Every few years the political and media class notice the young. The temptation
is acute. Who doesn’t want to look into the future?
The reasoning is that the political and social views you form in the first
years of adulthood are often pivotal ones. In many ways, for example, the
divide in American politics today is an echo of the divide in the Vietnam
era, when today’s baby-boomer political leaders came of age.
Bush and Kerry deepened the resonance of that war for the new millennium – one
a conservative who stayed in the US, the other a liberal who fought in the
war and then campaigned against it. And so many are eager to see Iraq in the
same way: the moment when an entire generation of Americans commit to one
view of the world or another. The inference is that the young must surely be
the most antiwar of any age cohort. After all, their peers are the ones
fighting and dying.
The inference is wrong – and long has been. In the early days of Vietnam, the
war even enjoyed popularity among many young Americans. That changed, of
course, with events – but even then, the class divide between antiwar
college kids and the rest was acute. But the young are often not as
jaundiced as their elders. And the polling results on Iraq are more
intriguing than you might expect.
Last week we got some fresh data. MTV, The New York Times and CBS conducted a
large survey of 17 to 29-year-olds. The results show that the underthirties
are marginally more supportive of and optimistic about Iraq than the rest of
the country: 27% believe the war is going somewhat or very well, compared
with 23% of the entire population; 51% believe the war is somewhat or very
likely to succeed (6% more than the total population).
Americans are a naturally optimistic nation; and the younger they are, the
more hope they have: 31% of the underthirties even believe the chaotic
occupation of Iraq has made the US safer. Fewer than one in five believe it
has made the US less safe, and 38% believe that going to war in Iraq was the
right thing to do, compared with 35% of all adults. If you want to find the
most antiwar part of the population, you need to look at senior citizens,
not the young.
Does this make the next generation more conservative? On some issues, the
answer seems to be yes. Take abortion. The underthirties are marginally more
opposed to abortion than their parents: One in four want it made illegal
altogether. Thirty-seven per cent of the underthirties are pro-choice,
compared with 39% of the population; 38% of the underthirties want more
restrictions.
The young are also slightly less likely to support gun control than their
elders, even in the wake of the college shootings at Virginia Tech. A solid
43% of the underthirties, moreover, believe being gay is a choice, compared
with only 34% of the general population. Seventy-four per cent said that
most people they know would not vote for a president who had ever used
cocaine.
So are they a more Republican generation than Democrat? Here’s where the
surprise is. Despite their marginally more conservative views on the war and
Iraq, the underthirties are strikingly more committed to the Democratic
party than at any time since the high-water mark of young Republicanism in
the Reagan Eighties. Bush has turned out to be a reverse-Reagan.
This has something to do with the fact that the underthirties are less white
than their elders. But it’s hard to explain the massive gulf that has opened
up between the parties by race alone.
Take the presidential candidates. Barack Obama is the favourite, with 18%
“enthusiastic” support, but Clinton is essentially tied at 17%. The first
Republican, Giuliani, comes in at 4%. Both Obama and Clinton each have more
enthusiasm from the young than the entire Republican field combined. The
generic party support comes out at 54% Democratic to 32% Republican.
Fifty-two per cent believe the Democrats reflect their moral values,
compared with 36% backing the Republicans. This is grim news for the right.
Even grimmer: 62% want a government takeover of health insurance, compared
with 47% of all adults. Forty-four per cent favour marriage rights for gay
couples, compared with 28% of all adults.
Some shifts in the US now seem simply a matter of time. The private healthcare
system appears doomed – as young Americans favour government control and
rationing of healthcare rather than the free-market system they now have.
Ninety per cent of the underthirties either want fundamental changes or a
complete rebuild of the system. Michael Moore’s new movie should do well at
the box office. And very few now doubt that marriage rights for gay couples
is simply a matter of waiting for the older generation to die.
The usual caveat to all this is that the young will get more conservative as
they get older, and that the young don’t vote anyway. The historical trends
don’t really confirm this. Barring major events, people’s political make-up
is often formed in their twenties. The Republican triumvirate of Bush, Dick
Cheney and Karl Rove have poisoned their party’s image for a generation. And
the evidence suggests that the young are actually becoming more reliable
voters. In the last two election cycles, the under30 vote has increased at
twice the rate of the total voting population. It’s still underrepresented.
But less so than before.
My own sense is that the next generation is not ideologically leftist. Their
support for a government takeover of healthcare is more of a pragmatic
response to the insecurities and inefficiencies of the status quo than a
clear-eyed assessment of the alternative.
The same with drugs: most of the young have become completely tolerant of
marijuana use, but draw the line at cocaine and harder drugs. Again, this is
less a left-right issue than a pragmatic-ideological issue. Similarly
homosexuality. The underthirties are the first generation to grow up
alongside openly gay peers and to have the concept of gay marriage as part
of their background noise. It is not a big leap to put the two together –
and certainly not as a big a leap as for those who have lived their entire
lives associating marriage exclusively with heterosexuality.
As for party identification, the truth is that the Republicans have never been
as incoherent, corrupt or ridiculous in my lifetime. The preference for the
Democrats can be explained in part by default. Ditto the candidates. If the
Republican elite is underwhelmed by the current crop, why do they expect the
unaffiliated young to feel any differently? And there is a cultural
alienation among the Republican leadership: a crew of old, white, straight
men who do not even begin to speak the language of Generation Next. Obama
and Clinton simply reflect the cultural reality of a multicultural,
multiracial generation.
On this, perhaps, the immigration question is one of the more salient. Last
week, the Republican base defeated an attempt at a bipartisan immigration
deal, in a debate that, for all the merits of the arguments on both sides,
was conducted with an excess of cultural and social fear and loathing.
The young heard it. And young blacks and Latinos heard it more clearly. It’s
about time the Republicans realised that the next generation is less white
and less afraid than a lot of their elders.
Help for the people affected by floods, especially children
I have just had a chat with my friend who came back from a week with her grandchildren. Now she is home she cannot stop thinking about the families whose houses are ruined, who have to live in other accommodation at the moment, and the children who have lost their clothes and toys. Can we help the children now, if they need clothes and toys? Is there an organisation or charity that is doing this?
Can this not be seen as a national disaster with a charity to which we can contribute?
Can we extend our assistance by giving our time working to assist these families to clean up and redecorate their homes? Many people are moved by this and will give time to form teams and work to assist the clearing up, to decorate, to move furniture etc. Is there a charity or body that can organise this?
Jane Lewis, Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire
Regarding your headline - surely Americans are a naturally optimistic people, not nation?
pfffill, London,
America is referred to "America" because the USA was established as a country prior to the designation of the continents. The designation of names were constituted after Amerigo Vespucci, the Italian explorer, discovered the lands in western hemisphere. Thanks to Tom P. for arousing my participation with this comment. I'm proud to be an American!
Leo , Phoenix, USA, AZ
Stop fretting about "gay marriage" -- why not have civil partnerships like we do in the UK? Not religious at all, just the way some people like it.
Marc, Newcastle, UK
Doug Collman, Denver, Colorado, USA
Your comments about health care in France are totally inaccurate. It is available to all and is generally regarded as one of the best in the world. Perhaps your comments demonstrate the reason for the so-called "Optimism" in the younger generation. The willingness to express an opinion based on a total lack of facts on the subject. The willingmess to repeat comments without questioning their validity? Also that a significant proportion of Americans believe that the war in Iraq is right and is working? That they now feel safer? That they will vote Republican in 2008?? Unbelievable!
Happy 4th everyone.
R Bingham, Lauzun, France
I think you limit American Optimism when you state it is a characteristic of those under 30. I have traveled and worked in the UK, Sweden, and Japan. In none of these countries to a get a sense that hard work and risk taking will be rewarded. Only in America do so many, have so much opportunity, to achieve great things. I think our since of optimism is inherently tied to our Freedom from caste, status, and race.
John, Victoria, Minnesota, USA
When I contrast US citizens of my acquaintance that are resident in Japan (where I have made my home), with the contributions of many US Internet correspondents resident in the US, I have difficulty reconciling the two disparate groups. You know how US citizens spit the dummy at the slightest suggestion that they might be in some sense "thick", so I struggle to avoid reaching that conclusion. But re-electing George W. Bush in a "first passed the post" election, swallowing the implausible lies justifying the Iraq occupation, and buying that creationist/intelligent design claptrap, this verdict on the nation as a whole is almost inescapable. Optimistic? Make that unrealistic. Top nation? You're having a laugh. You don’t become the world’s most hated nation without making a concerted effort.
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Kanagawa
"America" is not a nation, it is a continent. Since the United States is often so exquisite in choosing names for various groups and classes of people, it might behove them to realise how offensive their arrogation of the name America is to more or less everyone else on the continent.
Tom Perry, Singapore, Singapore
I agree with part of Steve M's (Tuscon, AZ) comment concerning maybe splitting up the poll into a 17-23 and 24 to 30 group. I have always been lumped into the "Baby Boomer" generation (1959 birthday), but the kids in my high school had NOTHING in common with the "hippy" generation. We were either politically conservative (Reagan Youth) or politically apathetic. I watched my own children and their friends develop dissimilar political and social viewpoints (they are now between 19 and 24 years old)- my oldest being the tail-end of the "Alternative" generation, and my youngest (and her friends) existing in much more of a social and political vaccum.
Steve F., Noblesville, IN
I should be highly intrigued to read Erwin's explanation for how the younger Americans (myself included) could be simultaneously the most opposed to the party in the White House, while still being too trusting of that same government. The simple explanation is that older generations have been through more wars than we have, and thus have a more jaundiced/experienced view of the situation in Iraq. I also recall seeing a study (can't find the link) that indicated my generation was the MOST likely to support Darwiniam evolution in the classroom.
My take? We're a generation that can feel the weight of past decisions on our shoulders, the ones who will have to foot the bill for massive government debt, overreach and unwise policy decisions that were made (in many cases) before we were even born. We desperately want to find a way out, some sort of hope that our lives can be as good as the ones our parents have had...
We're not having much luck.
Doug, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
The anomaly that these youngsters tend to support the Democratic party while being broadly conservative is perhaps also neatly explained by noting that the Napster generation is hardly likely to vote for a party so closely wedded to big business. Or a healthcare system run by big businesses. Given the chance, they'd probably vote for the repeal of copyright law, too....
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
After living in the US for more than twelve years - I agree the American are very optimistic. They are also very bright, ambitious, successful, and innovative. The "Win-Win" philosophy that Frank Covey portrayed from his many seminars and learning techniques were the springboard for many entrepreneurs. The "You Can Di It" approach to life has made me quite rich, where otherwise I would have hesitated if I had stayed in the UK...Happy 4th America!
Pat, FL, USA/ExPat,
Can Bhinsara from Delhi please clarify how this article demonstrates the author's racist imperialistic 'mindset'? I'm not seeing it.
James, Monteria, Colombia
First of all, Donny, I hope you're wrong. Surely it can't be 50%! Are there that many Americans who are blind to scientific evidence? I pray not (pun intended).
Now my comments.
The article stated: "Americans are a naturally optimistic nation; and the younger they are, the more hope they have: 31% of the underthirties even believe the chaotic occupation of Iraq has made the US safer."
I believe this is because young Americans are simply not paying attention to the facts. They hear what their parents and the government and the mass media tells them and they form their own conclusions based on their limited life experiences. But do they care enough to dig deeper, to get the raw data to support their conclusions? No. Of course not. They're too wrapped up with the latest on Paris Hilton and Brittany Spears and their favorite television shows.
This is a major problem that I, a third-generation American, see with my fellow citizens: apathy and a willingness to accept the easy answer.
Maria, Wickenburg, AZ
Americans are definetely an optimistic lot.
Why wouldn't they be? They work hard, take risks,
are not afraid of failure, seeing it as proof that
they tried. Americans are resilient, intelligent,
sharp and articulate, better educated and fed
than any people anywhere. They innovate,
create and invent more than others and are
willing to learn, always. Americans are freer,
expect more and demand more of themselves.
Success is seen as reward for hard work and
social mobility is the crux of equality. Americans
achieve and enjoy, and love to give. Americans
are the most generous people, giving the highest
percentage of income of any others. Why wouldn't
they be generous, happy and optimistic with all
that freedom, self-belief and succes?
Martine, Wellesly, Mass., USA
Wait 'til the now 20's generation gets a load of a 30% Social Security/Medicare payroll tax on their earnings! All of a sudden, it will be: cut the old folks' health care off at the age of 80, just like in France. No hip replacement, no heart bypass surgery, no transplants. No life-prolonging measures of any kind. Nationalized health care will come, but primarily to ration (cut-off) the expense. White/brown/yellow won't make any difference when they can't feed their kids. And they will remember who sold them the chimera of socialized medicine.
Doug Collman, Denver, Colorado, USA
thank you. I could not agree more. You have captured the true spirit of my generation here in America. I along with all of my peers have grown so weary of the vast misconceptions being printed throughout the UK and Europe over the past 4 years. Belive my I understand why. The current administration has been horribly out of touch with the realities of the world. Thankfully we only have a year left. Please know that I stand along with may youg people proud, optimistic and willing to make changes that count. Changes for the world, it's people and the enviornment.
H.Garrett, San Francisco, California, USA
Thankfully, 'intelligent design' seems to be recognized for what it is (prettied-up fundamentalism) by most young people I know.
Of course, you're never going to convince the 20-25% of the USA population that are evangelicals.
As for our youth's views on the Iraq war...I'm at a loss. I'm 25, and I thought the rest of my generation had this figured out. Sigh.
Marc, Pullman, WA
History has been known to repeat itself and "Generation Next" is only following the pattern laid out from the past. Their view of war may come from the theory that we can make a difference- much like the young boomers who idealized our presence in Vietnam. Today's youth accept homosexuality which surely stems from teachings of polite tolerance and keeping an ever politically correct attitude about other's differences. This attitude is not unlike the era of free love and anything goes from the 70's.
American's are generally a positive thinking group and I for one am glad that I will be sharing the future with an idealistic and naturally optimistic group of hopefuls. As long as we continue to communicate and listen to their views we should find a middle ground somewhere between the right and wrong of all of our opinions. God help us all to do just that!
Carmen, Tappahannock, United States / Virginia
yes the republicans are in a crisis. but this article fails to point out that so are the democrats. look at their numbers. it took bush years of being in office to get ratings that low and the democratic congress managed (depending on the poll )worse numbers in under 6 months!
the young are currently disenchanted with both parties (I know this first hand because I am among them).
as they say in sports this is still anyone's ballgame.
Marianne, Cincinnati, Ohio
Erwin, in case you are unware, half of the US population still believes the world was created in 6 days 6000-10,000 years ago. The religious far right and religion in general has made it very difficult for the scientific community here in the US. Don't forget that the Bush administration was also responsible for trying to censor climate scientists and their research on global warming. Its a battle against ignorance, but as you can see, there is hope in the younger generation which identifies much better with the Democratic party, HIllary Cllinton's party who by the way has been consistently very high in the polls even in the state of Texas where I live, which has been Republican for the past 30 years up until Hillary Clinton came along.
Donny Cavazos, Gregory, Texas, USA
Do you mean the european or non-european ones?
john fitzgerald, bristol, england
Younger Americans are optimistic because they are naive and have not yet fully experienced the reality of being responsible adults. The fact that they have been sheltered and coddled by their parents who have made their decisions for them makes them prime targets for government-controlled programs such as health care. We are moving (frighteningly) toward a religious-based government whose "morals" control our every move. Unfortunately, those "morals" are not very, uh, moral.
Carmen, Nashville,
We are the first generation to break out of PC myths. We are not anti-gay at all, but we see that sexual behavior is a choice. Many young gay men my age, 20, don't consider themselves part of the lifestyle. A good example is Tyler Whitney who is openly gay and working for Tom Tancredo. I have gay fraternity brothers out west working for Marilyn Musgrave. This is the type of flexibility that the older generation can't handle. We are fiercely independent and don't blindly follow the liberal gay agenda. Tom Beddingfield, another gay youth leader, helped pass Prop 22 in California and ban same-sex marriage. That is not "homophobic" as some claim. Today's youth are self-confident and self-assured enough to know that the pace of our lifestyle is not always the best for raising children.
Mark, Tulsa, OK
"Less white" in this context means "more genetic variation." As more mixed families exist, the more minority issues matter to a politician.
I wish the survey had split the groups into 17-22 and 23-29; the former rarely care about politics and are liable to simply agree with their parents. The latter are most likely the ones with the reasoned opinions or friends in the military.
Wouldn't it be nice if high schoolers in the U.S. were educated in these sort of issues - the financial realities of debt, welfare, health care, taxes, and so on - in addition to the religion/science debate? Then we would be able to tell whether or not those surveyed were simply regurgitating what they'd learned from their parents.
Steve M., Tucson, Arizona
To my mind, as one of those under-30s in the U.S., Andrew basically gets it correct, which is hardly unsurprising since he lives here. My peers and I are more pragmatic and want solutions that work - therefore, our healthcare system needs fixing, but Intelligent Design is the stuff we make fun of alongside Bush and Cheney. Being more supportive of the war may have something to do that many of the soldiers fighting, we know personally as friends and therefore the support may be more of a sign of support for people we know and not of leadership. Overall, I know most of family, co-workers, and friends are just counting down the days till Jan '09 when we get a new president.
John, Atlanta, GA, USA
The under thirty crowd are idealists. They have no concept of how the world actually works. The over thirties have enough experience to be jaded into cynicism and understand the political deals which have to be made to defend democracy and the Western way of life.
Don't worry. Idealism is eventually outgrown. Teenagers and twenty-somethings mature into thirty and forty-somethings in a matter of time.
Thomas, Atlanta, GA, USA
All of us out here pray that the next generation of United States citizens returns to idealism and commonsense values of the past. The Bush era has been a complete disaster for whole world with hope, faith and trust in the U.S. government ,falling to an all time low.
John , Lisbon, Portugal
What type of language is, "less white". The British imperial mindset which has caused these wars never goes away. How odd that this nation which created the world's first islamic state by partitioning India, is now so high winded and minded. Any what else could we expect from England other than such language. After all, the lie of the Aryan invasion of India and the caste system as being racist in origin. These are after all British concepts which it still is using even in this article. Abosolutely dispicable!
Bhinsara, Delhi, INDIA
Let's face it - wouldn't the fact the Iraq war is more popular among Americans under 30 than among those over 30 just show that younger Americans are more likely to believe what government officials tell them?
Likewies, I'm under the impression that "intelligent design", i.e. creationism in its new guise, appeals to younger Americans - or am I wrong?
Erwin, Hamburg, Germany
The time of Bush, Dick Cheney and Karl Rove have come to an end as this article makes plausible. The narrowmindedness of the Bush administration was and is incredible. Nice to see there is hope!
Horst Gaul, Hamburg, Germany