Anatole Kaletsky
Win a fitness package worth more than £3,000
According to the overwhelming majority of financial analysts in the City of London and Wall Street, the world is now in the worst economic crisis since the 1930s. Anyone who doubted this cataclysmic consensus - and I must admit that I played down the credit crunch, describing it initially as a “storm in a teacup” - must surely be eating humble pie after the events of last weekend, when the two largest financial institutions in the world - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, despite the US Government effectively guaranteeing their debts. The debts of these two US mortgage insurers come to about $5 trillion, equivalent to the combined national incomes of Britain and France.
If the US Government can no longer be trusted to meet its financial obligations with dollars that it can print on its own printing presses at will, then there really is no place to hide. That seemed to be the predominant view in the markets, reflected in a doubling of the cost of insuring the US Treasury's own bonds against default. In such conditions, the only rational course for savers and investors is to pull their money out of all banks or investment funds, whether in New York, London, Frankfurt, Hong Kong or Tokyo, and to put every spare penny into oil, gold or other commodities that might have some lasting value after paper money is totally debased, along with all shares, bonds, mortgages and other financial obligations based ultimately on nothing more substantial than elaborately printed paper signed by politicians and central bankers.
This is more or less what happened on Monday and Tuesday when stock markets around the world plunged in response to the US Treasury's seemingly unsuccessful attempts to restore confidence in its mortgage insurers, while oil hit a record high and gold jumped to within a few points of the all-time high that it had reached just before the rescue of Bear Stearns and Northern Rock.
But before you conclude that the sky really is falling in and that relatively optimistic commentators (including me) have been confounded, consider the following. In the past few weeks, US industrial production, consumer spending and trade figures have all come in much stronger than expected and now point unambiguously to accelerating economic growth, rather than a further slowdown. On Tuesday the Federal Reserve Board published a sharply upgraded estimate of 2008 growth. The near-recession growth range of 0.3 to 1.2 per cent predicted in April is now seen as a much more respectable 1.0 to 1.6 per cent. Even the gloomiest private economists on Wall Street now expect second-quarter GDP figures to show a strong recovery to growth of around 3 per cent.
Looking at the recent indicators, the clouds are now much darker over Britain and the eurozone than the US. The correction in housing, which has now been running for almost two years in America, started in Europe only a few months ago. The main effects of the slowdown, in terms of falling house prices, lost jobs and weak consumer spending, are only just starting to be felt in Europe - while in America the worst has probably passed. For Britain, the outlook is arguably even worse than for the rest of Europe because its economy is so dependent on financial services and housing, the sectors suffering the biggest hits.
Meanwhile, government spending, the only other sector of the British economy growing strongly until a year ago, is also bound to suffer a severe squeeze as the public finances go from bad to worse.
Having said all this, however, there is nothing even in the British figures to suggest a disaster on the scale expected by most City economists - or implied by the recent collapse of shares in British banks.
What then is going on? There are two possible explanations for the total decoupling between the economic figures and the financial markets. The first is that investors are dispassionately analysing and forecasting the future, while economists such as myself and, more importantly, those at the Fed and the Bank of England, are indulging in wishful thinking, based on mechanistic projections from the recent past.
The second possibility is the polar opposite - that the financial markets are caught up in one of their periodic bouts of emotional, straight-line projections of recent losses. Looking at the perverse responses to economic news recently in the world's most important financial markets, it seems quite plausible that investors today are as blind to economic realities as they were in the dot-com bubble, the Enron panic and the sub-prime mortgage boom.
But there is another, structural, reason why financial expectations may be out of tune with reality - the “hyper-finance” revolution in the banking system.
To see what I mean consider the following example. In the old world before the arrival of “hyper-finance”, if a family wanted a £100,000 mortgage, they would simply go to the Halifax and borrow £100,000. Now consider what happens in the new financial world. The family would borrow £100,000 from Northern Rock, which would sell £100,000 of bonds to hedge funds, which buy these with £100,000 borrowed from Bear Stearns, their prime broker, which would raise this money by selling £100,000 of commercial paper to Citibank, which would then borrow £100,000 through the inter-bank market from Halifax.
So now the original £100,000 mortgage transaction has created £500,000 of new debts.
In principle, this entire chain of transactions could be squeezed, like a concertina, back to the original £100,000 transaction between the householder and Halifax, reducing the total amount of credit in the banking system by 80 per cent. This huge reduction in credit would do no great harm either to the homeowner or the ultimate lender, but eliminating all those intermediate transactions would devastate jobs and profits within the banks.
The upshot is that the main people suffering pay cuts and job losses in the present crisis are bankers, rather than industrial workers as in previous slowdowns.
Not surprisingly, this gives financiers a jaundiced view of the world. Nobody can say for sure whether financiers or economists will turn out to be right about the present crisis. Past experience suggests that financial market expectations are usually wrong at or near-cyclical turning points. It is always possible, of course, that the present financial panic really will be different from every other and will trigger the greatest economic crisis of all time.
But as they say in the markets, the four most expensive words in the English language are “this time is different”.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£Excellent+ executive benefits
Torres and Partners
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
Alstom Power
Europe
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
Special Offers now available
At the new sophisticated
Encore Las Vegas Resort!
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
At last Anatole you've opened your eyes!
The US is actually about 25%-50% through this mess. Why is the fed asking for more powers? - There will be several more bank collapses before the 1st quater 2009.
James, Banff,
Employment markets are weakening globally, specifically temp markets are all accelerating their decline. US temps are falling at 30k every month, French temps are down 7.5% YonY, also UK online job ads are down over 20%. Bullish economist hold on to employment positives - surely it's cracking?
Tom Sykes, London, UK
I don't buy these figures on growth in US production. Car sales are falling hard, house building is plummeting, people are dining out less, flying less. Just look at GM. Even Japanese car makers are faltering. Where is this growth happening? I just don't believe it!
Ted, London, UK
There are three types of people, optimists, realists and pessimists. Being an optimist puts you amongst the likes of Rumsfeld, Bush and a captain of the MCC touring Australia. Unfortunately reality ends up biting you on the behind. Mac and Mae being Insolvent to the tune of $2 Trillion is that bite.
Stephen , Tamworth, Australia
Some call it securitisation others call it usury. It is making a gain by borrowing and lending. Is that a moral way to make a living? Islam doesn't think so. Maybe they are right this time.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Anatole - you're at it again! Please take off and throw away the rose tinted glasses you wear. Once unemployment starts to really get going, and ordinary people start defaulting on mortgages, the sub-prime episode will seem like a sideshow.
MikeRight, london, uk
The bankers took more than their fair share of the low interest rates that stable non-inflationary growth enabled.
It is the inter-bank margins that are being squeezed out.
The city of london and its supporting cast of lawyers and accountants need to be exposed to a sectoral recession.
Richard Boyce, Haywards Heath, UK
Sounds a lot like the LMX spiral that hit the reinsurance market 15+ years ago after Piper Alpha, Lockerbie etc. all over again...Look how long it took Lloyd's to recover from that. The FSA et al should have picked up on this. Once again the so called experts fail to learn from history!
Rick, Surrey,
The banking system created financial instruments to produce huge paper profits through gearing using other people's money. It lost connection with reality and was a game like pass the parcel. Only the music stopped. Tighter regulation is the answer to get the banks back to their original function.
peterfieldman, paris, france
How does a company continue to operate if it has $5 trillion debt?
Phil, Reading,
"...the main people suffering pay cuts and job losses in the present crisis are bankers, rather than industrial workers as in previous slowdowns".
This might be because there are virtually no industrial workers left in the USA or the UK. All those jobs have "gone East".
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Anatole, the so-called real economy is built largely on credit withdrawn from inflated property - last year at £50bn per anum. Without this the consumer will have to suffer and our public services drastically cut, including removal of generous pension benefits.
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
The squeeze - exemplified by the concertina is just about the best analogy of the true happenings of late. Everyone in the series takes a cut, pays a bonus to produce - exactly nothing. Now we pay for all that smoke, all those mirrors, and pay we will - us at the bottom of this reckless pyramid.
Tom Taylor-Duxbury, Ludlow, UK
You just do that David L, Chipping Norton.
We need people like you to keep on taking the losses otherwise the rest of us will have to.
Alex, Salisbury, UK
"Neither a borrower, nor a lender be" - a William Shakespeare quote that may seem rather extreme, but frankly, the banks did go over the top with their limitless speculation based on immeasurable greed. Now that someone's pulled the chain, let all that is bad be washed away for a new, clean start.
Peter, Geneva, Switzerland
Man-child Anatole Kaletsky still refuses to grow up. Your analysis is only that of what has been made transparent Even you cannot look through the opaqueness of a banks balancesheet if they hide it.
Glynn , Kingston,
The "worst" has not come with regard to the home mortgage fiasco. Many more of the subprime loans will not adjust until spring of 2009.
I must ponder: Is it due to inflation that segments of the economy appear to be growing? I spend more for less.
P.S. The U.S. is insolvent.
Jennifer, Granbury, TX/USA
"...the main people suffering pay cuts and job losses in the present crisis are bankers, rather than industrial workers as in previous slowdowns." As a person running a business I find this statement really strange. Industry is really feeling the pinch. The only savings we can make is cut staff soon
Al, Oxford,
It seems to me that whatever forces are currently coming into play, some balance on the 'fear - greed' continuum is being restored.
David F George, Ubatuba, Brazil
The USA and UK governments have a limit on how many Banks and how much taxpayers money can be generated to continue the rescue of Banks. I see big cuts in government spending, it is inevitable, the priority must be to save the financial institutions..
Geoff Berry, Bolton,, UK.
it seems to me that the savers loose out worse. we have our money deposited in the bank, the bank needs that money to lend to the house buyers. at high rates of interest, but keep the savers interest rates low claiming to keep inflation down, while the saver takes the risk of the bank going broke
gordon, plancoet, france
As Gordon Gecko once said, "Most fund managers are sheep and sheep get slaughtered". The best financial managers will still continue to make money, the rest probably weren't good enough in the first place. Bring in the cleavers.
David Lea-Smith, Edinburgh, U.K.
Excellent. Long experience tells me that when the financial pundits predict that `this is it - it's the big one, etc etc' we are coming out of it.
Fill your boots now chaps!
David L, Chipping Norton, UK
But a financial crisis can easily become an economic crisis. (Banks have no money to lend, & increase prices to make profits etc.)
We are all dependant upon the central banks, regulators & govts & how they react in this situation. Banks must be forced to declare their true losses & recapitalise.
Alistair Nicholls, Manchester, UK
The Credit Multiplier is economics 101 and the fact that it works almost as well going backwards is something that people and businesses - including banks - easily forget. They consequently borrow to the hilt and then complain when the consequences bite.
Duncan McGregor, Melbourne, Australia
I think you are forgetting that the banks use the fractional reserve system. The 100k loan is multiplied x9.A bank is only required to have 10% of its balance sheet liquid. The mess can not be "unwound" back to 100k because the bank has lent the "new" 900k based on the orginal loan.
albsure, london,
I suspect John Livesey is only partially correct. Yes, securitization does spread risk - but if you can't identify who is at risk, and the extent of the risk they're exposed to, - or would like to pass on to you - its small wonder that the financial system seizes up.
Rogerccanada, Kamloops, Canada
But Anatole, first you deny there is a crisis, and now you say its just a small one? The outlook for "post industrialisation" economies which follow the debt fuelled consumption model you frequently espouse is grim - you still havent grasped that the UK economy runs on cheap credit, which is gone.
rick, melbourne,
The other problem with this simplistic analysis is that the failure of the intermediary institutions mentioned would not only hurt financial workers. If Citigroup failed its depositors lose money (if not bailed out by the overstretched Fed), which means 'the man in the street' losing his savings.
Laurence Davison, Sydney, Australia
The other piece of paper that you forgot to mention that has once again been proven worthless .... the economists qualifications.
Garth, Australia,
The last 6 paragraphs are simply the best most understandable precis of how we are, where we are, I have read in any publication.
Now, how do we report the perpetrators to Equifax?
Mmmmm thought not......
Steve, London,
You are forgetting something. When people got their mortgages from the local Bank, that Bank took all the risk. And in that "Golden Age" that everyone now remembers, 500 Banks failed in the US in the eighties alone.
Securitization has its problems, but one of its virtues is to spread risk.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA