If this week’s elections in Washington are set to mark the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency, so things are becoming clearer about the passing of the political torch in Westminster. A few weeks ago the air was thick with talk of cabinet-level challenges to Gordon Brown. Blairites were said to be ready to unite behind the ABG (anyone but Gordon) candidate.

Now such talk has all but gone. John Reid, the home secretary, has abandoned hope of securing enough support among MPs or unions. Alan Johnson, the education secretary, was lacklustre at the party conference and has since executed an embarrassing U-turn on faith schools. David Miliband, the youthful environment secretary, has sensibly ruled himself out — last weekend’s leaked letter calling for green taxes managed to irritate the prime minister and the chancellor.

So, barring accidents, it looks like Mr Brown and he has been looking better. “Project Gordon”, the effort to make him appear rounded, risked being embarrassing. But it is starting to work. Last week he managed to be green, on the back of the Stern review on climate change that he had commissioned, but avoided the political cul-de-sac of promising large-scale green taxes. He pledged to focus next year’s spending review on making Britain safe from terrorism and got favourable coverage by leaning on the national lottery to fund an armed forces memorial.

“Project Cameron”, in contrast, is going through a sticky patch. The Tory leader’s gamble in putting his party behind the call for an inquiry into the Iraq war, described by Quentin Davies, the former Tory defence spokesman, as “absolutely crazy”, backfired. Voters know the Tories backed the war. They may not take kindly to this kind of manoeuvring. The lessons of history are suggestive; 50 years ago Labour failed to make capital over the Tory government’s Suez disaster.

Mr Cameron’s tactics on Iraq suggested opportunism. His political technique appears to rest on pandering to whichever audience he is addressing, coupled with gimmicky “love a lout” style attempts to grab the headlines. Leaders tend to grow in stature in the job but the Tory leader is suffering from a lack of gravitas. Whoever is prime minister in the next few years faces a formidable task. The post-Bush era is starting to come into view. In it there will be a serious job for Britain in securing a workable settlement for Iraq and the wider Middle East. There will also be a need for a hard-nosed approach to securing international agreement on limiting greenhouse gas emissions without damaging British business. Mr Brown will boast that he is standing up for Britain’s interests here. Mr Cameron’s greenery has stolen Liberal Democrat thunder but is fuzzy.

These are early days but it is also an important political moment. Tony Blair effectively endorsed the chancellor as his successor last week. The Tories have been comforting themselves with the belief that Mr Brown will be much easier to beat. That, on present form, is presumptuous.