Anatole Kaletsky
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Unemployment is soaring. Property and share prices are collapsing. Gordon Brown's borrowing plans are accused of driving Britain towards bankruptcy. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, says that it is impossible to predict when the recession will be over and is pilloried for “losing touch with reality”. What is to be done?
When a patient is seriously sick - as the British and world economies clearly are at present - it is wise to make a careful diagnosis before prescribing the cure. The first step in this, as the Bank of England prepares for its next interest-rate cut and Mr Brown flies off to Washington for the global economic summit this weekend, is to decide who is qualified to make the diagnosis and who isn't.
Should we disqualify all those who failed to foresee the gravity of this crisis - a group that includes Mr King, Mr Brown, Alistair Darling, Alan Greenspan and almost every leading economist and financier in the world with the partial exceptions of Warren Buffett and George Soros? Speaking as a junior member of this confederacy of dunces, my answer is, not surprisingly, an emphatic “no”.
The reason for continuing to take seriously the views of the many so-called experts wrong-footed by this crisis is, however, more complex, and more enlightening, than the self-justification offered yesterday by Mr King. The Governor excused the Bank's past misjudgments on the grounds that economic performance is inherently unpredictable and “the world changed completely” in mid-September after the Lehman Brothers collapse. This is perfectly true, but not very helpful. The question raised by Mr King's refrain that “the world changed in September” is why this happened and whether this sudden transformation was inevitable.
The answer, to return to my medical analogy, is that the world was suddenly hit by a second, more dangerous disease in mid-September that was quite distinct from the chronic, but manageable, illness from which it had been suffering for the previous year. Correctly diagnosing these two separate ailments is absolutely crucial because they require different, and to some extent contradictory, cures.
The slow-moving cancer that the world economy was suffering until August was caused by excessive borrowing, property speculation and reckless and dishonest banking practices. A still-deeper cause of this credit cancer was the global imbalance between exuberant consumption and house-price speculation in America, Britain, Spain, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, on one hand, and excessive saving and austerity, on the other, in China, Germany and Japan.
Dealing with this cancer required bankers to be disciplined, borrowing to be restrained and property prices to be gradually deflated to reasonable levels. Dealing with the deeper problem of global imbalances required consumers in the US and Britain to spend and borrow less, while the surplus countries invested and spent more. This cancer of globally unbalanced credit growth was not, however, immediately life-threatening to the world economy and the cures - tighter bank regulation and a gradual, orderly reduction in lending - could be administered relatively slowly over a long period. This is what the Bank of England and other central banks and governments around the world were trying, with moderate success, to do until early September.
The sudden collapse of the global banking system that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman - described by Mr King yesterday as probably the worst financial crisis in recorded history - was a separate affliction. Like a heart attack in a patient previously weakened by chemotherapy, it required a different clinical response.
Rather than a heart attack, the global banking collapse could perhaps be described as a bullet in the head, since its proximate cause was a conscious decision by the US Treasury to jeopardise the stability of the world economy in pursuit of an essentially political objective - to show that the Bush Administration was willing to act ruthlessly against at least one big Wall Street investment bank. Until that point, savers and investors around the world had assumed that financial institutions such as Lehman were “too big to fail” and would always be supported by their governments.
By shattering this belief Henry Paulson triggered a run on every important bank in the world and caused the sudden implosion of consumer and business confidence seen in the past two months.
Unfortunately, the cure for the post-Lehman collapse is totally different from the prescription for the credit and property boom. Instead of restraining lending, punishing banks and encouraging saving, policymakers have to do the opposite. They must support - and if necessary - subsidise banks, to create conditions for easier lending and borrowing terms and to do their utmost to encourage consumption.
The obvious ways to do this are to slash interest rates and taxes, especially taxes on consumption and on lower income households, who are most likely to spend rather than save any extra money that they are allowed by governments to keep.
To avoid a deep and prolonged depression, policymakers all over the world must be willing to cut interest rates to levels never before imagined - if necessary all the way to zero, as Mr King hinted yesterday - and to increase their budget deficits without any regard to the old rules of fiscal restraint. They must also be willing to let their exchange rates float without worrying about inflation - another controversial policy that Mr King rightly endorsed yesterday.
Luckily, the post-Lehman recession has made this possible by transforming the inflation outlook: oil and commodity prices have halved in just over two months.
If governments around the world are willing to pull out all the expansionary stops - and especially if they do this with some degree of co-ordination - then the risk of a prolonged global slump will be much smaller than generally believed. With interest rates near zero and big tax cuts made across the world, a robust recovery would probably begin by the middle of next year, starting in America and China, spreading to Britain and eventually reaching continental Europe in 2010.
But what of the pre-Lehman problems? Credit will have to be controlled in the long run through better regulation and tougher capital requirements; saving will have to be encouraged, especially in America and Britain, by higher interest rates; and consumption will have to be restrained with higher taxes. These higher taxes, in turn, will eventually narrow the government deficits that must be temporarily swollen to offset the post-Lehman slump. Any such long-term measures to restore global balance and encourage savings must, however, wait until the world economy has returned to robust growth.
There is no point in offering chemotherapy to a patient whose heart has stopped.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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amazing, it was totally unpredictable but now they know just what to do. slash interest rates, burn the banks: as a way to encourage saving and protect pensioners perhaps? while savers get 0% on their deposits, hmgovt gets a 12% coupon on its bailout, with, of course, totally unpredictable results..
james, thonon les bains, France
And so how will the UK govt finance it's debt if interest rates are low and the pound weak?
andrew, cirencester,
0%! Free money! Debt forgiveness! Jubilee! Seriously though, the UK is not the US - we can't get away with borrowing as much, or cutting rates as far. Looks like Gordy will be going the way of all the great Labour PMs with a sterling crisis and national bankruptcy...
Graeme B, Oxford, UK
This article is nonsense! The worst think to do now is to invest in anything as all assets are loosing value. Even at 3 or even 0%, my money is better in a safe bank, at least it is not loosing there. Politicians try to push us there for there own benefits (next elexction). This will outlast them.
Henry, Paris, France
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom/
An incredibly good read.....
maudgonne, lancaster, penna, usa
I'm not sure, but I'm guessing Mr. Kaletsky is a fan of hyperbole!
Matt, Chicago, IL, USA
Another left wing head in the sand response to a mess created by Brown and Co, who is now on an ego trip trying to convince the world he is the second coming.
D Case, Newqauy,
The "fear" of deflation, espoused by AK and others, is completely misplaced. History shows that the US has had extended periods of deflation during which it prospered. Even today, people are accustomed to many consumer goods prices falling, yet we still spend. Deflation is far better than inflation.
James Brooks, London, UK
To follow on the medical analogy, sometimes the best doctor loses a patient. I think that we're in this case now in the economy; wild rate cuts like this are like using a defibrilator on a brain dead patient - still no pulse and just flattening the battery.
So IMO the UK gets 90's Japan stagflation
Pete, Enfield, Mddx
What "economists" like Anatole still can't grasp is that sooner or later people don't want to borrow any more.
Not at 5% or 3%. Not even at 0%, as they don't feel thay can ever repay the principle, especially when their job security is looking dubious.
More debt really is not a cure.
mike, melbourne, australia
You forget Nouriel Roubini who largely predicted the whole damn shoe-box. You also omit to mention that if sterling collapses because Brown's borrowing is to excessive, gilts will need to have much higher yields next year and interest rates will need to go up.
tom legassick, dunedin,
Still looking on the bright side then! Perhaps you should check what ABX AAA's did today after Paulson pulled the TARP bid. Massive delevering of consumer and corps still to come. More capital will be needed. Rates to zero helps banks recap quicker with steep curves but little else. Mid 2009 er no..
GH, NY, USA
I agree with the previous posters. The root of the problem is too much debt and too few savings, and the current measures being taken will only make matters worse, and leave even more toxic debt to be liquidated. As for the long term - when did a Labour politician ever consider the long term?
Robert Firth, Singapore,
The parallels with Japan in the late 1990s are frightening. Low long-term rates and expansive fiscal policy did nothing for growth until the banks and corporates flushed out their debts. Other than a growth blip in 1996, Japan's economy stagnated for 12 years. Can it really be happening again?
mark mcfarland, Hong Kong,
The Bank should collapse rates to 0%. Those with mortgages and loans now take priority over savers. The economy is in a mess. It needs a massive boost to consumer confidence. Darling had better be willing to cut VAT to 5% and increase winter fuel payments to £1000 for poor pensioner households.
Chrys, Slough, uk
Dont drop interest rates. The average person was easily able to pay their mortgage. It was when first time buyers had to find 25 % deposits it went belly up.
Keep property prices to 2% and start lending again. Is it that hard??
rich, hereford,
This article suggests that the people who created this mess are innocent victims of something they could not have predicted. And the claim is that they know how to fix the system. I have no doubt they know the jargon of banking. Yet if they are victims how do they know how to fix this?
Richard Stone, San Mateo, CA, USA
Two separate illnesses needing contradictory solutions. Reminds me of the 13 year old girl's medical condition. Her cancer caused the heart problem that needed a transplant to fix.
Either way she's dead. She chose to die with dignity.
The world economy. Either way it's dead. Without dignity
Dave Clemo, Kettering,
"Should we disqualify all those who failed to foresee the gravity of this crisis ?"
Absolutely! If a layman like me could see something like this coming years ago there's no reason why they shouldn't! Either they are deceitful or incompetent; both of which require disqualification.
Jonathan Speck, London, UK
This feels like a lazy, reductive article offering zero fresh insight and yet another rehash of objectively understood facts. These 'experts' are unable to offer insight because they're just stirring old facts rather than asking searching questions about when to invest. Look to Soros and Buffet.
Claire, herts,
The root cause was failure of Governemnts, including the Uk to control money supply. Asset values had to crash and mny experts predicted it. Governements did not listen Gordon Brown saw it as never ending-no more boom and bust he said many times.
He did not read it. I did in my own life.
Charles Daniels, NEWCastle, UK
Mr Paulson didn't fail Lehman, Lehman's ceo, Mr Fuld did. He could have sold Lehman at more than one points, but too proud to do so and too shortsighted to believe it can survive on its own. These executives should be sent to prison and their past bonuse should be confistigated.
Mark, Birmingham, UK
The Moral Hazard engendered in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac surely played a role in this current debacle. Similarly, unbridled government spending will thwart any attempt at remedial action as government borrowing for immediate consumption "crowds out" the private sector's need for investment capital
peter, miami, usa
The IMF said that UK housing was massively overpriced a couple of years ago. But Anatole and the rest were on the "property never goes down" wagon.
Now his answer is zero interest, no savings and massive public and private debts.
Oh God, where will it all end?
Bob Travels, Stevenage,
This is all very well, but when you interfere with the natural process of cyclical events, it always comes back to haunt you. The only solution is for the wider economy to be allowed to fail. Managing failure will only make things worse.
James, London,
The reason why most failed to predict present problems is that they did not understand the economy and why ever increasing debt was unsustainable.
This incomprehension is also the reason why the measures being taken will not work.
People like Roubini who did predict this are the ones to listen to.
David Martin, Bristol, UK
Wrong again Anatole. It is absurd to argue Paulson brought down this house of cards. This crisis cannot be solved by those who created it. Why? Because there is no reason to create wealth while governments give it away at 1%. This rate guarantees those who borrow at it will fail when it is raised.
Stephen Hargreaves, Hobart, Australia
Anatoles's solution to everything is "lower interest rates today". He's be saying this before, during and no doubt after this crisis has passed. When it comes time to raise rates "in the long run", as he promises, he'll find another excuse.
Too low rates caused this crisis and will only extend it.
James Brooks, London, UK