Andrew Sullivan
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Campaigns can be messy things. Last Tuesday, in a non-descript hotel room in Washington, Barack Obama’s microphone wasn’t working. It gave out a low, yet ear-splitting drone that never quite went away. Cameramen at the back of the room kept yelling at young, overwhelmed staffers to get out of their sightlines.
And Obama’s speech itself – on tax policy – was read from the Autocue as if he were reading it for the first time, stumbling over even the name of his wife. The effortless grace of that spellbinding 2004 convention speech seemed from another era.
The exhilaration of his campaign announcement in the cold sparkling Illinois winter was over. And as he droned on about tax breaks for the working poor, I found myself more interested in the crowd than the speaker.
But as I left, it also occurred to me that I’d just been bored by a black politician on tax policy. In fact we all had. And yet such is the quiet transformation that Obama has already wrought on American politics that nobody even noticed.
The days in which African-American politics were defined by Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, or, even worse, Louis Farrakhan, are over. And as if to underline this achievement, Jack-son took the opportunity to condemn Obama the next day for “acting white” because he wasn’t articulating sufficient outrage at a recent civil rights controversy in the South.
The conventional wisdom about Obama is that his campaign is flailing before the relentless bulldozer of the Clinton machine. There is less to this, I’d say, than meets the eye. His campaign began with astonishing momentum – a bestselling book, media blitz, a sudden spurt in the polls, followed by a fundraising effort that beat the prodigious favourite, Hillary Clinton. Throughout 2006 and the first quarter of 2007, Obama’s national trend line in the polls was a relentless ascent, compared with Clinton’s ever-so-slight glide down. But some time this spring, he stalled and she rallied.
His support hasn’t slumped much since then; it has simply trodden water at about 20%. Clinton, in contrast, was at 38% in 2005, bottomed out at about 35% this spring and, after some superb debate performances, is now about 39%. Yes, she has twice the national polling of Obama. But in the key early races, the polling is much closer. Obama is clearly hoping that his deep pockets, very large donor base – a quarter of a million people have now donated to his campaign – and appeal to independents will keep him in the game long enough to pull off an early surprise.
Wishful thinking? The Obama campaign suspects Hillary is ahead because Hillary is ahead. She has global name recognition and deep loyalty among the most partisan and loyal Democrats. She is essentially using the same tactics that George W Bush did in 2000 – trying to amass so much money and so many endorsements that a reputation for inevitability leads to actual inevitability.
Obama, in contrast, is trying the John McCain strategy of 2000 – carve out a reputation for independence and leverage an early surprise into enough momentum to take down the frontrunner. Unlike McCain, a Republican candidate again for 2008, Obama has enough money to survive next January, and then some.
If fellow Democrat John Edwards drops out in the early stages, his 10% could go to Obama. If Obama seems a viable candidate in South Carolina, that primary’s substantial black vote could break at the last minute for the black man in the race. That’s the game plan anyway. It’s the only game plan that makes sense for an insurgent candidacy taking on an establishment favourite.
The war is the great variable. The past two weeks have led to a surprising dynamic. By backing a continuation of the surge, by declaring the strategy a success, and by killing even the most minimal attempt to restrain the president, the Republicans have wedded themselves indelibly to a war whose outcome they cannot control. McCain’s new slogan is “No surrender”, an atavistic framing of the complex debate about Iraq to appeal to the basest of Republican instincts.
It has served him well with his party’s base. Clinton and Obama, in contrast, have been issuing antiwar statements that are close to indistinguishable. Obama’s advantage is that, unlike Clinton, he opposed the war from the start. With the Democratic base incandescent with frustration at their congressional leadership’s inability to change the president’s policy, Obama has a chance to pick up support if the war turns sour again.
Under these conditions, you’d expect Clinton to be toning down the rhetoric and Obama ratcheting it up. But the opposite has happened. Clinton described Vice-President Dick Cheney last week as “Darth Vader” in front of a Democratic crowd. They loved it. Obama unveiled his first Iowa ad for Democratic activists that included this sentence: “In 20 years of public service, I’ve brought Democrats and Republicans together to solve problems that touch the lives of everyday people.” This message is not just for public consumption. In Democratic-only settings he often proudly cites his support from Republicans. In a polarised climate, where Rudy Giuliani is already lambasting Hillary and itching for a fight, Obama is sticking to a disciplined message of reconciliation, unity, responsibility.
Is this a mistake? Whoever won a Democratic primary by insisting on being open to Republicans? That is the risk Obama is taking. But when you observe and listen closely, you see this is what he actually means.
He detects an enormous weariness among Americans about their internal divisions in a time of war, overlaid by the anger and divisions that have deepened and widened under the Bush presidency. He suspects that if he can get past Clinton’s aura of inevitability, Democrats will realise he has a much better chance of winning a real national majority in the general election than Clinton does. Clinton polarises the way Bush polarises. She can hope for a Karl Rove-style 51% majority in a deeply divided country. He’s aiming for 55%.
Clinton, in other words, represents payback for the Democrats and liberals after the Bush era, just as Giuliani is emerging as the inheritor of the Bush legacy of divide and rule. Right now, Obama remains to the side, offering Americans something else: not payback, but a new page.
Neither black nor white, neither atheist nor born-again, a candidate who favours withdrawal from Iraq but an offensive against Al-Qaeda in Pakistan, a progressive offering the working poor a tax cut, his bet is that, in the end, America wants to come together again. The unanswerable question is whether America really does.
Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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Overwhelmingly Obama. I hope it transforms our country.
Dale, Michigan, United States
I am shamed to say that yes, America as a nation is just too dumb and uneducated to actually realize when they have a true leader right smack in front of them, that at this late stage in the 'de-construction of America, a candidate has emerged whose intelligence, judgement and vision are exactly what America needs to regain our footing and revitalize our vision. Senator Obama is THE candidate America has been hoping for. But MSM, brainwashing and the dumbing down of the public, have blinded them to this opportunity. I frankly give up all hope in the promise of America if Obama does not get the nomination. I won't even vote. Frankly, at long last, with this last hope gone, America will be dead. What countries will take us in, I wonder?
Deborah Phelan, Mill Valle, USA/CA
Andrew - Come On!!
What is politics about if not a hard fought contest of ideas and personalities. To assume that every issue if reconcilable, every policy has two equal sides and Americans are tired of polarization is naive.
Just Wait and see - Obama WONT win even one state - Bill Bradley redux
Abass Bundu, NEW YORK, USA
Several months ago, former Sen. Gary Hart asked a simple question: if Hillary is so inevitable, why do 60 percent of Democrats want somebody else?
Obama is building the largest ground organization ever seen, and not only in the early states. His supporters buzz with enthusiasm while Hillary's seem largely comatose. He has an excellent chance of winning Iowa, which could easily propel victories in the other early states.
He has more money than Hillary, and thus is the only candidate who can compete with her nationwide in the Feb. 5th primaries. He'll quickly inherit most of the supporters of those other candidates, and has significant crossover support that no other candidate can claim.
Fasten your seat belts. Obama and his supporters are set to shock the world.
Fonsia, Oceanside, USA/California
I have to say that Samuel Young has hit the nail right on the head: "I see parallels between Barack Obama and S. Royale here in France. There is less to both of them than meets the eye. Both illusions." Senator Obama never supported the Iraqi war, but he was not in the U.S. Senate at the time. So it is quite hypocritical of him to use that vote against Senator Clinton. We need someone in the White House who can and will stand up to the Right Wing. And we need someone with national experience. Third, we need someone who will make health care available to everyone -- not just the employed or middle/upper classes.
Frank Reynolds, New York, New York
The problem with Obama is hes just another big government liberal. Always has been, always will be. That's the Democrat party of this campaign. They want to turn government as the be all end all of all our lives. Nationalized health care is just their latest attempt to completely control every aspect of our lives from cradle to grave. In the Democrat party's belief there can to be no failures because big government will be there to make all your decisions for u. In this system there will be No failures but most critically No successes either. U will owe all to government. They want a socialist form of government like we see too often in Europe. As of yet none of them have explained how theyre going to pay for this massive increase in government spending. I dont care to see us go the way of Britains NHS and its legions of problems. Shortage of doctors, managed care, waiting in line for basic service. Thanks but no thanks.
Garry, Cburg, Va
I truly hope Hillary loses out in the end. This Country needs to be back on its feet and with seeing past experiences (ie. Bush, Clinton, Bush x2) WE DO NOT NEED THE PAST! We need someone new with new ideas that can get this Country back on track.
Mountain, FG, CO, USA/CO
I can't help but notice that polling thus far has been done by land line phone calls only. It's not taking into account the entire under 30 population. Living in NY, and/or visiting any urban area, I don't really know anyone who even HAS a land line any more! Does this seem strange to anyone else?
Peter Nevins, Brooklyn, NY
Fair and insightful analysis of the Democratic race thus far, thank you. The sheer fact that Andrew Sullivan, a conservative, views Obama with respect and some favor speaks volumes about the broad appeal and healing potential of an Obama Presidency. There will always be hateful individuals on both sides, but the majority in the middle simply want a competent government that will begin to restore faith abroad and at home. As for Obamaâs game, I think it is less about a game and more about authenticity â this is who he is and thatâs probably more than we could hope for.
ALH, Princeton, NJ
Perhaps it's for the best. I'm a staunch Obama supporter, but he probbly won't get the nom. The government lost my trust shortly after I was a high school student learning about how our "great" system is supposed to work. I learned how it's supposed to be while at the same time witnessing how it actually is. Lies and money replaced honor and duty, while all the while my countrymen were defrauded, their jobs given to cheaper foriegn labor and their rights slowly abolished.
So when Obama came along, it was like a breath of fresh air. I am on board entirely with his effort. Yet there is still that nagging feeling in the back of my mind, that the voting population isn't smart enough to do what's best for itself. I feel that no matter how great Obama could be, he may never overcome our own ignorance. Although looking at history, whoever takes over the Iraq mess may be plagued with a Carter style presidency. And that would end Obama's greatness, replacing it with a mundane legacy
Charles Kushner, Chicago, IL
Much as we democrats loved Bill Clinton, I, for one, am not ready to equate being married to a President with "experience." Also, the country is suffering from Bush fatigue. I have Clinton fatigue already, just thinking about having another one as President. We need new blood, and Obama is the answer.
Rebecca Lescaze, WASHINGTON, DC
It boils down this. Do you want a black Socialist, or a white Socialist. If either of these two got in with a working majority, Hugo Chavez would look like European Liberal. John 'goodhair' Edwards is only in the contest because he is a narcissistic wannabe.
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA Tx
lets see what happens in iowa. the younger obama crowd has the edge with the stamina to come early and stay late which is what it takes to win there.
stephen guy, seattle, wa
As someone who has followed Obama's career over the last 15 years, I must say that he is a man who does what he says. When he says we need a fundamental change in Washington, that is exactly what he means. I remember watching his interview on NBC before his announcement as a candidate for the Democratic nomination. He said that his aim was to run for the nomination, and still come out of the process intact, the same man with the same beliefs, regardless of the outcome.
Wtiness his refusal to participate in the political charade in the Senate the other day when the Senate put up an amendment condemning MoveOn.org. Obama rightly called it absurd and a waste of taxpayer dollars, and also more political gameplaying, and refused to be part of it.
The man is the real deal.
Juanito, Washington, DC
I agree with this article. I happen to be an Obama fan, but even disregarding that, I must say -- this clinton machine is almost undemocratic. We have a full platter of electable, even decent human beings running for office: Edwards, Bill Richardson, those are affable, intelligent guys. Obama breathes life into this country in the most unexpected way. But none of these candidates are getting their proper attention because it is all Clinton, Clinton, Clinton. A president, for all intents and purposes, who we've already had!!! I so wish Clinton was on par, poll-wise, with some of the other candidates so that we could have a real primary here. Instead we're merely going through the motions. We're enjoying a reflexive charade in response to 8 miserable years of Bush marginalization.
Drew, atlanta, ga
Edwards will never quit.
davidgriffen, Stockton , CA
Let's make believe it makes a difference whether we have a Democrat who has more lobbyist, PAC and 527 donations than even any Republican (that's Hillary, in case you're wondering) or whether we have a Democratic President who does not owe one dime to any of those big money interests. Let's make believe it makes it more likely to actually reduce the Pentagon budget, get fair health care policies, and stay out of future irrational wars with a President who isn't in all those lobbyists' pockets. Now, just pretending that might make a tiny bit of difference, who do you want to vote for?
VCubed, Alameda, CA
Too many Democrats are reacting to the symbolic idea of Hillary (as former beleagered first lady) rather than her style of leadership. Beware what you wish for. When the Clintons move into the White House where their private foibles, still in the same closet, again became public distractions, watch out for how dysfunctionality follows. Hillary shares much of Bush's stubborn closedness, arrogance, and assumption of royal ascendance. We don't need more fireworks and absolutism, we need healing. Obama may not have Hillary's slickly oiled machine, but he can heal, unite, lead, inspire, and act couragously.
Iris, Villanova, PA
I see parallels between Barack Obama and Segolène Royale here in France. There is less to both of them than meets the eye. Both illusions. It seems to me reading this article that American journalists, just like their French counterparts, are disconnected from reality. To any middle-class, "normal" person living here in France (i.e. kids at school, not reading the left-wing rags, etc.), it was obvious that S Royale never had any chance of winning. This was easy to see in Internet forums, but not in the mainstream press nor on the so-called expert panels on TV which are chosen for their political affiliations. Barack Obama has NO hope of becoming the Democratic Nominee. Ever. And. It's. Obvious.
So, make money, people: you can still get odds of 1.40 on H Clinton becoming the next Democratic Nominee. When i put on my bet just 3 weeks ago, i got 1.50. But still, a 40% return on a zero-risk investment is not bad at all. (OB is at 5.0 if you want to separate yourself from your cash)
Samuel Young, Paris, France
I heard Obama speak last week in Atlanta. He is truely an inspirational canidate that can break the gridlock and can't do anything Congress. I was extremely impressed with his intellect, common sense, humor, humility, dedication, passion, strength and charisma. If you want to finally be able to cast a vote for someone you can be proud of instead of choosing the lesser of two evil canidates then go hear Obama speak and check out his record. This is a decent and honorable man and thank God for sending a man of such quality at this perilous time in America. Obama is the right man for the right time. Obama 08.
sonya, atlanta, ga
Obamas big weakness is he is in the same pen of rabid dogs we have had to choose from for years to guard our children, Ron Paul is the only candidate on either side that truly stands for the average American, research him, draw your own conclusions, then, (I know this hurts), register Republican, and lets start to take this country back
Jim, Las Cruces, NM
well; well; well; I know everyone is entitle to their opion but I'm tired of Obama not good at policy, not good at any thing he says or comment on according to what some people potray him to be. Thanks to the media rolling all over hillary. Let's see what will happen when she win 2008, If she does, repulican will be out there. Even now some of the senator who are democratre worry about her winning. They know most of them will lost their has they say. Guess what now we think of girdluck in warshington. In four years that is when we will really exprience gridluck. Remember the bush presidency. How we think he will make a wonderful president voted for him. What does 60% or more American think of him now. God bless us all.
abu, florida, USA
Barack Obama really believes what he is saying in his speeches. Being from IL and watching him for 20 years I want your readers to know he actually does what you have stated so well. He works with others and he works hard. He believes in people and he actually listens to their stories. He actually knows how to get folks to cooperate--not perfectly but better than anyone else we've seen. He is brilliant. Your article sums him up well and also Ted Sorensen's interview with Charlies Rose/ Ted Sorensen does a remarkable job of describing why JFK was elected and how he used effective judgement. He then describes how Barack Obama is so similar and then goes on to endorse Obama. It is quite amazing to someone at my age of 68 who voted for JFK as a first time voter. Those of us who voted for JFK have waited along time to find that same excitement and energy in a campaign. There are many many of us who are supporting Obama.
SFT, Elgin, IL
who can make taxes interesting?
Jim, Miami,
This is a well put message and I like the end part...does Amerca really want to unite? "A house divided cannot stand".It takes more than a political party,more than partisan ideologies.It takes a leader and a people who are ready and value change.It takes a people who are responsible and are not complacent to the degeneration of it's ideals and standing in the world.America must be held to a high standard because she has chosen that path.There is much at stake.If only we will listen,look around us and apply simple wisdom.A stitch in time saves nine.
PK, ATL, US
The working poor in the US already get such large tax breaks that they are in fact net recipients of cash from the government.
How much more does Obama propose to give them?
That's his big weakness, all his policies proposals turn out to be more of the same things we're already doing.
JT, NYC, USA
I think many of us are tired of division politics.
It does none of us any good.
We need politicians who want to do the real business of we the people.
Will honesty win ?
It will if WE are honest.
If many of us continue seeking a winner versus honesty we all lose.
""People who own races horses try to own all the ponies in the race. That way they can't lose, while the masses in the stands losa at the hands of these owners""
For many many years thats is what the group Bilderberg has done and so we the people in the stands can't see the bigger picture and most of us get taken to the cleaners.
I am tired of being controlled and the only way we can win is to not play their game and elect a president who isn't controlled by the powers to be.
Danielle Clarke, Philadelphia, USA / Pa