Anatole Kaletsky: Analysis
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Credit is rooted, quite literally, in the Latin credo “I believe”. Chapter 1 of any monetary textbook explains that a bank run of the kind we have seen in the high streets of Britain can be stopped only by creating an absolute belief in the safety of the money in question.
In normal times, it is enough for people to believe that their savings are reasonably safe on the balance of probabilities, barring some unexpected calamity and with a decent reward, via the rate of interest, for the very small risk they accept.
But once a bank run has started, such conditional belief is no longer good enough. Rational people will not leave their money – any money – in a bank whose credit is evaporating before their eyes. Something dramatic has to happen to make them feel absolutely, and not just conditionally, secure.
This was the dire situation that some policymakers, bankers and commentators recognised over the weekend and was formally recognised by the Chancellor yesterday afternoon. Alistair Darling, Gordon Brown and Mervyn King will doubtless be attacked in the weeks ahead for risking public money, underwriting imprudence, fomenting moral hazard and creating an unnecessary crisis.
But at least they cannot be criticised for hiding their heads in the sand or being paralysed by fear, like John Major in the somewhat comparable circumstances of Black Wednesday, exactly 15 years ago. The Government has acted in time to avert a catastrophe of Black Wednesday proportions. Having failed to reassure savers on Friday morning with the announcement of a credit line from the Bank of England, the Chancellor has bitten the bullet immediately, providing all the security that any depositor in a British bank could possibly ask for. This was far better – and will certainly entail less risk for the Exchequer – than the incremental alternative of offering gradually stronger, but still contingent or ambiguous reassurances, which the markets would have thrown back in his face.
But even if the Government’s decisiveness yesterday deserves some plaudits and will probably ensure that this crisis is resolved without taxpayers having to bear any actual costs. This near-catastrophe should be seen as the start, not the end, of a serious debate about the institutions that supervise Britain’s financial services and the competence of the people in charge.
The first item to debate will obviously be the causes of the Northern Rock crisis. For Mr Darling to pretend it was a pure accident caused by the problems of the US mortgage markets is not good. A serious and critical examination must now be undertaken of the Financial Services Authority’s regulatory arrangements and of the monetary management by the Bank.
Even more urgently, however, the Chancellor must explain in detail why he really had no alternative to the sweeping guarantees he offered in this case – and what he will do to prevent similar situations arising in future bank crises, since these will inevitably occur from time to time. The answers to both these questions revolve around a problem which has scarcely been mentioned so far in the Northern Rock crisis but is actually more important than all the discussions about moral hazard and imprudent lending by banks. This problem is the archaic and self-defeating system for insuring bank deposits in Britain, which the Bank of England has been trying to reform for years, but with no success.
Probably the main reason why the original efforts to save Northern Rock were such an instant failure was the blatant contradiction between the Government’s promise of unlimited support from the Bank of England and the details of the official deposit insurance arrangements. This states that only the first £2,000 of deposits were guaranteed fully with a guarantee of only 90 per cent up to £35,000 and nothing beyond that. Which of these stories were savers supposed to believe? Britain is the only major economy in the world where bank guarantees are so weak and arrangements for repayment of larger deposits are left entirely undefined and at governments’ discretion.
It is now time to move towards a system similar to those in the US and much of Europe, where deposits up to around £100,000 are fully guaranteed by compulsory insurance schemes, funded by the banking industry. If an insurance scheme were established with such reasonably high limits, then depositors of larger sums could be treated in the same way as commercial creditors and offered no protection at all.
But what about the vexed question of “moral hazard”? Surely that is the real issue raised by yesterday’s bailout and talk of a more generous deposit guarantee scheme would send exactly the wrong messages – encourage even further the imprudent lending which is said to be at the root of this mess.
That analysis is simply wrong. Support for depositors will neither reward nor encourage future lending excesses, provided the shareholders who are ultimately responsible for Northern Rock’s misjudgments lose all or most of their investments and the company’s managers and directors lose their jobs.
Provided those conditions are satisfied, protecting the broader economy from financial disaster is infinitely more important than puritanical vindictiveness after the harm is done.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Sorry if this is the wrong section, but it's the only one I can find at this moment.
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Update us on finding Madeleine.
Well done!
Lindsay, Cape Town, South Africa
And if the Insurance companies invest in companies like Northern Rock? That's just adding another level to the house of cards.
Steve Candlish, London WestSide,
This is just typical for Labour: avoid the short-term pain (especially coming up to an election) to keep shoring up a corrupt banking system and destabilising house price boom. This is hugely irresponsible and the consequences will be far-reaching.
And this backing by the government of ALL bank deposits to 100% of the value is not the norm in other countries at all. The USA guarantees deposits up to 100,000 dollars, in other words about 50,000 pounds. Most other countries have similarly limited deposit guarantee schemes like the UK had up until yesterday. Why? Because obviously it would completely bankrupt the nation to pay out on all savings deposits in all banks at the first hint of any market dip. The figures don't add up for any government to take such unprecedented action.
MB, Edinburgh,
Alan Greenspans comments that interest rates in the UK may need to go up to 10% were not helpful. If this happened there would be chaos and much more panicking. These comments from the ex master of smoke-and-mirror central banking from the worlds top-dog credit line institution, which we all know will one day be chalenged as the USA declines relative to China and other poulous and industrious nations. Perhaps he knows the dangers so well of the empty promises of banks who lend out 90% more than they have in deposits which they are allowed to do. The saving grace is that cash is only a tiny percentage of all circulating money and the fact that most transactions are electronic means that providing our plastic works we will have to keep our money as digits on the hard drives of the banks databases. There is nowhere else for it to go. Money is basically a mutual agreement between people on the storage of value and as such just depends on people collectively agreeing, not paper money.
dengreenhow, Inverness, UK
"all the security that any depositor in a British bank could possibly ask for" This is true, but still they queue (as of mid-Tuesday morning).
Some are surely queuing just for the opportunity to tell a TV crew they don't trust politicians. Others seem to be in a very strange place where they openly admit their deposit is safe but still want to move to another, unresearched, bank account.
Last year a study found that a significant number of people who filled out a fake "phishing" form on the web knew about phishing, and thought this was likely to be a phishing attempt, but they went ahead and filled out the form anyway. This seems to be a mental state similar that of those in the queues. Numbers of these people are not just acting irrationally, but incomprehensibly.
1) With people acting like this, can we be sure the panic won't infect depositors at other banks?
2) Any strategy for avoiding future panics based on a model of rational behaviour is likely to fail at some point.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Another example of the failure of the FSA to regulate properly following on from precipice bonds, split caps, endowments, Equitable and pensions. Of course the FSA will blame unusual conditions, but with their ARROW risk assessments, enormous budget, and 'supposedly' high quality management, I'm not sure I'll believe them.
Simon Harbord, Newcastle,
God save the King! We believe again! Is it really that simple? Faith is not exhausted overnight and nor can it be restored overnight. The end is not nigh. It is here.
ludwig, austria,
Very sensible commentary from Mr Kaletsky.
But the government and the Bank of England have indeed had their heads in the sand. They should have provided a firm commitment to protecting depositors a week earlier, after Northern Rock approached the BoE. Instead they were making speeches about moral hazard and 'good old fashioned' banking. King and Darling have been forced to eat their words and this should be as embarrassing for the government as Black Wednesday.
A Clarke, London,
Though I take the point on how the Rock obtained its finance short and then loaned it long, it seems that much can be drawn from the conversion of building societies into banks.
Though they may be banks in name, they hardly have the spread of business nor the experience of a true banking house.
Chris Kenney, High Wycombe, Bucks
Thank goodness for Anatole Kaletsky, his incisive understanding, pragmatic common sense and clear communication skills.
I only hope the government and the Bank of England take note.
Alistair Nicholls, Northwich, Cheshire
I don't see the same distinction Mr Kaletsky seems to see between depositors and shareholders, and the banking industry and any other.
Depositors in Northern Rock were earning 6% plus. That is a very high return. I don't think that Northern Rock depositors were behaving all that differently to people who speculate.
And certainly, rewarding such return-chasing with an unconditional guarantee teaches exactly the wrong lesson about chasing high returns.
I wonder how many shady characters are now rubbing their hands in the knowledge that the prospect of a bail-out is one more argument they can use to tempt people into high-risk schemes.
The guarantee doesn't even have to be effective. It just has to be "out there" to tempt depositors to make more and more unwise bets.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/US
I have no issue with any of Anatole's comments nor savers being protected. I do though have issue with the taxpayer providing a guarantee and, regardless whether the guarantee is used or not, seemingly receiving nothing for it. Banks would not provide anything like such a guarantees without a huge fee, regardless the risks, so why is the taxpayer? In the same vein, Northern Rock shareholders invested for potential reward and with that came risk. That risk has now materialised through the pursuit of an overtly aggressive strategy that ostensibly lacked any form of fallback should the sky fall in. Were the situation not politically sensitive those shareholders would have been left high and dry yet here they have not. I would have more confidence in the financial policies of this government if, for once, they realised the taxpayers would like to see value for money as much as any private institution and acted accordingly.
James D, Ipswich, UK
I can insure your house against nuclear attack. However in the chaotic conditions of a nuclear war, what would a piece of paper saying that you hold an insurance policy with me be worth? Similarly, governments can run out of money, and in the chaotic condtions of a banking crisis they are likely to. Insuring large deposits is making a similar mistake to taking out an inusrance policy agaisnt nuclear attack.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
"Having failed to reassure savers on Friday morning with the announcement of a credit line from the Bank of England, the Chancellor has bitten the bullet..."
It seems there is no risk to their savings, but if they keep whining the Governor will keep offering more to appease them. Depositors now are assured they cannot lose, so they should bargain for more. Say B of E must double Northern Rock savings interest rates or the bank run continues. It's either a one-way bet or blackmail, depending on how you view things.
Gordon Murray, Edinburgh,
Well, I have learnt one valuable lesson, 24 hours is a long time in the life of a leading commentator on economics and I used to be a big fan of Anatole Kaletsky.
Running on Empty, Gerrards Cross, Leafy Bucks
The Government wants us to save for our old age. Let's say that by the time we retire we've managed to save £200,000. Are we really expected to open 100 separate savings accounts to keep ourselves safe?
You can say what you like about mattresses but at least you can get your money out of them.
Joseph Bruno, London,
I would say that this article by Mr Kaletsky is well researched and well written, and highlights some of the weaknesses in the current regulatory systems.
Dave Humphrey, Gloucester,
I fully concur with a sensible deposit insurance scheme for authorised banks funded by the institutions themselves. The FDIC system in the US is not perfect but allows small depositors to sleep at night. The big depositors and shareholders can look after themselves.
The reality is in this day and age no government can afford to let small depositors down if confidence in the system is to be maintained.
The real fault here lies with the regulators, esecially the FSA who should have questioned Northern Rock's business model. More generally, it is the fault of the international regualtory system that has allowed off balance sheet derivatives to swell to $600 billion - more than 10 times world GDP.
William Thomson, Manila, Philippines
Actually, while not necessarily considered a major world economy, New Zealand has no deposit insurance at all, and the banks offer no guarantees.
Amanda Pearson, Auckland, New Zealand
Another pice of well argued but flawed rubbish from Mr Kaletsky. He states that the Major Government was frozen when the markets tried to throw it out of the ERM. Not true. Nigel Lawson raised interest rates to 15% and bought pounds back like there was no tomorrow in a gesture tantamount to King Kanute attempting to hold back the tide. As we know today this was pointless and merely a waste of tax payers money. The lesson here is that in the modern global market governments cannot control market forces and to try to do so is ultimately a waste of money and bound to end in humiliation.
Government guarantees over Northern Rock are clearly proving groundless as evidenced by the queues on the high street. Once again the markets are doing their own thing. As the poison CDO contagion spreads does Mr Koletsky think the taxpayer is going to bail ever affected bank out and even if he tried would he succeed? Pure folly.
Jonathan Bwater, Huntsville, USA