Anatole Kaletsky
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Was the relative calm in the financial markets yesterday merely the eye of the hurricane? Or did it suggest that the worst is over and a period of convalescence now lies ahead? The answer will depend on what happens in Washington this week.
If Congress fails to pass some kind of support package, then banks around the world will continue to fall like dominoes and the world economy will almost certainly suffer a deep depression. But even if American politicians come to their senses and agree a package, policymakers around the world will have to think more carefully and constructively about their attitudes to bank support. After the bodyblow to confidence this week, guaranteeing bank deposits may no longer be sufficient. If wholesale bank nationalisation is to be avoided, especially in America and Britain, politicians will have to stop boasting about punishing greedy bankers and start supporting shareholders, as well as depositors, in big banks.
Although no politician will admit to sympathising with bankers, the fiasco in Washington seems finally to have drawn attention to some of the policy changes urgently needed if private banks owned by stockmarket investors are not to become extinct.
David Cameron, led the way in Britain yesterday with an impressive four-point programme of government guarantees, regulatory reforms and critically important accounting changes. It is hard to see why Gordon Brown should not embrace all these points. Similar policy changes are starting in other countries - most importantly in the US itself.
To understand why the emphasis of policy must switch from punishing bank shareholders to giving them some comfort, we have only to ask why more banks keep failing despite the huge amount of public money being poured into bank “rescues”and “bailouts”. The answer is simple: the government rescues that have cost so much money have not been rescues at all. They have been more like demolitions or robberies. Governments have guaranteed bank deposits, but they have wiped out the value of bank shares. This expropriation of bank shareholders has not only put the “rescued” institutions out of business. It has sabotaged the viability of other banks, as investors dump their shares before they are “rescued” like Bradford & Bingley or AIG.
That was the story until Monday. But then something seemed to change, particularly in Washington. After the congressional vote, several congressional rebels demanded two crucial changes to the bank bailout package that could transform the survival prospects of many US banks, but that the Bush Administration had consistently rejected, largely for ideological reasons. Significantly, the Congressmen's demands were very similar to the proposals Mr Cameron outlined yesterday.
The first demand was simply to extend US government guarantees to all bank deposits, instead of limiting them to $100,000. The second demand was to abandon, or at least to suspend, the new system of supposedly market-based accounting, which has been largely responsible for the overnight collapse of banks that were deemed to be solvent less than a month ago. This technical-sounding reform could immediately stabilise the profits of most British and American banks.
Until about five years ago banks all over the world worked out the profits they made from lending money to homeowners, businesses and consumers by estimating the likelihood that borrowers would continue to pay interest and ultimately repay these loans. Regulators then determined the bank's solvency on the basis of such long-term assessments.
In recent years, however, accountants and regulators have replaced such probabilistic judgments of economic fundamentals with a principle called “mark to market”. Under this new approach, promoted passionately by conservative financiers and academics who believe that “the market is always right”, banks base their profits not on how much income they expect to receive in the future but on how much money they could raise immediately if they sold all their loans and mortgages in the market at the best price they could fetch.
This reform didn't make much difference when markets were working smoothly and financial prices reflected long-term asset values. But in the wildly volatile and panicky conditions of the past 12 months, mark-to-market accounting has contributed hugely to the crisis.
On Monday several Republican Congressmen who had broken ranks with the Bush Administration were focused mainly on the mark-to-market issue rather than on generalised populist disquiet. One reason for the large vote against the package was a persuasive seminar on Capitol Hill just before the voting. It was held by William Isaac, a prominent financial consultant who formerly ran the federal government's deposit-guarantee fund, and who has long argued that suspension of mark-to-market accounting could save many banks from failure and billions of dollars in taxpayer funds.
It seems likely, therefore, that the Bush Administration will swallow its ideological pride and buy Republican support for the Paulson package by inserting two conditions that will be very beneficial to bank shareholders: suspension of mark-to-market and lifting the ceiling on deposit guarantees. As a quid pro quo, Democrats may well demand stronger government protection against foreclosure and progress towards bankruptcy reform. But these measures would also help bank shareholders, by reducing the number of forced property sales.
A new version of the Paulson package could be much more generous to banks and their shareholders than the one voted down on Monday. If this is widely recognised it will, of course, be controversial. “Punish greedy bankers” is the one slogan on which everybody in Washington - and Westminster - can agree.
But this vindictiveness obscures some crucial facts. The first is that the people punished in recent bank “rescues” have not been the managers and traders who made off with billions. The punishment has fallen mostly on small shareholders and long-term institutional investors. The second is that even if bank shareholders deserve punishment they need not be put to death. For shareholders to lose 50 or 60 per cent in a bank rescue is pretty unpleasant; they do not need to be wiped out. Finally, the most important point anti-bank jihadists ignore: just as there should be no reward without risk in a market economy, there can be no risk without reward. If government bank rescues destroy all hope of reward for investors, there will be no banks.

Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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it actually is a rescue plan, bankers and financial experts do nothing to aid society except play a game, often with other peoples money and work, and profit of a complex mathematical scam.
alexb, NYC, usa
Bankers have been greedy, but the Govt needs to be weary they dont wear the same tag. Firstly, their procrastinating has saved them a few billion. Secondly, 99% of these toxic debts will be repaid long-term. Is that smart investing or being greedy. Or both!
Mark Boughtwood, Auckland, New Zealand
Do not scrap fair value accounting. The alternatives are far worse, devising even more creative models to value the creative instruments that caused the crunch.
For example, the market is including recession risk increasing potential defaults (eg higher unemployment), models may ignore this.
Duncan, Birmingham, UK
No-one's picked up Anatole's point about the difference between officers and shareholders. The officers have made off with megabonuses leaving shareholders to pick up the tab. Ditto Equitable Life. So shareholders carry the can for not supervising the officers, but how can they do that? Anatole?
Nigel, London, UK
The average American is up to his/her eyeballs in debt. No matter how much you give the banks the people will still be in trouble. We have not yet learned to say no when offered money now and pay it back later. People need to learn to live within their means, credit is a tool not a way of life.
Jim, Boston,
US banks borrow from Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed lends them money created from nothing. When banks repay the Fed the money turns to nothing again. Make the Fed forgive $700 bilion of bank debts. Money supply would then stay the same, no one loses anything, and banks then have money to loan out.
Jon Maynard, Lansing MI, USA
Conclusion "there will be no banks" is incorrect. Fortis was taken over with government 50%. Benelux governments will sell their shares as soon as the situation is stable again. There will continue to be banks but with other shareholders. And some shareholders have lost money.
JPHR, Lelystad, Netherlands
People also seem to forget that the vast majority of bank employees are not billionaires, they are ordinary people doing often very dull admin & operational jobs. The only reason wages in banking are slightly higher is because the jobs are so boring.
freya, london,
SOLUTION........Government takes over the Sub-Prime
mortgages and allows people a 3year interest holiday on
their repayments. Where houses have to be repossessed
due to job losses, they should be rented out until it is prudent
to sell them, thus bringing in an income, gradually 700 Bn
repaid.
Roger, Weymouth, UK
The Israelites had to wonder in the wilderness for 40 years.
This generation of politicians, bankers, accountants and other business leaders will never be able to solve this.
Why ? The problem is due to excess debt and their best solution to date is more debt.
Get banks back to saving.
Derek, Cape Town , SA
I have no sympathy whatsoever for bank shareholders. It is their apathy which is one of the main causes of the crisis. If they had taken an active interest in what the boards of directors were up to and how they were rewarding themselves then we may not be in this situation.
Clive, Pocklington, England
Lots of "Its all the bankers fault, let them burn" arguments as seems the rage. Absolve the homeowners responsibility, why not?! - why did so many borrow 100% mortgages, thinking the housing market was a one way bet, and they'd all be rich. Bankers were not the only greedy ones. Look in the mirror
James, London,
The banks created the problem.
If I am financially irresponsible, who bails me out?
No one' I go belly-up!
Why should I give up my hard earned me to bail out a bunch of irresponsible goons who financially benefitted from the mess they created?
They should suffer the consequenses!
Robert Postuma, Montreal, Canada
And just to get the 700 billion figure in perspective .....
"It's not based on any particular data point," a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. "We just wanted to choose a really large number."
Richard Crow , Warsaw, Poland
The problem was that banks stopped lending to each other. So there must be banks out there now sitting on piles of loot, err, money, doing nothing. Why don't gov'ts act as clearing houses with guar'tees for lending these funds.
Ray Powell, Victoria, BC, Canada
"American politicians" are theoretically representing the will of their constituents - not making policy decisions in a vacuum. We've seen enough uninformed meddling and corrupt coercion. This problem can be solved without added taxpayer debt burden. AK has been consistently wrong, and is here.
Carl, Indy,
Anatole was about the last to recognise there even was a problem and ever since has been a foot-dragging apologist supporting the banking industry!
Objectivity has never been his forte; why is he still employed? "Journalists" such as he - who constantly talked up the market are part of the problem!
Jon Quirk, Johannesburg, South Africa
Two things:
- first, your article seems to defend the indefensable: that all UK banks can or even should be saved. NO, THEY DON'T. Be realistic for a change! Some banks are simply beyond rescue.
- second, don't you dare knocking punishing these greedy pigs. They have it coming!
rice2dumb, Leuven, Belgium
Another reason that the banks are suffering such demands for "punishment" is the everyday banking experience of the man on the street, who is typically as far from the City or Wall St as you can imagine - a so-called "service" industry that cares little for its' customers & charges indescriminately
Robin McGowan, Abu Dhabi, UAE
It seems that "Mark to Market" valuations of banks runs against the basic accounting principle of treating a business as a going concern. "Mark to Market" looks more like a break up valuation of a business; no wonder confidence is so low.
Roland Platt, BRENTWOOD, UK
Standing back is not punishing. The banks don't have an inherent claim to $5,000 from each tax payer any more than I have a claim on $5,000 from the guy next to me on the bus. Letting investors support themselves is the fairest thing to do.
Joseph, New York City, USA
You have fudged the vital distinction between shareholders, who own (but do not control) banks, and the executives who run them in practice (mostly in their own interests). The system of accountability has broken down, so executives are not answerable and profit even if their bank crashes.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Everything I read about this situation indicates that it is so complicated that few, if any, properly understand how to move forward. Also, this is compounded by the likelihood that the whole truth has yet to be revealed. Meanwhile rumour and speculation threaten to irreparably damage the world economy to the detriment and expense of all. Why can the major Governments of the world not suspend trading in Financial shares and by so doing give themselves time to find the truth and a viable solution? The constant application of poorly considered sticking plasters just makes things much worse
Bob Cook, Helston,
But estimating net present value of assets based on hypothetical future earnings depends on risk, so you're back to the ratings agencies. Cheaper to start new banks! A bank with $700bn in net assets would be worth about 5 times that amout right now.
Mark D B, London, UK
Are you not going to acknowledge the stupidity of the statement, "just as there should be no reward without risk in a market economy, there can be no risk without reward" as I pointed out in a previous post? To guarantee some reward is to remove all risk. NO reward IS the risk in any investment.
Alex Ritchie, Salisbury, UK
Whatever needs to be done, initially lenders wanted to lend huge sums they did not have to people that could not pay back. They then sold these bad debts as valuable, to others of their ilk, so that large turnover bonuses were enjoyed. That is fraud and they should be charged.
Findlay, Lanark,
How many new homes would have been built in the U.K. but for the bank lending? The Treasury profited from this boom before bust.
How many of those who say "let the banks fail" do not have an interest in their success through their pension funds? Failing banks would put millions on the dole.
laurie, tunbridge wells,
Some may see this as punishing bankers, but anyone who believes that moral hazard is a price too far for taxpayers to pay will think otherwise. You blow hot and cold on risk: who do you expect to take the risk of lending depositor's money to people who will never be able to meet full repayment?
clive, enfield,
If a person is dying from gangrene in one leg, you don't save their life by liberally coating the affected area with salve; you cut the leg off. Let the ailing banks fail and clear the system of the worthless paper they are holding. Only then will measures for restoring confidence possess meaning.
Richard Crow, Warsaw, Poland
Shareholders appoint the board of directors. The board appoints the CEO, etc, etc. If the proper corporate governance and oversight is not demanded from the Shareholders, I find it hard to fathom why they shouldnt be held accountable when the bank gets into strife? Be it bank bashing or not.
Jason, Matraville, Australia
You're absolutely right about backing the shareholders, whether they are individual investors or governments, but absolutely wrong about mark to market.
Changing the accounting rules caused the last US crisis, that of S&Ls, in the late 80s. Read Floyd Norris in the NY Times if you don't believe me!
Paul W. Meek, Burke, USA
18 years ago I owned shares in British & Commonwealth, they went bust, I Iearned a few things.
roger sykes, christchurch,
given that banks always loan more money than they hold,it would be impossible to save them all if the assets that secure the loans lose there value. it follows that somebody must carry the loss, and that somebody is always" the People" who else? but the banks must also be seen to share the pain.
Eddy, Bury St.Edmunds,
Bailouts should only be made as long as serious changes are implemented to ensure this doesnt happen again.
How about stopping fractional reserve lending? I dont see how lending money you dont have creates a stable system, although im by no means an expert on this subject! Just a suggestion!
Martin, York, U.K.
After all these years of being told the 'market' should be allowed to prevail, now it seems it's a different story. Let it prevail! I heard that Paulson got $500 million in his last year at Goldmine Sachs before becomg a game-keeper. Can this be true? How about a windfall tax on these bankers?
john problem, Hackney Wick, UK
All the sympathy seems to be given to the Banks & Shareholders.
I pity those who make payments every month on property over valued by so called professionals, who should have known better than to allow more than 90% and 3.5 times Annual Income.
Why not subsidise them?
Result no default. No problem.
M Sheridan, Oldham, UK
The point, dear Anatole, is that those who caused all this and made off with huge bonuses are unlikely to face any penalty at all. This is wrong, and they should be punished.
Roger Pearse, Ipswich,
The mark-to-market versus probabilistic actuarial accounting point is moot. Both are fallible; the former since liquidity is never guaranteed, as the banks (and homeowners) are now discovering. The latter since econometric forecasting is as much art as science.
SSG, London,
We all, including your commentators buy into "we've got to help the poor banks "The cause is GREED and PANIC. The majority will be better off without them. Banks have money, we trust them with ours, lets see them return our trust and lend to each other.The risk is small get on with it !!!
Brian, Norwich,
The workers will still work, the farmers will still farm, etc. The crisis is for those who have property assets who will see their net worth greatly diminish. What does the bank do for me? It receives my paycheck and gives me access at various convenient places. None of that will change.
Neil, Norwich, UK
The banking sector has become far to big, causing it to spend more time trading with itself and creating ficticious business rather than actually serving the real economy.
One way or another, it needs to shrink to a natural size. The "plan" just puts this off for another day.
Nick, France,
Pretty much as George Magnus has been saying all along. He seems to have been the only one with a clear head in all of this.
Iain Birrell, NYC, USA
So your proposed solution to real problems are fictional accounts? That's what got us into this mess! The problem with the bail-out is it doesn't address the real problem, defaulting debtors, only the effect on banks. Help the debtors directly (part-ownership?) and the rest will sort itself out
Elizabeth, Slough,
The Paulson package would not have woked, even if congress passed the 700 billion plan.
I am not sure President Bush belived in Paulson to begin with. Although did support the republican party out of tokenism.
Let the market decide. If banks are in real need, they will survive, or maybe they die.
kevin, redlands, United States
Throughout history, what has happened when the ruling class goes too far? The American people are quickly running out of things to lose. I suspect the Western word is at a watershed of ideology and values. And I wonder if that is why so many are now willing to let the system fail. Time will tell.
Clinton, Edmonton, Canada
Kaletsky is doing the proverbial facing the wind with a full bladder. The mood of the public is against his arguments. It is hard to defend the greed of people paying themselves in excess of twenty million a year and then some in a bonus. K. has got it wrong all along and still doesn't understand.
John Walter, bonn, germany
I agree. Punishment of the 'wrongdoers' is irrelevant. Too few people understand that the very basis of the capitalist financial system is now threatened. If the world's banking system is not supported, all our savings will be in the hands of governments. And Karl Marx wins. Is that what we want?
Bernie, Essex, , UK
Mr. Kaletsky, how can you defend this bailout of the dishonest banking billionaires? The top ten CEOs paid themselves over 1 Billion Dollars over the last two years. Paulson is just trying to bail out his chums. The passing of the bailout will mean the death of the free market and also of democracy.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
Mr Kaletsky, most of what you say is true, but the very fact that the managers and traders CAN make off with billions, leaving either the shareholders and depositors to suffer, or the taxpayer to replace those billions, makes it imperative we don't just save the system without correcting that fault.
D. Milligan, Bristol, UK
You are probably correct that suspending mark-to-market accounting would alleviate the immediate pressure on banks but it does not solve the problem longer term. The prospect of losses on mortgage portfolios remains and the extent of such losses are unclear. Still hard to attract private capital.
GH, NY, USA
Let the banksters fail!
Instead of giving 'm a hand-out for the risks they knowingly took, how about giving us regular folks a hand up to pay our mortgages and rents?
Most of us did not gamble too much with our futures, paid our taxes and would be livid if our taxes were given the looser fat-cats
Some, Manchester, UK
Going back to accounting based on the likelihood of debtors paying back what they owed is not a solution. Who decides this likelihood? How is it calculated? And if you can calculate it, then why did banks still lend money to bad debtors? Banks need to pay the consequences of their actions.
Bilal Patel, London, UK,
Banks will continue to reposess the houses of defaulters , frankly that is the question . These banks are ruthless, a little taste of their own medicine and they will be taught a certain human ethic ,, monetary forgiveness ! reposes the bank mangers house thats the opionion of the people with debts
peter Kavanagh, London,
I'm glad that the 'rebels' took to heart Reagan's quip that "one of the most frightening statements in the world is 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help you'" as did Bush II and Paulson.
Second thoughts are invariably the best&to include mark to market in the final draft would be excellent
Dr Andris Lielmanis, Brampton, Canada
its true that leaving shareholders with nothing when doing a bailout may disincentivise shareholders from investing in troubled firms. however investors may invest in more stable firms instead. shareholders are taking risk when they invest, if they oversee a failing company then they should lose all
andrew, london, UK