Anatole Kaletsky: Economic view
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It's an ill wind that blows no good. The US Treasury's decision to bankrupt Lehman Brothers and expropriate the shareholders in Fannie Mae caused the worst financial crisis in history, but it also secured the presidency for Barack Obama and is now transforming the economic and political landscape of Britain. The dithering incompetence of Henry Paulson has, by force of contrast, restored the credibility of Gordon Brown, both as Prime Minister and as an international leader. The UK economy, which had previously looked more vulnerable to the global recession than any other G7 country, is now likely to suffer less than the rest of Europe, as a result of unprecedented policy stimulus from the lowest interest rates in history, a super-competitive currency and a big reduction in tax. Meanwhile, the Conservative Opposition in Britain has been confused, discredited and splintered by the financial crisis as badly as John McCain's campaign.
The last observation links directly to the new economic story that suddenly broke out in Britain this weekend — the fear of a “run on the pound”. This sudden anxiety is a weirdly distorted echo of the great policy debate that raged in Britain throughout the postwar era until it was settled by the collapse of John Major's economic policy in 1992 and six years later by Gordon Brown's decision to keep Britain out of the euro. Since Black Wednesday, almost no British politician or economist has been silly enough to use the “weakness” or “strength” of sterling as a proxy for the state of the British economy, never mind to suggest that a fall in the exchange rate was a portent of economic doom.
In reverting to the economic fallacies of the Major period — which David Cameron was supposed to have put behind him when he left the side of Norman Lamont — the Tories have not only disqualified themselves from any serious role in dealing with the present financial crisis. They have also put themselves on the wrong side of history, alongside the most unexpected of allies - the few remaining euro-enthusiasts who believe that Britain should have joined the single currency and, failing that, should now behave like a shadow member, trying to stabilise its currency and not to deviate too much from eurozone monetary and fiscal policies.
This school of thought is articulated most persuasively by Willem Buiter, the former Monetary Policy Committee member who strongly advocated euro membership for Britain and is now a columnist on the Financial Times. According to Professor Buiter, last week's fall in sterling is symptomatic of a “triple crisis” — a simultaneous loss of confidence in the currency, in the banking system and in the Government's fiscal solvency - that could threaten Britain with an Icelandic-style collapse; this crisis is the price that Britain, like Iceland, is now paying for its stubborn refusal to join the eurozone. Professor Buiter's analysis is obviously more sophisticated than George Osborne's, but rests on the same fundamental arguments: first, that Britain, like Iceland, is a “small economy” that does not have the privilege of using a “reserve currency”, such as the dollar and the euro. Second, that Britain's banking sector, like Iceland's, is so big that government banking guarantees endanger the country's long-term fiscal solvency.
I see these arguments as fallacious - and, much more importantly, so do the Government and present members of the MPC. There are many objections to the Buiter argument, but the main one is simply that in the modern world of paper money and floating exchange rates, there is no such thing as a “reserve currency” - only different currencies that are traded and used as stores of value in the same way as other as assets. Investors cannot sell one currency, such as sterling, without buying another, be it the dollar, euro, yen or Swiss franc. The attractiveness of these alternative currencies depends on a host of factors, above all the return on assets in the country concerned, the inflation outlook, the degree of protection for property rights and the tax and legal systems. The level of government borrowing is only one consideration in investment judgments about a currency - and a very minor one, as evidenced by the strength of the yen despite the Japanese Government's enormous debts. The size of the banking system relative to national income is even less important, as demonstrated by the strength of the swiss franc.
The upshot is that, far from being feared as a “punishment” for Britain's monetary independence or long-term fiscal profligacy, the present fall in the pound should be seen as part of the solution to Britain's economic problems. As Mervyn King noted at his press conference last week, the UK needs to revive economic activity and avert deflation, but also to restructure its economy to reduce dependence on consumer spending and housing. It would also be helpful to reduce the country's reliance on foreign capital inflows. What all these requirements mean, as a matter of simple arithmetic, is that the structure of Britain's trade must shift substantially, to the point where exports either exceed imports or the remaining trade deficit is matched by inflows of capital from foreigners investing in UK property, businesses and other assets, in the expectation of better returns than they can earn elsewhere, either from higher return on capital or a future rise in sterling.
The textbook way to achieve such a shift in foreign trade and capital inflows is to combine bold cuts in interest rates, which lead to a sharp, though usually temporary, currency devaluation, with a squeeze on consumer demand. This was precisely the combination that worked so well for Britain in the 1990s after the Treasury's age-old fixation with trying to stabilise or manage sterling was abandoned once and for all.
Britain's aggressive use of monetary policy leads to two obvious conclusions — and one less clear. The first obvious conclusion is that the “collapse” of sterling will not discourage the MPC from continuing to cut interest rates. Most MPC members see sterling's decline as a welcome side-effect of lower rates and a helpful transmission mechanism from monetary easing to the real economy at a time when credit markets remain paralysed. Mr King has now publicly confirmed what I said here last month - that bank rate could easily fall to previously unthinkable levels as low as 1 per cent. The second obvious conclusion is that the present currency weakness, far from reopening a debate in Britain about joining the euro, should be seen as a vindication of the decision to keep an independent monetary policy and a floating currency.
The less obvious issue is whether the pound will continue to weaken against the euro, as the MPC moves farther ahead of the ECB in the cycle of monetary easing and the Government stimulates the economy by cutting taxes. With Euroland now in deep recession and the pound back to the low that triggered a strong economic rebound in 1995, market sentiment may well swing against the euro and in favour of sterling as investors conclude that eurozone policymakers are doing too little, too late, while Mr Brown and the MPC are laying the foundations for economic recovery in Britain.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Two totally polarised views from two so called experts. We are definitely in the mire and to structurally change the import export differential will take decades. Strange that our leaders thought this boom would run forever and didn't build any reserves during the good times.
robert, hartlepool, cleveland
Perhaps Mr Kaletsky can explain to his readers why with a super competitive pound the UK's, share of global trade declined by about 2 per cent between 2006/2007.
This UK exports decline happend at a booming global trade time when all other major countries' exports rose by more than 20 per cent.
Walter, Brentwood,
Global demand is depressed so whilst UK exports will be more competitive there simply won't be significant demand to outweigh the increased price of imports, that tied to the fact that as others have pointed out - we simply don't have a manufacturing base any more, balance of payments will worsen.
Ian Krender, Torquay, England
House prices collapsing, pensions losing their value, gold reserves sold off cheaply, the FTSE below the level it was 10 years ago, taxes increased stealthily, a huge deficit going into a recession - now that is a party that is not fit to run the British ecomomy!
MacFarlane, Barking,
Who enjoys the lowest interest rates in history? Nobody that I know of.
Who will lend the money that Brown wants to borrow? Nobody lends to a government which has a currency in freefall.
How will still greater borrowing and spending lead us out of the mire?
Victor , Swanley, England
Recent events have not transformed Brown into a great leader. He was backed into rescuing two bust banks whose failure posed systemic risk the UK. Their plight was not down to US sub-prime, but poor lending and over-extended balance sheets; all presided over by the weak regulatory model he set up.
Steve, London, UK
Kaletsky articles can be quite well thought out sometimes, when he remembers all the fundamentals. Here regrettably, he appears to have forgotten some of them. Debt is the main missing ingredient in his analysis. As for his forecast recovery, given enough time, almost any prediction will come true.
Steve Buckel, Braunau-am-Inn, Austria
One despairs. We now have one political party which deep down still appears to believe that centralised direction and management of the economy is to be encouraged for its own sake, while their opponents espouse the very policies whch turned the Wall Street Crash into the great 1930s depression.
Bob Gartside, Llanberis, Caernarfon, Gwynedd
It seems the ones losing out in the weakness of the pound are the ex-pats living in euroland. We rely on pensions paid in sterling and converted to euros and now find our income less than it was in November 2006.
David Moore, Alcalali, Spain
It all makes sense when you realize that (professional) politicians (who know nothing else) have no idea what is going on.
Peter, Berlin, Germany
Osborne was perfectly right to comment on sterlings fall and on unfunded Tax cuts being dangerous.
We need VAT cuts to 12.5% which I said last year and a reduction in givernment spending and five a day merchants.
Peter, Chelmsford, England
Your just another left winger spinning the facts.
D Case, Newqauy,
Anatole has lost the plot.
R A Connell, Guildford, UK
Gorden Brown, the man thats been able to hide the
real national debt of ..... wait for it
1.2 trillion. ( £ 1,200,000,000,000 )
Thats gives the Uk a public debt nearly a 100% of GDP.
Its a deep recession now or something worse later.
M. Walker., Nr. Bromsgrove., Worcs.
Mike is correct in saying that British manufacturers are not geared to the export market. My response is Maggie's TINA (There is no alternative). Export or die.
Duncan, Colombo,
We know that UK import cost are far in excess of the cost of exports. Accordingly then a sustained fall in the value of the pound is an economic disaster. Its about time the so called media experts 'told it like it really is'.
Graham Duncan, Austin (Tx), USA
We will see another short term Labour fix. Big tax cuts before Christmas, dash for the poll in Jan/Feb. Then worry about the economy when they have secured their jobs.
Tom Mein, Chania, Crete
So the fall in the pound will help our exporters.
To export what, exactly? What do we manufacture that the world is clamouring to purchase in large quantities?
Our manufacturing sector is shot to pieces, isn't it?
David Garfield, London, UK
Refund for UK savers as Iceland seeks IMF rescue
The article implies that this resolves the issue for all individual savers. This is simply not the case..
Many ordinary people advised in the main by financial advisors
invested their savings/pensions in KFSIOM & todate have lost
everything.
j baird, richmond, surrey
Please, a serious article deserves serious comments, not politically-motivated one-liners. Both Kaletsky and Buiter are highly respected ecomonic commentators. Don't look out of the window and say 'it can't be winter' just because the sun is shining. Try using your brain first and your mouth second.
Mike Donovan, London,
lovely article, and I agree that a falling pound is wonderful news for our exporters.
There is though one key flaw in the argument - we don't make anything any more in the UK.
We have to face up to reality. New Labour has bankrupt Britain. It is both a morally and financially bankrupt govt.
Robbie, Brighton, UK
Britain is a net importer, the weakening pound means we imports will be more expensive ie. inflation.
We do not have the manufacturing base to make any significant gains from it. Whats left of our 'national treasures' will get sold off at bargain basement prices overseas. RIP
chris, Dubai,
To take advantage of the proposed situation you have got to have something worth exporting - not financial instruments and sky high priced housing. Brown is leading us to the cliff spending money we don't have, while the rest of us are preparing for the downturn and tightening our belts.
TJP, Bedford, UK
Time will tell on this one. Anatole has it right politcally. Economically we have yet to see but London is a safe haven and for the rich Chinese, Indians, Oligarchs and Arabs alike, being President for life isn't always that great a job! A run on the pound is likely to be temporary. We'll see
Gavrilo Prinzip, Bromley, UK
Once again Mr Kaletsky thinks what he sees now is the future. Mr Browns popularity will only last as long as his largess. When all governments adopt the textbook solution what happens to the comparative advantage. It becomes a race to the bottom and the first one there is not the winner.
Stephen Hargreaves, Hobart, Australia
Everyone's very clever now, but to echo the Queen, when a banking disaster's that big why did no one in Britain see it coming?
Thomas Bell, London,
Blaming everything on Paulson's failure to bail out shareholders of irresponsible banking institutions is wrong. If the US government had effectively underwritten all the bad debts in the US economy, the US credit rating would have plunged & the helpful recovery in the dollar would not 've occurred.
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes, UK
Regrettably Mr. Kaletsky has missed the point. "Gormless" Brown (the seller of our gold reserves at the bottom; the man who has incresed taxes by 50%; the man who has locked 6 million English people into subsistence living as "captive electors" etc., etc.) is economically incompetant - and unlucky !
Fred Russell, Dubai, UAE
What is really required is; a vast reduction in the size of the State and it's non-job, overpaid, employees.; taxes and pointless regulation slashed; a currency that retains its value and a national focus upon creating wealth - not stealing it from wealth-creators.
Fred Russell, Dubai, U.A.E.
Devaluing your currency is a double-edged sword, particularly when Britain is no longer a major exporter of goods. The size of the Eurozone has a direct impact on the decisions people make as to the security of using it as a reserve currency, as is the conservative policy stance of the ECB.
Paul Galbally, Carlow, Ireland
Anatole is right, the 'pain' of low IRs & devalued sterling are the shot term horrible medicine we need to recover. The alternative would be like Russia who have hiked rates to 12% to support a collapsing rouble. That will lead to hyperinflation which WILL make their population long term poorer.
Bertha Vanation, Plymouth, Devon
Nadeem, especially, but others too. Can you say 'Competitive Devaluation' ? Try doing that with your hands tied by Frankfurt. Making exports to Europe cheap (70% of our markets, for better or worse), and their exports to us expensive, Mervyn and Gordon have played a blinder, IMHO.
Geoff Harrison, Beverley, UK
Beggar thy neighbor? A race to the bottom?
Peter Adam, Chevy Chase MD, USA
Kaletsky is about as accurate is Mr Magoo playing darts - thinking that the collapse in sterling will lead to an export led recovery looks back wistfully to a long gone UK economic era.
More relevant-why lend to G Brown who only wants to pay you 1% interest & you might not even get yr money back
mike, melbourne,
Unlike the UK, Japan's government debt is counter-balanced by massive private savings. Hence the long term stability and recent strengthening of the Yen. By contrast majority of UK private wealth is tied up in housing equity and that is being eroded at an unprecedented rate.
Neil Moulder, Amersham, England
Actually I agree with Nadeem, the UK economy is on the edge of a very very steep cliff. If Brown gets it wrong, and there is a 50-50 chance he will, then watch GBP go into complete freefall and the rest of the economy with it.
ipd, Tokyo, Japan
Always interesting to read these columns and then see how accurate the predictions are. This guy has a crystal ball with more cracks in it that can be counted.
Christopher H, Canberra, Australia
Devaluation of a currency is a shortcut in trying to revive an economy but comes at a price: it makes the UK people poorer. Can Mr. Kaletsky please explain why the Germans always wanted a strong German mark (and now euro) and how they still managed to maintain a positive balance of trade?
Eric, NL, NL
Why invest in the UK? Because there is less incentive to save as interest rates have fallen meaning less risk in investing. Also, this means our British goods are cheaper for foreign countries to export meaning potential growth in that sector. The only problem is imports be more expensive.
Alex Parmar-Yee, Hemel Hempstead, United Kingdom
Oh the good old days when we used to say how cheap it was to live in France, and with a better standard of living. Here's hoping global warming secures a few good years of hot English summers before the exchange rate corrects and we can resume our national passtime: purchase of the cote d'azur.
BP, London, UK
Nonsense, no numerical analysis, no comprehension whatsoever of currency deflation. Why invest in the UK when the pound is dropping 5% per month? If you believe this garbage put your money where your mouth is and invest in UK house building companies tomorrow.
Nadeem, St Andrews, Scotland