Andrew Sullivan
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From the perspective of Washington, what is now unfolding in Gaza may well be viewed as a vindication of neoconservatism.
Neoconservatives, after all, have long argued that the root cause of terrorism and autocracy in the Middle East is not American meddling or Israeli error, or even oil. It’s fundamentally about a deep-seated Arab political culture that has never had an experience of democracy or produced a polity not dominated by tribalism, monarchism, autocracy or Islamism.
It’s about an Arab political culture that is the most hostile to western concepts of individual citizenship, liberty or the rule of law of almost any culture on the planet.
Arabs, in the judgment of neoconservatives, are tragically not very interested in self-government as the West understands it, and never have been. They are interested in family, tribe, religion and, when all else fails (and often when it doesn’t), brutal violence. If you haven’t watched Lawrence of Arabia recently it’s ravishingly persuasive on this point.
Whatever one’s view of this analysis, it seems obvious that even the most virulent of Israel’s critics cannot blame the current barbarism in Gaza on the Jews. After all, the Israelis withdrew, didn’t they? The main Arab states and Europe backed the moderate Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, didn’t they? A power-sharing deal was brokered between Fatah and Hamas by the Arab states.
And yet civil war still rages. What you see in Gaza, moreover, is what you see anywhere in the Arab world where order is not imposed by overwhelming force or a police state or a monarchy. You see total anarchy and barbarism. You see Iraq.
The complementary neoconservative view is no rosier. It is that Hamas’s rise in Gaza must be seen in the broader regional context of Iran’s Shi’ite revival and regional and global aspirations.
Here is how Charles Krauthammer, the neoconservative columnist, put it on Fox News last week: “Hamas is supplied and financed by Iran. Iran has now a constellation of allies and clients in that region, the way the Sovi-ets had around the world. It’s got Hamas now in Gaza, it’s got Hezbollah in Lebanon, it’s got Sadr in Iraq. And it has a country, Syria, as its only Arab ally in that region.
“It’s an Iranian client crescent, and it is the beginning of a general Iranian, Islamist revolutionary infiltration of the Arabs. It’s the beginning of a great struggle between Persian, nonArab, Shi’ite and radical Iran with all of these Arabs.”
Cheery, isn’t he. But sadly persuasive. The evidence of rising Islamic fundamentalism among the Palestinians is impossible to ignore. This is not Yasser Arafat’s secular Palestine. It is something even more troubling.
“The era of justice and Islamic rule have arrived,” announced Islam Shahawan, a spokesman for Hamas’s militia, as Islamist thugs walked their opponents out on the street and shot them in the head. Religious violence is much harder to contain or to moderate than violence vested in a desire for mere territory or revenge or worldly power. If God sanctions violence without end, then violence will continue without end.
It’s also clear how many Washington neocons will interpret the Gaza meltdown. They will either use it as grist for the case for launching a military strike on Hamas’s protector and funder Iran. Or they will argue that the dangers of Hamas in Gaza are a harbinger of what would happen if the US were to withdraw from Iraq.
As Ralph Peters, a former military intelligence officer, explained in the New York Post last Thursday: “We’re stuck in Iraq, and it sucks. But were we to leave in haste, far more blood than oil would flow in the Persian Gulf. The disaster in Gaza’s just a rehearsal for the Arab-suicide drama awaiting its opening night in Iraq.”
But here, it seems to me, neoconservatism begins to devour itself. For the sake of argument, assume the premise about the violent dysfunctionality of Arab political culture. (I’d say it’s more complicated than that, and Israel’s and America’s mistakes have compounded the Arab suicide. Nonetheless, suicide is ultimately something you really have to do to yourself, and the Palestinians have long since perfected the art.) Now ask yourself: if that’s correct, how on earth did neoconservatives ever argue that we could produce a functioning democracy by force of arms in Iraq?
This is surely the self-contradiction at the heart of neoconservatism. Even at the maximum surge strength, America is helpless in the face of an Iraqi civil war that has only just begun, can be fuelled indefinitely by corrupt oil money, and is driven by centuries-old sectarian hatred between Shi’ite and Sunni Muslims and decades of totalitarian trauma. And yet the neocons insist we should plough on, adding more troops, planning on permanent bases for indefinite occupation.
Well, you can’t have it both ways. Either Arab culture without autocracy really is what we see in Gaza and Iraq or it isn’t. If it is, then trying to build western-style democracy during a brutal civil war in Iraq is a mug’s game.
We have, I think, two options. We can withdraw from Iraq and play the grand regional Shi’ite-Sunni war in the Middle East by proxy. Or we can enmesh ourselves much more deeply and irrevocably in a metastasising conflict. Such a conflict may well breed even more antiwestern terror and run the risk of inserting Americans into an ancient sectarian blood feud.
There are grave dangers in both options and no one should underestimate the risks of withdrawal from a power vacuum we created. But surely the lesson of Gaza and Iraq is that occupation will not transform Arab culture for the better either. It may in fact make things worse.
What I guess I’m saying is that if you take neoconservatism seriously as an analysis of Arab culture and the regional conflict in the Middle East, and you are primarily interested in the defence of the West, the case for cutting our losses in Iraq is a very strong one.
But somehow the neocons are afraid to follow their argument to its logical and inexorable conclusion. We need to leave. Soon. Or reap a gathering whirlwind.
Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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"the subsequent Anglo-American invasion of Iraq, without a UN mandate, was in itself a dictatorial violation of the UN Charter. The law is the law and nobody is above it"
The UN Charter is not "law". The UN is a voluntary organisation, a club, and does not have the sovereign authority to tell anyone what they can or can't do. There was no 'dictatorial violation' of anything involved.
Indeed, the UK and US showed immense restraint in giving the time-wasters at the UN - Germany, France, Russia, the ones who were simply looking after their own interests (and why not; but claiming they were not doing that was sheer hypocrisy) - a chance to come up with something different. They couldn't do it, of course.
What 'Israeli errors', Sullivan? Defending their lives? How very terrible of them.
Ann Sinclair, Manchester,
Mr. Sullivan, let me ask you this regarding our American troops and the situation around the world. Look at Japan, Germany, and many other countries that we have fought previously in over the decades, why do we still have military bases and troops on standby in countries that we have not fought with in years? Do you think that Democracy and Freedom comes overnight? In regards to Iraq, let me say this. You can turn a free man into a slave with ease, however the opposite is much harder. Under Saddam's rule the people of that country were powerless, now that he is gone the country can enjoy freedom. The reason for the current "civil war" in my opinion, is that the current generation of Iraqi's are fighting over their view of "Freedom". It won't be until the next generation of Iraqi's to take charge and make that country bloom. If we "get out fast" as you say then all the sacrifices our American heroes have made will be in vain.
Mike, Oshkosh, WI
Let's face the facts. The borders of Iraq have never been set in the sand like the UK coastline, and Saddam thought he could get away with it when he invaded Kuwait. The UN told him he couldn't, and turfed him out. So in defiance he launched missiles against Israel as he made his exit from Kuwait. Military nonsense, of course, but politically significant: in terms of sociolinguistics, the missiles constituted a "communicative function", a public accusation that the friends of Israel in the USA had turfed him out of Kuwait. His analysis was correct, but his response foolish, since these same friends made sure he would never launch missiles against Israel again.
In broad terms, however, this was not a struggle between democracy and dictatorship, since the subsequent Anglo-American invasion of Iraq, without a UN mandate, was in itself a dictatorial violation of the UN Charter. The law is the law and nobody is above it.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
The neo conservative view was that democracy could be imposed on muslim countries by force. That view has
certainly not been vindicated.
John, LONDON,
We should have never started the war with Iraq - regardless of Saddam. I still believe it is an illegal war fought under false pretense and we have created more enemies around the world because of this action. I agree, we need to get out - this isn't about winning anymore - NOBODY WINS here. Countless lives have been lost on the Iraqi side and too many on the American and coalition sides. It is out of hand and our Congress has to do the right thing by the American people and the rest of the world and bring our people home. Once things calm down we should offer help to rebuild, but at this point, this is a civil war and we have no place there. It would have been nice if the ultimate person who made the decision to go storming into that nation would have simply looked at the historical information available at the time of the invasion. It was a bad idea then and now. Bring the troops home.
Robin Stone, Rochester, NY / USA
Is President Putin showing the way forward? When strongmen Tito died the Balkans imploded, Arafat's death has sundered Palastinian unity, the usurping of Saadam and imposing democracy has invoked civil war - always the bloodiest kind of strife. But in Russia the end of the Soviet Union and the financial /social meltdown has been addressed by a new hard man; President Putin who has grabbed his country and forced it to support him without the brutal baggage that the Tsars and communists imposed. Putin seems to have got it right- like the arabs he's got oil as a financial weapon and is canny about using it. President Bush and the other foolish incompetants leading their great country to a crushing defeat of all their ideals as well a their military objectives would do well to find out how to be a hard man and keep the rest of the World on your side.
gordy, London,
War is big business for the right people. It is the biggest and most profitable business on Earth. Think about that!
Garth Strong, Sherman Oaks, USA
Thanks to the American posters.
I'm a Brit living in Calif' for 20 yrs. When I came here, the US was truly still the torch bearer for freedom and ideals of liberty, fairness under the rule of law. Not perfect, where is? but we honestly tried. Like most people around the globe, it felt safe knowing the USA was there.
Now I feel a mix of sadness and anger about my adopted home.
Since GW Bush and the ultra-right have been in power, the whole place is poisoned. Abu Grahb, Guantanamo, heabeas corpus - optional, an imperial Presidency, fundamentlist religion in the corridors of power. (Evolution? Not science here.)
And the biggest utter mess of all, Iraq. Raw imperialism at it's worst. I wish I could wake up in 1985 and start again.
K Wells, Los Angeles, CA, USA
This is the first time I have ever sent mail from here in northern france (long story-3 yrs in waitin ) isolated here (another long st) now 37 with 2 girls ( 9 & 7) & nothing to fall back on but my meanial background from UK schools (although they have fully intergrated..bein here 4 1 full sch year) & heard bout web site on radio 4 womans hr. Put me down as top slummy mum..... cause although life seems idilic to all those who visit.....there are hidden pressures...
sarah Lambert, saussey, france
The whole middle east will completely be nucler armed within 10-20 years. 'NEVER AGAIN WILL WE BE IRAQED!
abdul ali, tehran, iran
Maybe this is giving far more credit than what is due, but has no one considered the notion that maybe Bush knew more what he was doing than it first appears? Surely he had more intelligent/informed people telling him the outcome.
I was thinking the other day.. it doesn't take a genius to realize that removing Saddam would throw Iraq into this situation. Sunnis and Shi'ites have been killing eachother for thousands of years. With such polarizing forces within the country and bordering it, it should not be so hard to visualize this implosion. True Western-style democracy does not work in the Middle East... especially where Sunnis and Shi'ites will be at eachother's throats. It requires someone ruthless to keep them in check.
What if post-9/11, Washington postulated the idea that by destabilizing the Middle East and turning it into a civil war-esque region, their hatred and energy would turn in towards themselves rather than toward the West. Make them their own worst enemy.
MG, Florida,
Mr. Andrew, what you are saying makes so much sense and can be verified by just looking at the history of that region. It is not my place to analyze the Arab culture, but I can observe. And what I see is a culture that is steeped in centuries of sectarian prejudice fueled by a righteous religious viewpoint that mandates the murder of all those that disagree. It is far beyond something that I can think with. It makes me sad as, being a Westerner and brought up on the ideals of democracy and the values that foster it, I don't see a resolution that can be produced by what we are doing there today. I see this sadness in the face and demeanor of President Bush. He is an idealist as most American presidents are, but is finding out the application of this idealism into the Arab street beyond impossible. Military force will not foster the needed change. Some pervasive spiritual awakening throughout the Arab world will have to take place to lift them above their insanity.
G. Zino, L.A. USA
Guy Zino, Los Angeles, USA/CA
Andrew as a American I have to say that your absolutely right. We have a delusional incompetent for a president and evil doers {their term } for his cabinet. Sadly we have pulled your country into this mess with us and now you are paying the price in Britain for the fanaticism of the Bush white house.Every day I dispair at the loss of life,the loss of credibilty and for the sanity of those follow the republican party like rats behind the pied piper. Yes we're helpless in this war perhaps Gordon Browne can atleast save more of your people if not ours.
sonya williams, muskegon, usa/ muskegon
It's the allies who are causing the civil war...DELIBERATELY.
Mike, Manchester, UK
Rob Gennet's arguement that hindsight is 20/20 is absurd. Too many of those who actively supported the war and continue to argue there was no alternative or that no one could have predicted the present calamity, blow raspberries at those of us, who from the start, said it was a bad idea and would result in disaster. May I suggest he reads the late Robin Cook's resignation speech, delivered to the House of Commons before the commencement of hostilities. Cook was not a siren voice, he spoke for many, many people and his predictions outlined in his speech have, almost to a word, come true. I accept that Sullivan may have changed his position as events have developed, but he like most of those who gave Blair and Bush carte blanche, never asked any difficult questions, surely the role of any journalist, and too often dismissed the concerns of those who argued caution. The lack of honesty by the neocon media community is startling - black remains white.
Benedict Bannister, Paris, France
Wow Mr. Sullivan! Only now you figure out it's time to get out of Iraq? Not without insulting the Arabs of course. They are not worthy of our benevolence, are they?
Sinisa, Hamilton,
Very good article on Gaza by Brenda Maddox in yesterday's Times - well worth reading.
Bob , London , UK
Before the Iraq war, it was considered racist in the extreme to say that Arab political culture was... what we are now seeing in Iraq and Gaza. Even now, I do not know if it is the culture of all the Arabs, or the majority, or even a substantial minority. All we know is that it is the culture of the ones who have most of the guns and bombs.
Nobody is speaking for whatever sane Arabs there may be. I don't care if the crazies kill each other. That may be the best solution for all concerned. But I do wonder what will happen to the others. Many have probably left home by now. Will the rest get the chance to leave? Where will they go, and what will happen to them?
M.C., Virginia, USA
"Sullivan Option One" has consequences similar to the Hama massacre of 1982. 30,000+ of the Muslim Brotherhood were slaughtered by Bashar al-Assad's uncle, with minimal US, UK, or Israeli interference or concern. It's a fresher, more reality-based understanding than Peter O'Toole and Sir Alec. "Sullivan Option Two" has US/UK players in the same game as Hama. I am merely demonstrating the tactics and scale of the carnage if one side of the Muslim civil war has its way. Why have reason, democracy, the rule of law, or self-governance when "God sanctions violence without end?"
M.S.Harmanos, Orange County, California, USA,
I invited my christian Palestinian neighbor, who left Ramalhahh(?) twenty years ago, to go for a walk with me Saturday. Her comments regarding the present continuing saga in the West Bank and Gaza, were to blame the Jews, "They trained all these terrorists!" "Poor Aarafat....". What strikes me is that she thinks I'm not familiar with history or current events. I wasn't about to get into an agrument with her..she lives next door!
mp, Plymouth, MI,USA
Ever hear of the term "Hindsight is 20/20" F.S Summers? If not, you might want to look it up. Criticising Andrew Sullivan for not being among "the informed" is both preposterous and revealing of an innate arrogance; not to mention obnoxious. "I told you so" is one of the most childish tactics one can use in an intellectual discussion.
The intellectual honesty and humility that Mr. Sullivan has shown over the years as his opinion on the Iraq war evolved is a rare and refreshing thing and is in stark contrast to your smug, self-satisfied, ignorant posting. So you really KNEW what was going to happen along with your "informed" peers? Great job Nostradamus!
Rob Gennet, New York, NY
As obvious as these lessons seem to any sane individual , I'm sure this lovely Government will ignore them and carry on regardless , because , otherwise , it might look as if they had made a mistake joining this war in the first place . That would make them look foolish ... and we can't have that . Therefore more of our soldiers will die pointlessly on foreign soil , achieving nothing but delaying the inevitable .
Civil war in Iraq was inevitable the moment we got rid of Saddam .
How many thousands of shia and sunni will die this time ? It will all be our fault , because apparently , Iraq deserved better than Saddam . Well I hope everyone who backed the war is pleased with whats been achieved .
I'm just left appalled and embarrassed !
Benzo, Nr Chelmsford,
Welcome to the reality of a post Saddam Iraq Andrew.
You are just catching up now to what the informed knew would happen 4 years ago. Where have you been...
Pay more attention next time, try listening a little harder, and, maybe, you won't be so late to the obvious conclusions.
F.S.Summers, London,
I may be cynical, but, it seems to me that the US dependence on its domestic arms industry is so enormous that it is in their interest to ensure continuing local conflicts.
The Arabs have taken the view that the ungodly US is their natural enemy and must be punished.
Israel, the presumed puppet state of the US, represents a further justification for their suicide missions.
Is there a solution?
I think there may be.
If Bush were to gift, say, Florida in exchange for the Israelis vacating their present homeland - largely artificial, being a poor compromise, cobbled together by Roosevelt; Stalin & Churchill - the Arabs could resume their 2000 year old local disputes.
Immediately thereafter, the US could withdraw from Iraq, with some tattered dignity.
Perhaps no oil, but they can't have everything the
MYLES STANISTREET, CONDOM (aka Durexxe-sur-dik), FRANCE 32
The neocons have been clueless from the start and blaming Arab culture seems pointless. The neocons inhabit an insular world and most of them know very little about the world outside DC. It's not clear what the U.S. is now trying to achieve in Iraq. Is the aim really to achieve a functioning Western style democracy? The UK bequeathed parliaments to most of its former colonies but we know that making democracy work takes time and the success rate is not high. My view is that given the religious divisions in Iraq, democracy is not going to take hold and civil war is inevitable. What is plan B?
brian case, burlington, va