Anatole Kaletsky
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What went wrong? This week two of the most successful centre-left politicians of their generation are asking themselves this question as their dreams of glory collapse. While Hillary Clinton at least has the consolation of carrying on her political career as a respected and powerful senator, perhaps even as vice-president in a Democratic “dream ticket”, Gordon Brown can only look forward to two years of parliamentary humiliation, internecine backstabbing and lame-duck impotence, followed by electoral defeat. At the moment, however, the common features of these two defeated politicians are more interesting than the many differences between their plights.
What Mr Brown and Mrs Clinton most obviously have in common is their personality, or lack thereof. Both are quintessential machine politicians, obsessed with tactical calculation and policy detail; lacking in eloquence, likeability and unifying vision. These personal deficiencies suggest an obvious conclusion: that the salvation of progressive politics on both sides of the Atlantic will depend on the emergence of charismatic new leaders, Barack Obama in America and a still-undiscovered reincarnation of Tony Blair over here.
There are, however, three other plausible explanations for the Clinton-Brown debacles with much deeper implications for progressive parties everywhere than the simple injunction that they must choose a leader with a charming smile and a good turn of phrase.
The first is Iraq. This is the elephant in the room that has been inexplicably ignored in much of the commentary on where Clinton and Brown went wrong. If Mrs Clinton had not backed President Bush at the start of the Iraq war and for most of the period since, the challenge to her candidacy would never have got off the ground and Barack Obama would still be an obscure local politician from Illinois. If Mr Brown had broken decisively with the Blair-Bush foreign policy that he inherited, as many of his supporters (including me) hoped, then the disillusionment with his leadership, among both traditional Labour activists and the champagne-socialist intelligentsia, might never have set in.
Moreover, a clear shift of policy in this one vital area would have created the genuine sense of change and post-Blair political renewal. This would have obviated ludicrous expedients such as the renaming of government departments and plagiarism of Tory tax policies with which Mr Brown tried to create the illusion of change but succeeded only in drawing attention to his lack of ideas.
Worse still, Mr Brown's “have your cake and eat it” approach to Iraq revealed a second political characteristic he shared with Mrs Clinton, which has been much more damaging politically than lack of ideas. This was their almost addictive use of “triangulation”, the fancy political name for what might otherwise be called hypocrisy, saying one thing to one audience and the opposite to another, in the hope of winning support from both sides: for the war in Iraq and against it; for lower taxes and more redistribution; more public services and tighter control of government spending; less regulation and more state planning; greater individual freedom and more encroachment on civil rights; “evidenced-based policymaking” and media-driven knee-jerk actions such as yesterday's U-turn on drugs laws.
Such policy contradictions are not in themselves politically disastrous; in fact they exist in every party manifesto and government programme.When politicians are doing well, triangulation works in their favour: audiences trust in their integrity and share their vision. They want to believe what they are told, even if these words are contradicted by other speeches or actions.
This is why Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were masters of triangulation (indeed, they introduced the word to the political vocabulary) and why Mr Obama seems to have survived the controversy over his relationship with the Rev Jeremiah Wright.
But when politicians' reputations are sliding, this dynamic goes into reverse. Instead of getting credit for both the positions they espouse - for example, better public services and lower taxes - the public gives them credit for neither.
Such a loss of credibility is particularly dangerous for left-of-centre politicians because of the last, and probably the most important, common feature of the political reverses suffered by Mrs Clinton and Mr Brown.
This is the alienation of prosperous, idealistic middle-class voters and the resulting loss of support from the elite liberal media that tend to reflect their views. For right-wing parties the attitudes of the bien-pensant liberal media do not matter much, because conservative politicians who advocate low taxes and small government can generally appeal to most prosperous voters on the basis of pure economic self-interest. Left-of-centre parties, by contrast, can only achieve power by creating a coalition of economically motivated working-class voters and highly educated middle-class voters, who vote for left-wing parties because of their liberal ideals.
That, at least, seems to be the lesson of recent history, especially since the end of the Cold War. A left-wing politician who loses the support of this liberal constituency is probably doomed.
This happened to Mrs Clinton when idealistic middle-class voters and their favoured media outlets decided that she had lost her integrity over Iraq - and also through her alleged racist insinuations against Mr Obama, which were for some reason considered more despicable than the many patronising and demeaning insinuations about Mrs Clinton's femininity.
In Britain, Mr Brown has been undone by a similar process of middle-class disillusionment. This started with his prevarication over Iraq and the way he insulted the intelligence of the voters last autumn, starting with the election that never was, continuing with the plagiarism of Tory tax plans and climaxing with the dithering incompetence of the Northern Rock crisis.
He might still have kept some support among the liberal intelligentsia had he not embarked on an extraordinary campaign of illiberal measures this year - his campaign for 42-day detention without trial, his insistence on identity cards, his attacks on church schools, his veto against a pay rise for prisoners and now his irrational policy reversal on cannabis, which must make it almost impossible for any liberal-minded voter to support Labour. With all of these policies, Mr Brown appears to be pandering to the editorial columns of the Mail and the Telegraph, instead of The Guardian and The Independent.
If Mr Brown thinks he can create a winning coalition for Labour from readers of the Mail and Telegraph, he will indeed turn out to be the greatest left-of-centre politician of his generation. Failing that, the future of progressive politics now rests with Barack Obama.

Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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You are right Anatole, they are both consummate politicians but, in the process, have lost the 'vision' i.e. what appeals to all & sundry. Sad but true.
ian cheese, london, uk
I don't know much about Mrs Clinton, and hope I won't have to .
You imply Mr Brown's problem is Iraq. That is incorrect. His real problem is he has been exposed as a weak, incompetent, cowardly, dishonest, dithering liar who is unfit to run the country.
cuffleyburgers, Lucca,
Strangely, we still use the word 'progressive' for political ideas that were current between 1945 and 1980.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
American Democracy? As far as candidates go, it is a race for the lowest common denominator which, after all, is the essence of Democracy.
Ian cheese, London, UK
Brilliant piece. But.. more simply, centre-left politicians «can't fool all the people all the time». Centre-lefters, as the name implies, don't know where they stand. Thus, they don't know much what they are doing.. and FOR WHOM they are governing. People just don't know what to expect from them.
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
Liberal intelligencia - an oxymoron surely?
Mac, Teignmouth, Devon,
Brown is not a Leader, he could dance naked in the streets and still lose, he is not a winner, he is not a good decision maker, the Labour party are fresh out of any intelligent people that is why they have to steal all the Tories ideas, just to cling onto power.
Ben, London, UK
Brown is a very cautious politician. He will not take chances. His only hope is to force a confrontation with the Tories by withdrawing from Iraq which would probably put them in the position of supporting an unpopular war.
gareth, llanelli,
Indeed, for a man who is supposed to be very clever, Brown has made some remarkably stupid decisions. Like many others I cannot comprehend why he persists with ID cards, 42 days etc. And he just made himself look foolish over the election which we all know he intended to have.
Paul Owen, Birmingham, UK
I think Tonye you mean the benefits of his stewardship for Scotland. Everything he has touched for England has been a shambles - whilst he was Chancellor and PM. If you think he's that great then I'm sure you will welcome him as a leader of the Scotland when Alex and Wendy get you independence.
john, romsey, uk
Isn't 'champagne-socialist intelligentsia' a contradiction in terms?
Alfred T Mahan, Westbury, Wiltshire
Tonye - Scotland is obviously a very different place to England then! Ok , I'm biased but with the exception of house prices (for me as an owner with no mortgage), I cant think of a single thing that is better now than it was 10 years ago, but I can think of many, many things that are worse.
Billy, Leeds, West Yorks
After Bill Clinton's 1992 victory someone wrote that in all elections people either vote for continuity or change, and that Bush's misfortune was to be a continuity candidate at a time when people wanted change. Ironically, I think Hillary was in the same bind, the zeitgeist was for change and Obama
Richard Briscoe, Amersham, England
Wrong! Brown has lost the support of not only unskilled workers but that large group in society that sustained Margaret Thatcher, skilled workers, employed and self employed. They have borne the brunt of triangualation for eleven years and are sick of it.
Bob, Faversham, UK
Good analysis Anatole, based purely on your column's emphasise on the importance of charasmatic new leaders is David Cameron not the reincarnation of Tony Blair?
Rohit Rai, Glasgow, United Kingdom
I cannot see that these two have a deal in common. Clinton is feisty, smiley, noisy, hip hoppy, full of attack while Brown is quiet, unsmiling, unstirred, solid as the Bank of England and now apologetic. They are however firm establishment people and both appear wearied by events and time.
Boris, Belgravia, London
You a re quite clear in the article that you are or were a Brown supporter. I can never take your views on economics seriously again. Your judgement is serously flawed
John pierpoint, London,
Adrian Gilbert - 'Progressive' when used to describe politicians is actually a technical term for politicians who espouse redistribution of wealth from the rich to the poor via fiscal mechanisms. (The opposite of 'regressive' - a tax that affects the poor more than the rich).
Daniel, Glasgow,
"champagne-socialist intelligentsia" is one of the most oxymoronic terms I've ever read.
Pretty much the only good thing about Brown is that he's not Hillary Clinton.
Neil McF, Southampton, England
Tonye, O, from Dalgety Bay
You are perfectly correct if you are a Jock otherwise he has been a total disaster. Massive taxation to fund massive public spending and no tangible results unless you live North of the border. Even the Jockinese Labour Party appear to have declared UDI.
Tom Hanna, North Yorkshire,
Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were consummate liers. If another word for lying is 'triagulation' it sounds as hollow. Hillary Clinton is shunned for her hypocrisy so typical of Blair and Bill Clinton. Brown is an introvert, old Labour closetted socialist
who thinks that voters are idiots.
Gary, LONDON,
Superb analysis - the parallels are striking. You could also mention their christian socialist roots, their "roundhead" work ethic, their political (and in Hillary's case actual) marriages to cavalier charmers, and their Nixonian control freakery. Cameron/Obama as nemesis completes the picture
Simon David, Singapore,
"But when politicians' reputations are sliding, this dynamic goes into reverse. Instead of getting credit for both the positions they espouse ... the public gives them credit for neither."
Call it the "credibility crunch" or "rhetorical de-leveraging". Ha ha!
Andy, London,
Gordon Brown did not "inherit" the Blair-Bush foreign policy. He was in the Cabinet at the time of the invasion of Iraq and there is still a doctrine of Collective Ministerial Responsibility in this country (Robin Cook and Clare Short resigned!). He has blood on his hands just as much as Blair.
Michael, London,
Brown's problem is that his political skills were formed during opposition rather than government, and much of the time in office is spent opposing the tories. It would be an interesting study to determine when Labour believed it was the Government, and when the tories realised they were not.
Mike Kelly, Milton Keynes,
Anatole, Another point - both waited for more than a decade in the shadow of and as secondary to their shallow and flashy others (Bil and Tony) in the hope of their glory days. Both messed it up spectacularly when the spotlight fell on them. Idealistic mind does not mean a great leader.
Prabhat, UK,
Wrong! The liberal intelligentsia are an irrellevence. Brown has lost the support of unskilled workers and the large section of society that sustained Margaret Thatcher, skilled workers, small business people, the self employed. They have quietly borne his underhand machinations for eleven years.
Bob, Faversham, UK
Why is it that commentators like the esteemed Mr Kaletsky fall for the hype and refer to left-wing politics as 'progressive'? There has been nothing progressive about Brown's term as PM. He, like the now forgotten Ken, is a total reactionary. Progress today is with the Tories.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge,
"Instead of getting credit for both the positions they espouse - for example, better public services and lower taxes"
Does the author really think we have better services and more money in our pockets? He is living in a different Britain to me.
Nobby Clark, Perth, UK
I would question the emphasis Anatole places on Iraq and instead revert to the character problem. GB dithers, claims credit where it is often not due and is generally both ungracious in victory and petulant in defeat. Hillary seems to lie, cast aspersions and do anything to climb the slippery pole.
Guy Thompson, London,
The whole problem with liberal politicians is that their principles are incompatable with effective governance. Once in power, they are forced to exercise a modicum of responsibility and new lib heroes arise to assuage the angst of their idiotic constituency, only to disapoint in their turn
Kev Wilson, Slough,
I agree with Chris, London, and Jon Livesey, Sunnydale. Instead of taking a reading of the political situation on the ground and making a simple decision.
Who said: "You can only please some people some of the time; but not all the people all of the time? A wise American?
albert hall, hove, england
A good analysis. However whether Anmerica was ready to embrace either a woman or a black President in 2008 was doubtful. The Democratic Party have probably thrown away the election. Similiarly the Labour Party made a disastrous mistake in choosing the Scot Brown to lead an English government.
Michael Riley, London, London
Brown and labour simple have to go, ID card, and CCTV and teh orwelleian nightmare they seam determind to create alone should be enough to get rid of them, but at the end of day, they are crap, which should be enough to get rid of any one.
Mr W Jones, Liverpool, England.
Mr Kaletsky repeats more often than is good for his credibility that Mr Brown was one of the most successful leftwing politician. He also likes to add that Mr Brown was a great steward of the British economy. If that is the best the Left can do, keep them out of power for ever.
Alex Story, Wakefield, Yorkshire, UK
I was amazed to read this crazy artical by A.Kaletsky.
You are supporting a man Gordon Brown who has taxed us to death, done massive damage to the Pensions in this country
lost control of law and order via his own social enginering cant make a speech or a decision and will wreck this country.
Rob
Rob Stanton, Wokingham, UK
Brown's plans for 42 day detention are pure political posturing. He thinks that by proposing such a preposterously illiberal measure all parties will oppose him. There will be compromise but, crucially, he will look tougher than the Tories.
This might have been clever in 1998, but now looks crass.
chris, london, uk
A good analysis, as usual, but one other problem in common for Clinton and Brown is a generational one. Young voters have the advantage of not being prisoners to a triangulation argument. Since they are not making yesterday's choices, they are not swayed by yesterday's arguments.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
Anatole, Gordon Brown is still Prime Minister and will remain PM for another two years. He has done more for the Country as Chancellor and Prime Minister. The benefits to the country of his stewardship is currently being enjoyed by your readers. Cameron should learn about policy from the lib dems.
Tonye, O, Dalgety Bay, Scotland