Anatole Kaletsky
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What makes this miserable British summer even worse than the weather or the baleful economic news is the sense of hopelessness - the feeling that the country is politically leaderless and that nobody has any credible policies for dealing with the problems ahead.
Not only do we have an incompetent and confused Prime Minister leading a feeble and exhausted Government for an interminable lame-duck period, but the Opposition is almost as bad, seeming to be nothing more than a frothy public relations concoction, attractive enough on the surface, but totally devoid of any coherent ideology or serious ideas.
That, at least, is the dinner-party consensus in Westminster. Not even lifelong Labour loyalists expect a recovery for the Government, with or without Gordon Brown. But universal disdain for the Government does not translate into enthusiasm - or even respect - for the Opposition.
A typical example of this despair was a leading article in the Financial Times on Tuesday, denouncing both main parties' populist response to the oil crisis. The Tories have proposed reducing fuel duties, while Labour has hinted at postponing increases announced in the Budget - both motivated by crude electioneering with no economic justification, in the paper's view: “The Government should press ahead with increases in fuel duty [but will probably not do so]. Meanwhile, the Conservatives look more and more likely to win the next election. However, with each announcement, they look less and less like a government-in-waiting.”
But are the political prospects really so dismal? On the Government side, I fear that the answer is yes. At the beginning of this year Mr Brown faced several challenges on foreign policy, Europe, civil liberties, energy and transport, which I described on these pages in early January. Most merely required him to exercise some self-restraint - to close Northern Rock; to resist pointless meddling with the tax system; to distance himself from US policy in Iraq; to abandon a futile and counter-productive war against opium in Afghanistan; to drop the plan for identity cards; to refrain from bullying MPs on pre-charge detention and the European constitution. Above all, he had to stop trying to be all things to all men in an effort to dominate the newspaper headlines.
On these counts and many others, Mr Brown has chosen exactly the opposite course to the one that might have restored his political credibility. Accordingly, he has been written off even by his erstwhile supporters, among whom I would have included myself until this year.
But are the Tories as clueless as almost everyone assumes? It is fashionable to ridicule all politicians for intellectual incoherence and lacking substance. Such sneering criticism has the great advantage of making the critic seem intellectual and substantial, as well as politically independent. But at the risk of appearing naive and biased, let me suggest that some of the Tories' policies stand up to scrutiny and make a lot of sense.
I am not suggesting that they have all the answers or would do a better job in government than Mr Brown. With almost two years until the next election, there will be time enough to make that assessment. All I want to do is to illustrate that politics in Britain is not completely devoid of decent ideas.
Let me begin with George Osborne's proposal to reduce fuel duty, which provoked so much derision this week, not only from the Financial Times. In fact, the idea of using fuel taxes to compensate for fluctuations in global oil prices - with the tax rate going down when prices shoot up, and rising when prices decline - is a good one, in terms of fiscal stability and energy security. The advantages are described in the consultation paper A Fair Fuel Stabiliser published by the Tories this week.
Such a regulator would help to stabilise inflation and consumer spending. But an even more important benefit would be for long-term energy security. If the Government automatically increased fuel duty whenever the oil price fell below a certain threshold, such as the $84 a barrel used in the Tory Green Paper, it would send a powerful signal to energy users that the era of cheap fuel is permanently over and efforts to conserve energy will never again be undercut, as they were in the 1980s and 1990s, by a collapse in the price of oil.
Let me also mention two more Conservative policies that generated cynical headlines recently.
David Cameron's speech about our “broken society”, calling for clearer judgments on what is right and wrong, was widely ridiculed for “daring to push into the perilous terrain of morality”, as one commentator put it, while his suggestion of a prison sentence for people carrying concealed knives was denounced as inconsistent with the Tories' newfound respect for civil liberties and as a throwback to the right-wing extremism that lost them three elections in a row.
In a totally different field, the Tories have been ridiculed for apparent contradictions between their opposition to enlarging Heathrow airport and their pro-business image, and their support for other unpopular infrastructure projects, such as nuclear power.
Yet there is nothing inconsistent in these positions. There is no inconsistency between traditional civil liberties - as shown by Tory opposition to 42 days' pre-charge detention and identity cards - and tougher penalties against those found guilty by the due process of law.
This is shown by the maverick position taken by David Davis against 42-day detention, despite (or perhaps because of) his even more maverick support for tough law enforcement, including the death penalty.
Neither is there anything inconsistent in pointing out, as Mr Cameron has, that further development of Heathrow as an airline hub would not be in Britain's economic interests or even in BA's.
The only inconsistency between such positions is not in their intellectual content but in the soundbites that pass for political analysis these days. Tabloid headline-writers may be at a loss to decide whether the Tories should be classed as right-wing authoritarians or woolly liberals, as traditional pro-business blues or tree-hugging greens - but these are arguments against sound-bite politics, not against the policies that the Tories have begun to develop.
Mr Cameron seems to have understood that developing policies for a complex modern society requires a synthesis of ideas from different parts of the ideological spectrum. Politics is not just a matter of inventing slogans to try to impress tabloid editors - that is the failed politics of Gordon Brown.

Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Compulsory voting is an absurd idea: the last thing we want is people who don't know or don't care about the issues actually influencing policy. You can enforce voting, but you can't enforce good judgment on polling day.
Nick, London,
" make it a civil act that you must vote or be fined £25. That will cure the problem
James , Brighton, England"
So someone who doesn't believe in democracy and wishes to avoid the "democratic process" is to be punished? How very tolerant of you, James!
Steve, Sutton,
The English have a different mentality to the Celtic peoples.
The English dislike socialism and a big state, believing in
individual freedom and enterprise, the English voted Blair not
Labour, now Labour has reverted to type, the English will
return to the Tories, the Scots might vote SNP?
Roger, Weymouth, England
Brown is a committed Socialist. Whilst house prices rose, the English looked away. Welfare bred claimants & state spending increased inefficiency. Brown, used Stealth taxes to fund his accession. Voters now awaken to inflation, taxation, collapsing house prices & unemployment . Exit Brown...
John Barkham, Burton-on-Trent, UK
'The damage done to society by the Left over the last decade will take many decades to rectify.' I recall similar being said about the Right in 1997. Conclusion: Large majority Government is no good for anyone. I hope for minority Gov next and real concensus politics. Seems to work in Scotland
Justin, Livingston, Scotland
Try reading Will Hutton's "The State we're in"
Jon Kingsbury, Southampton, UK
The goal of modern politics should be to set a very wide societal framework which allows people to do as much as possible.
Conversely, those who abuse those freedoms and go outside of that framework should feel the full force of the law agaisnt them.
Nicholas J. Rogers, London, UK
"Accordingly, he has been written off even by his erstwhile supporters, among whom I would have included myself until this year."
How come it took so long for an intelligent man like you, Anatole, to see through Brown? He's always been a disaster for Britain.
Adrian Gilbert, Tonbridge,
Brown has been a disaster ten years in the making !
Now those who told us how brilliant the Iron Chancellor was are admitting his utter failure.
Our economy is in a mess - no thanks to 'prudence' Gordon.
David, Swindon, UK
So the process of writing up the Tories in advance of a general election has begun. I'm more or less convinced that 'Nu' Labour is a failed project, but still far from convinced that the Tories will lead us out of the mess, except for their favoured few, if their last stint is anything to go by.
Bob Ericson, Tewkesbury, Glos,
As James from Brighton mooted, and I believe it is so in Australia, it may be a good idea to make voting compulsory in a general election. That way, at least, if you don't vote then the cops can get you for that ,even if they can't pin anything else on you.....interesting concept?
Rumbold, High Wycombe, England
GB is a disaster upsetting his traditional supporters by adopting Conservative lite policies, the man wont accept he at fault. We need PR, a good start to end the 40% and less Consevative and Labour Governments and make it a civil act that you must vote or be fined £25. That will cure the problem
James , Brighton, England
There is no prospect of a conservative government really increasing fuel duty when oil prices fall. That policy would end at the first round of fuel protests. Which is why it's a sound bite and not policy.
The other sound bite is the 'jail knife carriers'. It's not reflected in the policy paper.
Toby, Surbiton, UK
Maybe there is still hope for Britain. Cameron appears to be committed and sincere in his desire to restore Britain as a place its citizens can be proud of. I wish him well.
Tony Atkins, Cairns, Australia
Hmmm ... it seems you are waking up to the extent of GB's folly, Mr Kaletsky. Like you, I am not certain that the Tories have it correct yet, but Cameron's speech on social responsibility is a good starter. The damage done to society by the Left over the last decade will take many decades to rectify
Edwin, Bucharest,
At last a fair and unbiased article. Very well written and a good read.
Kirsty, Merseyside, UK
I have no idea where the idea that oil will drop below $84 comes from, perhaps exploiting the hydrocarbon resources of Titan, but Anatole is supporting a very effective mechanism for transferring money from the British Treasury to Saudi with real world prices.
Market clearing rates determine price.
David Martin, Bristol,