Anatole Kaletsky
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
There is more than one way to skin a cat. There might have been simpler and cheaper ways of preventing the collapse of Britain's financial system than that chosen yesterday by Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling. I have argued, for example, that the main requirements to stabilise the banking system would be to follow the Irish Republic and Denmark in offering unlimited deposit guarantees and to treat shareholders more generously when new capital has to be raised. But the announcements should achieve the same objectives - and could prove more effective, albeit at a higher cost.
So well designed was Mr Darling's package that Italy, Spain, Sweden and Denmark are expected to announce similar measures. Whether the plan can avert a serious recession is doubtful, especially with the Bank of England offering only tepid support with a half-point interest-rate cut, but at least Mr Darling has put in place the preconditions for some kind of stabilisation.
A broader question that my welcome for the plan is bound to raise is why anyone should take a British package seriously, given the failure of much bigger measures taken by the US Government? Aren't governments impotent against global markets? Shouldn't we just accept the inevitable hardships that follow the bursting of a credit and housing bubble, allowing market forces to clear up this mess in their own time?
This fatalistic argument, echoing the attitudes of 1930s America and 1990s Japan, is profoundly wrong. Banking crises have never been resolved purely by market forces.
Once a financial panic starts, government intervention is always required. Financial markets do not deal in physical commodities but in paper contracts that represent promises of future payments. Once faith in those promises is broken, only governments, with the right to print money and levy taxes, can offer truly credible financial guarantees.
That is why, amid all the lurches in sentiment I have suffered along with everyone else in this crisis, my analysis has focused on one point: sooner or later governments would have to take serious action to stabilise financial markets and the key question was when, and whether the government-led “Plan B” would be forceful and clever enough.
What has made this crisis so much worse than expected has not been the scale of the underlying problems but the inadequacy of the official response, led by the most incompetent US Administration since 1932. This brings us back to the Darling plan - and the possibility that it might catalyse some new thinking, not only in Britain but also around the world.
Two key elements in the package should help to stabilise conditions in British banking, and could end the chaos around the world.
The bigger and more surprising breakthrough was the £200 billion government lending facility that will ensure that British banks which agree to strengthen their capital positions to the level required by the Government will always be able to meet the repayment demands of depositors and creditors, no matter how suddenly they may wish to withdraw funds. This guarantee is four times bigger relative to the size of the economy than Henry Paulson's $700 billion US bailout - and the Treasury has agreed to increase it without limit if required.
This enormous commitment of public money, which will not require any of the collateral normally demanded by the Bank of England for emergency loans, has attracted fewer headlines than the smaller £50 billion fund to buy bank shares.
But it is the new credit line that deals with the genuine emergency in the banking system - the “silent bank run” in which nervous companies and financial institutions are withdrawing tens of billions of deposits from the wholesale money markets daily, thus jeopardising even the “soundest” banks.
The Government is effectively taking on to itself the risk of a bank run. To all intents and purposes, this is the temporary unlimited guarantee of all bank deposits that many commentators have identified as a precondition for stability. So why did Mr Darling provide it in such a roundabout manner, instead of simply stating, like the Irish and Danish governments, that the Treasury would back all deposits for 12 months? The answer is probably a market-fundamentalist belief in the Treasury that guaranteeing bank deposits is wicked and encourages irresponsible lending - a curious phobia when additional lending is exactly what the Government is trying to achieve. But the key point is that deposits in the big British banks in Mr Darling's recapitalisation programme are now 100 per cent guaranteed. Once this is recognised, conditions in the British money markets should return to normal, banks should resume lending to one another and the £200 billion credit line will probably never be drawn.
But how can we be sure that all British banks can strengthen their capital positions to be eligible for the guarantee? This brings us to the second innovative element in the package - the offer to buy up to £50 billion worth of bank shares. There is nothing new about buying bank shares or options with public money. That was what Mr Paulson did when he effectively expropriated Fannie Mae and AIG shareholders, with catastrophic results.
The key breakthrough lies in the relatively generous treatment of shareholders under the Darling plan.
While Mr Paulson seemed to take personal delight in wiping out the shareholders of any institution that dared to ask for his support, the British Treasury has realised that these scorched-earth tactics were disastrous. For shareholders in British banks, an offer of government help should not be the kiss of death that it has become in the US. British banks will offer their shareholders the right to participate in raising capital on the same terms as the Government. As a result, private investors may buy British bank shares and keep them as long-term holdings, instead of dumping them in terror, as they have since the Fannie Mae debacle, every time there is a rumour of government “support”.
The upshot of these two key innovations - the effectively unlimited guarantee for bank deposits and the improved treatment of shareholders - is that the British banking system now has a decent chance of stabilising.
Restoring more normal banking conditions will not save the economy from recession; but paralysis of the banking system would have turned an unavoidable recession into a once-in-a-lifetime depression. Now just a common-or-garden recession is much more likely. For that small mercy, we should thank Mr Darling and Mr Brown.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Q: When is a rescue package not a rescue package?
A: When it means higher taxes, more borrowing, more national debt, higher inflation, increased government spending, larger public sector, more regulation, and increased political influence over interest rates and lending.
We need to be rescued from this rescue package
sebastian handley, london, uk
Darren in Shefield: Foreclosure in the US works the same as it does there; the borrower is slave to the lender.
The lender can pursue the balance of a mortgage after a foreclosure. This is done using the borrowers Gov't Tracking Number, euphamistically called a "Social Security Number."
Charles S., Fort Worth, TX, USA
This time Anatole could be right.
The world is not going under; just a tiny little problem will stay with us: my grandma experienced during the massive inflation in the 20s in Germany: Even with big packets of money in your hand - you never had enough to pay the bills.
Peter, Berlin, Germany
Stop predicting Anatole !!!!!
IAN PAYNE, Walsall,
Soon there will be one pensioner to every two workers. The free market is trying to respond to this by vapourising baby-boomers' financial assets, whilst leaving real assets intact. Government intervention to stop the process may cause a destruction of real wealth.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Sophie Smith.When exactly did the Tories 'leave the economy' in a good state?
1929?,1964?,1974?,1997?
John, Sheffield,
Kaletsky has been consistently wrong about how this crisis is going to work out.
Let us hope that this time he is correct. Personally, I am assuming the he will be incorrect once more
Alfred, Portsmouth, UK
Taking too long to intervene when signs of financial crises are clear will cost more than what may be expected, next time intervene swiftly
misheck, Johanesburg, South Africa
Concern: Candidates (both Rep/Dem) are asking voters who have lost their livelihoods/homes/savings to guarantee them 4 years of employment!! Where is the average American's guarantee of the same? Perhaps a polling booth should be stationed in front of the bread line come November 4?
Gerree P. Pecht, Ewing, NJ, U.S.A.
Can someone explain why bankers and traders should expect bonuses on top of their already bloated salaries for doing their job. It is precisely the culture of incentives that has got us where we are. A small increase over and above the annual salary is enough for good performance, as everywhere else
peter fieldman, paris, france
What is so innovative about turning on the printing presses Mr Kaletsky?
Mario , London,
Mr. Kaletsky:
You are still too optimistic by a mile.
I do not agree with much that you write.
Over the last 12 months we Bears have been consistently right,
And you Sir, have been consistently wrong,
If I may respectfully mention - dont want to sound too strong.
Cheers.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
The difference between the two countries is the Americans can walk away from their homes and their debt with no further action taken by the lender. In this country, the bank reposses the house and sells it then chases the person for the remainder of the debt.
Darren, Sheffield,
I didn't notice many complaints regarding house price rises and increased access to wealth under Labour a few years ago. Then the middle class was queuing up to buy the latest Audi. Does Sophie Smith or James M really want to have a Conservative government? Think 15% rates and post 80s bust!
Carl, Bristol, UK
Chris, Taiwan, in plain language, just so people don't mistake - the banks are bust.
M.O., London, United Kingdom
And who is going to bail out this now debt laden government? It certainly will not be the tax payer since Gordon Brown has already been borrowing more than he collects from already high wealth destroying taxation. Zimbawe hyperinflation and £0,000,000 printed bank notes, here we come.
George, London,
UK/EU has taken a clear lead over US here - has the US become a dysfunctional state?
BP, London, UK
Anna Murray, London
Please do tell. At what point ever in this countries entire history has any of the privately owned banks been under government control?
Tim Knight, Birmingham, England
The UK has bought time to reestablish a real and fairer productive economy. The ball now passes to the US who will scramble to hide personal assets before the ship finally sinks ... RIP.
Chris, London,
The crux of the current situation is how to preserve insolvent institutions while retaining any belief in the concept that repaying debt will is an obligation. Credit and investment will both dry up until this principle is reestablished. Free lunch/welfare culture is no replacement for common sense
Stephen Hargreaves, Hobart, Australia
and as the world turns on its head, I'm glad to be an Aussie at present: we should ride this out in the main because our banking system is much more regulated than most...phew! ....if only we had water....
Jo, Bendigo, Australia
The failed experiment of privatised banks - they should be put solely back under Government control where they started
Anna Murray, London, UK
Surely these promises are secured against Bank assets such as mortgage debtors or their derivatives?
Should the value of these secured assets decrease as a result of house price deflation or of the inability to quantify the amount of risk in derivatives, the promises themselves become diluted.
Alan Perry, London, UK
But this is different. This is a crisis of insolvency stemming from years and years of borrowing, not one merely of illiquidity. Even if "more normal banking conditions" are restored the western world faces a very pernicious and long-term drop in living standards. Call it a Slow Depression.
Chris. Fulker, Jiji Township, Taiwan, R.O.C.
Spot on James M. Cheltenham. But then look who has been in charge for the past eleven years. Labour has never left the economy in a good state, and it never will. Roll on the election!
sophie smith, london, uk
Paulson did not "wipe out" shareholders in Freddie, Fannie or AIG. Those institutions were insolvent, and would have collapsed under their own weight but for government intervention. Shareholders would have been wiped out either way.
JorgeGL, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Anatole, you're focusing purely on the outcome that offers the greatest chance of stability. I can understand that, but what about justice? Do we just accept the theft that's occurred from the creation of counterfeit wealth, and chalk the whole thing up to experience?
John Mack, Aberdeen, UK
of balance sheet public private thingys- we have to repay these aswell over the next few years-what about these?
david, London, UK
"For that small mercy, we should thank Mr Darling and Mr Brown."
Assuming it works, and good if it did, did Darling and Brown come up with the plan? I'm fairly sure Churchill never claimed to have cracked those ciphers himself.
Should we then thank the Treasury instead?
James M, York,
Brown and Darling lay the blame for the crises purely on american sub prime lending. What no one seems to take into account is that the UK has for the last 15 yrs been building it's own credit bubble. The risk is our own bubble is lagging 6 months behind the states. What happens when that bursts?
james m , cheltenham, uk