Andrew Sullivan
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It tells you something about the state of the American right that Rudy Giuliani is having a very hard time deciding whether to run for the Republican nomination in 2008. He either has the highest ratings of the plausible candidates among Republican voters, or near the highest.
His image will for ever be fused with the heroism of the response to 9/11. His legacy is the ravishing revival of New York City in the 1990s. Nobody doubts his effectiveness as a manager, or the charisma he brings to the political arena. No other Republican has his star power. And yet he has been inching only tentatively towards a real decision, and still hasn’t pulled the lever.
There are various plausible explanations for Giuliani’s equivocation. Some argue that the New York tabloids are sitting on a pile of sleaze to be hurled in his general direction once he hits the truly big time. It’s plausible. You don’t get to turn New York City around without knowing and persuading many unsavoury urban characters. It would not be a shock to discover that some of that rubbed off.
He’s also making a small fortune in the consultancy business and the speaking circuit — money he’d forfeit in a presidential run and clients who might not like the public scrutiny involved. Besides, he’s already a hero. Why ruin it with a campaign that would only expose all his faults, errors and flaws?
All of these factors might be at play in Giuliani’s mind. But the lukewarm response to him from the party’s base cannot be a plus. Here’s a quote of last week from a key leader of the religious right, Tony Perkins, head of the Family Research Council: “He’s the frontrunner but it’s kind of like here in DC, you drive over the Potomac [river] at night and it looks beautiful but if you get down near it you certainly wouldn’t want to take anything out of it and eat it. It’s polluted; it’s got problems.”
A more elevated expression of the base’s discomfort came from Terry Jeffrey last week. Jeffrey is an editor at Ronald Reagan’s favourite journal, Human Events and wrote a column for National Review, the leading conservative magazine, that politely described Giuliani as anathema to conservatism.
You might well rub your eyes. Giuliani is for low taxes, law and order (often at the expense of civil liberties) and strong defence. As a prosecutor, he went after white-collar crooks like Michael Milken and Marc Rich as well as mafia hoods. He has a sterling antiterrorist record. In 1995 he famously ejected the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat from a concert at the Lincoln Center in New York because Arafat had not been formally invited. “Maybe we should wake people up to the way this terrorist is being romanticised,” Giuliani explained.
You’d think this record would count as “conservative”. You’d think this colourful, capable, intelligent man would be the Republican party’s dream candidate. He was Time magazine’s person of the year in 2001. He has been called “America’s mayor”.
After a presidency criticised for incompetence, Giuliani is a details-oriented, results-driven manager. Seconds after his inauguration, Americans would feel safer.
But read Terry Jeffrey’s ideological indictment: “Giuliani’s positions on abortion and marriage disqualify him as a conservative because they annihilate the link between the natural law and man-made laws. Indeed, they use man-made law to promote and protect acts that violate the natural law.”
Giuliani’s heretical positions on abortion and marriage are as follows: he believes that abortion should be legal and that gay couples should be able to enter civil unions (but not civil marriage). The evangelical base of the Republicans believes that any civil recognition of gay couples is an attack on the family and that any defence of the right to a legal abortion is anathema.
For good measure, Giuliani is also fine with embryonic stem-cell research and mellow on immigration. So he would be to the right of David Cameron (he’d shoot a hoodie before he hugged one), but he is far too far to the left for the vocal elements of the Republican base.
Then there’s the personal life. Giuliani has been married three times. He divorced his second wife while having an affair with a staffer whom he then married. It got ugly for a while. Worse: during his estrangement from his second wife, he lived in the house of a gay couple who were friends. He has also dressed in drag on several occasions. You can YouTube a clip of him in full drag being courted by Donald Trump in a department store. New Yorkers loved it. But it doesn’t go down too well in South Carolina.
Or does it? The polling is extremely clear: Giuliani, for all his heretical tendencies, is still ahead of every other Republican candidate. Moreover, a recent Gallup poll found only 23% of Republican voters deeming him “unacceptable” compared with 41% saying the same for John McCain. The salient question to ask is: if Giuliani is so abhorrent to conservatives, why is he polling so well?
We don’t know the answer to that yet. It’s hard to gauge a campaign’s viability before it has begun. My view is that the managers and spokesmen of the base may be misreading the real mood of the evangelical rank and file. They’re more pragmatic than their leaders. If Hillary Clinton is the alternative, many Republicans will overlook Giuliani’s social moderation.
Moreover, there is a growing sense even among hardline conservatives that they may have overreached badly these past few years. Their stridency on abortion, gays, stem-cell research and end-of-life issues has begun to lose them many voters in the suburbs, the Midwest and the Mountain West. They are worried that the thumping loss in the midterm elections of 2006 was not a blip but the turning of a tide against them.
If they believe that, maybe Giuliani is the perfect antidote. Maybe he could rid the Republicans of their metastasising image as a Southern, intolerant and corrupt machine, and rebuild a more national and inclusive Republican party.
Or maybe, of course, his candidacy could be the final coup de grâce for a coalition already sinking under its own divisions. We don’t know yet — and neither does Rudy. So we wait for him, as he waits for others, and as the 2008 campaign waits for no one.

Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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There is no problem with the Republican candidates. They don't come out and oppose the war because they know a war on terror, and Iraq, a key hot spot for terror, is needed. Giuliani's policies support the defense of America and if nothing more a war on terror must remain in some ways, unless of course the Democrats don't want to fight their enemies. In my opinion, conservative America is being corrupted and liberal America is taking over...its just sad to see it happen and unless something magnificant happens with the Bush Administration people will have no faith with Republicans. I say COLBERT for President!
Benjamin Brocks, Compton,
The problem for Republican candidates is that they cannot come out and oppose the Iraq War without appearing disloyal to the incumbent. Democratic candidates can, and do. Mr Giuliani is enough of a maverick within the Republican Party to have a ghost of a chance.
My personal opinion is that next year's election will be an uphill battle for whoever the Republicans nominate for president. I certainly know there are no Republican candidates that I find of any interest, but I could happily vote for almost any of the Democratic candidates.
Carolyn Randall, Los Angeles, The Blue State of California
Who are the South going to vote for in a runoff bettwen Hillary & Rudy? Would an independent run as a spoiler? Have these guys never heard of picking the lesser of two evils?
Scott, Dublin, Ireland
Regarding Anthony Sarrin's review of "The Rosetta Stone and th Rebirth of Ancient Egypt" he refers to the stone being made of granite. Anthony I don't know if you're quoting John Ray or not but that's geologically wrong. It's granodoriote - you refer to black granite. There's no such thing.
David Morris, Godalming, UK
Giuliani polls well for several reasons: (1) there are few Republicans or Democrats who actually state a position and stick to it; (2) he wrapped himself in the flag after 9/11 and was therefore untouchable; no one expects a mayor to stop terrorists; and (3) he simply said no whenever possible; no to unions, no to hysterical local leaders, and no to business as usual in New York City.
The question becomes, I think, what will the glare of a national campaign expose Giuliani to be? A legitimate national contender, or a retired mayor.
Bill, Ossining, New York
Thats because no one knows Mr. Giuliani like New Yorkers know Mr. Giuliani and everything will eventually come out during a long national campaign. Until the morning of 9/11 Mr. Giuliani was the failed mayor of New York that was being relegated to the back burner of the Republican Party politics. He was well know in New York City for his divisive policies, the taking credit of others accomplishments (just ask ex-Police Commissioner Bratton) and for micro-managing City Hall. Besides his politics (pro-choice, anti-guns, pro-gay rights, pro-stem-cell research, etc.) are everything the Republican Party is against. Mr. Giuliani is right for thinking long and hard and just like his abortive run for the US Senate, after his extended 15 minutes in the sun, he will find a way to gracefully stand down.
Michael, London, England
I happen to support Rudy's views on abortion, gay rights (although I'm in favor of gay marriage, not just civil unions) and gun control. However, I would vote for him just because of the way he spit in the face of the loathsome Yasser Arafat and told Saudi Prince Alaweed where he could shove his $10 million check following the attacks on 9/11.
Tessa, Huntington, NY,
"Giuliani is for low taxes, law and order (often at the expense of civil liberties)"
What a joke and baseless accusation. Please name the "civil liberties" you refer to.
darwin, Norfolk , VA
Barack Obama is well to the right of Cameron.
Russell, London,
Because they don't know what New Yorkers do about his treatment of his ex wife, involvement with questionable characters (Bernie Kerik, etc) and many bad decesions that made 9/11 worse, like putting the Emergency Cammand Center in the World Trade Center in a building that stored diesel fuel. See what his numbers are for the city and compare them with those from outsider NY.
Rick Christel, New York, New York
Giuliani is polling so well despte his awfulness because this is the same country that elected the even more horrible George W. Bush to office.
Understand now?
Frederick, New York City, USA
So, Rudy Giuliani is to the right of David Cameron? Surely that can't be very difficult?
Herbert Thornton, Victoria, Canada
Guiliani would be a disaster as president. Three marriages? Pro-choice? Pro gay marriage? If he gets the GOP nomination in 08 it would signal a complete refuation of the core principles of the Republican party. A Guiliani candidacy would lead the rank and file, i.e., evangelical Christians, to stay home as they did in 2006. The result? Madame President Hillary Clinton. For the sake of our country, we can only hope.
freedomfighter, pittsburgh, PA
Well Eric, you are no George Orwell and most of us in the rest of the World do think that the New Yorkers are bright, sophisticated and intellectual in a way that the rest of you are not. In fact many of you on the religious right look and sound quite as scary as the fundamental Islamists you have provoked and stirred up by your ridiculous antics over the past many years. If the Republicans miss out on Guiliani and let in the awful lesser Clinton, then they deserve to stay in the wilderness for ever.
Frankland Macdonald Wood, Sansepolcro 52037, Italy
9/11. that's leadership.
jeff, chicago, usa
Basically I am an Independent and a political junkie. Now that Rudy has declared his candidacy, I've gotta say that I hope he will be our next President given the field of hopefuls in both parties at this point in time. Hillary? PU. Obama? Not a chance. It's too early in the game to be picking winners, but if I was voting today (or tomorrow or next week.) Unless it would be Rudy Guiliani without breaking a sweat.
Edie Goldman, Carmel, CA
The social conservatives dislike Giuliani for another reason: He is lukewarm (at best) on gun rights. As mayor of New York City, Giuliani actually sued many gun manufacturers, and his police commissioner was strongly in favor of strong gun control regulations. Even more than abortion, gun control is a non-starter in heartland America, even in the rural areas of otherwise liberal states like Vermont.
What social conservatives are looking for is a pledge by Giuliani that he will appoint only judges to the courts who will fully support gun rights (as well as the other things like banning abortion).
rightside, lowell, MA
When you say no other Replucian has his star power you mean no other potential Republican 08 candidate. Schwarzenegger certainly has more star power.
Oz, Queensland, Australia
As a life long westerner (living on the Idaho/Washington State line) I'd agree that many here detest the arrogance of the NE and their infamous political machines. This is reason one why Clinton has big problems west of Buffalo. We also resent the front loaded eest of the Mississippi primary process. But even more we detest the undue influence of southern evangelicals and their 1 out of 5 voter minority rule. We are proudly unchurched, like to do our own thinking, and are fed up with Dobson and his gang of merry riders. If Rudy enters, at least in the intermountain west he'd have only Edwards to contend with. I doubt it would be much of a match...
timbo, Newport, Washington
It's name recongnition and that's why he's polling so well! When Republicans are confronted with his pro-choice( to kill) position and his radical pro-gay views he will never win the nomination...
Veronica Sheehan, Brooklyn, NY
Andrew ... you're a pretty internet savvy guy. Please let me have your thoughts on why Rudy's appearance on The Today Show in October, 2004 when asked for his opinion just after one of the other "non" stories on the handling of the Iraq War .... this one on all the missing stock piles of weapons and this is the response:
Giuliani: "The president was cautious the president was prudent the president did what a commander in chief should do. No matter how you try to blame it on the president the actual responsibility for it really would be for the troops that were there. Did they search carefully enough? Didn't they search carefully enough?"
Why is it that it is so unpatriotic when a whiff of even suspected less than fervent support of those in uniform hanging in the air near a member of the democratic party sends the spin cycle at full bore and the sort of clear, concise, non-equivacal statement above gets no play at all?
May I have some thoughts from you?
Patty, Akron, Ohio
At this point he has little or no real competent opposition in the Republican Party. As soon as that competition announces, Rudy will disappear.
E.V. Blissard, Huntsville, Walker, Texas
Perception is relaity.
New Yorkers were sick of Guiliani - his brashness, his arrogance, and his hubris.a Then 9/11 occured and he was perceived to have a heroic posture.
When America scratches beneath the heroic veneer, they too will discover a thin skinned, arrogant, power hungry, little man.
Gary Engler, Lebanon, NY
Who owns the polling company and what are their political goals? One cannot trust polls unless one can trust the pollers. The Gallup polling company was compromised during WWII when the British Government bought it sureptuously and started issuing fake poll results showing increased US public support for war against Germany.
Doug@usa.com, Anytown, USA
When all is said and done, 2008 can hardly be a Republican year. The worm has turned and there is a feeling of the need for change on a whole front of issues. In any case, Mc Cain is still outgunning Guilani 37 to 23 on www.intrade.com a political betting site. My guess is that Americans may be more ready for a female President than a New York Italian American. Prejudice against NYers still runs deep outside the East Coast.
oldasiahand, Guildford, Surrey
One thing separates Rudy from all other politicians. When you
ask him a question he gives you a direct answer. And the answer
is clear and usually persuasive. One thing is sure, debates
are going to be worth watching this time around......and that goes for both parties.
sal asselta, san diego,
Rudy Giuliani did an incredible job cleaning up N.Y.C. If he could do even half as well cleaning up the current mess in the rest of the country, the U.S. would be in pretty good shape. I'd vote for him in a minute to give him the opportunity to try. And Erick, you must not have ever lived in N.Y.C., otherwise you would know that although it may be unpopular in much of America, that's because it IS the center of the world, and everyone else IS stupid!
Ellen Sarbone, San Francisco, CA/USA
Previously, you could read the Times via "newspaper edition" which was easy to read.
Can you do this with the new version?
Joy, glasgow,
Rudd will become good president.But conservative dominated republicans will they allow him to run for the presidency is big question.
Rudd has an easy opponent in John McCain as John seems to be too old for Presidency.Amercians have to elect responsible President .Rudd fits well above all other candidates.Rudd if he has to win American election, he should not have the endorsement of the present President, but to win approval from Republican party he needs the support of America's most unpopular President.
I pity any contestant for republican nominations as they are considered an associate of this unworthy present regime.
viswanath, HERTS,
He seemed very popular when we were in NY recently - go for it G
IAN PAYNE, Lichfield - STAFFORDSHIRE,
Poor Andy really needs to go see the Doc and adjust his medication. If Rudy Giuliani is a conserative then Britain's George Galloway is a Right wing nut. I mean come on! Andy's been deeply confused for some years now. Rudy has less chance of being elected President than Ronald McDonald. I'd bet a very large sum of cash on that. Want to match me Andrew? I thought not. Folks in New York hate to hear this but NYC is not the center of the world and is deeply unpopular in much of America. New Yorkers know this is true but irrationally take this as evidence that everyone else is stupid..
Erick Blair, LA, California
Plus despite his record as a true hero, there may be some thinking that John McCain's age is disqualifying. As a fiscal conservative, Rudy's fine by me. I think he can beat Hillary and put some states in play for the Republicans that they've essentially given up on for the last several cycles. At the end of the day, that may decide it for him, because nothing will unite the Republican "base" like the thought of another "President Clinton."
Jerry Hudson, Bradenton, Florida