the corporations run the country.The majority of so called law makers are bought and paid for,if polls show strong dem lead expect war in Sept

John P, Newcastle, UK

The Israelis practice war games over the Eastern Mediterranean. Thats ok. The US practices war games over the entire Gulf. Thats ok. The Iranians practice war games within their own borders in response to threats from the US and Israel. Pandemonium! Hypocrisy at its most gut wrenching.

Sam, Glasgow,

Irans true crime has been to be independant, to have large amounts of natural resources and to defend those resources. Shock Horror! Who have they attacked in the past, oh, 500 years? NOBODY!!! Who have attacked them in that time? Colonial powers (UK, Ottomans etc), Isreal and now the US. Vive Iran!

J Wilson, Glasgow,

The current president of Iran may not share sympathies toward Israel but should be somewhat constraint by the fact that such sentiments are widespread and strong among Iranians, going back to Cyrus' freeing Jewish exiles.

Hermann Burchard , Stillwater , Oklahoma

Shiite leader Ahmadinejad's missile and nuclear saber rattling mainly is meant to be heard by his fellow Muslims of the Sunni
persuasion who fear a newly liberated Shiite Mesopotamia will strengthen Iran.

Hermann Burchard, Stillwater , Oklahoma

A clear majority of Israelis believe their government to be corrupt (9 out of 10) in a recent survey. That means the finger on the trigger that will start a nuclear war from the secret Dimona underground arsenal belongs to a corrupt politician. Are you scared? I'm petrified - and I kid you not.

C U Vaird, London, UK

If Israel decided that a strike in Iran was needed I don't think tresspassing into Iraqi airspace or the loss of downed pilots would be enough to stop them, any country will gladly upset any another and sacrifice hundreds of military personnel to defend hundreds of thousands of it's own citizens.

John, London, UK,

Strange that a nuclear Iran is so terrifying to people who don't lose any sleep over India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel or China, to name a few. But I suppose they're eviler, or something. After all, they've been invading other countires for ages. Oh, no, sorry, that's someone else.

richard, horley, UK

One contradiction: the author says public gestures don't mean what powers actually mean to do, yet he quotes Mullens as being opposed to a strike. Which is the bluff?

And one non-sequitur. We're supposed to be afraid of $200 oil. But how far could oil go if we concede nuclear arms to Iran?

jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA

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Let Biggs stay where he is

Iran and Israel build up their bluffing game

The warlike posturing would be more frightening if there were much likelihood of an Israeli attack - but there isn't