Anatole Kaletsky
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Shock. Horror. VAT could go up after the next election. Or it could go down - or stay the same. The same can be said of income tax and council tax and road tax. It can also be said about public spending, government deficits, the FTSE index, the oil price and the price of fish. So what?
Britain's political debate has descended into farce. The fault for this lies largely with Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling - not because of the contents of the Pre-Budget Report, which was sensible from an economic standpoint, but because of their political failure to explain why it made economic sense. This is a case where clever economics is covered up by stupid politics - not the other way round.
Starting with the sensible economics, the Chancellor is right to cut taxes and to spend and borrow through the recession, undeterred by rising deficit projections and the build-up of public debt. The main reason comes down to a simple proposition that almost nobody in politics seems to understand: for every saver there has to be a borrower.
This means that whenever people feel like they have borrowed too much and want to increase their savings, somebody else in the economy must increase borrowing to match the extra savings, pound for pound. Because every pound of savings is a claim on a pound of somebody's wealth - and the only way to acquire such a claim is either to invest directly in a house, a factory or a business asset, or to lend money to someone else who will do this for you. Putting money in the bank is just another form of lending, in this case to the bankers.
The reason why the Government is right to borrow on a scale almost never imagined is that private citizens and businesses are in a panic and have suddenly decided - or been forced - to cut back their borrowings and increase their savings to an equally unprecedented degree. And what if George Osborne were in charge and the government refused to borrow any extra money? Then the savings in the economy would diminish instead of growing, until they matched the lower level of borrowing that the private sector was willing to undertake. How would this happen? By throwing so many people out of work and bankrupting so many businesses that the extra saving desired by the population never took place. This is what is called a depression.
So much for sensible economics; now for the incompetent politics. The Chancellor and Prime Minister have failed to convey this message to the public, despite the worldwide endorsement of the fiscal stimulus. They have not even tried to rebut the many fallacious objections to Britain's fiscal policies that have taken hold in the media and financial markets. Worst of all, political mismanagement has allowed the confidence-building benefits of the fiscal stimulus in the PBR to be overwhelmed by an irrelevant argument over future tax policies and projections of public debt.
The debate is irrelevant for a very simple reason: nobody has the faintest idea how big the public debt will be when the recession is over, still less whether taxes and public spending will need to rise, fall or remain the same. The Treasury debt numbers published on Monday are not genuine forecasts, but mechanical projections, based on assumptions about global growth, stock market levels, exchange rates and a host of other variables. It is baffling that commentators and politicians who pour scorn on the “blunders” made by the Treasury six months ago in its Budget forecasts treat its projections of borrowing five years from now as if they were gospel truth.
Because Britain's economy is today more than ever in a “path dependent” state, whereby events in the next 12 months will overwhelm any long-term plans for public finances, a brave British politician would have done what President-elect Obama is likely to do when he announces his fiscal stimulus plans: first, acknowledge that the outlook for public finances was exceptionally foggy. Secondly, admit that some changes in tax and spending may be needed in the future, depending on how the economy performs in the next two years. Finally, keep all options open until the present turmoil is over and the outlook for global and British growth is clearer than it is today.
But wouldn't such vagueness about the long-term fiscal outlook have been punished by a collapse of confidence in financial markets? That this view is so prevalent, not only in the media and the City, but even in Whitehall, points again to a failure of political presentation, rather than economics.
Hysterical claims that Britain is on the brink of “national bankruptcy”, or that the Government has “run out of money” or that the pound is going the way of the Icelandic krona may be a normal part of political banter, but they are absurd. Britain's public debt-to-GDP ratio, at around 40 per cent, is the lowest among the G7 advanced economies and if it were to rise to 57 per cent, as suggested by Treasury projections, this would not present a serious problem. Nor would it drive up interest rates and inflation, to judge by the experience of Japan, Italy, France and Germany, all of which have public debt ratios above 57 per cent.
But what, you may ask, is the relevance of such international comparisons? After all, the misfortune of other countries does not make our Government any more solvent. Actually it does. For savers to lose faith in the paper money or bonds issued by the British Government, they have to put their savings into some other asset. So where are they going to turn? Will they invest in America, where the Government is about to announce an unfunded fiscal stimulus double the size of Britain's relative to GDP? Or in Japan or Europe, where not only are government debts much bigger than Britain's, but whose pension liabilities and demographic pressures are off the scale?
British savers who are worried about “national bankruptcy” but don't fancy speculating on the dollar, the yen or the euro have just two other options. They could pull their savings out of paper money and start buying real assets - houses, shares, commodities and so on. Or they could give up on saving and increase their spending. In the present crisis, with housing, share prices and consumer spending all collapsing, either of these responses would be exactly what the doctor ordered.
If Mr Brown had any gumption he would issue a simple challenge: “If you don't trust my Government with the public finances, why put your precious savings in pieces of paper signed by the Government and the Bank of England? Either invest in shares, houses or other assets of lasting value or just go out and spend.” But that would take political courage, as well as economic understanding.
Anatole Kaletsky writes for The Times Comment pages on Thursdays. One of the country's leading commentators on economics, he was formerly Economics Editor and is now Editor-at-large of The Times. He has won many awards for his financial and political journalism. Before joining The Times, he worked for 12 years on the Financial Times
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Solution will soften the downturn
Handkercheif when a parachute is needed. But we can't soley rely on the gov
As a bank manager for businesses, they're suffering, however they will get through this difficult time
We must be patient. 2yrs
To assist corporates we need to address Basle & SolvencyII
Peter Achilleos, Cambridge, UK
Anatole we are not short of consumers of wealth we are short of producers. The government as consumer will only work for so long then they to will be mired in debt. People still trust Gordon's paper money because the government has not yet destroyed the credibility of money, that will come later.
Stephen Hargreaves, Hobart, Australia
Mr Kaletsky, Remember what happened to Argentina in the 1980's? The fault is not Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling's failure to explain. It is they failed to prevent the catastrophe and worse are now bent on "doing something", "anything would do" mind set. They are dangerous to the economy.
S Yogarajah, Harrow, UK
Surely the right level of economic activity is one that the economy can sustain at a point in time, having to borrow £500 Billion clearly shows that whatever level the Labour government is hoping for isn't sustainable.
Gavin, London, GB
VAT is one of those taxes not used enough. Rather than make high tax payers pay 45% why not jack the VAT up to 50% on Porsches, Cartier watches and other overpriced luxury imports? That would help the government, the trade balance and the environment.
Nobody minds rich people in UK-built Astras.
Dave, Slough,
The book-keeping is one thing. No-one looks at the figures until confidence falls away. The important thing is to keep things moving and people working. Time to tighten up the benefit system that gives the work-shy money for doing nothing. Most people can contribute if they have to.
David, Bromley,
So presumably the Icelanders should have borrowed more then Mr Kaletsky?
But WHO from is the question? It is the withdrawal of credit (in large part from abroad) that is the problem.
N Reed, London, UK
The government's policy is akin to treating the symptoms rather than the underlying problem which is that the UK economy is too reliant on consumer confidence and consumer debt as the drivers of economic growth. To get a more resilient economy, we need more emphasis on manufacturing and exports.
Christian Rayner, Lancaster,
But what about leverage ... every pound we save is just taking up the big hole left by reduced leverage in bank's balance sheets.
Face it .. there's been a massive misallocation of resource and the whole heep needs to collapse and rebuild. It doesn not need to be reinflated arbitrarily.
Bob Dawes, London,
Another form of savings is taking your money out of the bank and stuffing it under your mattress. If you think that the banks are going to go under, and don't trust the share/property markets because you think they're going to keep going down for a while, it's rather a rational thing to do.
david bell, london,
Something isn't adding up here. Some of the big banks have been releasing figures showing increased lending to businesses. The timesonline ran an article on this on 21 nov. The whole issue is now being clouded by posturing politicians looking for a daily soundbite. Guess who ran the Dome project???
Ian Davidson, Fraserburgh, Scotland
'But that would take political courage, as well as economic understanding'
Buggins is lacking in both and Balls is a Cabinet member, not a Brown trait.
Yes to buying assets, instead of holding 'paper', and just as soon as I can find a suitably priced property.
m collins, Leeds,
David, London - that's because only a couple of months ago Lehman Brother's hadn't yet been allowed to go to the wall by an incompetant US administration.
Paul, London, UK
One key thing not mentioned here is what the borrowed money is spent on. If it's spent on productive capital and infrastructure improvments then the future will be bright, if it's spent on unproductive and overvalued assets (e.g. housing via govt sponsored mortgage borrowing) then we're doomed.
Ted, London, UK
This stuff about the 40% debt ratio is spurious, because it ignores PFI unitary charges, loved by government because it allows people to fund capital projects by a repayment that is 'off balance sheet'. So does anybody even know whether this would add 1-2% or 25-30% to the debt ratio?
Dru Brooke-Taylor, Bristol,
Anatole says that we do not have the faintest idea how big the public debt will be at the end of the recession. Part of the problem is that we do not have the faintest idea of our present TRUE debt level. This is probably true worldwide as other governments also fabricating figures.
Jim Cavanagh, Chorley, Lancashire
Markets recover only when they look cheap and represent good value. A way to go yet I would suggest
Anatole, I admire your undying faith in our 'dear leader' but nothing alters the fact that Brown drove growth with unsupported debt and the UK is about to go under thanks to Labour yet again.
D Case, Newquay,
The conclusion is, why buy Government Bonds ?
If recession hits other countries, they might just
ask the same question.
Sorry, I can't see any strength in being in debt.
M. Walker., Nr. Bromsgrove., Worcs.
Illogical and wrong. Kaletsky makes it sound like its UK savers lending to uk borowers. It's not. It's UK borrowers (sometimes these are our banks) borrowing from non uk lenders. Thats why we are a debtor nation. derrrrrrr.
julian dodds, london, uk
The only way out of this mess is to print money - which is what the Americans have now done to the tune of $1tr and have just announced a further $800bn. Of course, in time that mess will have to be cleared up but when the kitchen is on fire you use the fire extinguisher and then clean up the foam!
Nigel, Tonbridge,
You say: "for every saver there has to be a borrower." But doesn't this also mean "for every borrower there has to be a saver?" Just who is the "saver?" "Saving" does not mean simply spending less by borrowing less.
David, Philadelphia, USA
This article misses 1 important point. We no longer manufacture much. Therefore every £ borrowed by HMG goes to stimulate a Foriegn economy in the form of imports.Eg cars,steel,tv's,computers,shoes etc thus we go broke. Solution? Keynes only works in a closed economy.
John Taylor, Stortford, UK
As you seem to believe it impossible to predict with any sort of accuracy the future balance sheet of a country,why do you try.Being part of the generation that seems to think the only way to sustain growth is to inflate asset prices,notably housing,why don't you just stick to you zero rate demands
Tony Cox, Chelt,
"If you don't trust my Government with the public finances, why put your precious savings in pieces of paper signed by the Government and the Bank of England?"
I don't, I haven't, I brought Gold instead...
Chris, Wilts,
All our so called wealth and prosperity has been based on consumer spending, which in turn was financed by debt.
The paradox of thrift!
When consumers stop spending and pay down debt, the economy goes down the drain.
Stephen, Sydney, Australia
The Bank's outstanding balance sheets are only about 3 times the size of the GDP, and we are kindly taking them onto the nation's books whilst the bankers who created this keep their bonuses.
Asset prices aren't going to fall further, so what can go wrong?
Just like house prices were sustainable.
David Martin, Bristol, UK
An interesting point raised on the Daily Politics was that the UK government is now having to pay four times as much as Germany for the insurance required to cover any borrowing. In other words the UK is seen as four times riskier to lend to than Germany.
Any comments Mr.Kaletsky?
James, Swindon, uk
Mr Kaletsky, you have been consistently wrong throughout this credit crisis and this article is another example of your lack of understanding - only a couple of months ago you were saying there would be no recession and that inflation was our biggest worry
David, London,
Mr Kaletsky - you have missed one important form of saving in which many people are currently engaged - debt repayment. That is what I am doing - any extra pounds I earn are going straight off my credit card debts. That is the only prudent option given the current lack of job security.
Richard, Worcester, England