Rationality? explain what it is? financial incentives drive capitalism..which ever way...life is about hunches but logic will prevail...for a few weeks all will seem ok, the credit system hit a peak, the bottom we shall see in years to come, short term you will be right...like those sales persons at countrywide...making the quick buck...

manuel, richmond,

If we really want to assess the respective capacities to predict the outcome here it would be helpful to have an objective asessment of Mr Kaletski's predictions over the last three years and the outcomes associated. I doubt this will be forthcoming.

Gris, PARIS, France

As a professional institutional investor for over 25 years, I am more than inclined to agree with Mr. Soros over Mr. Kaletsky. The the crisis has not yet played out fully. It is highly likely (I regret) that Mr. Soros will be proven right. I suggest everyone read Mr. Soros' book, Financial Alchemy.

MrInvestor, Wilton, USA

"I believe that the global credit crisis, far from taking a turn for the worse, is now almost over" - AK, "Goodbye to all that: the worst is over for the global credit crunch", Times, 14 Jan 2008.

I'm with FP (below) on this one - Private Eye have already noted the tendency of AK's predictions to be 180 degrees out of kilter. Soros has made billions out of the financial markets - if anyone's likely to be able to read the present situation, it's him.

Patrick, Moscow, Russia

I read the Soros article in the FT yesterday. It seemed so lucid, clear and so well argued in terms that anyone could understand, I kept it for re-reading if I should ever become unclear about what is happening in the financial markets and why.

Mr. Kaletsky begins his last paragraph with: "My hunch is ........" Mr. Soros would smile at that, I think. The winners and losers in the financial markets are recognisable by those with hunches and those who know exactly what's happening and why -- like Mr. Soros.

A G McFarlane, Bucharest, Romania

Perhaps Mr Soros is yelling 'Fire' because he's invested in a company that makes extinguishers.

Eric, Ottawa, Canada

No one has any Idea how far this will run, least of all you Mr Kaletsky
This is only the biginning.

Mike, Berlin,

There is an accumulated overspending by US since George bush presidency leading to excessive deficits funded by overseas money. there is an accummulated miscalculated over credit banks and financial institutuions on the basis of boom period low interest inflated speculative higher real estate market values as well as wage stream incomes as security for home loans subprime market. this is pending market distortion from natural market playing.It is
Any government or market distorting influences will come for correction one day to bring to market equlibrium of money and commodity global funds accountings.
the markets have the capacity to self correction provided proper law enforcement institutional environment is existing at global level. In the absence of it the process of market correction and stabilisation produces political or further financial ripples some times aggravating the frictions than diffusing it.
It is not recession in old sense of soros nor Kaletsky.

s.lakshma reddy, hyderabad, india

"You could trust Soros who actually puts his money where his mouth is, or Kaletsky who.... well exactly. "

Soros's claim to fame was his breaking the bank of england with his bets. It is extremely rare that gamblers get it that right that often, and what happens is they get to believe their own hype and hubris sets in.

Soros will turn out to be wrong becasue his self-beliefe is too great. he will probably stay rich becasue he makes his money by trading the markets as they are, not by trying to outguess them 60 years in advance.

e live in interesting times

Neil Murphy, cromer,

China, with a massive (unstable) population, NEEDS to keep on producing. The Middle East NEEDS to keep on producing oil.
They need the West as much as (perhaps more than) the West needs them, Chinese manufactures are hardly beyond the wit of the West to make. They will give the West the money with which to buy their output. It is in no-one's interest for the USA to stop consuming. Soros' skill (if that what it is) is that of a gambler. He judges the pyschology of others in the short-term not social pressures in the medium to long-term.
This is not about numbers it is all about pyschology.

Eddie Reader, birmingham, england

Hey, just get some comodities - that's all...

Majorano man, Prague, CZ

You could trust Soros who actually puts his money where his mouth is, or Kaletsky who.... well exactly.

Tom, London,

"Businesses driven by the profit motive have a natural bias to try to create wealth, rather than destroy it – and they elect governments to support, rather than sabotage, this process."

So busimesses elect governments, Anatole? Do you know something the rest of us don't?

W S McMordie, Ipswich, UK

Who has proven themselves-Anatole Kaletsky or Soros?

No brainer answer.

mgrelton, hull, uk

"Businesses driven by the profit motive have a natural bias to try to create wealth, rather than destroy it – and they elect governments to support, rather than sabotage, this process."

Didn't you mean "businesses appoint governments"? They allow the rest of us to think we do the electing.

Edmund, Bristol, UK

George Soros...hmmm....currency trader ??!!!....George Soros ..Share owner of ...an American air carrier 'Jblue'..stock going for $4.99 a share...when it was up to $12.00 ashare...hmmm....nay, he chock-full-of-nuts....

Mr Tim, san marcos, U S of A /Ca

Anatole, it isn't the worst crisis in 60 years - yet.

Given the mess that easy credit has created, governments around the world have two choices: allow asset markets to deflate, liquidating bad debts/stupid lending as a clean-out - or inflate the currency, which will "ease" the pain of debts but cause all sorts of other pain via high inflation levels like the 1970s.

Neither are very pretty, but that's what you get for letting credit get out of control.

Adam, London, UK

Mr Soros has made billions presumably from his past predictions.

So do I follow his predictions or Mr Kaletsky's?

When a Financial Adviser calls to offer me advice I always want to ask the impertinent question, "How rich are you?"

Frederick Phillips, Melbourne, Australia

Anatole Kaletsky has been plugging this message for a while......the goldilocks economy, the credit crunch is over, debt fuelled consumption on the back of a boom in house prices, there is no chance of recesssion etc etc, as the world economic situtaion spirals ever downwards.

He has turned into the "Corporal Jones" of the financial press..."Don't panic, Don't panic"...

rick, london,

Hey everyone, chill out and buy some undervalued stocks.

Simon, McLean, Va, USA

since Mr Soros is the paymaster of the Democratic party, I would take anything he says with a grain of salt.

Jerry, seattle,

I agree, I'd say it's the worst crisis since the depression rather than the end of the last world war...

CWW, Suffolk, UK,