Anatole Kaletsky
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Whatever happened to the triumph of global capitalism? Even more than “the end of history”, the idea that “we're all capitalists now” became an article of faith around the world from the early 1990s onwards. In the past few years even the few holdouts - countries such as Libya, Cuba and North Korea - seemed on the point of acknowledging that markets, competition and private enterprise were the only rational way of organising economic life, regardless of politics or history or religion or national cultures.
But just as the triumph appeared to be complete the innermost sanctum of the global capitalist system suddenly collapsed.
The nationalisation last weekend of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest financial institutions the world has ever known, signalled the complete failure of the biggest, most dynamic, most innovative and competitive markets that have existed in the history of capitalism - the Wall Street stockmarket and the market for US bonds.
Their failure has been so obvious, that even the most capitalist administration ever, in the world's most capitalist country, had decided to wipe out the private owners of its biggest and most important financial companies and replace them with state-appointed bureaucrats.
The reasons for these failures - related, ironically, to the dogmatic belief among regulators, politicians and financiers that “the market is always right” - have been much discussed. Much less widely considered have been the consequences of this justifiable disillusionment with market forces.
Even more than the mind-boggling $5,500 billion size of the two US mortgage companies, it was the political significance of their nationalisation that marked it out as an historic turning point. This was, after all, the biggest expropriation of private property undertaken by a government outside the former communist world, yet there was absolutely no protest, nor even discussion, about the terms imposed by the US Treasury.
Viewed from across the Atlantic, where nationalisations of relatively unimportant industries such as steel, shipbuilding or coal provoked years of parliamentary opposition and legal argument, it seems astonishing that the US Government could simply announce itself as the owner of these giant companies, wiping out overnight some $20 billion of shareholder wealth. But what is even more significant is that nobody in American politics or business objected to this anti-capitalist coup.
This lack of any serious debate about the sudden fate of Fannie and Freddie may help to stabilise the US economy and housing market in the months ahead, since American homeowners should soon enjoy a potentially unlimited supply of government-financed mortgages. But the effects of this nationalisation on the future of the world financial system will be more far-reaching and profound.
The Fannie and Freddie precedent implies that any other bank requiring government support in future - certainly in America and probably also in Britain and Europe - will have to agree to its shareholders being wiped out. The need to punish shareholders to deter future reckless behaviour is an argument heard even more vociferously in Britain, and especially in the Bank of England, than in the US.
But will such punitive treatment strengthen market capitalism? More likely, it will do the opposite. Most big banks have recently raised extra money from their shareholders to strengthen their finances. Yet many - including Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, UBS, Halifax Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays, Deutsche and Credit Agricole - are still widely believed to be undercapitalised.
Until last weekend it seemed probable that most of these banks would be able, if necessary, to turn to their shareholders for extra capital, if this was needed to cover unexpected losses or to expand their business. But any such attempts to raise new capital are now doomed to failure.
It is hard to imagine Saudi Arabia or China wanting to add to the huge investments they have already made in Citibank or Merrill Lynch, now that they have seen the enormous losses deliberately inflicted by the US Treasury on investors who pumped $20 billion of new money into Fannie and Freddie since November last year. Particularly so as the two mortgage giants raised this money with the explicit support of the regulators and the US Treasury.
It was hardly surprising that Korean suitors withdrew from talks to recapitalise Lehman Brothers, the weakest of the remaining US banks, immediately after the Fannie Mae rescue was announced.
A likely consequence of the Fannie and Freddie rescue, whose punitive terms the British and European authorities have strongly endorsed, is that no leading bank in America, Britain or Europe can hope to raise new capital, either from private investors or from governments in Asia and the Middle East.
Meanwhile, an overzealous determination by regulators to prevent reckless lending in future suggests that banks will need even more capital than in the past to increase their lending. Much of the growth of credit and bank lending in the world economy will therefore have to come from governments instead of the private sector, at least for the next few years.
It is hard to imagine how squeezing private ownership out of the banking system could strengthen the cause of free enterprise and free markets. An early sign of which way the wind is blowing will come from a vote in Congress later this month on a request from General Motors and Ford for $25 billion in subsidised government loans to support their investment programmes through the energy and housing crunch. A few months ago such a request, which would, of course, be illegal under EU state aid rules, would have been unthinkable. Today, however, the question in Congress is not whether to grant this subsidy; it is whether to leave it at $25 billion or raise it $50 billion, as both Barack Obama and John McCain now propose.
With banking systems around the world hobbled by the lack of private capital, the motor industry will not be the only supplicants demanding state support. There will be many more demands from industries, workers and consumers, as much in Britain and Europe as in the US.
If the US loses faith with free markets, compromises the protection of property rights and hobbles its financial markets - all of which it has dramatically done in the past seven days - then Europe will surely follow suit. Emerging economies such as China and India will become even more ambivalent about market economics. Instead of We Are All Capitalists Now, There Are No Capitalists Left may become the ideology of the next decade.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Communism/Capitalism [delete as appropriate] is a great idea in theory but it was abused by the government and a cartel of powerful individuals. They made sure that it never operated the way that it was intended and that only The Few benefited.
fuguez, mayfair,
Lets just hope Mr Kaletsky is wrong on this one because if all the major players go cap in hand to their governments because of a failure to run a business profitably or efficiently were all in for a lot more tax. Indeed what incentive would any CEO have to run profitably.
David Barton, Truro, U.K
There are no free markets. The banking system is run for the benefit of the bankers. They big boys look after themselves, let the smaller ones go bust and get the government to bale them if they have to. And suppress Gold and Silver prices.
Alan Heaton, frankfurt, Germany
Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac started off as government "nationalised" organisations. What's the big deal?
Stan, Slough, England
Is state support for the motor industry illegal under EU state aid rules? Not if you get the taxpayer to fund it directly by restricting the supply of parts to main dealers only. So, no more car repairs at reasonable rates by indi garages then which funny enough, I read about only yesterday!
Catrina, Essex,
Err - no! Fannie and Freddie were always bad economics, even if once good politics. Should have been unwound years ago - they had become a scam for passing the value of the government guarantee to shareholders, and spent vast sums lobbying to keep the flow of money going. Messy - but good riddance.
David, Hampshire,
That's funny, A.K. At the beginning of the week you were confident that the US government's actions would do just the trick and start the American engine running once again. A sudden change of opinion, what?
Steve, Sutton,
The disdain in this article would be justified if it had been Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch.
Fannie Mae and other GSEs would make lousy examples of the capitalist system in operation.
They had long been seen as distorting the markets. Ask any reader of The Economist Mr Kaletsky.
A May, Brussels,
This article is emblematic the reason that capitalism is failing. The problem isn't that we didn't have regulation, but that we had too much. Fannie and Freddy are not capitalist icons, but socialist government interventions. Capitalism is dying in the west, but its because of government meddling
Pliny, St. Louis,
We have to accept that all banks are greedy, ambitious and ruthless. The failure is that of governments and politicians to impose a simple regulation - a maxiumum ratio of debt to income. Saving was for mugs, spending on visible material goods (without the means) became the norm.
S, Doncaster, UK
Anatole must be some kind of ideologue to see this as failure of market. Totally barmy,
In anycase it is true that the US has effectively become socialist.
Greg Lorriman, Leatherhead, UK
One thing seems to be missing in all this, ie a non free market political culture to lead a way out of this Neo liberal cul de sac. Possibly the neo liberalisation of life, including marketisation of education, may have left us poorly equipped to find a successful way forward for western democracy.
Vince, Milton Keynes, UK
Rebecca, et al, the $5 trillion is only part of the story. More than $60 Trillion worth of derivatives is also written against their debt. As a financial scandal, this rates up there with John Law's Mississippi scheme and the South Sea Bubble. As Greg Mankiw blogged the other day, thanks LBJ!
David, Canberra, Australia
Let's see. A Fed that artificially decreases interest rates below free market rates. An implicit guarantee that reduces the GSE borrowing rates and allows them to grow massive with reduced competition. The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. Etc. Etc. Yeah, I'm sure that it is a market failure. Ugh.
Mark, Edison, USA
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were never much more than semi-detached government organisations (with vastly overpaid executives) anyway, which is why they were able to borrow and lend money on extremely favourable terms, thereby squeezing out conventional mortgage providers. So what's new?
Arnold Ward, Weybridge, UK
Not 5.5 billion -- Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae owned or guaranteed more than $5 TRILLION in mortgages. Had they been allowed to fail, global credit markets would have seized, at least according to a former undersecretary of the Treasury I heard speaking on the topic.
Rebecca, Ridgeland, USA
Hey!! Are we heading for a"new world order", with time clock showing a complete spin off.With private entrerprises and free market globalisation on its wreck, can we see the advent of "mixed economy" with nationalisation of pvt. sectors and socialistic set up...they are economic cycles,like 1930's.
Sandy, New Delhi, India
Let's not press the panic buttons and draw conclusion.We saw Soviet Russia breaking Kremlin's corridors thru Glasnost.Now we are seeing US reeling under economic slow down, Chinese red dragon too is loosing its strength.Many emerging markets are coming up..we need a "New world order" to stabilise it
sanjeev dheer, New Delhi, India
Here is a brilliant article I can definitely agree with. The USA seems to be changing its name to the United Socialist Republic of America. Or is it following Venezuelas nationalise everything big example? Fanny/Freddie will go down in history as the beginning of the end of US economic supremacy.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
It's essential to maintain the free market ethos.Centralized Govt ownership means an end to indivdual autonomy & safety.All large scale socialist enterprises bring oppression, incl cruelty to objectors.US Govt intervention was needed during the Depression as was temp UK rationing during/post WW2.
Joan Moira Peters, Whangarei UK Citizen , temp o/seas in New Zealand
It wasn't capitalism that established F&F as GSEs - it was politicians, and it was their handmaidens who kept interest rates too low, and encouraged reckless expansion of credit.
"[bailout] was unqualified good news for the US economy." said AK on Monday. Hard to square with above death of markets
Cyril, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia