Almost a thousand square miles of Scotland have been placed under quarantine after the first British case of H5N1 bird flu was confirmed in a swan found dead in Fife. The owners of 48 free-range farms will have to bring their 260,000 birds indoors, or take measures to ensure that they have no contact with wild birds. Should such precautions have been taken earler? Are we doing enough to prevent the virus spreading - should the quarantine be imposed nationwide? Read the <a><b>article</b></a> and send us your view using the form below<p>

On Sunday morning when working alone on a canal towpath, a walker drew my attention to a dead Aylesbury duck in the adjacent field. Not having my cell phone with me, I stopped work and went home to report this, starting with a call to the Police 0845 number. This referred me to another number who referred me to yet another and another - five calls in all. Unfortunately, I had not noted the final one correctly, so got nowhere. I phoned Cumbria who had taken basic details and who promised to phone back. Nobody did. Shortly afterwards it was announced that only groups of three or more birds were of interest to the authorities. However, should I see a whole flock of dead birds, I'll not be wasting my time and money again, listening to the blandishments of a seductive voice welcoming me to the (exciting) world of DEFRA, and to menus and gabbled phone numbers. The duck was still there yesterday, Monday. Name and address withheld

Well done, Tony Blair. It would appear from most media coverage that he has successfully pulled the wool over people's eyes, since no-one is talking about the real problem: that a pandemic by a virus which is currently killing 55 per cent of its victims "may be imminent" (WHO March 2006), but the much-trumpeted UK pandemic preparedness plan is based on a mortality rate of 0.37 per cent. Those who say that a pandemic may not happen need to know two things: that every new human flu strain had caused pandemics before settling down into ongoing seasonal outbreaks, and that there is no precedence for such new strains to cause repeated human infections and then disappear spontaneously. These are facts and they are scary. It is not scaremongering to tell the public scary facts, which is what the Government is using to silence dissent and divert attention from its failure to address this issue adequately and openly. A freight train is accelerating down the tracks. It may still stop in time, but we don't know that for sure. Tony Blair is asking you to not jump out of the way: "trust me, I've got it handled." Are you going to bet your children’s lives on Tony Blair’s word? Susan Chu, Beaconsfield

Is a symptom of bird flu that it induces mild hysteria, speculation and hyperbole amongst the media particularly TV news reporters? Robin Miller, Edinburgh



Well, it's the perfect story for journalists and columnists with a mental block about what to write about next isn't it? Let's scare the willies out of the public about what might happen to them if a series of coincidences occur. Paul Caisley, Guildford

Perhaps the British are being unnervingly sensible about "bird flu" simply because we have seen it all before in the UK and dealt with it before it got out of hand. The last case was in Norfolk in 1991 - the steps taken at that time stopped the disease in its tracks. It clearly does not make for a sensational headline which is probably why the media have largely ignored this successfully contained outbreak. Name and address withheld

Are we going to keep all domestic poultry housed within buildings for the next one hundred years? The consensus of expert opinion is that globally the wild bird population will carry the Avian Influenza (AI) H5N1 for a considerable time - the likelihood is beyond the year 2099. The implication of this, if we implement the present strategy of housing all domestic birds in order to avoid contact with the wild bird population, is that there will no longer be any non-commercial free-range poultry keepers - myself and others whose hobby and part of our way of life and cultural identity will become an extinct species! So far in the debate, the long-term strategy to live with the global wild bird population and the natural life span of this present epidemic seems to have been missed, or at least not reported (it must be noted that AI was first recognised in 1878, and the cause a virus first identified in 1955). My own research indicates that self-interested organisations have rather short-sightedly missed or forgotten this key point in helping to determine the wisdom required for immediate crisis management and forging a long-term strategy. Anti-viral inoculation procedures already exist to combat numerous Avian Influenza strains, including H5N1. Myself, and most likely the majority of non-commercial poultry-keepers, are happy to treat our birds, register our flocks if required, helping to maintain bio security with strict observance of regulations regards disease control. This action should begin immediately. Graham Matthews, Gower, Wales

A pandemic will be a disaster. Who will be stocking up and staffing supermarkets or other parts of the food supply chain? With possibly 25 per cent of such workers off sick and another 25 per cent staying at home through fear, or the need to care for sick relatives? The same goes for fuel supplies, health facilities, the police and other emergency services. It might not happen, but if it does it will be pretty apocalyptic. But I suppose our worries about oil supplies, climate change and terrorism will recede. Mike Briscoe, Manchester

Seems that DEFRA is intent on mismanaging another disease crisis within the farming world. They made a total balls-up of the last one and I'm confident they will do the same this time. This virus is slowly mutating and will eventually cause huge problems for human health. Drastic problems require drastic solutions ... act now, vaccinate - or we will come to regret it. M. Frederick, Warsaw

Apparently bird flu has killed 19 people in Indonesia which is the fourth most populous nation in the world. The virus has been in that country for some time. The total number of dead at 19 would probably relate to the daily deaths in the UK from influenza and related illnesses during the winter period. Could someone please explain what the fuss is about? Name and address withheld

A geneticist friend of mine in California tells me that there are only two genes that need to be changed (or mutated) in the H5N1 DNA to make the current strains transmissible between humans. If this is correct then it is only a matter of time, and probably not much time at that, before the mutation takes place. Whether the resulting virus retains its lethality or not is unknown, but there are indications from south-east Asia that this could increase as well as decrease. Whatever the lethality, nobody alive (except those who have already survived the disease) will have any effective immunity to this strain. In October 2005, Newsweek magazine quoted Dr Margaret Chan, head of pandemic-flu preparedness at the World Health Organisation, who stated that once the H2H version emerges, there will be a three-week window in which local outbreaks can be controlled before the virus spreads worldwide. There must be effective surveillance, the authority and the will to impose and enforce areas of quarantine, the availability of anti-virals in sufficient quantities to be rushed to affected areas and an effective state of readiness in hospitals if this is to be controlled. If we get this wrong, there have been estimates of up to 142 million deaths worldwide and we can forget about the price of oil as the worldwide economy will grind to a halt. Nicholas Rose, North Carolina, USA

Blah blah blah. I find it hard to take this seriously. There are so many nasty things out there that I know could happen to me. I'm finding it a little difficult to worry about what "might" happen when a disease that doesn't actually exist in humans yet could, if a bunch of other things happen develop and then I "could" catch it and would probably die, but I'm all right at the moment because it hasn't actually happened yet, but I should take care because it might.... Is anyone else getting a headache? Kate Ryan, Surrey

Frankly, I don't find anything laughable about any viral disease, whether animal-to-animal, animal-to-human, and certainly not human-to-human. A virus is mindless rogue DNA, with no other "purpose" except self-replication, forever mutating, and easily transmitted through coughs and sneezes (the very symptoms that viruses provoke, no doubt, to aid their dispersal). One may laugh at hysteria, but even the Chief Medical Officer was quoted recently as saying that it was inevitable that avian flu would, sooner or later, mutate to a pandemic form, transmissible directly from one human being to another. What would be the mortality rate in such an eventuality ? Hopefully not 50 per cent, but even 0.5 per cent translates into 300,000 premature deaths. I shall continue eating chicken, and getting out and about, but every statement from Government that I hear will be closely scrutinised to distinguish fact from wishful thinking, common sense from spin. This Government does not have a good track record in its handling of health crises, whether involving livestock or human beings. Colin Berry, Antibes, France

I find the hysteria surrounding bird flu both laughable and disturbing. BSE caused the fatal VCJD in humans but killed less than 200 worldwide. SARS rapidly reduced in potency once it spread from human to human and never made it here (despite infecting Canada). There is no evidence that bird flu will mutate to facilitate human to human transmission, and even if it does it is unlikely to retain its 50% fatality rate (in bird to human transmisson). Also Tamiflu is designed to fight "normal" flu, not H5N1 and isnt even particularly good at that, so people may as well be panic buying Lemsip for all the good it will do them. In 2004, 34,500 Brits were killed in road accidents; 15,000 died from hospital acquired infections; 12,000 died from "regular" flu and 234,000 died from cardiovascular disease (figures from ONS). If a human flu pandemic occurs in my lifetime I know that there will be only one thing that will get me through it: luck. I will not live my life afraid of "ifs and buts" - it's too short. Darla Danya, London

Defra is able to advise farms, it's able to regulate them. But what about garden hens or small flocks living free range? We have three birds. Apart from the news, how will we know what precautions are needed? And should our neighbours have rights over management? After all, they are only a fence away. Julie Wadey, Winterton, North Lincs

There is another risk posed by H5N1 that western governments seem to be very quiet about: market risk. Ignoring (for just a moment) the human risk involved in a mutation of the virus, and assuming a continued fatality rate of approximately 50 per cent, if H5N1 does suddenly become easily transmissible between humans we face a potential financial apocalypse. Let's say it starts spreading in London.... Who would venture out to places of commerce - that is, would you go to the High Street? Would you go to the supermarket? Would you even go to work? Would you send your children to school, or would you find a place to hole up in the country and hide for 3 months? The impact on any economy of the sudden cessation of commerce would be staggering, and that is ignoring the impact of potentially millions of deaths. You, it does not actually kill millions, only threaten to for the economic impact to be felt. And you thought that a housing price retreat imperiled your finances. Brett Little, Boston, USA

Surely if the objective is to keep the two strains from mixing, flu shots should be mandatory for poultry workers worldwide, as that is where the mixing is most likely to occur. Rose Nicholas, Charlotte, NC, USA

Avian flu has killed 60 people in two years, hardly worthy of reporting, let alone as being the next pandemic. The meat of the birds affected by avian flu is not dangerous if consumed. The only people to be infected are those that spend a lot of time very close to infected birds. Why not leave the birds well alone, then no humans will be infected. If no humans are infected, human to human transmission would not be possible. No pandemic and no panic. Also, no need for the BBC to use the word 'lethal' in every sentence when reporting about avian flu. David Leslie, Crieff

For Pete's sake, hand your pet chicken a tissue and get on with your life. Avian flu will go the way of swine flu, SARS and the Millennium Bug. Kim Righetti, Upland, CA, USA

Ok so now I am confused. I think understand the devastating effects that bird flu does have on birds; but I don't understand why it is inevitable that his virus will mutate into a form that will easily be transmitted between human and that this mutation will be as dangerous as the current from. How many millions of humans has it been in proximity to for the past year without mutating? Why has it not mutated to be highly infectious to humans yet? If it does mutate in this way will it inevitably be deadly to a significant proportion of humans? I don't wish to sound callous on this last point, but I'd like to see comparisons with predicted deaths from bird flu and, say, all forms of death from tobacco smoking in similarly vunerable people. Mark Barratt, Twickenham

The Government should not be allowing such scare mongering to take place in the media. Quite frankly I think its sick to prey on peoples feelings like this. Stockpiling vaccinations is ridiculous - it is the pharmaceutical companies' way of making big money on the back of fear tactics. I would encourage people to get on with their lives and to not add energy to this fear machine. Kelly Martin, Gloucester

As I sit in a restaurant in Venice reading La Repubblica, the article on avian flu brings a very insightful thought to my head. I look at the maps, charts and reports of the slaughter of thousands of ducks on their migratory route through Turkey towards the Venice lagoon. Then I look out onto St Mark's square at the thousands of pigeons and the thousands of tourists from every corner of the planet. If we are not exaggerating the issue, surely these birds would give the possible mutant strain the perfect opportunity to enter the system and become a pandemic. Should we be culling the pigeons in St. Mark's square? Mark Wheeler, Madrid, Spain

So this year it's bird flu. A few years ago it was Sars. Last decade it was the flesh-eating virus. And a century or two ago it was the fulfilment of the Book of Revelations. Humanity always seems to think that it is on the brink of a major disaster, and yet here we stand. Perhaps the media and the scientists really have got it right this time round, but if so, they have only themselves to blame for destroying the trust we might have placed in them. Samuel Blanning, Southampton

The Government needs to begin stockpiling vaccines otherwise we could see a death toll of the proportions of a modern black death. This problem will not go away and immediate action is needed. Jack McDonald, Sunderland

I agree with Mark Wheeler of Madrid about his thoughts on pigeons. I have pointed this out to town hall officials, yet Blackpool town centre is overrun with these disgusting, filthy, disease-ridden birds. Worse, people are not discouraged from feeding them. We all know the flying potential of these street vermin and around Blackpool there are quite a few wild bird sanctuaries - one only a stone's throw away from the town centre. Shirley Bowen, Blackpool

The Government has responded to the growing threat in the correct manner. The only valid criticism would be that they may have placed their Tamiflu antiviral order with Roche a year too late - the order won't have been completely delivered until 2006. If the virus waits another year before it can be easily transmitted from human to human, then the UK will be one of the best prepared countries in the world. If not, the situation may be as bad, or even worse, as the 1918 flu pandemic. Toby Flux, Surbiton, Surrey

The Government should be more cautious about the possibility of H5N1 reaching our shores. One would think that they would have learnt their lesson with foot-and-mouth disease, the resulting cull of livestock and the debilitating impact it had on this country. If H5N1 does mutate we could be looking at a pandemic with thousands, even millions, of deaths. Or are we now just tempting fate? Personally I think it’s better to be safe then sorry but obviously the Government has other ideas. Shamir Kishan, Northampton

If the Dutch and the German farmers have been ordered to bring their birds inside in response to the World Health Organisation's concern about a pandemic; how can the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) continue to define this as a "low-risk" situation? This country spends too much time and money managing crises instead of preventing them. Are we merely protecting the 20p premium on free-range produce? And how will this balance out when people stop buying fowl altogether, because they feel the risk far outweighs the benefits? Which two million people will get vaccine doses when the demand could be for 50 million? There is no question in my mind that this Government is not doing enough to prevent what other sensible countries in Europe have deemed a potentially leathal outbreak. My family boycotted British beef for years, and will not hesitate to do the same for poultry should we not gain some assurance that precautions are being taken. Given the setbacks experienced by the beef industry because of the mismanagement of BSE, one would have thought that by now this Government would be doing everything to prevent similar crises. Lisa Cirenza, London

I see it is the usual Defra complacency: do nothing until disaster strikes and then destroy millions of innnocent creatures. Even after BSE and foot-and-mouth they never learn. Jo Dignan, Warrington

If avian flu was called "a new killer virus, for which we have no vaccine, with a potential 50 per cent mortality rate" perhaps people would be a little more concerned. The 50 per cent mortality rate is so far only bird to human. It is predicted that it is only a matter of time before H5N1 recombines with other viruses and develops the ability to pass from human to human. The wider the spread of the virus among birds, the greater the probability of it recombining and causing a pandemic. H5N1 is currently expanding and heading our way through Russia via migratory birds. We may need a good deal of luck as well as proper preparation and planning if we are to avoid a human (and economic) disaster. Jonathan Rawson, Warminster

The veterinary industry is doing all it can to prevent an outbreak in the UK and Europe. However, due to political and social constraints it has not been possible to confine the current H5N1 to its Asian origin. As a consequence we must now do all we can to prevent it spreading further and when the risk is thought to be high enough our government will impose all of the control measures deemed necessary. As for this being a knee-jerk reaction from bureaurocrats who don't know what they are talking about, it would do well to remind the general public that many scientists and government officials dedicate their lives to researching and preventing another horrific outbreak of influenza. Should this virus should mutate to a form easily transmissable from human to human it would be catastrophic. Regarding the vaccine put on order, this would be distributed primarily to health workers to mimimize their risk. Due to the rapidly evolving nature of the influenza virus it is necessary to develop a vaccine for the whole country once we know what we are fighting in order for it to be be sufficiently effective. During the vaccine development time anti-viral drugs will be administered to patients. Finally, influenza, unlike the potential risk from BSE, poses no health hazard through eating the birds, and thus boycotting poultry is not necessary. Any calls by the Government to house at-risk birds should be taken extremely seriously. Name and address withheld





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