Alice Miles
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Ministers must be wondering when fuel prices will start to bite. They are about 25p a litre higher today than in 2000 when the petrol protests meant parts of the country ran dry, and Gordon Brown was forced to promise to freeze fuel duty for two years to stem public anger.
Tax on petrol is higher now than it was then, with a far higher basic price and new duty increases - another 2p last month, with a further 2p rise due in April. These have helped to send the price of unleaded fuel soaring to more than £1 a litre, two thirds of which is duty and VAT. When people are having to calibrate how many times they drive to the supermarket or carefully count the cost of the school run (I am thinking of rural areas here, not those driving children across town to private schools), it is surprising that public anger at the latest rises has so far been so subdued.
This is partly because the price of petrol is widely (mis)understood to be a global problem beyond the control of the Government: it's something to do with the Middle East, and India and China, and war in Iraq, and the fact that we all do too much driving these days, isn't it? Well, yes and no. Yes, all those things have a lot to do with the price of crude oil. No, none of them has as much to do with the price of petrol at the pump as tax does. Of the pound you pay for a litre, production and delivery costs are 31p, the retailer takes about 4p, duty is 50.4p and VAT nearly 15p. The basic price of crude just makes it worse.
The high basic price is partly down to global demand. But speculators gambling on rising prices have also been pushing up the price of oil, making the near-$100 barrel a bit of a goldrush for banks and the Treasury. The price of oil is where big money and the interests of small people really collide.
For if it's bad for drivers, it's far worse for millions of people in rural areas who also rely on oil to heat their homes. Around 3.5 million households in the UK use heating oil instead of gas, the vast majority of them kerosene. If you think petrol has shot up in price, take a look at the cost of kerosene. It has risen from 17p a litre in the winter of 2003 to 42-44p a litre now (there is no duty on it, which keeps the price lower than petrol). Over the same period the winter fuel payment of £200 - paid to those with plenty of money, or who repair to the Canaries for the winter, as well as those with none - has not increased at all.
An average three-bedroom home that would have cost £500 or so to heat (and provide hot water for) through the winter four years ago will cost perhaps £1,200 now, a completely unaffordable increase particularly for many elderly people and those with young children at home all day and least able to afford it.
These are the people that the bankers wallowing in their fat oil profits should have in mind. About 25,000 older people already die in winter because of cold-related illness in England and Wales, a statistical blip known as “excess winter mortality” by the Office for National Statistics. Just how much worse the 40 per cent increase in the cost of oil this year will make that, in those homes running on kerosene (and many cook with it as well), God only knows. But round where I live, it is one of the main topics of conversation, with some families refusing to turn their heating on before December, and nobody daring to run it all day long.
Help the Aged launched a survey yesterday revealing that more than 2.5 million older people live or stay in one heated room in winter to keep warm and save on heating costs. Almost two million wear outdoor clothes indoors, a million huddle in libraries and shopping centres, more than one and a half million stay in bed under the blankets. It is a disgusting way to treat the elderly.
Given the extra money rolling into the Treasury from rising fuel duty on rising oil prices, couldn't some of it be directed towards those most in need of help with fuel bills this winter? Analysts argue that the increasing price of oil will have an environmental benefit, in making us all choose more fuel-efficient cars and homes in the medium term. But in the short term it is the elderly in particular who are most likely to live in poorly insulated old houses with ill-fitting windows and older, less-efficient heating systems. The speculators are not just playing with dollar signs on a balance sheet; they are playing with lives.
The story isn't going to end this winter, either. The International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks demand will rise by an average of 2.2 million barrels a day next year, compared with the 1.5 million-barrel rise in 2007, and unless the West cuts its own consumption the price of oil will continue to soar, hitting as much as $159 a barrel by 2030. You can see why the speculators are betting on it. The rate of increase in India and China is astonishing. In 2005 China consumed 6.6 million barrels of oil a day, second only to the US. By 2030, that figure will grow to 16.5 million barrels a day. By 2012, according to the IEA, we could be looking at a “supply crunch”. Sounds painful.
The pain will come early this year for people on modest incomes reliant on oil for basic heating and cooking. They will have to shiver through it. Some will die. When domestic heating prices soar in the US, people demand intervention from the Government. In the UK, we appear to think the government cannot do anything any more, and we don't even ask. I wonder whether the Prime Minister should find that even more alarming than he did the petrol protests.

Alice Miles has been with The Times since 1999. She began as a Parliamentary Sketch writer before becoming a columnist, writing mainly on politics and national issues such as education and health. She won Columnist of the Year in 2007.
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I have jus recieved a bill for heating oil of £451.14 compared with £368.08 in November.The Government fuel allowance is still £200 per annum as it was in 2003.I cannot afford to have my heating on all day but just 2hrs in the morning and 4 hrs in the evening.My wife and I are indoors during the day wearing outdoor clothes(and this is a mild winter so far).I hate to think what it is like if we have a normal English Winter.
Alan Chaplin, Diss,Norfolk, United Kingdom
cap the tax and only increase fuel oil rises as other european countrys are doing ?
its not rocket science or is this going to be a vote winner when unveiled
a sheedy, kyleakin, scotland
Some people think that the government's fuel tax + VAT doesn't effect them because they have no car but it is the reason for Britain's high cost of living for all. It increases the cost to everyone because everything has to be delivered to reach our home.
There are 450000 H.G.V.'s in Britain although this figure is rapidly decreasing. Each H.G.V., including the ones which delivers the heating oil, will send the government well over £100 per working day, a cost which is passed to the consumer. The recent 2p per litre tax increase added £5 extra to this cost.
H.G.V. operators are consumers, they and their families, eat, wear clothes and want to keep their homes warm. They don't want to take action.
Where is all this money is going?
How do we make Britain efficient again?
mt, Lanarkshire,
I would have had the money to install a new central heating system if Gordon Brown had not raided the pension fund so I only got two thirds of the pension I paid in for.
If he wants to return to power he should start looking at the interests of the British people and stop wasting our taxes on harebrained foreign aid and environmental schemes.
D Cage, Highworth, Wilts UK
You are all missing the point of the article. The poor and elderly do not have the spare money to install a new central heating system. Electricity is also an expensive fuel which is increasing in price. One litre of oil has about 10 kw of energy, so unless your electricity costs less than 5p a unit it would be even more expensive to run. Mains gas is just not available in the country.
Eric Downer, honiton, Devon
I thought Global Warming took care of that heating oil problem. According to the GW alarmists we really need more and higher fuel taxes to discourage us peons from burning more fossil fuel and thus releasing more CO2. Until these are enacted we will just have to suffer through these warm winters.
RH Robinson MD, Merced, California, USA
A mate of mine tells me he can fill up his 4 litre SUV in Dubai for under a tenner, so don't tell me that oil prices, or speculation in oil if you prefer, is the reason why we pay so much here.
Redcliffe, London,
Please explain to me how a speculator who cannot reduce supply by taking physical delivery of a commodity (i.e. any futures they buy to take advantage of a future price increase must be sold prior to expiry) can influence its physical price?
It's like arguing that people who bet on a roulette wheel make their choice of number more likely to come up isn't it?
Paul Anderson, London, UK
The present price surge in oil is partly, or largely, due to current political & financial problems. But in the medium let alone the long term the outlook is far more serious. We will shortly reach peak oil production, after which it will rapidly decline. The global consequences, particularly for transport & food production, do not seem to be grasped by government or business.
Dave, Wrexham,
Oil prices are not just high because of increasing demand, it's also because global supply has hit a ceiling, and will start to decline soon. Google "peak oil" to find out more about it.
Although the tax on petrol and diesel is high, it has the effect of insulating us from a proportion of the price rises, as the percentage increase due to rising oil prices is not so much. For comparison, see the figures in the story above for heating oil, which has seen a shocking rise. Anyway, as oil production declines over the coming years, starting pretty much right now, we are going to have to use less fuel anyway - it simply won;t be available, at least not at a price people can afford. So we'd better get used to it. You could even argue for higher taxes on fuel, with the money put into reducing demand and building alternative energy sources that do not depend on imports.
Mike
Mike Pepler, Rye, UK
"Given the extra money rolling into the Treasury from rising fuel duty on rising oil prices, couldn't some of it be directed towards those most in need of help with fuel bills this winter?"
Sounds sensible - but it will never happen. The countryside doesn't vote Labour,t so its views and sufferings count for nothing under Gutless Gordon!
Mike Bibby, St Albans, England -not EU
From reading this article you'd think that electric powered central heating boilers didn't exist. If the running costs of an oil system are as high as this article claims,its probably time for people to consider switching over.
Steve, Reading, UK
Yes, the price of oil for heating is a lot more important than that of petrol for the motorist. Alice is also right to draw a distinction between rural areas, where a car is often essential, from urban ones where often it is not. The sensible course would be to introduce congestion charging in cities and suburbs, using the proceeds to improve public transport alternatives; then freeze or reduce fuel tax to benefit country dwellers.
Barry, Wallington, UK
Personally, I'm outraged at the rising price of peat, coal and clarified butter. It's my right to heat my house however I want to, and the government should bend its knee to ensure that I am able to enjoy my backward technology until I am cold in the ground.
Neil, London,
Petrol at 35p a litre (production, distribution and retailer costs) is a good buy - its the crippling tax of 66p (nearly twice as much again)
which makes it so expensive. Its not surprising that the oil companies feel aggrieved when people blame them for the high price at the pumps - but the remedy is in their own hands. The filling stations should display the price in a more transparent way
"unleaded 35p a litre plus tax (66p)". Buyers would thus see more clearly just who is taking them to the cleaners. I can't think why they (the oil companies) don't do this - have they been leaned on ?
John Driscoll, Slough, UK
The people you dismiss as "speculators" are mostly refinery operators who are buying futures today so as to minimize the risk of crude going up in the near future.
Far from being "speculative", futures operations tend to smooth out the market. They allow buyers to lock in a guaranteed price today so that they can plan their business, and the allow sellers of oil to lock in a guaranteed price for delivery in the future so that they can plan their budgets.
Everyone does this type of "speculation", from farmers who sell produce forward, to miners, who sell base and precious metals, to exporters who buy foreign currency in the futures market.
But it's so much easier to come up with a sensational story by throwing around the word "speculator", isn't it. It's intellectually lazy and misleading to your readers, but isn't it so much easier than telling the whole truth.
Oh yes, and very sloppy and very British.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
Will people find their backbone and stand up and challenge this government? I seriously doubt it.
We've done it before, and we've been knocked down.
We tried fuel protests, what did we get, complained at by the very people we're trying to save money for.
We tried it for the poll tax, what did we get, the council tax.
We tried standing up with the miners, what did we get, no more pits.
No point standing up to be counted, we'll just get knocked down again.
Accept it, we have no backbone in this country any more.
Arthur, Newcastle,
The more signals we have that encourage people to break the fossil fuel habit, the better. If anything, tax on oil and its byproducts should be raised.
David McGregor, Fitzroy, Australia
Speculation premiums in oil pricing are indeed a serious problem and one that the government has, unsurprisingly, said nothing about as it is an indirect beneficiary. There is a crunch coming on UK fuel pricing. However, in the longer term, some solution will have to be found for rural heating. As you say, Alice, heating oil has no duty, only 5% VAT. 1000 litres of kerosene at 40p/l gives a mere £20 to the Treasury, and £400 to the oil suppliers. The problem is the base price of oil, which may go down a little for a while but will never be cheap again because of huge demand increases elsewhere. We suffer from very poorly built houses in the UK and one thing the government could do is sort this out for the poor. Generous free insulation upgrades for poor pensioners would help a lot, as would a means tested increase in fuel allowance to (say) £500 per year. Not everyone needs a fuel allowance but certainly there are many who do. We should not neglect them.
Colin, Shrewsbury,
I'm 37, work and my wife and I have children.
I'm due in court for the second time for non-payment of council tax totalling £1400.
I used to be able to stay on top of the CT but with the price of gas, electric, petrol and council tax going through the ceiling I cant do it anymore, something had to give and it was CT.
I need the car (1 litre Fiesta) to drive my wife to work and myself, we work far from home
I need to keep us warm when I get home
Council tax was the one that has to whistle.
Its not just the OAP's that are suffering.
So thanks a lot New Labour for sending the bailiffs in, clearing me out and quite possibly sending me and/or my wife to prison.
And to think I voted you guys in the first time around. Nice work.
Phill Barlow, The Wirral, England