It looks as if David Davis faces a huge task if he is to wrest the leadership of the Conservative party away from David Cameron, the youthful frontrunner. Polling by YouGov shows that of those Tory members who have returned their ballots, 68% voted for Mr Cameron and only 32% for Mr Davis. Of those yet to vote, the split is two to one. Liam Fox, who finished third in the leadership stakes, today declares his support for Mr Cameron. William Hague, too, has plumped for the Boy David. So far 109 Tory MPs publicly support Mr Cameron out of a parliamentary party of 196. The force is with him and it looks to be unstoppable.

After his performance at the party conference in Blackpool he was clearly the man to beat. “He has a star quality which is rare among politicians and almost non-existent in recent years in the Tory party,” we wrote. But it was important that he be tested under fire in a run-off with Mr Davis. That is now happening. And despite the shadow home secretary’s best efforts, Mr Cameron is standing up quite well. Mr Davis shaded the TV debate between the two candidates but failed to deliver a knockout blow. His strength, which is his experience, is also his handicap, for that experience embraces the years of being brushed aside by successive Blair governments.

Mr Cameron’s strength in that he represents a fresh and attractive face is also his potential weakness. There is a great deal that we do not know about him. Will his privileged background mean that he will be “too posh to push” the Tories into an election winning position? Could it be there is less to him than meets the eye and his unwillingness to engage on policy reflects a genuine lack of ideas? Would his elevation to the leadership follow the recent Tory tradition, most notably with Mr Hague, of destroying their most talented by promoting them too early? Is there a dark secret involving drugs that could yet be dragged out to bring him down?

Perhaps. But you rarely win anything without taking a risk. Mr Cameron, while insisting he is not offering anybody jobs, must surround himself with talent and experience. That should include Mr Davis, Mr Fox and Mr Hague — a formidable politician despite his troubles as party leader.

Mr Cameron will also need to launch a far-reaching review of policy. In the 1970s the Tories capitalised on the weakness of a Labour prime minister by developing well thought out and popular policies, notably on the economy. This has been the Conservative failure during eight years in opposition. George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, has set up a commission to develop tax policy but much more is needed. Mr Cameron has to demonstrate to voters that he is more than just a smooth politician. That means supporting Labour when the government is right, but it also means offering a genuine and attractive alternative when it is wrong. If he does that effectively, he could be the first Tory since Margaret Thatcher to overthrow a Labour government.