Anatole Kaletsky
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As this may be my last column before Tony Blair formally announces his retirement, it seems polite to devote it to a critical appreciation of what the second-longest-serving Prime Minister in modern British history has, and has not, achieved during his ten years in power. But courtesy is, alas, no longer in the national character of modern Britain. It therefore seems appropriate that the two politicians most responsible for the brash, unrestrained, materialistic society that is Britain today have both been hounded out of office without so much as a word of thanks from the people they helped to liberate and enrich.
The almost unanimous reaction to Margaret Thatcher’s departure in 1990 was “good riddance” and the same phrase can now be heard almost everywhere about Tony Blair. Instead of the crowds “screaming for one last encore” that Mr Blair’s star-struck spin-doctors had imagined, all we hear are howls of hatred and contempt.
For example, I overheard a conversation this week on a train from Oxford to Reading. Two semi-drunken squaddies, apparently just returned from Iraq, reflecting on the front page of an evening paper with a big smiling picture of the Prime Minister at his tenth anniversary celebrations: “That f***ing bastard, what’s he got to grin about? He nearly got us killed for no reason anybody can think of” – followed by phrases that cannot be printed in a family newspaper, even in this vulgar age.
Since nobody seems to care much about Mr Blair any longer, this may not, after all, be the right moment to survey his career. To do that properly will require more time and historical perspective, just as it did after Mrs Thatcher resigned. The only question of interest today about Mr Blair’s departure is what it will mean for the man who finally takes control of Britain, perhaps next week: Gordon Brown.
For Mr Brown, there is good news and bad in the contemptuous, unsentimental way that Britain is dispensing with the services of T. Blair. The good news is that Mr Brown, once he actually becomes Prime Minister, will almost certainly be welcomed by the voters, instead of suffering the slump in popularity predicted by the hypothetical opinion polls that got so much publicity in the past few months. The even better news is that Mr Brown will arrive at No 10 with more freedom of action and fewer rash promises made to interest groups within his own party than any prime minister in living memory.
I have often predicted in this column that Mr Brown would achieve the “orderly handover of power” that he had always hoped. And I argued, in contrast to other political commentators, that the so-called “failed coup” by the Brownites last September was, in fact, an egregious Blair blunder that Mr Brown turned into a tactical masterstroke. But even I did not expect that the Blair-Brown transition would be as smooth and uncontroversial as it has turned out. Mr Brown has gained enormously from this orderly transition. The avoidance of any serious internecine conflict in the past few months has been beneficial for Mr Brown not just because appearances of disunity are unpopular with the public. In fact, voters are usually less “shocked” than media pundits when they discover that politicians are sometimes prone to argue among themselves. What, then, is the real benefit to Mr Brown from enjoying a “coronation” instead of a genuine contest?
To ensure victory in a closely fought election, Mr Brown would have been forced to make all sorts of public promises to Labour activists, trade unions and special interest groups – and perhaps most damagingly to Mr Blair himself. But as things have turned out, he has given absolutely no hostages to fortune before taking power. He has not even had to cut any special deals with other ministers and backbenchers. He does not have to cope with a powerful and intrusive Chancellor threatening to break down the door to No 10. He does not have to worry, like John Major, about Mrs Thatcher’s backseat driving, nor manage a Cabinet full of hostile “wets”, as she did throughout her first term. He does not have to kowtow to trade unions like James Callaghan, nor beat off challenges from powerful figures within his own party like Harold Wilson – the list could go on and on.
The upshot is that Mr Brown has more freedom of action than any politician in living memory at the start of his prime ministerial career. The bad news is that Britain will expect him to use this freedom of action – and do so quickly – to dissociate himself from the blunders of Mr Blair. If Mr Brown fails to repudiate Mr Blair's errors, his honeymoon with the voters will be a very brief one – and he will soon find himself blamed for everything that went wrong in the Blair decade, while sentimentalised memories of the charming former prime minister will get the credit for most of the things that went right.
The most important and obvious of these blunders is, of course, Iraq. Now that Mr Brown has finally won his long-awaited prize – and has won it, crucially, without making public promises to protect Mr Blair's legacy or reputation – he no longer has any excuses for silence or ambiguity on Iraq. More specifically, he must repudiate Mr Blair’s subservience to the foreign policy of the Bush Administration, most obviously in Iraq, but also in Iran, Israel and Palestine.
Even if operational and diplomatic arguments dissuade Mr Brown from immediately announcing a date for the withdrawal of British troops from Iraq, he can and must distance himself from Mr Blair’s obsequious attitude to US foreign policy. While Mr Brown may be reluctant, like every British prime minister before him, to break with America, he does not have to do that.
Luckily for him, all he has to do is break with one man, who may still be bear the title of President but is now virtually powerless, isolated in the White House and despised by his own people. By detaching himself immediately from President Bush’s foreign policy, Mr Brown would not be turning against America, but doing just the opposite. He would be respecting American public opinion and falling into line with almost every serious politician in Washington. Most importantly, he would be allying himself with the next president of the United States, whoever he or she may be.
Repudiating the Bush-Blair foreign policy legacy is now the top priority for any American politician who wants to run for president in 2008. The same will be true in Britain when Mr Brown has to face the voters in 2009.

Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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So Mr Kaletsky thinks that Brown has no baggage ? A wry smile is in order.
What makes Mr Kaletsky think that foreign policy agitates the Brit electorate ? It is FAR more concerned with appalling administration of public services (and actually almost everything else government touches), immigration, crime and the rising tax squeeze.
Brown is up to his neck in the domestic agenda, and the electorate well knows this.
Much of the Brown "team" will be tired and failed politicians, unpopular with the electorate and associated with Blair. The remainder will be Brownites, a peculiarly weird and unattractive lot.
But dream on Anatole.
P. Stewart, Cranbrook, UK
chancellor McMillan takes over from Eden after Suez, having agreed to everything at the time but when in office claiming "nothing to do with me", No General Election
what is the difference?
Brown must disociate himself from Iraq for domestic political reasons and to get Britain into a position to be supportive of the next US President who will be in office by the time Brown is going to the country in 2009.
All present Democratic candidates demand withdrawal by next year. Of the original European supporters of the war the Dutch, Italians, Spanish, Portugese and Norwegians have all gone home, the Danes leave in August, having all Brits out by April 2008 before the next local elections is possible.
Dan Smith, Oxford, UK
As an American, and a Republican, I would recommend to Mr Brown that he hold our current administration at a discreet distance. The current administration I can only describe as diseased (politically and intellectually), and I have confidence that our clumsy system will find a cure in the next election.
Having said that, I would also say that I hope the next adminstration in the US will have sense enough to abandon tradition, and refuse to listen to advice from the UK with regard to problems caused by that seriously flawed empire. Trying to preserve a country invented by some drunkard at the Colonial Office is not worth the blood and treasure invested in it.
Thomas Peters, Santa Clarita, California
President Bush is not despised by ALL of his own people. He's despised primarily by liberals who believe liberal lies. Those with logic know there were valid reasons to go into Iraq, and there are valid reasons to see this conflict through to the establishment of a stable democratically elected Iraqi government.
Nancy B. Krupp, Millbrook, USA / NY
'Reached an agreement with the IRA?' 'Reached an agreement?' Sold out, capitulated, surrendered, given them exactly what they wanted, is a more accurate description of Blair's 'triumph' in Northern Ireland. And Thatcher's cries of 'the terrorists will never win' now look pretty hollow. The terrorists always win.
Richard, Rolvenden, England
You might of pointed out to the two "Squaddies" that but for Blair they would stand the risk of being killed in Northern Ireland as well as Iraq and Afghanistan. The Conservatives would not have reached an agreement with the IRA and brought peace and they voted for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
John Palmer, Chippenham, Wiltshire
I wish your new leader well as he takes on the mantle of leading the UK for the next several years. As an American, I completely agree that breaking with Mr. Bush's war in Iraq is not tantamount to breaking with America. This war has been a very dreadful mistake for both our nations.
Mindful of the link of history which binds our nations together, I look forward to seeing how the change in leadership in the UK impacts our president's conduct of this war and look even more forward to the day when he also leaves his office to make way for a new leader. Someone who hopefully will have some idea of how to lead us out of the Iraqi mess in which Mr. Bush has mired us.
Todd Feigenbaum, Woodstock, IL, USA
R. Kahn, Washington, D.C. - Please take note of the horrendous cuts in defense spending that took place on Mr. Blair's watch. So much for the competent and robust military.
Chickie, New York, NY,
I can only hope Mr. Brown follows your advice. Unfortunately Blair never really understood the States. His American Dream was sucking up to Bush and gaining the low hanging fruit of the Bush family largesse. America was a chance to update and fatten his post-prime ministerial rolodex. Just watch and see the speaking fees, corporate & foundation directorships, jobs for the kids that wukk come Blair's way. To Blair's way to thinking if America is good for him, it is good for Britain (note the priority). Brown will hopefully reverse this equation.
With good old fashioned Scottish probity as a restraint, I'm hoping Brown will have a totally self-interest free special relationship. Instead of making the mistake that Bush Family=America I hope he will cast his net wider and seek out prominent Americans from all areas.
Rosemary Grey, New York, New York
Kaletsky conveniently ignores the fact that Brown has been complicit in everything that Blair has done, backing the Iraq adventure, for instance. He has also blocked any move Blair may have had in mind to reform the welfare system and has poured enormous sums of taxpayers' money down the nearest drain. If Kaletsky really believes that Brown will be welcomed by the voters and that his premiership heralds a new dawn for New Labour then I suggest he spends a few days in a darkened room with an ice pack clamped to his head. I am very fond of dear Anatole, but ye gods he does have a talent for getting things wrong nearly all the time (dead cat bounces on the Stock Market included).
IAN GIRVAN, Dunkerton, Bath BA2 8BA, Somerset, England.
Elsewhere, on other web sites and at The Times blog people are crying our for change and return to Democracy. The Brown entry into No.10 is not what they want. They demand a change and they demand democracy. This can only come about by a revolution and the Army has the right and the power and The Queen on its side to allow this system to be brought to a close and for DEOMCRACY to be installed in Britain and especially England.
John , Lisbon, Portugal
So the unanimous reaction to Blair's departure is "good riddance" is it? How is then that the only recent poll on this matter (Communicate Research for the Independent) shows that 61% believe Blair has been a good PM overall and only 36% believe he has been a bad PM? The figures for Labour supporters are 89% and 10% respectively.
Mr Katelesky really should not extrapolate from his own prejudices.
Stan Rosenthal, Lindfield, West Sussex
Anatole Kaletsky clearly subscribes to the Macavity school of thinking regarding Gordon Brown. But unfortunately Brown actually was there constantly - in Cabinet, in office and in Government since 1997. Feeble excuses as - 'he no longer has any excuses for silence or ambiguity on Iraq' do not wash. In the eyes of the law, silence is assent and Brown's few statements on the subject have actually always been affirmative of Government policy.
Nobody but those with the recollective powers of a goldfish will buy the concept that Brown will effectively parachute into office from a distant planet, free of all association and responsibility for the last 10 years policy and actions. Any parallel with John Major is pretty weak but what is shared is that any putative immediate faint surge of popularity would soon fall away. Particularly when you consider the moot point of which of the two politicians has more 'charisma'.
Alan Tayler, Wivelsfield, England
Being just a normal, average, bloke,and now a pensioner, I cannot, after much searching, find one single act by the Noo Labor government which has been to my advantage. I read that the richest in our society, and all those who are pretty well off , our members of Parliament for example, have been enjoying vast increases in their wealth. I will not be voting today, I will not be voting in the General Election, because there isn't a political party in the country which gives any consideration to the condition of retired people, almost 20% of the population. The worst days work was when Britain signed the Treaty of Rome, a pox on both of their houses.
Phil de Buquet, Newport, England
Brown must make bold decisions in the first month in Office , something similar to what he did in 1997 (granting independance to the Bank of England) , this will put him in comfortable seat to run the country . Withdrawal from Iraq will illustrate his ambitions and highlight his strenghts politically.
Marat Omarov, Hastings, East Sussex
Mr Kaletsy is listening to the sound of his own hand clapping. Americans do not "universally despise" the President, and the current polls are lower for the "serious politicians" that he admires than they are for President Bush. The British think they can delude themselves into a complacent foreign policy, appeasing the enemies in their midst. So European of them! No need to actually support a competent and robust military, when they know the United States means to defend freedom at our own cost.
Thank you Mr Blair. You will be seen to have gotten it right, hopefully not too late.
R. Kahn, Washington, D.C.
Couldnt agree with you more. If Brown is to succeed as PM he must signal clearly and hopefully without offending the US, that Britain will soon be out of Iraq. It is the single most important issue. Nothing else he does will make any difference if he continues to let Britain to drift on with the present Iraq policy.
JAMES GALLAGHER, London, UK
I do not agree with the author abut Gordon Brown since both Brown and Blair are both new Labour and they both subscribed and voted in Parliament for the Iraq invasion. Brown has introduced several stealth taxes since his 10 year tenure as Chancellor icluding a pension raid, so the only honourable thing for him to do if he becomes Prime Minister is to hold a General Election immediately. The mandate to govern was given to Blair not Brown at the last General Election so Brown should seek the same mandate and find out what the British voters would think of New Labour now.
He maybe too frightened to hold a General Election for fear of the outcome.
David, Lymington, UK
Won ? " Won the long awaited prize " no way has he won it ! Brown has been sitting there glowering & pressurising Blair for years to hand over to him.
The only way he agreed [ at the last minute ] to Iraq , was to keep his job.
I feel it's only respect for his party that has stopped TB calling a general election, he must have been tempted , after all the disloyalty his " friend " Gordon has shown.
That would have really scuppered GB chances of getting to number 10
Maggie Millington, Brittany, France
The turning point for Blair, in my opinion, was 9/11. Blair worked overtime to milk international publicity from that awful tragedy and his 'Unqualified Support' for George Bush meant that Blair was 'In Debt' to George Bush from that moment on. As for Brown, he was party to every action that Blair undertook. The Blair years have been bad for most of us and completely tragic for the families of troops lost in the debacle that is Iraq.
Tony Makara, Manchester, Lancs
What has Mr.Kaletsky in mind for 'Israel and Palestine' ?
Who is to be benefited and who disadvantaged? And why?
Answers Mr Kaletsky please. Don't just drop hints of things YOU would like done by others.
Bob, London,
This man is obviously delusional.
Brits see through Brown and the 'Brown Bounce' is the product of wishful thinking for Browns acolytes.
We detest a stitch up - which is exactly what we've got.
Brown may try and cherry pick from the last ten years but that's utterly unacceptable.
Either he is Blair's right hand man and fully responsible for everything this government has done or he's entirely ineffectual and all he's done for ten years is conjure up stealth taxes.
martin carnaffin, nottingham, notts
Growing up as a Black boy in colonial Rhodesia I was awed by what our books and teachers said was British might. I was simply great stuff. Now when I see the British Prime Minister play the American poodle "because association with america opens all doors" or something like that, I cant help a little chuckle. Its probably time Britain joined the African Union!
Tim Moyana, Harare,
I echo the sentiments of the 2 semi-drunk squaddies-and I'm sober.
Peter Day, Doncaster, Yorkshire
As usual, Kaletsky writes more about himself than the supposed subject -- so providing v. little useful or interesting enlightenment.
Alex Dryden, Ottawa, Canada
I am not at all convinced that there will be any automatic bounce in the polls when Brown takes over. When John Major became Prime Minister it had the feeling of a new government, the first in more than a decade. But that is because he had been Chancellor for only a year, and not at the heart of Thatcher's government throughout. Kaletsky is right to point out that Brown will have some freedom of action - and much more so if he ever leads Labour to victory at the polls. If he uses it with rapid and popular moves he may achieve a bounce. But his latest suggests he has rather lost his touch in that regard, just as people are starting to see through the idiocy of his first budget. If he wants a bounce, he has to earn it.
Quentin Langley, Woking, UK
Mr Brown's domestic strategy ALSO needs repositioning. He now has a unique opportunity to prioritise any uncomfortable " rising inflation" messages emerging from the wings. He should publicly back the Bank of England's move for large hikes in interest rates in the coming months instead of supporting the "steady as she goes " style messages, which have been seen coming from the lips of the present Prime Minister.
I would then agree with Anatole that a robust and specific record in both domestic and foreign policy stability will be followed by a steady opinion poll reversal in Labour's favour well in time for a favourable spring poll in 2009
William Grierson, Kimpton, UK
Brown will not have any sort of honeymoon at all. He is tarred by the same brush and worse.
John , Lisbon, Portugal
Are we simply going to forget what Brown has done to pensions and income through his tax and spend policy whilst at No:11. I,ve voted Labour all my life but will not do so with Brown in N0:10 at the next election. This man has robbed the poor and enriched the rich.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire
God help us when Brown comes to power. This is the man who sold a huge amount of our gold reserves at the bottom of the market despite clear advice to the contary. This is the man who has decimated our pensions. This is the man who has produced a labarinthine means tested society that results in many of the benefits being worth less than the costs of processing them. This is the man who has perfected the stealth tax and made the country deeply suspicious of politicians of whatever shade.
Newton, Liverpool, England
there's a lesson there - making "arrangements" or cutting deals can be seen as a way of diluting responsibility - something that actually weakens one authority I personally was repelled at the corporate sponsership of the last democratic convention in the US.
It really rubbed me the wrong way.
-on a different tack - consider the characteristics of cults, their insularity, paranoia and heirarchies and they are by definition outsiders but sometimes I think , as the complexity of the systems grows we remain blind to the cults in the center of our societies.
In times of stress especially , they can exersize inordinate power and while we stop the one - the process continues
Glenn Schaefer, Holbrook, Ny USA
I for one will not welcome the paymaster of this odious government. Brown cannot distance himself - he paid for the last 10 years of Blair with our money and in the full knowledge of what was done.
Bruce, UK, Malvern,
The current situation in Iraq is completely under the control of Miitant Islam and will remain so. Blair and Bush have been reduced to the rank of mere pawns in the manoeuvres of the Islamic hordes towards world domination. The immediate task of the UK/USA governments should be to substantially increase their military, forces of law and order, and border controls to ensure the protection and wellbring of their citizenry. Brown would be well advised to immediately direct his talents to these over-riding urgencies.
Robert Carmichael, Kirk Ella., East Yorks.,
Today is local election day and no one has done more to castrate local goverment than Brown with his centrist control of the purse strings. The local electorate have become impotent with no say in what actually goes on and no responsibility being taken or truth spoken by the civil servants following orders from above.
That is the real legacy of the last ten years: " We think that we are doing the right thing and take no responsibility for any mistakes that we might make."
Matthew Bramall, Wadhurst, Sussex UK
Brown will be no different than Blair/Brown. On all the big issues - Iraq, privatisation, greedy, greedy - it is full steam ahead. The Labour Party is now made up of a council of wimps and will do nothing to stop this programme because of the very simple fact they would be a bunch of nothings without it. They would have to fight it out in the job market like the rest of us. People are not ungrateful for no reason other than being grumpy, they are ungrateful because they can see that the cost of living has shot up, life is rougher and worse for many, and our great and good and the rich have just been enjoying an orgy of decadence and having a laugh.
Bob Macdonald, London,
Brown is tarred by the same brush as Blair. Worse, when the flack has been flying so has Brown. Whoever labelled him McCavity was spot on. He will have to speak in language everyone understands now, no more obfuscation with reams of dubious facts and figures spat out at machine gun speed. I for one am not at all sure he can do it.
B. J. Carroll, Hong Kong, China
What honeymoon?
Richard, Worcester, England