Anatole Kaletsky
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A month ago I wrote on this page that Britain was facing an economic disaster and that time was not on our side. Some regular readers found this gloom surprising, since Panglossian optimism – especially on the British economy, on property prices and on sterling – had long been a hallmark of my work.
What such critics failed to notice was that my anxieties were very different from those of the Jeremiahs I had been attacking for most of the past decade. Unlike the financial pundits and Tory politicians predicting national ruin in every blip of the unemployment figures or trade statistics, worldwide depression in every judder of the stock markets and an apocalyptic “day of reckoning” in every headline about record of mortgage debt, I gave a warning last month about the opposite risks.
The danger, in my view, was not a weak economy but an overstrong one. It was not falling retail sales but a high street bonanza. It was not collapsing asset prices but an even bigger property and stock market boom. A month ago I was so worried by the dangers of severe economic overheating that I accused the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee of falling asleep on the job – and even suggested a few days later in the business section of The Times, that Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank, might be “guiltier of high treason than Guy Fawkes”.
Today I want to withdraw this indictment. Not because inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, fell back last month to marginally below 3 per cent. Nor because some of the recent statistics on house prices, high street sales and employment have been slightly weaker than expected. The reason for withdrawing my imprecations against the Governor is that the quarterly inflation report that he presented yesterday on behalf of the MPC made it crystal clear that most of the risks to inflation “are on the upside”, that a further increase in interest rates to 5.75 per cent is almost certain and that interest rates will keep rising beyond that until inflation is brought back to the 2 per cent official target – and then anchored securely at that level, despite all the upside risks.
Before discussing the importance – and difficulty – of achieving this objective, let me explain the inflation report’s immediate significance for anyone more interested in the cost of next month’s mortgage. While the MPC has always said that interest rates are set one month at a time and firm commitments are never made about moves in the future, the latest inflation report – and Mr King’s comments on it – make it almost inevitable that the MPC will announce a further rate rise, to 5.75 per cent, either at its meeting in early June or in early July.
This can be stated with confidence because the inflation report includes charts and tables showing what would happen if interest rates rose to 5.75 per cent from July onwards – and concludes that, even with interest rates at this level, inflation would be more likely to remain above the 2 per cent target than fall below.
Only one conclusion is possible if we combine this statistical analysis with the unequivocal peroration at Mr King’s press conference yesterday: “The Monetary Policy Committee is determined to meet the 2 per cent target and will take whatever further action may be required to do that.” If the Governor expects anyone to pay attention to his promises in the future, this must surely mean that, in the absence of unexpected shocks that suddenly reduce the pressure on prices between now and the end of June, interest rates will rise in the first week of July to at least the 5.75 per cent level assumed in the inflation report.
Having dealt with the immediate prospects, the more important question is what may happen after July – not just to interest rates and inflation but to the British economy. The Bank assumes that inflation will fall quite sharply between now and early 2008, as last year’s steep rises in fuel and utility prices give way to stability and even some cuts, while other costs generally remain well contained. It is notable, however, that even on the favourable assumption that nonenergy prices remain stable, inflation will be rising again from the middle of 2008 onwards, which is why at least one further tightening of the monetary reins is almost certainly required.
But the problem that worried me a month ago, and which apparently now perturbs the Bank too, is whether it is reasonable to assume that nonenergy prices will remain generally stable, as they have been for most of the past decade. Several of the restraining forces on inflation remain very powerful. The most important of these, according to the Bank, are productivity growth and business competition, immigration of both skilled and unskilled workers and low-cost competition from China and other developing countries.
There are signs, however, that other disinflationary forces are starting to dissipate. The high streets and industries of Britain may be more intensely competitive than they were in the 1970s and 1980s, but surveys show that shopkeepers and business managers now feel more freedom to raise their prices than at any time in the past decade.
Most wage deals are still struck in a 3 to 4 per cent range, but trade union bargainers and personnel managers are increasingly aware of the gap between the 2 per cent official inflation target and the much higher inflation perceived by ordinary workers. Meanwhile, the influx of immigrant workers may be peaking, while the cost of Chinese imports is starting to rise as China revalues its currency. To make matters worse, the CPI statistics now targeted by the Bank inherently understates inflation because it excludes housing costs and gives more weight than the old retail prices index to expensive durable goods, such as cars and computers, which are falling in price, but which most people buy only rarely.
Most importantly, there is the outlook for global economic growth. By late 2008, with America emerging from its present economic slowdown, with Europe shaking off this year’s higher taxes and with Asia continuing to experience explosive growth, the entire world economy will probably be enjoying a coordinated boom of a kind not seen since the end of the last decade.
Under these conditions, most of the serious risks to inflation must surely be on the upside. The Bank of England says it has understood this message. Now it must show that it really means what it says.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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I agree with everything Anatoly said in his article, I just think that inflation is not such a big problem. These days inflation is mostly a problem of asset bubbles, and the central banks actions are to control it. This was the case one or two years ago when the FED felt obliged to thighten interest rates to reign in the rampant housing market in the US. The same thing is happening in the UK right now. In fact we saw the first signs today that further tightening from the BoE seems to work as this month mortgage lending decreased. Although still high it shows first signs of stabilising. I expect the housing market to stabilise with only a few more tightening moves.
Whats more there are no signs that inflation-expectations are out of control. It is not the banks job to control whatever other irrational excuberance exists in the markets today.
Alfred, NJ, USA
Alfred, Jersey City,
Anatole has been right over the past few years to be more bullish than most observers. In this article I also believe he is right - but there is a missing conclusion .Given this newfound BOE determination what impacts are there for asset pricing going forward? It seems to me that we cannot have undervalued money relative to assets followed by a more balanced place for money without a pretty dramatic effect on pricing of assets. This is because perceived value of assets has been driven higher in an enviroment where this balance has been lacking.Any readjustment to the balance cannot come without a painful downward adjustment in all asset pricing. This painful adjustment is almost Pavlovian since without it people simply don't get the message the music has changed.It was ever so through every cycle and will surely be the same again. Given this whats next for stocks and housing?
franc petersen, london, england
Anatole,you have clearly been right to keep prodding the BOE, and they have clearly been far too cautious, resulting in many more people falling into a debt trap than would have been the case if they had acted more forcefully earlier on. (Unfortunately, they prefer the drip drip approach to torture!) However, there is another economically important issue which you should also be making a fuss about and that is the massive and growing unfunded pension liability of the public sector. While public attention has been focussed on the ever growing current spending on the Health Service, now at £92 billion a year, and on the Chancellor's smash and grab on our private pension schemes, the current cost of the unfunded pension liabilities of public sector workers has largely been ignored - except by Martin Broughton, president of the CBI, and chairman of BA. Isn' it time that public sector workers joined the real world and were forced to set up their own private pension schemes?
Sally Faiers, Brentwood, Essex
I think it's wrong to just focus on the BoE's interest rate decisions when trying to understand the booming UK economy when fiscal policy has hardly been responsible: we've seen a huge increase in government spending in recent years. It's bad enough when you look at government borrowing as it is presented on budget day, but when you consider the £500bn or so of off balance sheet expendicture on top of that, it paints an alarming picture. Brown's tenure as PM maybe a short one as boom does (inevitably) turn to bust.
Oliver Pawley, the sticks, Devon
Brown packed the MPC with doves, so he could get to be Prime Minister before the inevitable pain that results from his massive spending of taxpayers' money on jobs that increase his client voters but add not one jot to the UK's economy.
Don't blame Mervyn King. The pain will have to get a lot worse before we get back to economic reality. As always, "it's the poor wot pays". Still, at least we now have the consolation of hearing how 'umble Mr Brown really is. Pass the sick bowl please.
Tony G, Harrogate, UK
The Monetary Policy Committee is determined to meet the 2 per cent target and will take whatever further action may be required to do that. Well he would say that wouldn't he.
Sticking with the cliches, actions speak louder than words, and the MPC's actions over the last two years have been obviously imprudent. While the bank should have been repeating the actions of Eddie George's MPC in 1997, when rates were raised in four consecutive months, they adopted a slow wait and see policy.
It remains to be seen whether the MPC now becomes more aggressive, but I do not share Mr Kaletsky's sudden optimism.
A D Clarke, London,
It must be tough being an economic journalist at this time. You really have to work at it to create a story. You would seem to have earned your money today.
Henry Percy, London, UK
Why does the image of a poodle always come into my mind when I read Anatole's articles??
Anthony Back, Wellington, Telford, England
You say that the CPI now targeted by the Bank inherently understates inflation because it excludes housing costs and gives more weight than the old retail prices index to expensive durable goods, such as cars and computers, which are falling in price, but which most people buy only rarely. Housing is one point but I had thought that a price index gave appropriate weights to each item. Are you saying that the weight given to cars and computers is wrong or what? If it gives more weight than the older index, is this not because it reflects buying patterns? I am tempted to interpret your argument as a claim that the index is being manipulated. This may be so, but could you give the evidence?
stephen Bull, fontes, France
Get tough? with yet another Mickey Mouse 25 points increase... I don't think so Mr Kaletsky. The interest rate has been FAR too low for FAR too long. Recent hikes are FAR too little FAR too late. A FAR more correct rate is probably in the 8-9% territory which is historically the long term average and still lower than it was 16 years ago when the RPI and M4 was last at current rates. And the economy is stronger today than it was all those years ago.. I'd say our situation is not that different to Iceland's where the rate's well into double digits and still rising.
CWW, Suffolk,
Anatole,
It seems that you have recently been backtracking from your amazing optimism . Are you realising that you were wrong and economic reality is catching up with you and Mr Brown ?
Marc, London,
If you kept all your assets in cash in the last 10 years you would have lost a lot more purchasing power than CPI suggests. Inflation has been running rampant.
Richard, London,
The "success" of the so called independence of the B o E is all Spin. The have missed their( doctored) target 12 consecutive months in a row ! That is only "sucess" by the appalling performance standards of Govt.
R. James, Bristol,
So the whole world economy is going grew at the same time? Very unlikely. A little problem in China must soon arise. Nothing goes up forever and the US Stock market is so far removed from underlying economic reality that soon even our super optimistic American brothers are going to jump ship. About December I reckon. No Anatole. I believe you were right first time.
John Albert, Lisbon, Portugal
Everybody always forgets that there is a long delay between an increase in interest rates and its effect on comsumer confidence. The delay is usually from 5 to 9 months. The Bank knows this, but it is difficult to have enough faith to avoid overcompensating with just one more rate rise.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
A quater of a percentage point - tough? Absolute nonsense what we need is a full percentage point next month and probably a peak to 7%. Brown will surely need to raise more taxes to carry through his socialist schemes- this should all be fun to watch - from afar, but no-one is immune from what is about to occur.
Victor Cowen , Malaga, Spain
"ordinary workers" are they not the same as "most people"?
roger sykes, Christchurch, New Zealand
Clarity on inflation: as no two people on earth have exactly the same basket of goods, no two people can feel inflation in exactly the same way. Correct weighting, therefore, is an endless pursuit. The definition of inflation, however, should be clear: whatever CPI says it is. Why aren't mortgage costs included? because a house is an asset. Better to take into account what is involved in preventing a house's depreciation: building materials and builders' costs. The price of land, which alone explains the rise in house prices (in so far as the actual cost of bricks and mortar is included in the original valuation of the house), is no more a constituent part of inflation than, say, the level of the FTSE or the price of gold.
Pierre Bernardi, Paris, France
Surely the Bank is the proverbial "paper tiger". Collectively, they don't want to raise interest rates and to avoid this, they try to manipulate expectations. You should downplay what they say, AK, and concentrate on what they do. Ultimately they are soft on inflation and the current boom rightly or wrongly will continue to feed on itself.
William Butler, London,
'That Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank, might be guiltier of high treason than Guy Fawkes.- is conceptually wrong. Unless King presides and dominates the MPC meeting as always as what a Czar did, there should be collective responsibility, shared by its members, for every major decision that has been taken. Similarly, I don't balme Tony Blair alone for the mess the country has inherited from 10 years of Labour government.
James Wong, Macau,