Anatole Kaletsky
Star musicians and your favourite Times writers at the Albert Hall
With the Blair-Brown transition finally accomplished – and in exactly the smooth and orderly manner of which Gordon Brown always dreamt – the new Prime Minister must quickly achieve three political objectives if he wants to maximise his chances of securing a personal political mandate and to minimise the risk of his dream turning into the nightmare of general election defeat.
Mr Brown, in his brief statement yesterday from the steps of Downing Street, showed a perfect understanding of what these objectives are. First and foremost, he must prove that the Blair-Brown transition represents a genuine change of government. In his three-minute speech, the word “change” was repeated eight times. Secondly, he must restore some trust in government after Tony Blair’s decade of spin and prevarication. Thirdly, he must prove to voters, and especially to traditional Labour voters, that he lives in the real world of ordinary people, rather than floating ethereally, like Tony Blair, in a parallel universe of foreign presidents, global celebrities and business tycoons. Significantly, the only important polling question in which Mr Brown consistently lags behind David Cameron is the one about “understanding the concerns of ordinary people”.
Mr Brown understands these challenges, but to judge by the snippets emerging about his intentions in government, he has no idea how to meet them. If the new Government’s first few weeks are dominated by announcements of constitutional reforms, ministerial reshuffles and restructurings in the Civil Service or the NHS, Mr Brown will not just be failing to send a message of change. He will be signalling that, just like his predecessor, he lives in a self-deluding mental world of semantic abstractions, far removed from the realities of everyday life.
What, then, could Mr Brown do to convince the country that it now has a down-to-earth government of honesty and change? The answer is “plenty”.
The most obvious opportunities are in foreign policy. Iraq was not just Mr Blair’s most unpopular policy, but also the symbol of his dishonesty. Unless Mr Brown distances himself from the Blair-Bush policy on Iraq, his generalised promises of change will not just be futile but worse than that: they will reinforce his own reputation for dishonesty.
Luckily for Mr Brown, a decisive policy shift on Iraq would now be quite easy to accomplish. Since Britain’s troop numbers have already been reduced to just 5,500, the new Prime Minister has merely to promise to continue and complete the withdrawal within a timetable agreed with the Iraqis, removing Mr Blair’s transparently dishonest proviso that British troops will only be withdrawn once “security conditions allow”. Everyone knows that the real determinant of British troop numbers is not the security situation in Basra, but the political situation in Washington, where President Bush desperately needs to show that his bungling in Iraq still has the support of one remaining international ally. This is exactly the impression Mr Brown must now reverse. Until he does so, everything else he tries to do in foreign policy will turn to dust.
But while foreign policy shifts could go a long way to confirm Mr Brown’s commitments to honesty and change, they would do nothing to advance his third objective. Far from showing that he is in touch with ordinary voters’ concerns, preoccupation with foreign policy would send the opposite message, as it did in Mr Blair’s final years.
Clearly Mr Brown must refocus his Government on domestic issues, especially health, education, crime and taxes; but in the priorities he sets among these policies he seems to be on the brink of making some serious misjudgments. The subject on which Mr Brown feels personally most passionate is education, as he made clear again yesterday in the most heartfelt passage of his Downing Street statement: “I grew up in the town that I now represent in Parliament. I went to the local school. I wouldn’t be standing here without the opportunities that I received there.”
Yet politically he seems to believe that his top priority, both for new legislation and for government spending, must be further reform of the NHS. This seems to me a big mistake: education and crime are now much bigger problems than health for the British public. They are also much more fundamental to the real responsibilities of an effective government.
Law and order and decent universal education are genuine public goods, which can only be guaranteed by governments. This is not true of health, which can be and is provided by a wide variety of private and public arrangements around the world. Moreover, the NHS has already absorbed enough public money and suffered enough administrative upheavals. It now needs a long period of stability to establish whether it can provide reasonable value for its new enhanced budgets, or whether it will ultimately have to be replaced by partly privatised social insurance, along Scandinavian lines.
In education, by contrast, the need for change is more apparent than ever, especially at the secondary level – and at the bottom of the achievement spectrum, not the top.
If Mr Brown really wants to show that he can think afresh and that he is in touch with the concerns of ordinary voters he should recognise that the people of Britain are far more worried about the daily disappointments of their children’s education – not to mention the physical threats they face on the way to school, as they run the gauntlet of outlaw gangs increasingly addicted to violence – than they are about occasional inconveniences in their far less frequent contacts with hospitals and doctors. Britain’s public policy debate now desperately needs to be reorientated from elite issues, such as recruitment to universities and grammar schools, towards the real social challenge of the past two decades, which has been the emergence of a small but dangerously uneducated and increasingly alienated, violent underclass.
There are many other policy areas – for example, housing, nuclear power, prison reform, asylum and Europe – where Mr Brown could quickly take the initiative and show that he is more decisive, more honest and more in touch with Britain’s real problems than his predecessor. But it will be above all in dealing with the underclass that Mr Brown will have to show whether he can embrace new ideas and connect with the real concerns of the British public.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Many politicians insist they have a very high calibre and even suggest that it is much easier to work in the areas of business, industry and commerce than it is to be a politician and accept flak from all and sundry. I remain unconvinced that all politicians have a very high calibre, but then again they are paid, not just their basic salary but the numerous other perks and allowances, a very high income to equate to their alleged calibre. However, what I should like to see are more politicians with high levels of integrity, loyalty and commitment to this nation and a great deal more openness and honesty when they debate and consider policies and plans that are in the best interests of the people of this country rather than themselves. Unless Mr Brown is seen to be open from the start and reduce rhetoric and spin then he will find it very difficult to distance himself from the decade of Mr Blair.
Kenneth Armitage, Suffolk, England
Has Kaletsky got a secret camera in my house? He seems to have an uncanny idea of what is going on round here. He's right.
Today I'm going to have to waste a lot of time and probably get in to an antagonistic situation with people who only ever meant to do a good job, because they have been systematically denied the tools they need to impose discipline in schools.
I would like a high standard of education, but I will settle for one which means I don't have to keep threatening to sue the head teacher or finance a private security guard to follow my child round as a precaution.
So far, over the last ten years the government has failed to secure even the basic safety of children and teachers, constantly expecting them to put up with being bullied and assaulted.
When people clamour for selective schooling what they really want is violent children selected out on the basis of their behaviour so that the rest of us can get on with making something of life.
I want this fixed NOW.
V Samuel, Cambridge,
Sadly, Brown has to do very little to win the next election,because in relation to the inexperienced Cameron he has gravitas and track record.His best strategy is to do very little.Cameron has naively painted himself as Blair Mark 2 at the very time when Blair's spin has made him the most unpopular politician in the country.
I do not disagree with Mr Kaletsky's analysis of what needs to be addressed.But, in fact the British are fed up with constant change and attendant bureaucracy.So by commiting himself to more change he risks everything.
To address crime and the violent underclass all he needs to do is re-empower the police under existing legislation.If they can use batons and watercannon ,as they do in France and Spain the town centres will quickly be like Madrid ,Paris and Brussels ,safe for the vast majority to stroll through at midnight.Similairly ,a re -empowering of teachers and doctors will produce results.
Iraq he should blame on USA bungling and leave,by year end.
R G James, Brasschaat, Belgium
Sadly, Brown has to do very little to win the next election,because in relation to the inexperienced Cameron he has gravitas and track record.His best strategy is to do very little.Cameron has naively painted himself as Blair Mark 2 at the very time when Blair's spin has made him the most unpopular politician in the country.
I do not disagree with Mr Kaletsky's analysis of what needs to be addressed.But, in fact the British are fed up with constant change and attendant bureaucracy.So by commiting himself to more change he risks everything.
To address crime and the violent underclass all he needs to do is re-empower the police under existing legislation.If they can use batons and watercannon ,as they do in France and Spain the town centres will quickly be like Madrid ,Paris and Brussels ,safe for the vast majority to stroll through at midnight.Similairly ,a re -empowering of teachers and doctors will produce results.
Iraq he should blame on USA bungling and leave,by year end.
R G James, Braaschaat, Belgium
What does Brown need to do? Bring bliar to justice and hand him into the hague to face trial for war crimes, the most serious war crime of all an act of aggression against international law.
Until that happens Britain wilkl continue to be the laughing stock of world politics
Harold, Luton,
Typical of modern day politicians who will promise anything to get elected and rely on the traditional short memories of the people to survive.
How can Brown talk about change - he was the second most powerful man in the UK for 10 years and instrumental in most of the policies put into place by New Labour. Is he now admitting he was wrong, for 10 years? - that doesn't sound like a promising start to me.
At least when Cameron calls for change, he does so with the voice of a man who was not involved in the mistakes, just a pity he carries so much upper class 'toff ' baggage with him - is it too late to ditch him for David Davis ?
tony, birmingham, uk
Brown is faced with a catch 22, he has build his reputation as the power behind the blair throne, encouraging the belief that he has had a finger in every decision.
Any change in direction will show him to be insincere or to accept that he was wrong. The alternative is for him to accept that rather than being the strong man of the blair regime he was just another sychophantic yes man who would do anything to stay in office.
Rather depressingly the only thing we have to look forward to while Brown stays in office will be his own increasing discomfiture.
Edward Andrew Green, Upminster, England
It is early days but Brown does not seem to have fresh ideas on crime and social problems other than that they all have an economic base.
A popular TV series has been "Bad Lads Army" where 30 ne'er-do-wells in their 20s with criminal records were subjected to 1950's style British Army basic training for a single month. Most were entirely transformed by the experience. Parents, girlfriends and they themselves, could hardly believe that in this short time they could become hard working, self-disciplined and honest. I trained as a social scientist and could see how it worked.
Oddly nothing has come of this. We have an ever-rising prison population and the only remedies appear more prisons or early release. Why has something that demonstrably works been shunned by politicians - or even serious commentators? Is it dread memories from their own teenage rebellions? Is it as silly as that?
Bob T, London, UK
I do not see Gordon Brown being MP for his hometown as a strength. It suggests parochial horizons from an unelected Prime Monister and party leader who has never held a paid job outside politics.
An extremely clever man who has never shared the mundane worries of the electorate but has the self certainty of his "moral compass".
Don't know about everyone else but it worries me.
Tom Sykes, hudeersfield,
Kaletsky asks, How can Brown offer honest government? Let's see: Brown and Blair secretly agree a mid-term handover over of power while Blair promises the voters that he intends to serve a full term if elected. The man was never given a mandate to run Britain.
Honest government indeed.
steve howe, cardiff,
You write "Secondly, he must restore some trust in government after Tony Blairâs decade of spin and prevarication"...
Why only "some"? Bliar has removed the last crumbs of credibility that we live in a parliamentary democracy. And now we have moved from an elected dictator to an unelected one. Unless he pulls down all that Bliar has erected to bypass the parliamentary process, then he will be no better than Bliar.
Jeremy Poynton, Fromeville, 51st State
Change? Why do we always have to have change? We've had ten years of mostly useless or destructive change. I know that stability, continuity and predictability are pretty unfashionable ideas, but I am quite sure that human nature requires a modicum of all of them, and I'm sure I'm not alone in longing for something to be the same for a while. "If it ain't broken, don't fix it" holds a lot of truth.
Trofim, Birmingham, UK
As Chancellor, Gordon knows exactly where he spent the taxes and he knows the thinking behind that spending. On Health, he thought there would be reforms and the high spend of the last few years would leave a more efficient Health Service, at a cost lower than the current level of spending. He cannot afford to leave that area untouched - he needs to reduce the level of spending!
Otherwise the electorate might notice that we have record money being pumped into the Health Service and thousands of medically trained staff who are unable to find jobs. As a certain Mr Simpson might say "DOH!"
Frank, Alderley Edge,
Gordon Brown is an arrogant bully. He does not take advice, especially when it contradicts his own narrow views, as has been amply demonstrated during his chancellorship. His failings are legendary, and need not be repeated here. I agree with Neil. This whole episode has been a disaster for Britain; failing education; an NHS having absorbed billions shows no improvement; a Nanny State policy; a government obsessed with surveillance and suspicion of its own citizens; the mendacity and duplicity over Iraq - the list goes on. Perhaps the other political parties are equallu unnatractive, but to continue with this government is sheer folly. Ultimately the record will show that Brown will be different only in degree, not in direction.
Adrian Ryan, Donegal, Ireland
If Brown were to give us a referendum on Europe and settle the injustices in the relationship of England with Scotland, he would prove that he understoood the cynicism and disgust of many voters about our politicians.
And if he could assure us that he is not going to pour billions and billions of pounds extracted from heavily over-taxed British citizens into the welfare of African children - or almost certainly their corrupt and useless leaders- the middle classes might feel a little happier about his policies.
Robert Sebag-Montefiore, Geneva, Switzerland
Where exactly will he find the new talent to carry through these ridiculous precepts expounded just for thhe cameras and the cringeing press? Blair had already scraped the bottom of the barrel. Everything will be fine for El Gordo until something goes wrong which given current form will be about a week or so, then the spin doctors will move back in...(they never went away).
victor M., Malaga, Spain
There has always been an uneducated violent underclass. If anything it is better than say prior to 1914. Great citities had areas where no middle class nember of the public dared to enter. This is not so now in Europe but very much so in the Americas and perhaps in some parts of Asia.
Peter Kaldor, Woking, U.K.
The conjoined twins of British politics have finally emerged from their prolonged and traumatic operation of separation.
It remains to be seen if either has the strength for independant existant.
The first prognosis is poor, if based on their immediate actions.
barry samways, London, UK
Whatever Brown does, and regardless of who is in his Cabinet, the only way in which he could restore any semblance of integrity and trust in the Labour administration is by disassociating himself from Blair's disastrous and immoral Iraq policy, apologising for all the suffering it has caused, and withdrawing the remaining British troops forthwith. If he doesn't, the Labour party will never get my vote. Bush is now virtually irrelevant, a soon-to-be-former President, so any pre-existing palsy agreements between Bush and Blair can be thrown out of the window. It's time for a fresh start, as Brown says, so let's make it an honest and morally justified start.
Julian Hopkins, St Albans, UK
So what's he saying is the reason for the last ten years - "I was only obeying my leader's orders". Maybe we could add "Mein Fuhrer" onto the end of that statement. For Gordon Brown to promise change and try to disclaim any responsibility for the last ten years is akin to 3rd world dictators handing over to an annointed son and heir in a mock election.
Stand by your own recorded statements Gordon - general election announcement asap!
KR, Stockport,
Ensuring that everyone gets taught what they need to know to live and work effectively in 21st century Britain will create a virtuous circle of greater productivity and better health, happier people with less criminal intent and a broader range of leisure interests than the oblivion of binge drunkeness.
To ensure this lessons need to be broad in scope. Reading and writing and arithmetic, yes, but also cookery and health, music and theatre, languages and culture, basic finance and economics, sport and personal fitness, rhetoric and politics.
Nobody needs '5 good GCSEs' to be a useful member of society. They need to know who they are and how amazing it is to be alive.
Richard Boyce, HAYWARDS HEATH, Sussex
What we need is a Prime Minister elected as a result of a General Election not someone foisted on us as a result of some dinner deal 13 years ago and without even the limited benefit of a party election.
Carroll Powell, London, London
Sorry, Gordon, your credibility is down to a big zero. You were running the economy for TEN YEARS and we are stuck with a massive amount of debt. You have not funded the Armed Forces properly. You have conived at fostering a section of society for whoom life on benefits is preferable to going out to work. You sold off half our gold reserves at the bottom of the market. You wrecked many private pension schemes. You have done nothing to support British Industry; only using it as handy generator of taxes.
Now you talk about a new begining. Just remember Abraham Lincoln's words about fooling all of the people all of the time. We are not all dummies out here.
W D Toulman, Walkington, United Kingdom
Nothing will change it will be new wording like Tony and Merkels changing of the wording so we don't get a say on the constitution just another lying politician whose only interest is really looking after Scotland
Don't say you have not been warned
syd, Leeds, uk
For years we were told of the Blair-Brown partnership. Blair leading and Brown making the finances work. We were told about the prosperity "they" had created due to their (and New Labour's) policies. Now Brown gets in the driving seat and its change, change, change! If previously the government was bad or not good or mediocre, why did he not stand up for change at any time? I find him hypocritical in that he went along with Blair all that time and now he wants to change things for the "better"? A general election is what's required, nothing less. Brown was not voted in by the electorate, he just happened to be in the right place at the right time (for him, anyway). Party politics apart, he should do the honourable thing and call an election and for that matter also give us, the British people, a referendum on the travesty that masquerades as the "EU Treaty".
Has he the bottle?
N. Chalk, Devon, UK
Let us hope that education becomes a priority. We have a system where a 'C' in GCSE Mathematics is regarded as some sort of gold standard; but it can be achieved by demonstrating that you have not understood two-thirds of what you have studied, but have contrived to rote-learn, with little understanding, one-third. This is advantageous to neither student nor society. Both would gain from a system whereby the coveted grade can be achieved only by demonstrating a high level of understanding in the area of study. This can be done, very simply, by giving A*, A, or B grades only for success in Higher papers, and reserving the 'C' for excellent achievement at the Foundation level.
Gordon Cardew, Norwich, UK
I think that Gordon Brown will have to deal with an NHS problem quite soon. Thanks to Blair's distaste for domestic politics and in particular his decision to leave such details to his appointees, chosen for their willingness to sing from the Blair hymn sheet rather than competence, there is going to be a shortage of hospital doctors from 1st August onwards. This is the result of the new Modernising Medical Careers system, whereby every junior doctor will change jobs on the same day, rather than spreading this upheaval between two dates, February and August as previously. The fact that most young doctors still have no idea where they are supposed to start work on 1st August and that most deaneries know already that they will be very short of staff because the system has left many doctors without a job suggests that Brown may have to take some action to prevent waiting times again increasing.
Sheona Hutcheson, Chesham,
Too late. This Government and Parliament have forfeited the good will, belief ,faith and trust in the whole Institution. We will never believe them again. Yesterdays rank demonstration of credulity and hypocrisy following Blair's farewell shows the House has no inkling of how the people of England at least feel about him.
John Albert , Lisbon, Hillbery
It's bizarre that Brown seems to see himself as some kind of new broom when he's had more influence on the policies we've been subjected to in the last 10 years than anyone except Blair and, in foreign policy, Bush.
Neil, Hamble, England
The recent Panorama programme highlighted the total hypocritic nature of our new Prime Minister. He may claim to bring the values from his childhood upbringing but any person that can use his position of power with such cynicism of the system and population, highlighted with his raid on the Private Pension Funds does not deserve the position of Prime Minister. I am totally disgusted that the Labour Party have found it imposible to run a suitable opponent and if he has any integrity whatsoever he should call a General Election to obtain the country's approval.
Alan James, Petersfield, UK
"...the emergence of a small but dangerously uneducated and increasingly alienated, violent underclass"
Is this a comment referring to those 'never had it so good years' of teddyboy gang fights outside our local police station?
(1957-1963) or of those alienated young unemployed of the Thatcher years - the generation that was lost?
And wouldn't a government of honesty and change really be too much for the media to tolerate? What on earth could you write about?
keith, Dalsland, Sweden
Surely Europe will be an issue not only at next Wednesday's PM Questions but at the next General Election? I still don't know what Mr Brown's position is on Europe. Does he agree with the recent mini-treaty and the major financial concessions agreed by Tony Blair at the last two EU summits?If so, the UK will be paying more into the pool - ie down the drain - in 2013 not less. We know that Mr Brown strongly opposed the UK's entry into EMU 2 ("the euro") but we still don't know if he wants to be at the heart of Europe - as TB used to claim, erroneously as it turned out - or whether he agrees with Sarkozy's neat footwork on state intervention. He also needs to get an immediate grip on Olympic Games expenditure. As we saw here - and are still seeing in unused stadia - in Athens, a lot of time and money was wasted on what has become a media-security circus. The Greeks will be paying for the 2004 Games for the next 15 years. How long will the Brits be paying for the 2012 Games?
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
Anatole Kaletsky is spot on. Tackling the emergence of the undereducated, violent underclass who, here in Nottingham in particular, are a huge and real threat to our collective peace of mind, should be Gordon's first priority if he is to prove his claim to understand the concerns of we, the unprotected "ordinary people".
Julia Lucie, Nottingham, UK
When are we all going to admit the bleeding obvious,take the policy statement of affordable housing for all,it will not matter how many houses you build you will never meet the demand of labours obsession to house,feed, and medicate the planet on this tiny island,its the same thincking that decreed if we only build more roads we will end congestion.
robert, ashford, UK
"What, then, could Mr Brown do to convince the country that it now has a down-to-earth government of honesty and change? The answer is âplentyâ. "
No, it isn't. The answer is "Nothing" -- because we do not have a government of honesty. You're too close to the pantomime. From where most of us are sitting, it's clear that we have a government of liars. What's worse -- if anything could be -- is that we also have a government (and have had for some time) that sees us, the people, as the enemy.
John Lynch, Whittington, Shropshire, UK
"Unless Mr Brown distances himself from the Blair-Bush policy on Iraq, his generalised promises of change will not just be futile but worse than that: they will reinforce his own reputation for dishonesty. "
If he does distance himself then he will be a proven liar anyway. He was closely involved in the whole enterprise, as he was with every other aspect of Blair's government. If he divorces himself from it he just looks like a lying opportunist, if he doesn't, then there is no change.
Had he resigned or stood ujp to Blair, then one could give the benefit of the doubt, but he has shown himself so desperate for power he has no real ethics, just overweening ambition and the arrogance of the fanatic who believes himself right and everyone not with him wrong.
Neil Murphy, cromer,