Anatole Kaletsky
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The sick man of Europe has risen from his death bed. Will he now recover to be the strong man of old? Last week the European Union’s statistical service reported that Germany was the fastest-growing economy among the leading industrialised countries, expanding by 3.7 per cent in the year to December, compared with Britain (3 per cent), America (3.4 per cent), Japan (2.1 per cent) and 3.3 per cent in the eurozone as a whole. A decimal point or two is not in itself significant, but these figures suggest that Germany has emerged finally from its decade of postunification convalescence and may be returning to its traditional role as the main engine of European growth.
The implications would stretch well beyond mere economics — as is already evident from the renewed self-confidence not only in Germany’s business community, but also among its political leaders, especially Angela Merkel.
It is still far from certain whether Germany has genuinely recovered from the traumas of unification. A convincing case can be made that last year’s strong economic growth was due largely to special factors.
As Norbert Walter, the respected chief economist of Deutsche Bank, has noted, 2006 was a year of extraordinary effects for the German economy: “The boost from the Government’s investment programme; the stimuli from temporary introduction of an accelerated depreciation scheme; the boost to sales and Germany’s image from the football World Cup; and finally the effects of purchases being brought forward to beat the increase in value added tax to 19 per cent.” This year, by contrast, Germany will be hit by a potentially lethal combination of higher taxes, rising interest rates and a less competitive exchange rate. As a result, most economists expect a significant slowdown, and forecast GDP growth just below 2 per cent.

But as Dr Walter maintains, to characterise the difference between last year’s near-boom conditions and the much more challenging prospects for 2007 “by a somewhat lower average growth figure simply would not be doing it justice”. The issue is not whether Germany will suffer a bit of a slowdown this year, followed by an acceleration in 2008, which is what most economists are expecting. It is whether the 2006 recovery will prove to be a false dawn, to be followed by relapse into another long period of economic stagnation — the fate suffered by Japan after a similarly promising, but temporary, recovery in the mid1990s.
Whether Germany’s recovery proves sustainable or fizzles out in the year ahead is a vital question for the whole of Europe – and not just because of Germany’s weight in the EU economy or because economic conditions will have an impact on Mrs Merkel’s popularity and self-confidence. An even more important factor is Germany’s role as an economic model for other European countries seeking alternatives to the Anglo-Saxon approach to economic management. The latter has been in the ascendant since the mid1990s, when the German and Japanese economies deteriorated abruptly, while America and Britain forged ahead.
This divergence had many possible causes but one of the most significant — the different approach to macroeconomic policy — is now being subjected to a controlled experiment in Germany. The German Government imposed a huge tax increase on consumers last month without offsetting it by any easing of interest rates, as similar tax rises were offset, for example, in Britain in 1981 and 1993.
If Germany can pass unscathed through this fiscal squeeze, it will prove that macroeconomic policy does not really matter and that interest rates can be set by a supranational institution, such as the European Central Bank, that pays no regard to conditions within national economies.
If, on the other hand, the German economy suffers a substantial slowdown, key tenets of the single currency project and the ECB’s philosophy will be undermined. This is where the comparisons between Germany today and Japan in the 1990s become intriguing.
Germany and Japan have very similar economic structures, both dominated by famously efficient manufacturers and exporters but hobbled by nervous consumers, relatively underdeveloped service sectors and flat or falling property prices. Germany is now following a macroeconomic policy remarkably similar to Japan’s in the mid1990s, imposing a big tax increase on consumers after only one year of decent economic growth. By an uncanny coincidence, the three percentage point rise in Germany’s VAT rate this year is exactly equal to the increase in consumption tax introduced in Japan in 1997.
Moreover, the near-universal confidence in Germany that the VAT increase will have no lasting economic impact, is exactly in line with Japan’s experience ten years ago. Just before the big tax increase of 1997, Japan, like Germany today, had experienced a year of unexpectedly strong recovery, after its long recession of 1991-95. The quietly confident economic assessment issued by the Bank of Japan immediately after the increase in consumption tax could have been written by the Bundesbank today: “The economy continues on a moderate recovery trend. Despite the decline in demand which followed the consumption tax hike, the recovery trend in personal consumption does not seem to have been hindered.” And the overconfidence about Japan’s prospects in 1997 was not just a function of domestic political complacency. The International Monetary Fund’s forecast for Japanese growth, published only two months before the 1997 tax rise, was uncannily similar to today’s consensus forecasts of German growth. Japan’s economy was forecast to slow to 2.2 per cent in 1997 and then reaccelerate to 2.9 per cent in 1998.
The outcome was very different — Japan’s growth fell to only 1.4 per cent in 1997 and this slowdown was followed not by the expected acceleration, but by a GDP collapse of minus 1.9 per cent. Not only did this slump in economic activity represent one of the deepest recessions suffered by any advanced economy since the Second World War; it also triggered a financial crisis across Asia that brought down almost every government in the region.
There are many reasons why Germany is very unlikely to suffer a Japanese-style slump — not least because France, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and other European economies are being powered by Anglo-Saxon style house price and mortgage booms that will continue to provide orders for German exporters. According to the internationally dominant view on the impact of taxes, however, the Germans really will have proved that there is a Euro-Japanese model quite distinct from the Anglo-Saxon approach. All we can do now is wait and see whether German’s convalescence is followed by full-scale recovery or relapse.

Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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When nearly all central banks inflate, there is no way Eurozone can have a relatively strong currency and stay an area of production and growth at the same time.
The statements I read above never mention what the "Anglo-Saxon" world is "doing for a living". Indeed 46% of new US jobs since 2002 are created in housing related sectors. That sector is cooling down sharply.
Any predictions on Germany's growth are a waste of time, because that growth depends on many factors - not least on collapsing US markets and currency.
The US reminds me of the last years of Soviet-Union: Strong economic numbers, a lot of arms and strong rhetoric. "Sub-prime" is the keyword.
The financial empire is over-stretched and we will all suffer from the coming turbulences.
Peter Vernunft, Berlin, Germany
I guess we'll see if Germany is the first country to tax itself into prosperity. I dont think we need a crystal ball to predict this outcome. When you overtax consumers on goods, they buy less. When they buy less, profits go down and unemployment goes up. Adam Smith anyone?
Terry Zuckerman, North Bergen, New Jersey, USA
German tax hikes will do the same damage to their economy that they have done in Japan and everywhere else. I suppose the majority in that country still abides in a dreamland where German " engineering" is world class and can keep the economy competitive. It isn't and it can't. German companies are second rate to non-existent as global players, while firms across Asia make the leap to US style capitalism. A few more years of this combined with Europe's declining birthrates and even the most stubborn welfare-statists may finally change their tune.
Frank Friday, Louisville, Ky. USA
There was no mention of the tremblors from China and India and their increasing impact on the german economic machine. All the west is feeling the bite in profits and the pressure is rising. Chemicals and pharma (both generic and ethicals) industries worldwide and especially those in germany will be nailed. no matter how good the german engineering is (and the japanese are better), it won't overcome it.
robert, Illinois,
This is a German living in England for most of his life writing, and I must say "sclerotic" is hardly an accurate description of present-day Germany. Throughout the midst of economic lethargy, the German government continued its usual investments into public infrastructure, creating one of the best railways in Europe and allowing the former state postal service to become the world's largest logistics provider. Germany may have suffered from the infamous "shake-out" of globalization and the hurried integration of the East German economy, but this globalization shock has been, to a large extent, absorbed. Maybe this could remind the UK of its "Third Way" ambitions, and that it also has a European identity in taking seriously a variety of public services. That the "Quality of Life" may as well entail a society not only held together by the false promise of equal opportunity, but by actual justice in economic distribution.
Martin Schoenberg, London, UK
I cant offer any comment on the fiscal/monetary position, but I cant see how Germany could possibly follow the Anglo-Saxon way. We cant all be service economies and German engineers have been consistently better than the anglo-saxon. Besides, there is the forthcoming growth of the former eastern European states, and Russia; which transforming prospect you dont seem to mention.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Having read Malcolm Turner's comment I do not interpret it as mourning for the apartheid sysyem where 'everybody
knew their place'.
One might just as well ask of Mr Prosser "do you really like to see violence and poverty flourishing in today's South Africa?"
Curse those ' well-intentioned ' commentators with their pesky notions of law and order!
SF, Birmingham,
'Once everyone knew their place now no one does'
Yes thats right lets have people beaten tortured and kept in squalor both here and in Germany
A fatuous statement
maximillian, London,
Mr Kaletsky you talk as though a property boom (that is, asset price inflation) is a virtue. What a strange state of affairs when asset price inflation, deepening debt, balance of payments problems, and the massive growth in liqudity now come to be regarded as a sign of economic success! Whereas fuddy-duddy notions like trade surpluses, saving and investment are regarded as a vice, a sign of failure - 'sclerotic' being the usual epithet. Dear me, I know which side of the Atlantic/English Channel I'd rather be
Frank Lee, Hackbridge, surrey
Rather off point I know, but I consider Anglo-Saxon to be a racist term. If you mean the Anglo-American economic model, then say it. Anglo-Saxon is an archaic term frequently used by the French media as a slur. It does not and has never reflected the ethnic diversity of the British Isles or America
James, London, England
While German growth figures haven't been stellar in recent years, the country isn't exactly an economic basket-case.
Germany is the world's leading exporter, outperforming the showcase UK economy by more than 2:1. Official GDP per Capita figures now looks marginally better in the UK than Germany but commuting between the 2 countries on a regular basis over the last several years gives a completely different picture: Germany functions as a society; with an effective healthcare system, transport infrastructure and social-security system.
W.r.t. Malcolm of Alsager's observation about South Africa; I would more liken large parts of US and UK cities to the lawlessness of Jo'burg than any Germany city.
I'm afraid it's one of those stories being peddled by the UK press to reassure 'little Englanders' they never had it so good. As a frequent-travelling Englander, I can tell you that there is still some way to go before the UK enjoys the same living standards as its near neighbour.
Ad, Nottingham, UK
Is Malcolm Turner really mourning the dismantling of the South African apartheid system where everybody 'knew their place'? Curse those 'well intentioned liberals' and their pesky notions of equality and civil rights!
David Prosser, Oxford, UK
Anatole,
Any growth achieved through Euro-Japanese model is bound to be staggered and in stages over decades for even reasonable gains in economic factors and will inadvertently be bound by and dependent on successive tax increases. Much the same as Anglo-American model depends on an ever-growing demand of products and expanding growth market dictated by privatised market, the Euro-Japanese formula will depend on the expanding tax revenue and wisdom of public institutions. Thats where Japanese model will fail over long-term because it will simply stifle creativity and resilience. Although before that is realised generations will suffer its consequences.
Prabhat, UK,
Anatole
This is a very interesting article. However, I am afraid you totally neglect the recent welfare reforms in Germany which have an impact the labour market and hence growth. Would be interesting to know if they had somehting like that in Japan.
Dirk, London,
Germany is becoming a different place. I detect pronounced coarseness and lowered standards. I am a little sceptical of Germany's future from a social standpoint. Whether or not this is anything to do with the economy or not is a matter for conjecture. Formerly, Germany represented hard work and restrained leisure. The sight of villagers sweeping out bus shelters was not uncommon, a sort of robust statement of the common good. That is a dwindling vision. In South Africa we see the dangers, the actions of well intentioned liberals falling apart in practice. South Africa has become lawless and edgy on the back of indirection. Once everyone knew their place now no one does. In Germany there is a similar phenomenon. As with Britain and America, in Germany you have two peoples divided by the same language; the influx of Easterners is as socially destabilising as is mass immigration here. A happy worker needs a strong state, a sense of permanence, to flourish.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
Germany is export-led but "Made in Germany" is really the end of an assembly line where the manufacturing is done in Slovakia or Hungary and final assembly in Germany. The increase in VAT from 16% to 19% boosted Christmas retail sales but incomes are squeezed by a greedy State finding more and more reasons to appropriate incomes and the horror of the Miet NK which means gas and electric and water bills are not capped like rents and so a huge explosion in housing costs is forcing down real incomes.
Germany is sclerotic and tied up in regulation. The private sector exists simply to fund the State which has mushrooming deficits and record emigration of the educated and young to escape being crushed by Leviathan
TomTom, Leeds, England
You just can't take it ,can you?Europe doing so well,Germany in particular.Viva the euro!
Joe Dignan, Warrington, England