Andrew Sullivan
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How do you solve a problem like Obama? I refer to the immense difficulty of running against him. Senator Hillary Clinton has found that out the hard way. She clearly assumed as recently as Christmas that it would be relatively easy.
And you can see why. She had all the party machinery, all the chits accumulated over two decades, the biggest brand name in Democratic politics, a former president actively campaigning for her, a majority of the black vote, the women’s vote, the Hispanic vote – and a set of policy positions that were almost identical to the black freshman senator with a funny name that sounds like Bin Laden.
Only last December she predicted it would all be over by February 5. And yet on every score she has been bested so thoroughly she barely knows even now what hit her. You should never count out the Clintons. It’s not over yet. But one thing we have all learnt this past year is that no one should underestimate the raw political talent of Barack Obama. Combine that talent with this moment in American history and it’s a very powerful force.
How should the Republican front-runner John McCain respond? Unlike Clinton he has had plenty of warning. And last week he tried out a few test runs. He insisted that he alone has the experience and training to be “ready on Day One” for the presidency in a time of war. He has mocked highfalu-tin rhetoric as no substitute for a long, detailed record on national security. And then, last Thursday, he went further. He tried to neutralise Obama’s biggest advantage: that he had been against the Iraq war while McCain had been for it.
“That’s history, that’s the past,” McCain told a crowd at Rice University in Texas. “That’s talking about what happened before. What we should be talking about is what we’re going to do now. And what we’re going to do now is continue this strategy which is succeeding in Iraq and we are carrying out the goals of the surge, the Iraqi military are taking over more responsibilities.”
It makes sense. The latest poll finds a small up-tick in optimism about progress in Iraq, with 48% of Americans now believing the military effort in Iraq is going well or fairly well, compared with 30% who felt the same way a year ago. But even as that number has risen, the proportion believing that the war was a mistake has stayed fixed at 54%. Americans are flexible but not stupid. Hence McCain’s attempt to change the subject.
He may well not succeed, and if the fragile Iraqi lull does not hold – and national political reconciliation seems as remote there as ever – he could come a cropper. Worse, McCain is stuck with a downside of possible Iraq success as well. Why? Because the more the surge is perceived as succeeding, the easier it will be for Obama to argue that the US can now withdraw. We won, right? Time to leave. Paradoxically, a success for the surge could remove McCain’s strongest card on national security by making withdrawal far less dangerous. President George W Bush and McCain have managed somehow to box themselves in: if the surge fails they lose, if it succeeds the public is more comfortable handing the reins to a young Democrat.
And attacking Obama directly carries risks. All the usual slime has been thrown already. The Clinton camp has tried it all, and has come up empty. And that’s with a large wedge of Democrats on the Clintons’ side.
If McCain tries gambits such as going for the Arabic-sounding name, or a tenuous association with the black firebrand Louis Farrakhan or conflation with Jesse Jackson, he runs a real risk of sounding racist in ways that will turn off critical white swing voters, and galvanise Democrats, especially the burgeoning younger vote, behind their man. And the bulk of the hardcore racists are all locked into solidly Republican states anyway.
For what it’s worth here is my advice for McCain. Don’t run on experience. It hasn’t worked with Clinton and it won’t work for him. In McCain’s case it speaks for itself. Why downplay this obvious asset? Because this is a “change” election. If the economy continues to tank, it’s going to be even more of a change election. Remember the Bill Clinton mantra in 1992? “Change versus more of the same.” It worked. And it will work even more this time, since the number of Americans believing that the country is on the wrong track is even higher than in 1992.
Moreover, the whole “experience” and “readiness” theme would reinforce McCain’s biggest liability in the obvious narrative of the 2008 election: the old versus the young. He will seem like an establishment figure whose time has gone.
What McCain has to do is to coopt Obama’s message. McCain has to become the change candidate. He has a record that makes this plausible enough. He has long been a rebel in Washington: he has tackled Republican rigidity on climate change, spending excess and the war. If anyone can be said to have forced a change in strategy in Iraq, it is McCain.
What he needs to do is to reiterate that he brought change once before to Iraq and can bring it again, by orches-trating a withdrawal that is as careful (to paraphrase Obama) as the invasion was careless. But he needs to broaden that message, adding diplomacy to his theme. He should embark on a world tour of allies in the spring, reassuring Americans and the world that he will reverse America’s not-so-glorious isolation. As a former prisoner of war he can credibly insist that he will change America’s interrogation and detention policies, and restore its moral standing. He should revisit David Cameron and other leaders to talk about climate change.
Obama’s weakness is on his left-wing economics. But McCain should not attack there either. He should propose a broadside on pork-barrel spending, a commitment to fiscal retrenchment, a reform of entitle-ments and a pledge to ratchet back the massive expansion of government under the Bush Republicans.
At some point McCain should also risk a fight with some of the uglier elements of the far right. The country is sick of figures such as Ann Coulter, the conservative columnist. A Republican version of the famous “Sister Soul-jah moment” in 1992, when Bill Clinton publicly took on an African-Ameri-can rapper for violent antipolice rhetoric, would signal a willingness to shake things up.
McCain has two tendencies: to react with prickly intransigence to criticism and to inspire others with the record of his own public service. Many of his fellow Republicans will urge him to savage Obama on his youth, inexperience and liberalism. If that is the strategy, McCain will implode. But if he can master his own volatile temperament and out-Obama Obama on change, he stands a real chance.
But it won’t be easy. Just ask Hillary.

Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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McCain's handlers are pushing this same advice on him at the moment. I understand the strategy; I'm not sure it's the right one, to paint himself as 'Obama Lite,' an easy-to-take alternative for those who just can't vote for Obama. McCain's best when he shoots straight; this doesn't sound like him
gb, Austin, USA
American made mistake in listening to Bush and voted for him. Now, I'm afraid the mistake could be made again and this time US will not a chance going up back again because US is getting weaker and weaker, while our competitors are stronger and stronger
Obama has no experience whatsoever as a decision-maker for a top executive job, he's just a good speaker and the yoputh are listening to him, like German youth were listening to Hitler
Duy Kyng, Rohnert Park, CA
You can't stop a train, Obama 08!
keisha, charlotte, nc,
Larkin G. Mead,
So, you think McCain's 100 years war will help the USA?
How much do you pay for gas, since invading Iraq? I used to pay $20 before the war, but now I am paying $100 a week!
McCain, a Commander-In-Chief to lead us?? What a joke!!
Obama 2008!
Eddie, Santa Cruz, ca
I think you are underestimating McCain's disadvantage against Obama. When it comes to change, where McCain is attractive, Obama is off the charts.
For example, McCain has earned a lot of respect from Democrats for being a maverick by challenging the Bush administration on Iraq and Gitmo. But in the past year, he's had to sell out and tow the party line in order to get the nomination. There is a ton of debate footage that show him trying to out-Bushie his opponents. He is going to get called on it fiercely if he tries to cast himself as a change candidate.
Meanwhile, Obama is being likened to Reagan by many Republicans and is in the final phases of slaying the Clinton establishment. By beating Clinton and snubbing her 'us against them' rhetoric', he gives Reps a way of leaving a party they've grown unhappy without the indignity of surrendering to their nemesis.
Obama's essentially creating a new party and inviting the disenfranchised majority. And that message is resonating.
Mokey, Redmond, WA
Grandpa John McCain has no hope nor chance. Obama is special and one in a generation man, people see that.
McCain who is so close to the Bush cabal can shout all he wants too about experience. But what matters is judegment and Obama has that. We will soon hear too how 'heroric' McCain was in the no doubt silly sean full steam that is going to be had.
Sen.Webb is a very good pick for Obama VP. They are the dream team.
SonnyL, Cleveland, OH, USA
When Ronald Regan entered the White House we were presented with a B Movie actor who had risen through the ranks of American political life by choosing wise and experienced advisors and listening to them, and his own politic gut feeling.
Obama is equally as wise. He may not know all the tricks or have all the solutions, but he has the men and women in his administration who do or who will provide them. What is more he has is the ability to inspire a new hope in the American people, that tomorrow will be a better day and that could just make him that special leader that the US and the West needs right now. After too many years of George W Bush and his disastrous administration, it's time for a Change.
Bruce Robinson, Plymouth, UK
McCain can't do anything for this country. Obama is a naive beginner. Only Hillary has the experience, intelligence and ability to change America for the better. Come on, people. Get real. Wake up from your daydream mentality and look at the facts. If you want the right kind of change and the right kind of country, then Hillary is very clearly the only choice. End of story.
john, seattle,
Interesting article! It appears that Andrew Sullivan has his finger on the campaign pulse.
The fact is, however, Barack Obama is an empty suit and his "rock-star" persona that is galvanizing so many young folks will at some point peak. This is not a high school pep rally; this campaign is for the soul of this nation and the election of 2008 will determine whether this nation becomes a Socialist State or will remain the most powerful Republic with democratic principles.
This is not a game. We have serious problems in the world of such a magnitude that we may well be teetering on the brink of World War III. Sabres are once again rattling in South America and the Middle-East. The world economies are on the brink of collapse, especially here in the United States.
If we are to survive, we need a steady hand, an experienced Commander-In-Chief to lead us. This is not Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. The hard core truth is, our last hope well may be Senator John McCain.
Larkin G. Mead, Woodstock, Illinois
Perhaps, Senator Obama is Divinely ordained to rescue this
GREAT country from itself. Because what he has accomplished thus far is nothing short of a miracle!
I wish him God's speed.
If it's ordained by GOD that he be
the next President of the United States, nothing can
stop him. Here is a richest country in the world, where there're tens of thousand of people earning ten million dollars and more annually, there are millions of Americans who cann't find job, millions are homeless, people are been thrown out of their houses by greedy lenders and greedy lawyers. States pass laws to give the poor and low income earners a break, the judges usurped the law, and give the greedy lenders the break instead.
The rich should be made to pay more taxes so that there will
be enough fund to take care of the needy and the poor.
To whom much is given, much is required!
Robert Gbobaniyi
West Haven, CT USA
Robert Gbobaniyi, West Haven, CT, USA
Sadly mistaken, the "present" vote is a part of Illinois state politics and cannot be understood as a "pass" vote. The phone will ring, the point is who has the judgement, that is who should answer. Obama has not had a honeymoon, Clinton is throwing everything she can at him, and the Republicans have already been whipping up the whispering campaigns for months now. There is simply nothing on the man, besides constitutional law professor, eight years in the fourth largest state legislature, passing bi-partison legislation on ethics reform and education. He has been equally energetic in the senate for the past two years, and before that as a community organizer for years. What more experience are you looking for? Failed healthcare? Failed judgement on the war in Iraq? Do you really want a 72-year-old in office who says that Americans don't care how long troops are in Iraq or that the rich need a "permanent tax cut" paid for (along with the war) by the working class? Oh yes, be my guest..
Jeff McNeill, Honolulu, HI
I agree with Sullivan's comments. I voted for Hillary Clinton and I will not vote for Obama even if he is elected as the Democratic candidate against Mc Cain. I would rather vote for someone I know, than an unknown.
The news media gave George Bush a free honeymoon through the elections, but afterwards, the marriage was a disaster.
I believe Obama is too inexperienced to be President. He votes "present" on issues which is basically a "maybe." He complains about the treatment of our soldiers in Afghanistan, yet he is on the committee to do something about it and doesn't. He complains about Hillary's 'fear mongering' video and says the red phone won't even ring when he's president. I hate to be the one to tell him, but when the red phone rings, it's to react to a crisis already in motion, it's not a vote.
If the American people want " change", they should vote for a woman, not a man. That's REAL change.
Agatha K, Yorba Linda, CA
Dear Americans,
Wish you folks very well. Read the following:
If you guys elect John McCain as President:
You guys will be forced into going far with Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan, Somalia and so on. McCain knows WAR, But, he doesn't know how you can making living in failing American economy. He doesn't care as long as he can get his morning toast and cup of coffee.
If you guys elect Hillary Clinton:
'God will never again bless America'. I don't want to say anything.
If you guys elect Barack Obama:
Do not expect too much from him. Because, Change doesn't GROW in White House. Change will happen when Americans realise 'minding their own business' and work hard
Uma Shankar, UK,
About Mccain's stand on torture, he has already flip floped. He was against torture in a 2005 bill, but on feb 13 2008 (after he was the clear front runner), he voted against a bill that will ban waterboarding, probably to apease his rights wing buddies with whom he was never popular. He also wants Gitmo closed, most rebublicans don't. He will have a problem winning the hardcore rightwings and still retain his "straight talk" centrist views of the past.
As much as Mccain wants to keep the election civil, there will still be some outside groups running smear ads of the worst intentions. How will he seperate himself from them? This last week he had to rebuke bill cunningham for his remarks making bill and rush limbaugh start a new barage, questioning John's conservative credentials.
There is no blueprint (yet) to run against this movement because if you have one, your services are greatly need by the Clinton and Mccain team.
Darrel, Winston Salem, NC
Yet again a class article, Andrew, and I fully agree. The troube is that the barn door is wide open and the horse has done a runner. Obama is a diamond in the rough, but he's very rapidly becoming polished. Very soon he will be a class political act, and it will take much more than McCain playing him at his own game to beat him. As other political commentators have observed, Obama is proving to be, above all, nimble and dexterous. His emerging genius is such that he has the capacity to simply reinvent himself as and when the need arises. Moreover change is virtually synonymous with youth and there again McCain is at an obvious disadvantage.
Simon, London, UK
Obama inspires me. He has a geniune sincerity and I know there will be huge change when he is in offie. The republicans don't offer anything to me, they offer nothing but fear and scaring people. They won't fool me again.
Kelly Pierce, Kansas City, KS, USA