His calm is almost unnatural. I’ve been following Barack Obama closely now for two years and I’ve never seen him or even heard of him losing his temper. The worst I’ve seen was a little irritation at a fund-raiser a year and a half ago where some volunteers backstage were making so much noise that he couldn’t think straight. There was a little edge in his voice as he asked them to quieten down.
During some of the tensest moments in the primary campaign, he would sometimes go into a hotel room alone for a few minutes, compose himself and then come back out. Hillary Clinton cried in public. Bill Clinton got red in the face and made some borderline racist remarks. John McCain picked Sarah Palin, called Obama Britney Spears, suspended his campaign in the middle of a financial panic, unveiled a completely loopy mortgage bailout scheme on live television last week and explodes on cue like a microwaved bag of popcorn.
Obama? He lollops along with a calm smile and a physical fluency that is hard to mock or copy. If he were a boxer, he’d be the kind who keeps moving but hangs back. He waits for his opponents to take a swing, ducks and comes back into the game. He sticks to a game plan and rarely deviates. And he waits for his opponent to make an error. Watching his autumn fight with McCain reminds me of the Wile E Coyote and Road Runner cartoons. Every elaborate attempt to blow Obama up leaves his opponents with sooty faces and a trail of smoke rising from the tops of their heads.
Remember the Clintons? They assumed this young liberal black man from Chicago was unelectable. They assembled their massive armoury, cashed in their chits and awaited the victory parade. Obama quietly but ruthlessly followed a stealth caucus and primary campaign that brilliantly leveraged Hillary’s inevitability against her. He made the first potential woman president look like the past. By the beginning of March, she was toast, although it took her a few more months to come to terms with it.
McCain never seemed to learn from the Clintons’ misjudgment of their rival. A key element of Obama’s strategy is classic rope-a-dope. He gets his opponents to splutter with irritation as “that one”, as McCain contemptuously described Obama in last Tuesday’s debate, glides towards them in the polls. He does his thing, raises masses of money, keeps his staff in perfect order and focuses on issues and themes. He can segue from the inspirational agent of change of the spring to the reassuring conventional pol of the autumn without anyone really noticing the seams. That takes political skill. You’ve either got it or you haven’t.
Obama rarely directly attacks. He subtly baits. His most brilliant rope-a-dope of the entire campaign was against Bill Clinton in the spring. In a newspaper interview, Obama cited Ronald Reagan as the last transformational president. He didn’t mention Clinton. The former president was offended by being implicitly dissed, took the bait and unleashed a series of unwise public scoffs at the young Democrat, culminating in a dismissal of Obama as another Jesse Jackson. Suddenly, black Democrats abandoned Clinton’s wife, and the Clintons’ base collapsed. Obama merely stepped out of the way as the Clintons self-destructed. He didn’t just end their campaign; he helped to bury their reputation.
And that’s exactly how Obama has handled McCain. Instead of attacking him frontally, he got in his head and provoked him into error. It’s easier with McCain than with the Clintons, because McCain is more volatile and more easily provoked. And so Obama cruised through August, picking a conventional running mate and punching his foreign-policy-credentials card with trips to Iraq and Europe. McCain’s response? He put out an ad equating the son of a poor single mother who made it to become president of the Harvard Law Review, a University of Chicago professor and the first black nominee for president with . . . Paris Hilton, whose only accomplishments are being born into immense wealth and making an internet porn tape.
When that didn’t work, and an unfazed Obama ran a flawless convention, calmed the Clintons and delivered one of the best acceptance speeches in modern times, McCain blew himself up with the Palin pick. His one sure-fire advantage – experience – was thrown away. His real base – independent voters and the media – was first wowed and then woke up. And as Palin became a national and international joke, as her ratings plummeted and as she lost her debate to Joe Biden (quite hard to do, given Biden’s capacity for verbal diarrhoea), McCain got even crankier and more unstable.
Then the financial crisis hit and a desperate McCain decided to seize the moment. Again, Obama did little but stay calm.
McCain made a huge splash of “suspending” his campaign and rushed back to Washing-ton to talk his own party into backing the bailout. It refused, the bailout sank for a week and McCain’s campaign was just as suddenly unsuspended. He had to crawl back and agree to have the first debate as planned. Wile E Coyote blew himself up again. Meanwhile, Obama purred “beep, beep” and raced down the home stretch.
So last week McCain tried one more thing. He went 100% negative on his television ads, and day after day accused Obama of being someone who had a “secret”, who, in Palin’s words to overwhelmingly white crowds, “doesn’t see the world the way you and I do”, who “palled around with terrorists” and whose middle name – repeated at almost every Palin rally – was Hussein. Yes, they’re now playing the fear card: fear of the unknown, fear of black people, fear of Arab-sounding names, fear of terrorism, fear of Islam.
Obama has not been a saint. He resurrected the long-buried Keating Five scandal that tainted McCain in the 1980s. He has used language that resonates with the notion that McCain is senile: “erratic”, “uncertain”. He has played a little class warfare. But nothing too dramatic, nothing too angry, nothing too risky. The polling around the country is now more emphatically Democratic than ever before. Obama is now ahead in every battleground state and, by most estimates, could lose all the currently close states and still win the election.
And still he’s calm. Not too cocky. A little aloof, but very professional. He learnt all of this as a black man in a white country: no sudden moves; no anger. That’s how he managed his white mother in adolescence. That’s how he manages a white electorate increasingly at ease with him. And, by a massive stroke of luck, that’s what voters want now. In an economy that is melting down, with two wars still raging, they want calm above everything else. They want to know that the man in charge will not panic, will not be flustered, will not blow up.
They need a Valium. They can now vote for one for president.
Mr. Sullivan,
As an American Voter (who will vote), Obama is a very nice well spoken leader for the DP but McCane is the person running for president I am voting for -- the reason to vote for McCane in my eyes is the total mess of the economy that has to "fixed" and number of problems still left.
john, austin, usa
Mr. Sullivan,
I'm an Independent. Observing Obama from the clarity of non-ideology, it's refreshing to see the ladder of progression; but a bit concerned when folks begin to overly praise him. I share your admiration, with a bit of cynicism and caution, not towards him, but voters. We'll see...
JM Guthrie, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
P.S., Mr. Sullivan, this article was almost as lovely as your heated, passionate harangue on Real Time with Bill Maher a couple of weeks ago.
Obviously a fantastic television programme.
Eric, California, US
Everybody is spot on! So few Americans understand the actual tenets of socialism that it's frightening.
What's worse, though, is the fact that even fewer people know what a 'mixed economy' is. They deride public projects, yet drive on the roads, attend the schools, and eat subsidized farm products
Eric, California, US
JohnW: Tony Blair did not give power to the "left" He admired Margaret Thatcher and follwed her, right wing, ideas. Would a real "left winger" have sold out on education? Never! Blair stole the clothing of the right. He did it well, but he was wrong to do so! To the real left, he was, simply, Judas.
Marc, Paris, France
good article - in this campaign, there has been much talk about personality, character and experience but there's been little focus on the campaign strategy.
This is the most telling quality of a candidate and a excellent predictor of our they will perform as president.
Todd Armstrong, san carlos, USA
I remember Margaret Thatcher marking out Tony Blair as a future Labour leader and possible PM way back in the early 90s. Britain loved him in 1997. Look at his record now - hated by everyone, especially the left, whom he delivered to power after being unelectable for 18 years.
How times change
JohnW, Manchester, UK
Many Americans understand socialism just fine and still loathe it; what an incredibly backward assumption that if one dislikes something they simply must not "get it." I'm relieved Obama's pulling ahead, but the poor economy is the primary cause for his lead; not any super smart strategy on his part
Juan, Miami, USA
I wouldn't jump on the 'Obama Train' if it were the only way out of a city on fire. The 'Obama Messiah' mentality is the most frightening political development in the last 50 years. I wouldn't care if he were purple with green polka dots. He has a hidden agenda that will doom the United States.
SGA, Tampa , USA
"Managed his white mother in adolescence?" During most of Obama's adolescence he lived with his white grandparents in Hawaii, where he went to school. He doesn't refer to managing them in his book, but relates he came to appreciate more and more what they were doing for him. Still, a good article
Christine Graf, St. Paul, U.S.
I still think the greatest thing Obama has going for him is the distinct possibility of President Palin, if McCain were elected and his health gave up. I'd be amazed if McCain doesn't already see his VP choice as the moment he probably lost his one shot at the Presidency.
Bryan Bailie, Newtownards, Northern Ireland
Nearly five years ago I predicted Obama was someone to be watched as regards the presidency after he had made some waves as Senator of Illinois....I was rubbished then and ridiculed by my peers....three more weeks ought to vindicate me and I will go back onto the forum and gloat! A blanced article.
D Turner, Essex, UK
john in ireland; sullivan is english. ad the article is spot on.
tomo, new york, usa
The best outcome for all would have been an Obama/Clinton ticket although I have fears for a black president in America! It would have brought a new dawn to social injustices and made the US more outward looking after the parnoah of 9/11
The new world order is ripe for a radical change such as this
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
Hillary Clinton and John McCain made the same error - they assumed the media would report on the good, bad, ugly and questionable. With Obama only the good was reported.
They both needed a full-time "Who is Obama?" education program showing the not good.
If it would have been done McCain would win.
Robert Flink, Berlin , Germany
Andrew, I really enjoyed reading your article. Your analysis was spot on and at times quite humorous with its rope-a-dope and road runner analogies, both of which were quite appropriate I might add.
Jezreel, New York, USA
Obama is half-white and half-black. He is of both races, but was raised entirely by white people of European descent. He even seems to relate better to "white liberals" than to the average black or white voter. Why is this never mentioned in the media, US or otherwise? Just curious-any thoughts?
Mary, Suwanee, US
Barack Obama 'Floats Like a Butterfly, and Stings Like A Bee.' As with Muhammad Ali, no one expects him to do the impossible, but he always does. So, when we look back on this moment in our history we will come to realize that he was truly The Greatest...
DeWayne, New York, United States
Source of the sub-prime mess was Clinton in 92. He elected a socialist to get the poor to be able to afford housing when they obviously couldn't. She started to look at discrimination by lenders - had no luck but began to use the threat of litigation on other agendas.
They caved in, hence the mess.
Phil, Preston,
A well written article, makes a fresh reading compared to all the other articles about the global financial crisis.
The analysis was spot on.
Niyi, Essex, UK
I have to say it: I wish someone in the press would broach the topic of McCain's nascent senility. I can't get the idea out of my head after watching him debate... I don't like his politics to start with, but I am beginning to wonder about his mental condition, in all seriousness.
Marek, St. Petersburg, Russia
"That’s how he managed his white mother in adolescence."
The most ridiculolous line I have ever read! Please elaborate. My understanding is his own mother the evil whitey wanted to oppress him and he had to manage her "natural" dislike of blacks.He's mixed race. Can we please try and treat him so.
tom madiraju, Grimsby, England
Ashleigh, Santa Cruz, do you even know the meaning of socialism ? Do you know that Western Europe practices certain degree of socialism and people have a life style ordinary Americans can only dream of : social housing, medical coverage, unemployment benefits etc. ? All while living in a democratic?
John Taylor, London,
stephen, china, china:
For the record, Andrew Sullivan is American. Typical, huh.
John, Cleggan, Ireland
Great write up from Mr. Sullivan. If Obama were a chess player he would be very adept with his knight i think. Sarah Palin would sacrifice lots of pawns and expose her base. McCain would have no game plan and would improvise all the way. Joe Biden would prefer to launch an early attack at your king.
henry monono, Limbe,, Cameroon
Jonathan
The analogy with Java is only partially correct. When I lived there, I admired Indonesians' outward composure. They made Westerners look daft. But don't mistake that for lack of emotion, viz, the 4million Chinese killed in Indonesia under Sukarno.
Kate, Vienna,
brilliant article. spot on analysis. typical that it needs a brit to say what's really going on!!
stephen, china, china
Maybe its a case of
"If you can keep your head whilst all others are losing theirs, then you have obviously failed to grasp the seriousness of the situation!"
Pete, St Albans, England
Sadly Peter from Dublin is not that far off. Socialism in theory and practice is such a foreign concept to the American public it is alarming. It does not help that you have a President who ran his campaign and then his administration as if guns and Jesus were the two remaining branches of gov't.
Matt, Minneapolis, United States
I just read Obama's book, "Dreams of my father", and I come away with the impression that this man was born with the gift of calm and self reliance. The unique circumstances of his further crafted his ability to make people comfortable, but his desire to give himself to America is extraordinary.
beth, St. Charles, MO, USA
Obama is so cool and collected he will bury John McCain and the pitiful 30 percent who still support Bush. REst in peace.
jen hutchin, phoenix az, USA
Nobody has nailed the dynamics of this election as this article does. It is required reading for anybody in politics. The Road Runner/W Cyote metaphor is perfect.
Carlyn , Chicago, USA
Andrew - a good summary of your last God-knows how many weeks of blogs at The Dish. The current US Presidential election is a bit like a UK soap opera - incredulous heroes, twisting plots and rotten scoundrels about to leave the programme. McCain is toast. Obama 08.
David, Munich, Germany
"...resonates with the notion that McCain is senile: “erratic”, “uncertain”. "
I don't think MOST people would agree with you. I know I don't. 1. Having no fixed or regular course; wandering.
2. Lacking consistency, regularity, or uniformity. 3. Deviating from the customary course in conduct
Terre, Sandy, OR, USA
Peter c, because FDR died just as he was about to launch it, the Dems just Congress in 1946 just as they were about to vote on it, and the health care lobby over the years took care of the rest. So we're stuck with this pig in a poke that will be very expensive to reform, but is bankrupting us.
DBX, Chicago, USA
Mr. Sullivan, as usual, is interesting, a little blustery, but insightful. He zeroes in on Obama's great strength - his inner rationality. He thinks, not feels, his way through things. This will be a relief and welcome alternative to the unthinking, unblinking regime of the last eight years.
PatricktheRogue, Yokohama, Japan
I may be naive but I never thought Obama wanted to provoke the Clintons; he just wanted to appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. He knew if he won with white states the blacks would follow. The fact that the Clintons imploded was just bonus.... however, I do believe he is baiting McCain
Matt, San Carlos, CA, USA
Peter in Dublin is right. Most Americans do not have any idea what "Socialism" is...they just blurt it out in a knee-jerk response to anything proposed that has the hint of governmental involvement, for good or ill. Guess what fellow Americans..it is already happening!
Chuck, San Antonio, TX, USA
Peter of Dublin, our public discourse has been twisted and words like Socialistic turned into tnt by the rightwing to manipulate the masses. it help that the right has made ignorance something to be proud of.
Hopefully with an intelligent Obama, that will begin to turn a different way .
vwcat, machesney park, usa
I haven't been afraid of socialism since 1989 (if not before). Let's just do what works. Privatized firefighting - not so great, let's socialize that! Ok, we did that over 200 years ago. In other areas, the private sector does far better. Use common sense, not ideology.
Jeff Spindler, Ann Arbor, USA
Andrew, just wanted to thank you for giving me great pleasure in your writings over the last few months. We're under a month away from Obama taking this election and the people taking this country back. Missouri is turning blue, it's great to see.
Sam, Saint Louis, MO
Great article and analysis as usual. I love the Obama as valium metaphor, especially since my mom was a fan of taking 1/2 a valium when my brother and I were driving her insane as kids growing up.
Dory E., Phoenix, AZ, USA
@Peter from Dublin,
Some of us do know what "socialistic" is. And while its true most Americans don't really know what it is, they are propagandized from day one to fear it. Most, however, desperately want a system like the NHS and strengthened public education. It's those in power who oppose it.
Dr. Paul Proteus, California, USA
Nice piece, Sullivan. The biggest power of the Obama candidacy is the thing least reported on, the ground game. While BO maintains his cool at the top, down here at the bottom, in the most conservative parts of the USA, people are seizing the process. The Republicans are in for a big surprise.
Jeff In Ohio, Cincinnati, USA
As usual, you're on the mark Andrew. His calmness, almost eery, is infectious. That bodes well for the future of America.
Scott McDaniel, Jasper, GA, USA
A very well written article.
I have a small complaint though, relating to anachronistic mention of Palin's debate with Biden. The financial crisis was in full flow since the beginning of the week McCain and Obama had their first debate. The VP debate came the following week.
Sunny, Michigan, USA
We need intelligence and competence after 8 years of Bush in the White House. Obama will be a great US president for this time in our history.
Yes we can heal this nation.
Obama/Biden '08
shanon, prescott,
I have to agree, 'erratic' is no longer a subjective charactarization of McCain's campaign, it is objective. So if McCain can (validly) claim Obama is less experienced, Obama can claim McCain has been 'erratic' lately, particularly in regard to the financial crisis.
Ian, Pasadena, CA,
Barack's calm gives us the sense that "we will be okay". You see that even in the photos taken with him and children on the campaign trail. They feel comfortable with him. Our children tell us alot without saying a word.
Barb, Austin,TX, USA
Sullivan shows once again why he's the best commentator on the election bar none. This was great.
David J. Williams, Washington, DC, USA
I want intelligence in my president this time, not someone just like me. I'd not know how to fix all the issues facing our nation. Only one man running for president has the brains to surround himself with the best minds in America to repair the damage of the 8 Bush years: Barack Obama is that man.
Sharyn Tanner, Indian Rocks Beach, FL, USA
Repubs called FDR a Socialist when he saved us from a collapse caused by unbridled Capitalism. Now that Obama is trying to do the same, same argument.
Huh. Either they were wrong, or Socialism isn't evil! I think people here don't realize Socialism doesn't mean dictators. Europe seems free to me!
Jon, Gilroy, California, USA
I'm an American who lived in Denmark at the age of 17. I saw a Democratic "socialist" nation in which people were healthy, happy, educated, and secure. People in America immediately think of communism when they hear the word socialism. And our politicians are quite happy to keep 'em ignorant.
OregonGirl, Portland, USA
I'm sure Ashleigh from Santa Cruz will be happy to give up her Social Security benefits, being as she has no desire to live in a 'socialistic' nation.
Mark T, Bryson City,
"Obama purred “beep, beep”
Purred what? How on earth did that slip through?!? Getting images of Tweety-Sylvester genetic blends...
Great article though.
Andrew, brisbane, Australia
Obama may indeed have learned his calm "as a black man in a white country," . But I think he may have learned it first as a boy in Java. There a clam and unflappable demeanor, especially when provoked, especially under stress is the sign of a charismatic and civilized person. Anger is for losers.
Peter Just, Williamstown, Mass., USA
But McCain IS erratic and uncertain, and I don't want him to have access to the nuclear codes. That said, he deserves an Emmy for best dramatic performance for that campaign suspension grandstanding stunt he pulled.
Jonathan, Arlington, MA, United States
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
As bad or worse, we have executions and the biggest prison population in the world. 3% of the population of the world but 25% of the prisoners. If we can defeat the far right that has just cratered the world economy, there is hope things will get better.
Kathy , Boston , USA
Kevin - a long time ago I lived in West Lafayette. I'm delighed to see that Indiana is now a swing state. When I was there it was all Republicans all the time, with a lot of racism. I'm thrilled to see the great changes that have happened. It's really good news.
Thanks! Kathy
Kathy , Boston , USA
It's more than just how calm he is. Although. man, are you right about how good that calm is right now. But under the calm demeanor and reasonable manner is an intense intellect, well-read and actively engaged, and a willingness to listen to all the notes in the symphony. He has earned my vote.
irene, Westport Pt, USA
In America, 'socialist' is just a code word that the extreme right uses to try to demonize the left. I doubt many people really know what socialism is. At last the tide is turning and Americans are finally rejecting this kind of divisive ideological warfare in favor of pragmatism and competence
Steve, Takoma Park MD, USA
<i>I am sick and tired of hearing Americans talking like this. Do any of them know what "socialistic" is?</i>
No - It is what they are told on a daily basis on the radio and the TV, so it must be true. Heaven forbid they pick up a book or newspaper and think for themselves.
Welcome to America!
DJ, Pittsburgh, United States
well said I will not be able to see them together again at Wednesdays debate without seeing the road runner cartoon.
wendy woods, Stillwater mn, usa
To be fair, McCain has LITERALLY been acting erratic and ungrounded the last month. He's changed positions and talking points more often than he changes socks. That's hardly an attack that falls under the "bad" categorie - in fact, it's just pointing out an objective fact.
John, Chicago,
Obama had to throw some red meat out there like the Keating 5 to keep the Democratic partisans happy, keep McCain in check and ensure that the media didn't think he was going to passively sit and get swift-boated like Kerry. He's used his nastiness wisely.
Tom, Columbus, USA
"If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant."
Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"
Patrick Quigley, Irvine, USA
McCain tries to say Obama is an unknown quantity. Unfortunately this is the same mistake Hillary made at the end of the primaries. The nation has been infatuated with his story, in either disdain or awe, for the better part of two years now. He is very much so well known and most have made up minds.
Kevin, West Lafayettte, Indiana, USA
I simply do not understand why America does not have a National Health Service like every other civilised country in the world. maybe the word "civilised" contains the answer Lord knows they provide one and free food and clothes and a whole lot else for their soldiers.
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
"I have no desire to live in a socialistic nation."
I am sick and tired of hearing Americans talking like this. Do any of them know what "socialistic" is?
It seems to me that many Americans would rather have Jesus and a rifle than a job, a sound ecomony and healthcare.
Peter, Dublin, Ireland
More American brainwashing on display. The word "socialistic" is meaningless in America. It's the latest code word for biggubment now that communism is dead. Well, guess what, you've already got the most socialistic gubment you've ever had. Why not grow up?
Paul Joseph, London, UK
McCain has a trail of stink behind him and has been a Washington "outsider" simply because he ticked off Reagan at the height of Reagan's popularity. He was pushed outside. Now, he hunkered down with Bush and got back in, but Johnny backed the wrong horse and can't get his foot in the door.
Cubby Bryant, Detroit, USA
I won't be voting for Obama. I have no desire to live in a socialistic nation. I have no desire to jump on the "Obama is the messiah" bandwagon. I don't faint at the sight of him, don't chant and sway while singing his name, and feel only dread at the though of him being President. God forbid.
Ashleigh, Santa Cruz,
Not Valium but wisdom. Those that have it, make it look easy, Obama is a man blessed by God, and I think a gift from our Lord to help the healing between black and white, Christian, Jew and Mulsim, conservative and liberal, rich and poor. God bless America, I can say it again, and mean it !
oregon dad, Newberg OR, usa
Great summary and insight especially how he baited President Clinton.. I never thought of that.
Dan , Sherman Oaks, United States