Anatole Kaletsky
Win a fitness package worth more than £3,000
What will historians of the future recall as the most important event in Europe during the summer of 2008? Will it be the jump in oil prices to $140 or the aftermath of the great financial crisis? Will it be the orderly succession to the Russian Presidency of Dmitri Medvedev? Will it be the return of 1970s-style stagflation - or maybe even the collapse of Gordon Brown's Government after a summer of discontent? Or will it be the Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty?
Even to mention such a parochial, bureaucratic event in the same paragraph as the economic and political upheavals shaking the world this summer is to invite ridicule as a narrow-minded Euro-obsessive.
That, at least, is the view of the British media and political classes, who lost all interest in the Irish “no” vote within days of this astonishing event. And surely “astonishing” is a fair adjective to describe this overwhelming democratic reaction to the political direction of Europe, by three million people who have risen, in a single generation, from penury to become the Continent's wealthiest nation, as a direct result of joining the EU?
Such “ingratitude” by the Irish people towards the European political elites may strike us in Britain as perfectly natural, since it corresponds so closely to the way most people here feel. Moreover, all three of our main political parties seem to believe they have a mutual interest in treating this as a case of “small earthquake, not many hurt”.
In continental capitals, by contrast, the Irish “no” is seen as a tectonic shift that could transform the landscape of Europe for decades to come. Certainly the Irish “no” has triggered much more intense debate from Brussels, Berlin and Paris to Prague, Warsaw and Moscow than it has in London.
The continental interpretation is likely to prove more prescient than the studied indifference of the Westminster Village. First, The “no” vote presents Europe with a deeply embarrassing political dilemma.
Either the EU must abandon the trappings of statehood - a president, a diplomatic service and ultimately an army - created by the Lisbon treaty; or Europe's leaders must back away from their self-righteous pretensions to democracy by overturning a clear and unequivocal democratic judgment, on the ground that voters made the “wrong” choice.
At the very least, the Irish vote - coming after equally clear rejection of previous EU treaties or institutional initiatives, such as the euro, by referendums in France, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden - will deprive the EU's continuing political development of all democratic legitimacy. Anyone who claims that the EU has any interest in reducing its “democratic deficit” will in future be laughed at.
However European leaders respond, the Irish “no” will be seen as a historic confirmation of the anti-democratic nature of the EU project. If the EU political project is now abandoned, it will be a testament to its repeated rejection by voters across Europe. And if the project continues despite the Irish objection, it will be final proof that EU leaders don't care what voters think.
But the damage to the “European project”, as it is conceived in Brussels, Berlin and Paris, will go far beyond such ideological symbolism. As a practical matter, European governments will find it almost impossible to proceed with their political designs. This is not, of course, the message being sent out to the Irish Republic and the outside world from the capitals of Europe (including London). The official line is that the other EU countries will continue to ratify the Lisbon treaty and all the institutional developments will go on. Ireland will then be left in a minority of 26 to 1 - and will be asked to think again.
If the Irish Government refuses to do so, or its people vote “no” a second time, fairly explicit threats are already being issued about expulsion from the EU. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German Foreign Minister, was quoted in The Financial Times this week as suggesting that “one way to implement the treaty was for Ireland to withdraw temporarily from the process of European integration”.
For the German, French and EU leadership such strong-arm tactics are now the only way to achieve the political advances they seek - and it is surely right to expect such threats to intensify in the months ahead. Where the conventional wisdom seem wrong, however, is in assuming that these bullying tactics will work. The Irish are a notoriously stubborn people who have withstood many generations of external bullying and they may now start to treat Europe, instead of Britain, as an overbearing colonial power.
To make matters worse. the popularity of the Irish Government, along with all the other governments of Europe, is certain to fall further in the year ahead, as the European economy declines. In Ireland's case, economists now expect the first recession since the early 1980s, hardly a propitious period in which to conduct a second referendum.
This brings us to the second reason for believing that the Irish “no” will permanently change the history of Europe: the Euro-federalists have very little time left either to reverse the Irish “no” or to find a way of expelling Ireland from the EU. This is because of a looming deadline that does not yet seem to have been noticed in Brussels, Berlin or Paris, but which commentators and politicians in Britain should surely recognise.
If Euro-federalists cannot find a “satisfactory” solution within 18 months or so to the Irish problem, the prospects of bullying Ireland into acquiescence will completely evaporate because of a political event here in Britain - the next general election. If the Tories win it, there will no longer be any chance of isolating Ireland in a 26 to one minority. With a Conservative government in Britain a prospect by the spring of 2010, Euro-federalist efforts to isolate or threaten Ireland, would inevitably be opposed by Britain.
Any alternative “process of European integration”, as Mr Steinmeier diplomatically describes the possible expulsion of recalcitrant Ireland, would have to take place without Britain - and with Britain opting out, Sweden, Denmark and several Central European countries, such as the Czech Republic, almost certainly would too. Under these circumstances bullying the Irish voters into changing their minds would result not in Ireland's expulsion, but in the break-up of the EU. That is not a price that either the Germans or the French would pay for the right to have a president of Europe.
So time is on the side of the Irish in their dispute with the Euro-federalist bullies. All the Irish have to do is stick to their guns and keep talking. Luckily the Irish are good at both.

Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£Excellent+ executive benefits
Torres and Partners
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
Alstom Power
Europe
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
Special Offers now available
At the new sophisticated
Encore Las Vegas Resort!
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Ireland would have nothing to fear from exclusion from the EU. The country is the gateway to Europe from the west and could follow the example of Singapore. I am sure that the British people would be thrilled to have a strong low tax and free trade area on their doorstep.
Tony Atkins, Cairns, Australia
The Irish really voted against the Black Hole of "an ever closer union" and a Soviet Union of Europe which will become the graveyard of little nations, such as Ireland.
Most Europeans would much prefer a European Confederation
closer to the old Southern Confederacy
rather than a US of Europe.
Lennox, Toronto,
Federate Europe is good idea. As a french citizen I would like Europe give its citizens a "copy/paste" of US Constitution (15 pages, including amendments in lieu et place of the 400 pages offered to us). So, I voted NO. Not only Ireland said no, but also frenchies and dutch peoples.
Jutharat, Marseille, France
All you no-sayers, are you sure you want a Europe with borders, long lines at custom points and different currencies. ????? Where it takes you half a day to get to another country??? Like it is with the little Englander-country???? Most of the people voting have no idea.
rose, Brussels,
...the army, while the Germans were kept (quite comfortably) in POW camps. The only reason Ireland did not join into WWII is that the fragile Irish economy, infrastructure and population would not have lasted an intensive bombing campaign by the Germans, it was self-survival only
AnneMarie, Cork,
Kaletsky is right. The Irish have stripped away all the EU's pretence at democracy or listening to its people. As politicians squirm again to try to force their viewpoint, many voters recall Britain and France also reneged on a popular vote, pretending the "Treaty" was different! Oh, yes?.
J. Baggaley, Nicosia,
It seems now that the Austrian Leaders didn't read it either. Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer has said that his government wants a referendum if the EU's Lisbon Treaty is modified in any way. Silly man if he'd read it he'd know it's self-amending so will be modified as and when the EU dictate
Susie, W Midlands, uk
I believe that a strong cooperation based on sound institutional grounds is the only way euro countries can survive in a world that in 2050 will be dominated by superstates like China, India, Russia, Brazil and the US. Do you really believe that little Britain will have a voice alone? Delusional
Horace, Firenze (Florence), Tuscany, Italy, EU
"The illegal they'll do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer".
Michael Phillips, Dundee,
L. Hughes, Bucks County, PA, USA:
The Irish didn't fight in World War II, they were neutral, in fact they even made plans with Hitler to form an alliance and use Irish soil to stage an invasion of Britain, which fortunately never came to fruition. Bet that doesn't sit well with you does it?
J Roberts, Manchester, UK
The EU will offer them a sweeter deal, and the Irish people will accept the revised version of the treaty, which is what they were angling for with the first rejection. They're a canny bunch, the Irish.
In the end, it'll still be Britain that makes the stand-if Britain still stands for anything.
Anth, Walsall, UK
More likely to be bribery than bullying. If the Irish play it right they could likely extort several billion euros of promises from the EU mafia courtesy of European taxpayers.
Mike, Wednesbury,
Anatol Kaletsky Full marks for your excellent journalism. I have read your article more than five times, as i find it to be very informative. i shall be looking forward for you opinion of The Lisbon Treaty. The treaty will go down to EU HISTORY wouldn't you agree with me sir? THANK YOU.
Daniel Salaman, NICOSIA, CYPRUS
In failing to commit to a democratic process throughout successive treaty amendments, the EU has produced the seed for its own failure in the long run. Europeans will say No, at the next opportunity to vote, for no other reason than to punish our politicians lack of open democracy
David Downes, Chester, UK
Living in the northwest of Ireland, clearly the persons who voted no are now expressing regret for their actions and the government will allow about a year while the choice is starkly drawn, are we in or out. No doubt you can bet the Treasury that 65% will vote in favour of staying in the EU.
Leo Regan, Sligo, Ireland
Associating an Irish "No" vote with British Euro-sceptics or the Tory party would be guaranteed way to pass the 2nd Lisbon vote. Sinn Fèin are certainly unlikely to want to share a common anti-Europe stage.
Richard, Dublin, Ireland
Most comments focus on the rights and wrongs of the Irish developments, but the comment piece accurately pinpoints the real dilemma for the EU. The deadline dictated by the last possible date for the UK General election. This is central to the urgency of the EU's approach more than anything else.
Damian Hockney, London, uk
I actually see the EU 'project' staggering on for some years to come. Even the Tories would not pull the Treaty whatever they may say in opposition. Political elites will collaborate with the EU state while the general public will grow more and more hostile. It will collapse - just not for a while.
Mark, Berkhamsted,
If we have a 2nd referendum here and the YES camp wins, that will make it 1-1. Maybe we should then have extra-time or a penalty shootout between the two factions to settle the issue. I don't think so, the Euro politicians understanding of football is the same as democracy and 1-1 is a win to them.
John, Limerick City, Ireland
I think you are all missing the point here - Ireland is not generally Eurosceptic, and there is broad support for the European project - the 'No' vote was largely a local protest vote against politicians in Ireland in the wake of scandal after scandal
Eamonn, Dublin,
"The British (after next election) and Irish fighting together for their freedom. Irony, anyone?
Graeme (in exile), Amsterdam, Netherlands"
Only if you're stuck in the past and completely ignorant of the feelings of many English people that never understood why we were there in the first place!
Alex, London,
As a democratic entity the EU has failed. The people of Europe are in thralldom to a corrupt and failed project mascarading as a democratic power. Our politicians are supine and refuse to tell the truth to their electorates. Preferring to carry out the bidding of corrupt unelected officials.
M. Butcher, W-s-M, England
Wait until the Irish say:" NO, NO, NO" on the re-run, then the earth will open up and swallow the EU whole. That is if it doesn'nt do it itself before that.
albert hall, hove, england
Surely it must be time for David Cameron to promise the people of Great Britain, if a Consevative government, is returned at the next election, a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
Brown knows full well that he would certainly lose a referendum if held now. I say back the Irish for their guts!
Peter Hodge, Rolleston on Dove, UK
What about the democratic wishes of the Spanish and those in Luxembourg who both voted overwhelmingly in favour of the EU constitution? It seems to me that you voice only seems to count when you say No.
Paul, Wicklow, Ireland
As a voter who had the rare priviledge to cast a NO vote in the recent referendum I see no reason to change my opinion in the event of another referendum. To expect a nation which spent seven hundred years gaining freedom from one empire to surrender sovreignty to another is unrealistic.
Michael, dublin, ireland
I think the EU, or something comparable, is necessary for Europe to thrive and prosper in the 21st century.
What is at issue here is not the need to negotiate united gas tariffs are concerned (obvious), but whether stewardship or prison wardering is 'leadership'.
Jurgen Klinsmann as leader?
Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK
Conor Shanghai, Efficient?, Demorcratic?. Are you mad. These are the two words least likely to be involved in the Lisbon Treaty.
No reform of CAP
No reform of voting practices
Looks like rewarding ineffiency and the lack of democracy for the benefit of the inefficient and undemorcratic
Nick Mackenzie-Rowe, Halesowen, England
Do people realise that if the EU applied to join the EU it would not be allowed. No democracy see.
Even Iran allows elections !!
Nick Mackenzie-Rowe, Halesowen, England
Just how much more evidence do we need that we should not be members of this institutionally corrupt, terminally incompetent, anti-democratic gang of self-seeking, lying political thugs, totally determined never to take NO for an answer.
Kaletsky is wrong only in that collapse is inevitable
Idris Francis, Petersfield, UK
Big earthquake? You must be joking!
The unelected will drive the unheard, abetted by the uncaring (parliament) to the destination it has planned for us. I don't believe there is any likely change or possible escape. And yes, I'm very angry and would vote to leave the EU tomorrow.
Richard Long, Eastbourne,
Bless the irish, to be sure!
Ian Cheese, london, uk
Many of the Irish who fought in the British army in WWII were "defending the freedom of small nations" against a larger usurping force. Sound familiar? The EU is failing because it is invasive, micromanaging, and too centered on what France and Germany want. Eireann abu!
L. Hughes, Bucks County, PA, USA
I saw somewhere that 23% of the population voted no! Obviously a lot of people could be happy with the treaty but they don't think it is worth going to the polling stations for.
I see the governments defeat as a sign of politicians that are no good. It is laughable that they got beaten.
Peter, Southampton, Southampton,
Yeah yeah, heard it all before Anatole. If only any of your analysis were correct
Were you born yesterday?
Roland, Amersham,
Let's hope the Irish say "No" a second time.
But the pressure and propaganda will be huge.
Now the government is even commissioning an analysis of why the voters said "No" in a move with pretty sinister Orwellian overtones.
Whatever happens, Bruseels will keep on trying, threatening,
pat, Vienna, Austria
The EU is undemocratic, wasteful, corrupt & inefficient. No-one wanted it, it has been foisted on us. We were happy with an EEC, not an EU. Brown refuses to recognise our democratic right to a referendum, something most British people want. What is he, our MP's & MEP's afraid of??? Defeat perhaps?!
ray, leominster, england
It's hard to see to what problem the Lisbon Treaty is a solution. If the EU is working successfully, we don't need it. If the EU is failing, we don't want it.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
In a choice between abandoning trappings of statehood & demonstrating the anti-democratic nature of the EU, they will opt for the latter.The leaders of France & Germany don't give a fig for the democratic will of the people & Gordon is complicit. Keep the blarny going Ireland & then say NO again.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
The EU masters in Brussels will simply adopt the same methods as Gordon Brown used to deny the British people a REFERENDUM VOTE. They will modify the unanimous vote requirement in favour of a majority vote. The voice of the Irish people will then become as meaningless as the many voices in Britain.
Leonard, LondonEngland,
At last someone has seen the future! Of course the Irish vote changes everything but as an expat Brit living in Athens you would think the Irish hadn't voted. Greece is enmeshed in the Siemens scandal so the Irish vote is never mentioned. The EU must change or die, as is the way with all empires.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
Everybody in europe wants to say no, but you know what will happen if they dont get the chance, a revoultion as that is the only way forward now to kick out our goverments who do not listen to us and take power our self's.
Mp's our so corrupt they now do it out in the open!
Mr W Jones, Liverpool, England
"Europe's nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation." -- Jean Monnet -- 36 years ago.
Steve Webb, Southwell,
John Livesey USA
sorry John but over half of europe already voted NO and were made to go and vote again by threats and intimidation ( as usual) if ALL of europe had a vote there would only be one answer (its NOT yes) we are all for economic intrgation NOT political. the reasons are real !!!
tony, spalding, uk
What the eurocrats seem to ignore is that the only reason why Ireland are the only ones to say no is that they are the only ones who could. No other country held a referendum this time. Too risky, of course. Thank you, Irish, for saying no. Make Europe more democratic first and then ask us again.
Ed van Akkeren, Delft, Holland
I want my chance to say NO to the EU treaty. The dangers of being run by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels far out weigh any benefits that there might be. What we need now is a government that puts the British people first, and the British identity.
Chris Ashley, Ely, England
completely incorrect to say that Ireland has NOT been a net benficiary from the EU. The direct payments to farmers, training grants, infrastructure grants tell only a small tale.
More importantly, access to market of 400 million consumers that has led to the US becoing Irelands top FDI source
Conor, Shanghai,
People need to realise how small ireland is, all of econimic and political endeavours of substance are and will be done through the EU. Hence the goal has to be to make the EU as strong and effecient and democratic as possible. The treaty helped this goal but none of the voters knew it
Conor, Shanghai,
I'm getting out of Europe... it will be the first victim of this century.
Horace, Firenze (Florence), Italy
Actually Graeme, 50000 Irishmen joined the British Army in World War 2 in spite of the official neutrality of the Irish Free State. Brave men who put historical animosity aside to fight for a higher cause than mere nationalism.
Mike, Hertfordshire, England
European leaders need to think through their response very carefully. I am pro-EU but I expect leaders to accept the democratic decisions under their rules. ALL nations should be forced to have a referendum to see the true feeling on this. Withdrawal would be disastrous for all. Watch Asia!
Richard, Plymouth,
The Irish have not been net recipients of EU cash as is commonly assumed( snouts in the EU trough and all that). They have naively relinquished massive oil,gas and fishing resources on behalf of 'The Project'. Their current wealth stems from their tax haven status not EU handouts.
Ed Smullen, Athlone, Ireland
Hi all well i think a second bite at this cherry will be a bad move,as the people have spoken once,twice,and again,will make thrice.This makes me ask what are we about .
josullivan, Dublin, Ireland
Abybody who lives in London will know that the nature of the British electorate is changing. As more and more Central Europeans settle here, it becomes harder for a British government to take an anti-EU line. Try telling people who got here by virtue of a single Europe that we want to break it up..
Mark, London, UK
The end of the EU is a British dream and to think that an "X" amouth of countries will leave the Union to follow a British "opt-out" is a fantasie. If the Irish are unhappy with the EU then they should live, in another words - "take their money and run". The British should follow the lidership..
Fabio C, London, UK
But this article is right in one thing: The Irish "no" will change Europe as there will be no more enlargement until this is solved, which means, NO TURKEY. That should suite the British.
Fabio C, London, UK
the Irish economy is starved for liquidity.
Serious and dramatic changes are occuring with effects on capital construction,employment,immigration/emigration and public services.The Euro is kept tight because it suits the Germans.That disconnect is why "EUROPE" is not yet an entity and was rejected
JOHN RYAN, SOUTH DAKOTA, USA
I disagree. I think that what the stage is really set for is the acceptance of a two-speed Europe. The UK electorate will not vote for full integration, nor will they accept Brown's Parliamentary coup d'etat on Lisbon, yet we have no right to prevent other EU members integrating if they want.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
The British (after next election) and Irish fighting together for their freedom. Irony, anyone?
Graeme (in exile), Amsterdam, Netherlands