Anatole Kaletsky
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Nobody can dispute any longer, as I rashly did two months ago, that we are living through the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes. Historians can argue about the causes of the near-collapse of almost every bank in the world - a catastrophe never threatened even by the two world wars. Conventional wisdom will no doubt view it as the inevitable consequence of a decade of credit excesses and banking follies.
I will continue to argue, as I have since the chronic credit squeeze turned suddenly into meltdown in September, that it was an avoidable accident, caused mainly by the blunders of one individual: Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, when he hubristically bankrupted Lehman Brothers and expropriated the shareholders of Fannie Mae.
But there are far more urgent items on the political and economic agenda. The first is how to prevent the recession made inevitable by this meltdown becoming a Japanese-style “lost decade” of economic stagnation and falling prices. The second is how to fine-tune the financial rescue plans announced by all leading governments, to promote economic revival. The third is how to reform regulation and global economic governance to reflect the lessons of both the upswing and the slump.
The second and third issues are rather technical but, in a nutshell, I believe that Britain has missed a crucially important issue by failing to remove the lethal distortions in regulation and accounting that were have been largely responsible for the boom and bust. Gordon Brown has also been overly punitive to bank shareholders and his terms will have to be relaxed to avoid unnecessary damage to what is still the country's most important industry.
In America, by contrast, Mr Paulson has been far too generous. As a result, there must be a serious risk that his sweetheart deals with the banking industry will unravel if the Democrats win the White House and both Houses of Congress on November 4. One issue that will hang over financial markets is what happens to US financial and economic policy in the three-month hiatus between November 4 and the inauguration of the new president on January 20. But I want to focus on what must be done to prevent this recession turning into depression.
Moderating the recession will require drastic changes in monetary, fiscal, financial and international policy, preferably done in concert in the world's main economies.
Interest rates everywhere must be cut urgently. Central bank base rates must fall to the lowest levels in the postwar era to offset the much wider credit spreads that banks will demand for lending, even to their best customers. Governments must not be intimidated by shock-horror headlines that exaggerate the modest costs of bank rescue packages, which should mostly pay for themselves. Financial policy must ensure that government-led bailouts result in the increased lending promised to companies and households.
Last but not least, governments must deal with the enormous imbalances in the global economy that have been financed by the credit boom and are bound to reverse. Since the mid-1990s, most of the impetus for global growth has come from the consumer and housing booms in America, Britain and Southern and Central Europe, while the Asian economies and Germany, have relied to a disproportionate extent on export-led growth. This will inevitably change. As previously consumer-driven economies endure a period of belt-tightening, imports will weaken and exports will soar, as is happening in America.
To prevent a global depression resulting from belt-tightening in countries such as the US, Spain and Britain, it is imperative that China, Japan and Germany recognise that they can no longer rely on export-led growth and redirect their economic policies to stimulate domestic consumer spending, infrastructure investment and housing. If they refuse, they will face a protectionist backlash, certainly in the US.
How might these principles be translated into practice in the US and Britain? In America there will be little room for further rate cuts after the Federal Reserve Board reduces its policy rate to just 1 per cent, as it surely will this month. The top priority will be to ensure that lenders pass on the benefits of ultra-low rates to the rest of the economy. There will probably a big role for the US Government in direct lending to homeowners and businesses, and substantial revisions to the bailout deals struck by Mr Paulson this week with the private banks.
The biggest policy stimulus in the US is likely to come from tax cuts and public spending, whoever wins the election. The most effective tax cuts would be directed at low-income households and these are likely after a Democrat victory.
In Europe, and especially Britain, the scope for interest-rate cuts is huge. The European Central Bank is likely to move slowly, because of its federal structure, Germanic traditions and continuing upward wage pressures from powerful public sector unions. But in Britain, there is no such excuse. It is preposterous that Britain, the G7 economy most gravely threatened by the collapse of activity in housing and international finance, should have higher interest rates than the EU and the US.
The Monetary Policy Committee should aim for a base rate of 3 per cent by the end of the year and 2 per cent or below, roughly in line with the US, by next summer. To show that it means business, the MPC should cut by a full percentage point in November. The only alternative would be an explosion in the government deficit, to well over £100 billion. If that were to happen in the year ahead, it would certainly be less of a disaster than increasing taxes or slashing public spending in the recession. Amid a financial crisis of the kind the world is now facing, the litmus test of fiscal prudence is not the budget deficit this year or next, but the credibility of long-term plans to put government finances on a sustainable footing.
In short, Britain needs a steep rate reductions, combined with a fiscal policy that permits much bigger deficits in the short term, followed by big tax increases and spending reductions once the recession abates.
Is such a programme conceivable? Recall what the Major Government did in 1992. Within three months of Black Wednesday, interest rates were cut from 12 to 8 per cent. The government deficit was allowed to expand to almost 7 per cent of national income, but the 1993 Budget set a credible course for bringing finances back into surplus by 1997. The result was a rapid economic recovery, followed by 16 years of uninterrupted growth. In the months after Black Wednesday, only the wildest optimist imagined such a golden future to be possible. In 1992 I was that wildest optimist - and today I believe that, with the right policies, a similar miracle could be repeated in the decade ahead.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now an Associate Editor of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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It is a good time for G Brown to reinstate the 10% tax rate. This will increase the disposable income of the groups that will spend the majority of their income and stimulate economic activity.
NHOJ, London, UK
people need rate cuts fast to offset this slowdown it wont lead to a credit bubble because banks wont be allowed to lend as they have before ,much lower mortgage payments will give people more to spend in the broader economy
john, stirling,
Why can no one admit that we do not know where this thing is going. That maybe trying to "fix it" before we know the utimate resulting issue (inflation, stagflation, depression ...) might do more damage than good.
Ed, Auckland,
Convential wisdom is correct Mr Kaletsky and you are wrong. Your slash-rates-to-encourage-further-borrowing scenario only reflates the debt bubble to put off the day of reckoning.
Paul, Coventry,
The Olympics could be a great assistance. The government could bring forward the construction of the £12 billion site: utilise the unemployed constructions workers, stimulate demand for construction manufacturers and stimulate economic activity.
jimmy, Birmingham,
While broad support is necessary, at some point, every firm can not be bailed out. So your blame on Paulson for not bailing out Lehman Bros is misguided. If not Lehman, then another company would have gone bankrupt. Currently nationalization is the best strategy, but long term ideas are needed also
Chrisfs, Berkeley, USA
Don't hear it often enough, but time has to be called on the finance sector's execs taking millions out of the system at the expense of Joe Public, who instead of sharing in the economic growth he helped create was consoled with credit (until the prop flop, that is) rather than wage increases.
Douglas, Arlesheim, Switzerland
Why has no one highlighted the fact that Wall Street conned the worlds' banks into buying junk masquerading as AAA investments - con-artists!
A.Kaletsky is only trying to keep his investments and property values afloat he does'nt give a damn for Joe the plumber - come on Anatole admit it.
Stuart Crawford, Guadix, Spain
Depression is inevitable. History shows we get one every 75 years. So guess its our time. The real problem is Global Govt debt. The truth is Govt around the world can't repay their debts. Even if the Chinese have the capacity to absorb all Govt global debt do they have the political will to do so
Rupert, London, UK
As usual another idea to fix a problem never encountered before and for which any solution will be just guesswork. Allowing people to borrow more or cheaply will only add to pile of debt swilling around in the system and which was put there by in our case this Government.
george, Exeter, UK
Excellent Mr Kaletsky.
Just the right formula.
Let's hope the MPC is listening to you.
John Collins, Bromley, Kent
King and is his BoE colleagues with one exception have totally misread the situation. They all should go. They are out of touch and out of date and should look at the Reserve Bank in Australia which cut by 1% this month and will cut by another 1.5% by Christmas.
Peter, Melbourne, Australia
At heart is the utterly mistaken concept that we all benefit from free trade. Quite the opposite to the reality. Western nation states are being trashed as capital and people are allowed to move in vast amounts across the globe. A global depression will, with luck, stop it. I look forward to this.
Richard, Birmingham,
Cut rates? So we spend not save? What do we spend it on? Imports? What happens to Stirling? Will Asia still lend to us after what has just happened to the last (similar) cunning plan!
R James, Bristol,
The British public didn't go into the recession of the early 90's carrying £1.4 trillion of personal debt. There is no appetite for more debt. The BoE can cut interest rates to zero for all I care. Like millions of others I'd just use the extra money to pay off my debts - not go on a consumer binge
Lance Grundy, Liverpool, Great Britain
The BOE and Treasury have the wrong peple in charge. King's Moral hazzard is totally the wrong approach and charging high rates is negative on recovery prospects.
We should have set up a sovereign wealth fund, allowed the public to invest and used that vehicle to invest capital in the banks.
Peter, , chelmsford, England
When your debts are in trillions, and assets in billions you need new rules, and experts. The whole planet could be in negative equity for all we know.
ged, manchester,
Brown will not reform his regulations because he will never admit to a mistake and is bashing banks and the Americans because he wants them to take the blame for the recession, falling house prices, unemplyement, etc.
R Mason, London, uk
Anatole you continue to underestimate the danger we are in. Stagnation is the least of our worries. If this almost insoluble economic problem isnt fixed the world we know will dissolve into a very dangerous place. Democracy is a feeble religion, that is fuelled by prosperity. New thinking is needed.
sel, manchester,
Given that excess borrowing driven by low interest rates was the cause of a bubble that has burst. It is odd that the cure for the disease is to encourage more borrowing.
Many people have debts to service that they now realise are not affordable and they aren't going to take on more debt.
marksany, Essex, UK
I agree with rick, melbourne completely.
Folks - including your good self Anatole - do not seem to understand the fundamentals of the 'correction' we are going through. We followed the US Pied Piper! Turned the whole world into a Giant Casino! Agree with you Paulson beyond a joke, though. Cheers.
William Kent, Brandon, Canada
Antole, very simplistic view. Its far too late to significantly alter this path. Your suggestion would create further upward inflationary pressures, whilst reducing fiscal potential against any country that didn't agree/reduce their resp. currency, leaving us worse off.
Harry, North, Italia
We are in a recession now!
Cutting interest rates won't work so well if a significant part of the population with savings to spend see their income cut and if banks are unlikely to lend, whatever rates are. And why would you want to borrow now anyway?
stephen goddard, london, uk
This is exactly what Vince Cable has suggested and again at the time widely ridiculed. Why aren't the Liberal Democrats getting more credit for their analysis during this period?
Niall Rowantree, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
What about all the people - particularly pensioners like me - who NEED interest from savings accounts to support themselves? If rates are to be very low some will go out, buy a new car, and then apply for state benefits instead. There has to be a middle way to move everyone on, not just some.
David, Driffield, England
The test of whether Gordon Brown has also been overly punitive to bank shareholders is whether any private organisations will offer a better deal.
If debt was the problem why encourage more debt not saving?
Forget carbon, think economy, fuel cost and resources.
AGW is already proven wrong.
David Cage, Highworth, UK
Cutting rates will reduce the burden of servicing existing debt but given how maxed out the consumer is and with property falling this is highly unlikely to encourage further borrowing and fuel a recovery. Again you are looking for the brighter side in all this and it just isnt there unfortunately.
GH, NY, USA
Meredith Whitney doubts that the banking package in the US will work. The money wont flow through and fundamental problems will remain. The lady has a nasty habit of being right.
I will listen to her opinion before anybody else.
Christopher H, Canberra, Australia
We need another concerted action from all Central Banks to cut rates globally.
As we enter recession, it becomes clear tha inflation will abate rapidly as well as oil prices, which should retrace towards the 50 USD levels.
Let's brace ourselves for some additional pain and defaults...
Martin, London, United Kingdom
The chance of what you suggest happening is frankly zero, until there is a new UK government. Everything being done by Brown is a futile attempt to shore up his own position. Wholesale reform of the IMF, an attempt to show some leadership, meanwhile the Lloyds TSB HBOS deal looks in serious jeopardy
Tom Howard, Bordeaux, France
It is impossible to cut taxes for low-income households in the US - they are already net recipients of money from the government.
At least if you give them even more money, they're sure to spend it immediately. Despite the $1 trillion a year spent on the poor in the US, they're still broke.
jt, NYC, USA
As Dave of Sofia says just reinflating for another high consumption bubble is not on. This financial crunch is a teaser for the crunches which will emerge later if we do not get the planet and our activities in better balance. Let's spend to get our economies low carbon and low resource intensive.
Mike Norton, Nagano , Japan
Key thing is to ensure there is no competitive devaluations or trade barriers or other forms of economic nationalism - that way depression lies.
Neil Murphy, Cromer,
The bubble was caused by the fact that with a fiat currency there is nothing to stop the govt from printing as much money as it wants. A custom made suit costs the same in gold as it did in 1914. The answer is to go back onto the gold standard.
Phil Hodgson, Nottingham,
The government could effectively cut Mortgage Interest Rates tomorrow by one fifth.
Re-introduce Tax Relief on Mortgage Interest with limits e.g. restricted to the basic rate and a maximum amount.
I note that Switzerland allows this.
Perhaps we can learn something from them?
M. Sheridan, Oldham, UK
The ponzi scheme you call international trade is unstainable. The real issue is the uncompetive nature of western workers not lower interest rates. It is clear that living standards will decline until an equalibrium is reached. Or the west becomes more efficient through investment not consumption.
Stephen Hargreaves, Hobart, Australia
I think the weakness here is in your final paragraph. What worked in 1993 worked because the crisis was - mostly - in the UK. You can fix one country when the rest of the World is mostly healthy. It is less clear what happens with a globally coupled economy of interdependent nations.
jon livesey, Sunnyvale, CA/USA
I disagree.
Now is the opportunity to re-write the economic rule book.
Priority should be given to protecting the environment, relieving global poverty and the development on non growth economic policies!
Dave, sofia, Bulgaria
You still dont get it do you Anatole -have you learned nothing?
The excess liquidity has to be drained from the system, the dead wood cut away, house prices to fall, and the strong will survive.
Desperately printing money to in a futile attempt to reinflate the bubble is really not the way to go.
rick, melbourne,
Yes once upon a time you consistently got it right, when exactly did you turn into the Alastair Campbell of Economics .
Doug, London,
The fundamental mistake has been the BOEs fixation on contolling inflation alone; a task proved impossible in a global economy. They must move quickly now to lower interest rates as the inflation figures are going to fall dramatically from here on in. Anatole's thinking is spot on.
john, milton keynes,
Dont hold your breath, Mervyn King and the MPC have shown themselves to be more interested in their reputations and showing tough love rather than serving the interest of the economy. I agree, rates should be cut drastically but I am not hopeful..
john, London, UK