Anatole Kaletsky
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
What Gordon Brown has described as the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s, appears to be over as suddenly as it began.
While the slowdown in Britain and Europe has only just started, the US economy now seems likely to avoid an outright recession as Washington's huge tax cuts, interest rate reductions and bank and mortgage bailouts appear in the nick of time over the economic horizon, just like the US cavalry riding to the rescue in a classic cowboy film. As these measures start gaining traction we should see fewer of the panicky headlines about a return to the Great Depression, even if the worst is still to come for the British housing market, the City of London and indeed the European economy, as I think it is.
But looking beyond our parochial concerns at the global prospects, there is now only one key uncertainty marring the signs of improvement: the huge increase in energy, food and other commodity prices since the start of this year. This now poses a far greater danger to the world economy and financial system than the correction in US and British housing markets and the related credit losses suffered by leading banks.
Commodity inflation is worse than housing and bank deflation for three main reasons.
First, rising prices of food and energy hit poor people hardest and therefore provoke turmoil among groups that would otherwise be politically apathetic, as well as causing greater losses in consumer purchasing power than falling house prices. Secondly, inflation is inherently harder for governments and central banks to deal with than deflation - any politician can cut interest rates and taxes to prevent a financial collapse, but counteracting inflation requires higher interest rates or taxes, which are always more painful to implement and damaging to growth. Thirdly, the countries most exposed to the risks of commodity inflation - China, India and other large consumers of energy and food - are precisely the ones that the world economy now depends on for most of its growth.
To make matters worse, the political pressures caused by energy and food inflation in developing countries is provoking panic reactions such as trade restrictions, price controls and credit rationing schemes that now seriously threaten the progress towards global market liberalisation and will almost certainly make commodity shortages even worse in the long term.
To set against these scary features of global commodity inflation there are, however, three items of good news. The first is that the recent bout of food and energy inflation does not seem to reflect a permanent imbalance in global supply and demand any more than did the price spike of the 1970s. The recent doubling in rice prices does not mean that the world is running out of food and this week's prediction by the chairman of Opec that oil prices may soon rise to $200 has less to do with careful analysis than with greedy wishful thinking.
The Chinese and Indians are not eating any more rice today than they were three months ago. The doubling of rice prices cannot therefore be explained by a sudden shift in supply and demand. And the same is true of oil, since the global growth of oil output in the past two years has been substantially faster than the growth of consumption. The key factor, as in the last great commodity inflation of the 1970s, appears not to be any immediate supply shortage but panic buying by consumers, governments and financial investors, in anticipation of possible future shortages of supply.
The second item of good news is that the recent run-up in commodity prices may already be reversing, even as the public protests and panic headlines intensify. Such a contradiction between market behaviour and public perceptions would be perfectly normal in speculative markets, as implied by the stockmarket adage, “buy when there's blood in the streets”. Wheat prices, for example, have fallen by 25 per cent since their March peak, wholesale pork and beef prices have corrected sharply and even rice is down 10 per cent from its recent high.
Meanwhile, gold is languishing 15 per cent below the high it hit at the worst point of the credit crunch, nickel and lead are down almost 50 per cent from their speculative peaks and the most important industrial metals such as copper and aluminium have recently failed to break through the levels they set in 2006. It is really only energy and corn-related agricultural products, whose prices have been driven up by the US and European bio-fuel subsidies, that are still hitting new highs.
The last piece of good news relates to the other two. If commodity prices are being driven mainly by financial speculation and panic buying rather than a sudden shift in supply and demand, there are several reasons to believe that this trend may soon reverse. As demonstrated by the panic buying of technology stocks in the late 1990s, market behaviour in such phases of price overshooting cannot be explained by “fundamentals” such as the long-term outlook for supply and demand. What happens in such overshooting phases is that a one-way market develops, in which investors who look at fundamental values lose so much money that pricing is determined entirely by so-called “momentum investors” who buy more of whatever assets or commodities are rising the fastest, trusting in the slogan: “the trend is your friend”.
Such trend-following behaviour cannot last forever but it can continue for a long time, as demonstrated by the trend-following manias in housing and technology stocks. One of the most intriguing - and potentially encouraging - features of the present commodity speculation is that it has coincided with similar trend-following speculations in three other important financial markets. The dollar-euro exchange rate, the yield on US Treasury bonds and the interest premiums demanded on loans to virtually risk-free borrowers such as General Electric or the US government-backed mortgage banks.
It seems quite likely that all four of these trend-following speculations have been related and that all four of them would turn at around the same time. This now appears to be happening. About a month ago, the market for high-grade credit began to improve after the rescue of Bear Stearns. Two weeks later the yield on US Treasury bonds suddenly began to rise. Last week the dollar seemed to make a low against the euro and has since risen sharply.
Could it be that the commodity speculation will now also reverse? Nobody can say for sure, but one way to try to understand speculative markets is to use the psychological techniques of following price charts, known as “technical analysis”. This is ridiculed by economists but regarded with respect by most professional investors.
This week Brian Marber, one of London's most experienced technical analysts and one who has been consistently forecasting higher oil prices, told his clients that the trend was probably reversing. Let us hope he is right.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the collective power of smart thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Flip MinoHD Camcorder
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
42,945
2008
71,450
Car Insurance
Not Specified
MI6
UK-based
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Save up to £1,000 per couple with Elite Vacations at the five-star Constance Lemuria Resort
and do the British Isles this Summer.
Save up to 60% with Oxford Hotels and Inns
Try our inspiring luxury holidays to the Indian Subcontinent and South East Asia.
Great offers available
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
We are only looking at the short term problems! Whilst the government has dropped the plans to increase duty, and is trying to increase ouput from OPEC , this is doing nothing for the long term, as it is just increasing our reliance on oil!
Andrew, London,
Lets hope the price of oil falls soon. I live where we have no public transport and rely on a car. The area also has low wages for a number of workers, and many people are considering taking what action they can with some of the highest fuel prices in the country.
A Dowe, kings lynn, england
The only question I have about the speculative mania driving up energy prices is can I get in on it before it comes to an end?
Larry, New York,
An average Indian eats a small fraction of the meat eaten by a person from other continents, especially the Americas. And factory farming is marginal . An Indian eats cereals such as rice, wheat, barley or coarse grains eg. millets and meat once or twice a week..Look for obesity in any country!
acharya, Bangalore, India
I sympathise Dave Larkman, but don't come here - it's £5 ($10) a gallon - almost all tax.
A decent Social Security system, free education, free medical treatment, was always going to be expensive - but affordable. Unfortunately, it's acted as a magnet for every free-loader on the Planet.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
Perhaps its time to restrict food sales to that wonderful cartel called OPEC.
Give them a tast e of their own medicine.
It costs the Saudis 3 dollars a barrel to lift their oil.
Yet all they grow is a lot of inedible sand.
Raising food /commodity prices would get petrodollars back
wilfred knight, orange county, usa
Electricity suppliers are putting up their prices by another 25%, they obviously feel that prices are going to remain high, I mean, they obviously aren't going to be profiteering, are they?
David Leslie, Perth, Scotland
The more I read, the more I am convinced that the oil industry is just a big con. I welcome a high oil price, it will release funds for the engineers and chemists of the world to go and find alternatives and take power away from the big oil companies, who have had it too good for too long.
LJS, EDINBURGH, Scotland
I know the price of oil has peaked because last week I convinced myself that the price can only continue to rise-a sure sign its time to get out.
Dave Larkman , White Salmon , USA
China and India are eating less rice but more meat, much more. Hence the rise in grain prices which isn't going to go away soon. Given your record on getting pretty much everything wrong, and today's Bank of England report saying everything's rosy, then I'm pretty sure we're all doomed!
Polly Parish, tenby, wales
Credit bubble, Oil bubble, Chinese equities bubble, Agriculture bubble, property bubble.... The low interest rates have made every man and his dog a fund manager and they are all chasing the same investment as the greater fool theory runs wild!
Kv, London,
Whatever the hope in this article of better days to come, there is still the real problem of using food crops to make vehicle fuel which is foolish and unnecessary. All biodiesel should be made from waste and no other source should be permitted. Tehcnology exists and should be exploited.
johnwg, London, UK
The main problem with alternative energy or alternative fuels, is the installing the infrastructure to collect the energy, or dispense the fuel.
When was the last time you drove past a hydrogen fuel station here let alone in China or India?
This will not change before 2050, let alone 2020.
Calvin, London,
Sir, the recent comment about oil prices is true, the USA and a number of countries are sitting on large amounts of oil be it conventional or unconventional (tar sands) and OPEC will soon drop prices when the west and Asia start too look at these sources more and more, oil and gas will run the world for the next 100 years and we will have a number of these economical cycles.
bill foy, Liverpool, England
"zero pollution compressed air car"? That is not true at all, It requires electricity to compress the air before it gets to the car. Electricity that is currently generated from burning fossil fuels. Recharging a battery uses less electricity, so electric cars are the future not air cars.
GM, Brisbane,
Oil mania and oil dominance are both going to end soon, because of the birth of the zero pollution compressed air car. It doesn't use any of their products. By 2020, the majority of cars in America and Europe could be CAC's. Goodbye evil, old, oil world we used to know.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
You can pump more oil, and mine more gold, but can you stop humans continually making another one and a half million mouths to feed every week?
DAVID VINTER, Louth , Lincs., UK.
"The Chinese and Indians are not eating any more rice today than they were three months ago." Incorrect. The populations of these two countries are increasing by a combined 26 million people per year. So today they have 8.5 million more mouths to feed than 3 months ago.
Ted, London, UK
Mr. Kaletsky could do a better analysis by calling things by their REAL names, e.g. "speculative market" should be called GREED-DRIVEN market. As long as greed is permitted to play its present all-important role we will always see these wild market swings and the poor will always be the victim.
Hans de Koning, Leiderdorp, Netherlands
Apparently the banks have been speculating big time on oil. Expect to see some more massive losses reported by these most inept organisations. Unfortunately their stupidity and greed affect us all, no matter what we do. I think the time has come for regulators to ringfence UK retail banking.
Jonathan Spencer, London, UK
So on the back of the BoE (Brown/Darling) asking the lenders to commit financial suicide for queen and country and catch 'the falling knife' all we have to worry about now is raising prices. I don't think so Anatole Kaletsky, but nice try on the morning of local elections. Much pain to come.
D Case, Newquay,
It is with typical New Labour arrogance that they preach the higher morale ground trying to encourage 'environment friendly' policies while at the same time reaping the rewards through a higher & higher tax grab they then squander our money through ill thought policies.
Darren Coll, Dundee
Mr Darren Coll, Dundee,
So the speculation on oil and food is comming to an end (as it did on stocks and housing) the question is where will it go next. the speculation requires these peaks and troughs to be profitable, but having hit housing and now food and fuel what will be next ?
ben, folkestone, uk
Surely if Governments are concerned about the price of oil all they need to do (which I admit may be easier said than done) is convince OPEC to announce a huge increase in production. That should signal a downward spiral in prices and put an end to the speculators who have driven the price up.
peter fieldman, paris, france
'...appear in the nick of time [...], just like the US cavalry riding to the rescue in a classic cowboy film.'
If you are not already aware of it, have a listen to Gil Scott-Heron's 'B Movies'. Superb commentary that was versed in the time of Ronald 'The Ray-Gun'.
Alistair Kipling, Birmingham,
This may not be the turning point for oil, where supply turns down past its peak. However, that point must come eventually, as it takes millenia for oil to for and only decades to burn it up. What oil and food have in common is that a small proportional deficit between demand and supply is painful
John, Edinburgh, Scotland
The idea that there is plenty of oil is based on unaudited government claims in places like Saudi, where reserves are said to be exactly the same as they were although billions of barrels have been used.
For a realistic view based on field by field analysis, see here:
http://www.energybulletin.net/1
David Martin, Bristol,
Technical analysis like astrology is a very useful technique for remaining calm when your unsure what is happening or why. Seeing the Elliot wave your worry concerning the unknowns in the future are reduced - its a pure gamble should your wave function hit the price of things to come however!
kevin, Lincoln, UK