Anatole Kaletsky
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How can a small group of people get so rich so quickly without doing anything remarkably clever or even taking huge risks? This is the real question behind the storm that has blown up over the amazingly lucrative “private equity” business which now employs, by some accounts, almost a quarter of the British workforce.
The answer is actually quite clear, but it has never been heard from either the detractors or defenders of the private equity business. The real origin of what trade unionists regard as this industry’s excess profits is not the lack of regulation of private equity. It is the overregulation of pension funds, public companies and other investment institutions.
Trade unionists and old Labour politicians will never make — nor even understand — this argument. For them, demanding extra regulation to control the likes of Damon Buffini, the head of Permira, is the automatic response .
But the financial institutions that are making money by the truckload from private equity transactions have different incentives. If they want to defend this franchise, they will have to become simultaneously more straightforward and more sophisticated in explaining the sudden wealth it has produced.
It is not good enough merely to quote statistics about the broadly positive effects of private equity deals on profits, productivity and even jobs — impressive though these are. The most extensive study of what happens when private equity companies take over businesses has been conducted by the Centre for Private Equity Research at Nottingham University. The research shows not only that investors in these deals over ten years on average made profits 22 per cent above the market index, even after paying the seemingly exorbitant fees of the merchant bankers and lawyers. More surprisingly it shows that employment, after dipping by an average of 5 per cent in the first year after a buyout, rose by 21 per cent after four years; also that productivity almost doubled in this period, that product innovation increased and that companies showed evidence of more entrepreneurship. Most surprisingly of all, the Nottingham study — financed in part by City institutions — “found higher levels of employment, employee empowerment, and wages” after these deals.
But why could these gains be secured only by taking companies private, instead of just buying their shares in the stock market in the usual way? And why did the financiers and managers who arrange these buyouts make profits far in excess of the modest extra returns earned by the shareholders who put up the money? Both these questions have essentially the same answer.
Private equity financiers generate huge profits mainly because they buy companies on the cheap and then find ways of financing them even more cheaply. But how do the private equity entrepreneurs manage to swipe undervalued companies from under the noses of large corporate investors, such as pensions funds and other public shareholders? After all, private equity buyers normally pay substantially more for a company than it would command in open trading on the stock exchange.
This issue is really the nub of the private equity conundrum, and the explanation is surprisingly simple. The companies bought by private equity funds tend to be undervalued because investment institutions, especially British pension funds, have been told by regulators that they have too much money invested in the stock market and have been strongly encouraged or even forced to sell their shares in public companies. Instead, they have been urged to put their money into a combination of supposedly ultra-safe bond investments, spiced up with a sprinkling of “alternative assets”, of which private equity and hedge funds are the most prominent types.
The reasons for these regulations — supposedly to make our pensions safer — need not detain us, but their net result has been clear: In the past five years, as more and more pension funds have succumbed to this fad of deserting the stock market, many good companies have been sold for well below their true values.
Meanwhile, the pressure on pension funds to put their money into supposedly safe fixed-interest investments has pushed down interest rates and made the financing of private equity deals very cheap.
Moreover, this bias against stock market investment has not been confined to Britain. US regulators have pushed their pension funds in the same direction and, more recently, the bias against public equities has been given a further push by another powerful group of players — the Asian and Middle Eastern central banks.
China, Japan and other Asian countries now have more than $3 trillion of foreign exchange reserves, with oil-producing countries, including Russia, adding another $1 trillion. This enormous reserve accumulation has shifted control of a large slice of global saving from American and British private savers, who tend to invest in stock markets, to Asian and Middle Eastern bureaucrats, who are usually forced by law to invest in nothing but bonds and other “guaranteed” assets.
A natural consequence of this nationalisation of global savings has been to push down interest rates on corporate debt to very low levels. At the same time, ministers, embarrassed by the meagre profits on their huge reserves, have been demanding higher returns from their central bankers.
But how could this be achieved without exposing their national patrimonies to the “casino” of stock market investment? The obvious answer has been to follow American and British pension funds: ginger up their portfolios with spicier assets that look like safe bonds. Creative people in the financial markets have been happy to devise new types of investments to give their customers what they want, coming up with ever more complex financial instruments with esoteric names such as private equity mezzanine debt, credit default swaps and resettable payment-in-kind bonds. This has given private equity firms a huge pot of money to draw on.
A very similar process in the late 1980s launched the first generation of American private equity buyouts, when Wall Street created the “junk bond” market to satisfy the appetite of US insurance companies and building societies for equity-type profits when regulators only allowed them to invest in bonds, or at least assets that looked like bonds.
That first wave of buyouts was controversial and created some corporate scandals, but it had an electrifying effect on US business and arguably launched the productivity revolution of the next decade — as well as making unprecedented fortunes on Wall Street. With luck, something similar may now follow in Britain. There’s certainly no doubt about the fortunes.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Its all about incentives and talent. There isn't the incentive for public management to do anything too radial (like leverage up the business) their interests are best served by maximising their tenure, or making a fast buck on their options on the takeout when private equity arrive. There is also a woeful lack of talented people to run companies - private equity injects this talent into mundane businesses. These talented people are then incentivised to be agents of change.
Will , London, UK
Anatole Kaletsky
Sorry but the few amassing the riches in few days always reminds me of Enron or Dope dealers in Afghanistan or the war lord in Iraq. Pathetic is it not. But why fret. They make money the easy way we the hard way question of the IE EQ etc
We seem to be reading the wrong books.
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania
In my view this article confuses the specific (an undervalued company) with the general (the reduction in the proportion of UK equities in a pension fund portfolio).
The pension funds will be happy to reduce their holdings in UK companies by selling out to private equity buyers at a premium to the market price, but the success of the likes of Permira is surely in part due to their skill in determining when such companies are undervalued.
Tony, Mid-Devon, England
Anatole - your argument that the success of private equity is due to regulatory pressure on PFs is seductive but wrong. The success is due to the fact that with public companies, shareholders are dispersed, but with private companies, shareholders are concentrated. It is much easier to get consensus about necessary changes in corporate strategy in the latter case. In addition the incentive to make decisions is greater with concentrated ownership than with dispersed ownership.
John, London,
Anatole covers one of many aspect, as does Tim - to him I would just say that it would be much cheaper to hire new management rather than pay the standard 2+20 fees to a private equity firms. No one talks much about how expensive this form of management is, all the outrage is about high CEO salaries, but they pale in comparison to what the big PE firms earn their top managers. It is also much too easy to take public companies over, and often management gets in effect bribed by attractive terms of employment and cheap share options.
follow www.pro-gov.org
ProGov, London,
Great question, but a poorly constructed arguement. Yes the supply of debt feeds the market. But can you explain why those of us who actually work in this market are able to "buy cheap" in a competitive market? Not in the artcle. You might want to think about the impact of financial engineering all the way up the industry and then have another go at explaining why partners are paid so much. When thinking about performance, what about principle-agent issues?
John Gilligan, st albans,
The ni research sounded interesting, but who financed the research? Could we have a clear statement that the uni research dept isn't funded by the private equity industry?
Ah, having checked their web site: "The Centre for Management Buy-out Research (CMBOR) was founded by Barclays Private Equity Limited and Deloitte at the Nottingham University Business School in March 1986 to monitor and analyse management buy-outs in a comprehensive and objective way. "
Doesn't mean they are not independent, but it is a little dubious, or at least convenient.
Neil Murphy, cromer,
There is a simple asnwer to Anatole's question - a few people get very rich because a great deal of people are getting a fair bit richer. The public and unions are always fooled by this - look at the furore surrounding sat Jonathan Ross' £3m at the BBC. That's only a £1 a year from 3 million viewers, but it looks enormous on its own. PE creates value in a very simple way: underperforming businesses are restructured with properly incentivised management and a mnore effecient capital structure. However, the stock of underperfoming companies and good management teams is not infinite and so retruns will eventually normalise.
Tim, London,
The article is spot on.
damon buffini, london, uk
Tee-hee, well stated.
Here we see dull-witted regulation once again proven powerless to defy fundamental dynamics.
If you dump a rock in a stream, the water will find a way to flow around it. Metaphorically, the rock is regulation, private-equity is the channel around the rock, the private-equity fortunes are the froth and turbulence of the rushing water. New rocks on their way, no doubt.
The good news is that such capability exists. Without it we'd be in sclerotic risk-denial.
Long live capitalism!
John Dempster, London,
Right on the money - but the systemic rigging of world financial markets has far greater consequences than this relatively trivial
transfer of corporate ownership from broadbased shareholder-owned companies to broad-based syndicate-owned companies.
The implications of low interest rates, flat yield curves, the huge lie of valuations of discounted forward cash flows which is now intrinsic to all international accounting will have far far greater long term economic effects in my view.
Anatole - go for this please.
James Poole, retired
James Poole, London,
One reason private equity deals appear to create employment in investee companies is that those companies are often bought, with the collusion of management, just at the moment when public markets value them least but insiders can see better times ahead. It is no surprise that private equity firms offer management rich rewards for their collaboration.
Stephen Hargrave, London,
It's also, surely, that private equity have been accepting large risks by gearing up and have, so far, mostly been lucky. A lot of our pension savings are now invested in a way that is much riskier than just punting the money on equities. What pension funds really ought to do is to maintain a long-term balanced portfolio, but they generally prefer to follow the latest fad.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
More efficient capital structures do produce greater returns to equity (enhanced by the effect of tax shields) on their own.
They also have an implied effect. They force management to think about generating returns to pay the interest. Bankers keep managers honest.
Private equity houses are also more actively involved in performance managing their investments.
Traditional funds have not held the managers of the companies they invest to account. If they juggled portfolios in the short term less and scrutinised long term operational efficiency and customer focus more they would see better returns and might justify the "management" fees they charge.
Richard Boyce, HAYWARDS HEATH, UK
I enjoyed this article immensely. Certainly I found the argument regarding regulation and institutional bias incredibly insightful. However, I do not understand why private equity firms would not compete amongst themselves to the extent that target companies were no longer bought on the cheap?
Simon Potts, Calabasas, CA, USA
I love it! You have turned the light on for me and given the bigger picture. Thank you!
susan newman, West Hartford, usa
Christ, Anatole what on earth is this all about. How will this allow us ordinary geezers to make some dosh eh. . . . this is all a bit above my common ordinary head.
rod, Northallerton, UK
The key advantage of private equity is overlooked ie the tax efficiency of debt over equity, which has been exacerbated under Gordon Brown. No quoted company, no matter how cash generative, could gain shareholder approval to leverage up to the extent commonly applied in private equity deals. Levelling the playing field in terms of tax treatment of dividends versus interest payments would help inject new life into a moribund and indeed shrinking main market in the UK and put institutional investors on a more equal footing with private equity.
Sean Maher, London, UK
"The explanation is surprisingly simple"? I find your explanation is surprisingly simplistic. It's not that pension plans and insurers are restricted from participating by law, instead they are restricted by their own risk models and, to a large extent, by the incompetence of their highly institutionalised staff. The fact is that a pension plan has liabilities and cash flow requirements that HAVE to be met from their assets, while private equity firms only have to chase returns. They operate in completely different frameworks. Nor does this risk aversion explain poor pricing. Many firms carry a low valuation because they have a weak executive totally committed to filling their own pockets and egos. The idea that private equity firms are motivated by profit ignores the fact that corporate boards are also characterised by greed and spend most of their time inventing notional performance benchmarks and events to justify huge bonuses. The real villains are company directors.
Matt Winkler, London,
"With luck, something similar may now follow in Britain."..... And with Certainty? ..... Would that be 42 Lead?
amanfromMars, Seventh Heaven , Global Communications HQ
A very informative write-up, well explored with the fine-tooth juggleries of Stock market and their blips. But I would put my views with a different percept. Taking the cue from it....."Why some people get so rich, so fast without doing something remarkable? " If you delve into their psyche, or rather their business acumen and financial wizardy, it is observed that such men, well equally so for the females, do have an unsatiable hunger for money.The craving for big moolahs , compel them to take up venturesome and at times some foolhardy risks. They have a vision or a dream to follow... and in doing so they often turn monomaniac or workaholics in making fortunes.As for the blips or ups and downs in a stock market, my guess is as good as yours??? The market fluctuates and is as uncertain as London's weather.So may hay while the sun shines, and put up your hats or umbrellas while it may rain.State regulations on Pension and PF funds do acts as catalyst, and pushes up the Footsie index.
Sandy, New Delhi, India