Anatole Kaletsky
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Last week's election fiasco marked the end of the beginning for Gordon Brown’s Government. This week’s Autumn Statement was the beginning of the end.
Last week, the Prime Minister was in personal trouble, his carefully crafted image of decisiveness, straightforwardness and strategic thinking was in tatters and his closest lieutenants were looking like fools.
All this was bad, but not irreparable. The deceptively flattering bounce in the polls was over, but the new Prime Minister had two years to get on with the serious business of government and lay out a programme for what he could reasonably expect to be his second term in office. This long process of communication and implementing the new Prime Minister’s long-term strategy was supposed to begin with Tuesday’s Autumn Statement. Instead, what started last week as a personality issue has turned into a crisis of confidence in the entire new Labour project, an erosion of its ideological basis and a fragmentation of the coalition that built it.
These are large claims, perhaps exaggerated by the infectious myopia that often distorts our vision in the Westminster village. There will be many more unexpected events between now and the election, so nobody can seriously claim to predict who will win in 2009 or 2010.
What can be asserted with confidence, however, is that the pendulum of British politics has suddenly changed direction and the interesting questions now are all about the speed of motion, not about the clear reality that the centre of gravity is moving back to the Right.
To put it another way, the new Labour coalition, which so recently imagined itself as the “natural party of government” for 21st-century Britain, looks increasingly like a temporary interlude in the long era of Conservative ideological dominance that began with the victory of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 and still has decades to run. Politics, economics and ideology all now point in this same direction.
Starting with politics, the new élan of the Tories and the demoralisation on the Labour benches was almost painfully evident at Prime Minister’s Question Time yesterday in the confrontation between a relaxed and eloquent Mr Cameron and a defensive, almost frightened-looking Mr Brown. Such personal atmospherics may change – and Mr Brown may even gain a sympathy vote, as John Major briefly did among women, if the Tories continue to bait him as cruelly as they did yesterday. What will not change is the newfound status of the Tories as a plausible alternative government and a source of new ideas for British politics in the years ahead.
Even tactically, Labour will suffer from apeing the Tory idea of inheritance tax reform. People who really care about inheritance tax will still vote Tory, since a simple allowance of £1 million is much more attractive than £700,000, hedged about with complicated conditions.
Meanwhile, Labour activists and voters who believe in principle that inheritance should be heavily taxed will despair of the Brown Government and turn to the Lib Dems or nationalists instead.
Economic conditions will aggravate the political risks to Labour. The danger lies partly in the weakening of economic growth. But this slowdown would not have damaged the Government’s economic credibility on its own. Voters understand that boom conditions do not last for ever and the economy next year is unlikely to be much worse than in 2005, when Tony Blair was reelected with a comfortable margin. The bigger problem is that an economic slowdown will play havoc with the Treasury’s figures on public borrowing – especially if the tax attack on foreign workers aggravates a sharp decline in City jobs and profits, as it probably will.
If this occurs, then the Treasury will be forced to abandon the fiscal rules and targets invented ten years ago by Mr Brown. Indeed, the process of abandoning these rules began with the Treasury statement, in which the Chancellor did not bother to read out the public borrowing figures, knowing that nobody would have believed them in any case. With the credibility of the Bank of England also in question, economic policy will be almost rudderless.
And that, in turn, will embolden opposition to the Government from both the Left and Right. Unions and traditional Labour voters will demand ever larger breaches of public spending targets, which are being overshot anyway. Meanwhile, George Osborne will be able to argue, with a lot of justice, that government costings of proposed Tory tax cuts are just as unreliable as the projections of the Treasury’s own fiscal plans.
A period of intellectual anarchy can be expected between now and the next general election. Since the Government has been so cavalier with numbers in its own economic and fiscal planning, Treasury criticisms of the Tory policies will be dismissed as propaganda. This economic free-for-all for all should allow the Tories, if they play their cards wisely, to shift the locus of debate even farther on to their home ground. They will be able to promise tax cuts without worrying too much about their financing, since the public will ignore lectures on fiscal prudence from Labour politicians who had broken all their own rules. Meanwhile, the appeal of public spending will be waning, as the NHS absorbs ever larger sums of public money, while doctors, nurses and teachers protest at pay cuts and hospitals and colleges close down.
The upshot is that the burden of proof in British politics is shifting. That taxes and public spending must rise for ever can no longer be taken for granted. Political parties who want lower tax – and by implication smaller government – no longer seem out of tune with the times. And this ideological shift means the beginning of the end for Labour government.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Labour doesn't mean 'labour' now, anymore than 'Tory' means conservative. Both arrogant out-of-touch parties regularly ignore the indigenous folk of the British Isles at their peril. NuLab are champagne socialists like Blair, Blears and Blur. Cameron is a cynical OE who gives his old school little to be proud of . Looks like a lot of hot air by an over-paid and overly-empowered Political Class. Why do you think that the equivalent of the population of Malta are permanently leaving these shores each year? Oh, didn't the BBC tell you?Polly Toynbee Put the Kettle On And We'll All Have Mint Tea.
Will Capel Cure, West London, England
Writing off the Labour Party and Mr Brown on the basis of an admittedly poor performance in the House by the Prime Minister is somewhat premature. He remains a political heavyweight but will need to keep his eye on the ball. Mr Cameron, although a comparative novice comes across well and is a worthy successor to Rory Bremner as the effective opposition in this country.
Frank Greaney, Formby, United Kingdom
The truth is that middle england would prefer a lightweight Englishman to an intellectual Scot. Why do you think Blair got one over Brown after the death of Smith? Brown was the 'natural' successor but has had to wait for 10 years and endure unspeakable humiliations to get where he is.
The Anglo-Saxons are not only racists but are intolerant of anyone who is not English.
My next door neighbour in England (80 years of age) and the wife of a scientist used to accept all kinds of help and work from her building contractor and yet privately complain to me about him because he was 'Irish'. Her late husband a decent fellow used to criticise 'foreigners' across the board and when reminded by me that I was also was a foreigner, he would respond by saying,'you are different'. Anybody who knows anything about cricket knows how desperate the English selectors were to have an 'English' captain before finally opting for Nasser Hussein. LABOUR IS THE ONLY PARTY THAT WILL DELIVER AS IT HAS SO FAR.
PARDHANANILAKSHMAN, goa, india
I vividly remember Jim Callaghan singing "There was I, waiting at the church..." at the 1978 Labour Party conference, just as he was ducking the opportunity of an election and holding on to the end. The Winter of Discontent and Margaret Thatcher followed in short order.
History is indeed repeating itself, once as tragedy, and again as farce.
Charles, Charlottesville,
Gordon Brown should have learned a lesson from his now very former Canadian counterpart Paul Martin, aka Mr. Dithers. Martin longed to be PM, finally ousted his boss, but failed to translate his leadership in the Finance Office to the PMO. Martin tripped, stumbled, and instead of being a strong leader, dithered on almost every issue. In the end, he lead a short-lived minority government and was relegated (along with it now seems the mighty Liberal Party) to the dust-heep of history and party infighting.
Mark, Newfoundland, Canada
Darling's Inheritance tax give away last week looked pretty desperate,and shows again they don't have any good ideas of their own. Blair often talked the talk with good ideas but almost always failed to deliver on them, and much of it tuned out to be just spin.
Labour have spent a huge amount of our money, and much of it not very wisely.
It is a corporation that when you mess up the cash flow you can raise taxes to solve the problem.Any normal business would have gone bust years ago with such a spendthrift at the helm.
Trevor, BURY ST EDMUNDS,
The pendulum is swinging away from labour because people suddenly realise they are exposed to a humdinger of a recession and that property prices go down as well as up, wiping out many in the process.
Throw into the mix this time very serious global financial imbalances, unresolved conflict in the middle east, under-stated inflation, mass immigration - and you have the recipe for a very ugly future.
MarkS, Leeds,
I feel that the problem is voter disengagement due to the fact that all three parties are the same except for some minor differences. Many people would vote for a minor party (eg Plaid Cwmru, the BNP, the Greens, etc) if it weren't for the fact that we are forced into a two-horse race between two centre-ground parties staffed with professional politicians with no experience of the real world. We need proportional representation to get a more representative ruling class, whether that is unpalatable to the Islington elite or not.
Dr A Caldicott, Palmerston North, New Zealand (ex pat)
Could it be ....
.... that Britain is finally waking up to the fact that it's had a socialist tax and waste government for the past 10 years??
Only time will tell.
Jon Leigh, Southern, France
I'm not so convinced. The Inheritance Tax moves were claimed to be "wildly popular", but were in fact only so in the south (though admittedly in key marginal seats). Moreover, they were financed "for free" i.e. by magically taxing non-voters, and were extremely modest in overall scale.
In other words, we are still waiting for the honest debate about lower taxes and commensuate lower public spending. Nor do the Tories have any clear ideas on getting better value for money out of the public services - they attack the target driven culture, but "trust the professionals" doesn't sound like a cost control strategy to me.
We are still waiting therefore for a clear agenda and new ideas from either side. Until this happens opinion polls are bound to be hugely volatile, because the voters have so little to go on.
Nick, France,
This article, like all others in all sections of the press, reads to me like something which is becoming irrelevant to many of the public. The fact is that 40% of British people don't vote and 10% and rising vote for small parties. Political journalists write about the battle beween the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems but this is just a fight for a smaller and smaller slice of the electoral cake. Could we have PR please -this would encourage new parties to form, and maybe some of the non voting public might re-enage.
Carol, London,
The other factor you did not touch on is that Labour are going to get trounced in Scotland. Their formulaic winning of seats has been a banker for them. Not any more Alex Samon will slaughter them at the next general election.
(Scottish nationalism is another matter not for discussion here).
Jeff Knight, Coalville, England
If tax cuts for the rich are going to get the electorate to vote Tory, I'm not sure I'm living in the right country.
It would be easy for Labour to win back votes if they came up with popular policies that the Conservatives would never back. How about introducing a new public holiday each year until there is one in every month?
Andrew, Woking, Surrey
The only fly in the ointment here is the personal credibility of the Tory leadership. They have been advocating neo-socialism since Cameron became leader. Now they are changing tack not out of apparent conviction but for what is evidently a "marketing" response. So who will impute them with any sincerity and honesty?
Gervas Douglas, Auragne,
WHat a load of tosh !
Cameron will be seen to be far more innovative and clever than Blair. The next 20 years needs new ideas and policies, which the tories can deliver on. They have shown this over the last couple of weeks. Labour has no new policies of its own. Instead it continues to throw money at the NHS while not understanding how to run it.
Martyn Ryan, Bury St. Edmunds, UK
I agree. I think that as a general rule a small government and small public sector is more desirable. More of your own money in your own pocket. Less wasted in public sector inefficiency. The constant tax and spend era is hopefully coming to an end.
Colin, Edinburgh,
Cameron did not bait, he told nothing but the truth. Brown and the rest of Labour are exposed for what they are. How is it possible for a government to remain in power when they have the absolute cynicism and mistrust of the electorate? They don't even believe their manifesto is binding.
Helen, Northants,
A s always Mr Kaletsky is clear, coherent and authoritive.
Denver Watt, Osaka,
So here we are back in a traditional Labour situation.Strikes,rising
PRBR and a slowing economy. The fact is the Labour party only managed 10 years of growth on the back of Conservative modernisation of the economy.The fact that it has taken 10 years to unwind just shows how healthy the economy was when Labour took over. I remeber the last time Labour was in power (?). Power cuts, rampant Unions, refuse in the streets, in short mayhem. They may wear smarter suits but these charlatans are the same old Labour.
Adrian Bromhead , Bonn, Germany
If enough British voters have forgotten what a Tory Government smells like then they will get another. If all it takes is a Tax bribe and Brown wrongly stringing out the election timing, then Britain has not changed for the better.
As for the Tories, It is quite ridiculous to portray the Tory front bench as a potential Government. The Thatcher and Blair Governments both had an assortment of heavy weights and had developed their policies over many years and after numerous false starts. Cameron is not a Thatcher nor a Blair, he is a PR man and good at it too but he is not the calibre needed to be anything other than a disaster as a PM.
What is for sure, Brown needs a Communications Director fast. One that will do to the British media what Campbell did for Blair. Only someone that able will have a chance of balancing the British media's own spin and reality distortion and keep his boss's massive ego in check.
Ian, Toronto, Canada
It seems to me that the election should be held next month on the same day as the Australian election . The outgoing labour politicians could then all become advisers to the new Australian Labour government and the outgoing Howard government could find similar employment in the UK. Everybody happy.
Chris Murray, Melbourne, Vic
Oh give me a break! The reason why the General (thinking) Public do not like New Labour is the same reason why the General (thinking) Public have never liked New Labour. New Labour stole the clothes of the Conservative party. They wore them with a moderate amount of pride, and success, for a while. But, in the end, they were Tory clothes and they don't fit.
Do you really think that they can be replaced by a backward thinking Conservative party? This may come to pass but it would be a financial disaster for the country. See America and George Bush!
Anyway, why replace the Labour party with a pale imitation of Tony Blair (Cameron)? The days of the Conservative party (and it's imitators) are over. Therefore, move over Gordon Brown, we need a real Labour party in power!
Marc, St. Barthelemy,
I thought New Labour was a shift to the right. Is that not why it is New Labour. I live abroad, but with internet and other sources of communication, I'm acutely aware of the trends in Britain. Unfortunately there are no leaders, leaders who have performed and have noticeable experience outwith politics. We have a bunch of lightweights trying to show their miniscule differences from each other.
There are issues which must be emphasized:
Race relations within England's large cities.
Nationalism be it Scottish, English, Welsh or Irish
The Army's deployment in Iraq and Afghanistan
The European Community.
Climate change
It appears to me that these issues are being addressed by immediate public opinion and not based on great strategy.
David Cameron is a lightweight and despite any PR work will always be a lightweight. Gordon Brown, if he has a vision then it is lost on me. He will unfortunately be held to a higher standard, simply because he is Scottish.
Where are the Leaders?
Jim McCallum, Calgary, Canada
I will never vote Labour again. Mr Blair had lied to the world about Iraq's wmd's. How can anyone trust Labour again?
I'd rather vote Conservatives, even if they promised to bring back the old 'poll tax'. Thats how angry i am.
Mohammed, London, UK