Does Alex Salmond want his big plan for a local income tax to succeed, or is he pushing ahead just to provoke the mother of all rows with the mother of all parliaments? This is the question that political observers have been asking since the first minister launched his new legislative programme last week, with its flagship bill being the replacement of council tax with local income tax.

It’s an odd question, if you think about it, whether or not the leader of our devolved government announces legislation for the hell of it. But then Salmond is an odd politician. Much of what he does is for his own amusement rather than out of any deep-seated sense of conviction or for the good of the country.

The same could not be said about other politicians. Gordon Brown, for example, is clearly not doing anything for his own amusement. And nor is the solemn, purposeful Barack Obama. Even David Cameron seems motivated by more serious goals.

But Salmond finds politics a bit of a hoot. There he was in Holyrood on Wednesday, head tipped back, teeth bared and eyes creased in mirth, a characteristic picture of merriment although engaged in matters of state, delivering his agenda for the year ahead. There is nothing wrong with being happy in your job, but when Salmond plays the joker we should all worry, because inevitably the joke is on us.

His bill to abolish council tax in favour of a nationally set local income tax (LIT) is a hopeless cause as it stands and he knows it. There was overwhelming resistance from the start, when the Scottish government’s own consultation process rejected the proposals. A broad cross section of public officialdom — including the Confederation of British Industry, the Scottish Trades Union Congress, the Institute of Directors, the Institute of Chartered Accountants, the Federation of Small Businesses and the National Union of Students — has derided the tax as unworkable.

Opposition in the Scottish parliament is apparently intractable, too, with the Tories and Labour against a move that would slash council spending, make Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK, leave a financial black hole potentially as high as £1.3 billion, clobber the middle classes, and that may even be illegal.

The Lib Dems, who alone support the principle of an LIT, prefer a tax collected locally to Salmond’s scheme, leaving the nationalists, with their one-seat majority, somewhat isolated.

He needs not only the 16 Lib Dem votes, but also those of the two Greens, who are not on board, and would have to spend the next year, at least until the bill is introduced, being very nice to Tavish Scott.

It is an unlikely scenario. Although there have been murmurs of back room plotting between the two parties, the new Scottish Lib Dem leader can’t stand Salmond and will prove hard to please. And Salmond can only do so much sweet-talking.

He is far more comfortable with discord and there is going to be plenty more of that in the lead up to the next Scottish elections, due in 2011.

The fight with Westminster has already been picked — over the £400m council tax benefits given annually to Scotland, which the Treasury will not pay if there is no council tax, creating an even bigger hole in the SNP’s sums.

Imagine how much pleasure Salmond will derive from a protracted row with London, ending with the possible defeat of his bill just before Scots go to the polls.