Andrew Sullivan
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To talk to Democrats these days is to witness a strange mix of enormous anticipated relief and near nervous collapse. They haven’t cared about an election this much for a long time. They went through the interminable agony of 2000 and then the crushing whiplash of election day in 2004, when they thought they’d won and realised, as the night went on, that they’d lost.
To put it bluntly: they simply cannot believe the polls right now. The numbers are too good for a Democrat running for the presidency from scratch. They just don’t feel right. A clear lead for a nonincumbent black guy from Chicago against a war hero and a Barbie doll? Shurely shome mishtake. But in fact there is no obvious mishtake.
The cold reality measured as these things have been measured in the past is undeniable. If you put every poll into the blender, if you include all the psepho-logical data and run the model as many times as you can, the statistical likelihood of Barack Obama winning the election, if it were held today, is well over 90%.
And that’s deeply unnerving. There is, in fact, very little recent precedent for such a comfortable victory. The last Democrat who won the White House as a nonincumbent was Bill Clinton, and he ran in a strange three-way race in 1992 and won only 43% of the vote, which is roughly what John McCain is getting now. Jimmy Carter was the last one before that, and his margin of victory in 1976 was 2%, in the wake of Watergate. Lyndon Johnson inherited the office from a martyred Kennedy, and Kennedy won it by a mere sliver in 1960. So the idea that a nonincumbent Democrat could win the White House by a landslide is indeed strange. It hasn’t happened in my lifetime. In fact, it hasn’t happened since Franklin D Roosevelt.
So are we dreaming? Experience suggests that the race will indeed tighten. The Bradley effect named after a black candidate for California governor who was ahead in the polls but lost implies that many voters simply lie to pollsters when it comes to black candidates because they don’t want to appear racist (even if they’re not). There’s a great deal of academic debate about this, but it would not surprise me at all if older white voters in Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri and western Pennsylvania lurched towards the old white guy at the very end of the race.
The mood among some of the attendees at Sarah Palin rallies is indeed reminiscent of the angry crowds that once followed the segregationist George Wallace. And Palin’s own attempts to label Obama as an alien, a friend of terrorists and a traitor to his own country have been as ugly as they have been crude. “It sure would be nice if, just once, Barack Obama said he wants America to win,” she declared last week. Just because it’s disgusting doesn’t mean it can’t work.
At the same time, it seems to me possible that the gap between Obama and McCain could grow some more. Here’s why. The fury at the economic crisis is deep and wide, but there is nothing the Republicans can do to stop the tsunami of discontent. Older Americans who lean Republican have seen their retirement savings go up in smoke in a month. Although both parties were involved in the deregulation of banking, the Republicans have been in charge for much of recent history. It feels like the Tories in 1997 all over again.
Obama has almost twice the financial resources of McCain, because of his astonishing money machine. By every reasonable measure, he won all three head-to-head debates. McCain’s running mate is a national joke who cannot even hold a press conference, let alone run a country in a pinch. And the polls tend to miss a lot of voters who have swapped land lines for mobile phones. These people disproportionately young and often minority skew towards Obama. None of this is good news for McCain.
Two further, critical concerns lie behind the possibility of a bigger win. The first is race again. Americans are so used to fearing racism that they may have missed the positive power of a nonwhite candidate. Obama is doing very well with Latinos, and new black-voter registrations have soared. Take Georgia, a state McCain will almost certainly win easily. The number of eligible first-time voters has gone up by 9% since 2004. But within that number there’s been a 27% increase in new voter registration for African-Americans, and a 13.7% decrease for whites. Now replay that in much more promising states for Obama, such as Virginia and North Carolina, and you see why he’s favoured to win in both. Race may depress the white vote for Obama in some areas. But it may significantly increase his vote in others.
But the principal reason to bet on Obama is organisation. His primary campaign was brilliant, not just because his message was so powerful: it was because he worked out how to make the machinery of politics work for him. He mastered the art of the caucus; he used the internet as a way to find voters and then got them to the primaries and caucuses. He beat the Clintons largely because he out-hustled them on the ground.
Remember 2004? The reason Karl Rove and George Bush won, despite losing in many polls, was because they found and organised a new bloc of white, evangelical voters and brought them to the ballot box. This time, it’s Obama who has found the new voters under the radar: the young, the disengaged, various minorities and a large phalanx of middle-class white Americans. Of all the unprecedented money he has raised, he has poured an equally unprecedented amount into his ground game. Staff and volunteers are right now working phones relentlessly, walking streets, knocking on doors, constructing peer-to-peer networks and focusing almost mani-cally on turning out their voters on election day and before. Obama has even managed to insert ads for early voting into video games.
Voting has already begun in many states, by postal vote and old-fashioned ballot boxes. The candidate who has the superior organisation will add at least a couple of points to his eventual margin. I know of no objective observer who doesn’t believe that Obama’s ground game is much, much better than McCain’s right now.
Of course, the wonder of democracy is that we won’t know anything for sure until November 4. Obama weakened towards the end of his epic battle with the Clintons; he may weaken again. The smears may stick. The unease may grow. The fear of the new may eclipse the horror of the recent past.
But in the end, with two weeks to go, you can only really go by the polls. They point to somewhere between a Kennedy-style squeaker for Obama and an FDR-style landslide. Yes, this could be 1932 again.
Andrew Sullivan is an author, academic and journalist. He holds a PhD from Harvard in political science, and is a former editor of The New Republic. His 1995 book, Virtually Normal: An Argument About Homosexuality, became one of the best-selling books on gay rights. He has been a regular columnist for The Sunday Times since the 1990s, and also writes for Time and other publications.
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IF Obama wins, God help this country. Democrats will have full power. We will become a socialist soceity. Sad, sad, sad. I served this country and to see what it has become. I worry about my childrens future. Sure it was bleak with the politicians we have in now. Now what!
Bill, USA, USA
McCain will win. The young vote is not showing up.They will continue to feel that their 1 vote won't mean anything.They will however, tell their friends that they did indeed vote for Obama.Youthful ideas haven't changed .
Wes, malverne ny, USA
It will never happen
pomoc, oceanside, USA
Sullivan,
You are dreaming if you think this race is over.
McCain is going to win, and you are never going to know how lucky you are that he did.
mark, delmar, United States
the election is not until next week , I don't think this great union is for sale for any amount of money, the god fearing,patriotic peoples of this great nation will not let that happen. Most of the people of this great nation love their country and will not sit idley by and let that happen.
suann barnes, smallville, usa
Oh dear - most of you are so out of touch as to what is happening in the US. the election is slipping from obama... he will not win by a landslide, in fact the momentum is in mccain's court. the polls have tightened tremendously. we will see what happens.
ann, la jolla, usa
Sadly these new voters don't know anything about politics, history, or economics. All of my friends are voting for him. Some of them couldn't even tell me the name of Obama's running mate when I asked them. Most can't even tell me the difference between a Republican and a Democrat.
John, Dearborn Heights, US
Obama will further divide the country. This sadly is about political correctness. Obama's message lacks substance, he has no experience and his National Security policy is naive. Unviersal Health Care will denegrate the quality of medicine Americans have come to know and expect. The US loses.
Kim , Taylor Mill, US
He may win but the USA looses
Darlee, Hillsdale, USA
Great article! Don't underestimate the young who's been overwhelmingly supporting Obama and will turn out to vote this time. Remember, although race is a factor in America, ageism is worse. You get more age discrimination in this country than race. The reason why Mccain will lose this election!
Ann, Pasadena,
It's certainly a nail-biter. It is the most important election of my life, and I just hope to heck they don't get it wrong. If McCain/Palin win, that will be that, for America and the western tradition. McCain just doesn't get that the world has changed utterly since he understood it.
Xan, Berlin,
Obama won't have won this election he will have been given it
by the Republicans, because they fielded two lightweight candidates. One is left wondering whether they wanted to win in the first place. Perhaps they saw this economic disaster coming long ago, and are bolting from it.
Peter , Reading, U.K.
I hope threats against Obama is taken very seriously...it is scary what forms Republicans take nowadays...the great John F Kennedy also was disliked by a rare few for his "inexperience" and religion and look at what happened to HIM...scary...
Coventina, Gastonia, NC,
Present reading shows that 20+ newspapers endorse Obama; 5 support McCain. Klein, Sullivan, Robinson, & other columnists indicate Obama winning easily & Krauthammer endorsing McCain. An Obama landslide clearly offers a mandate & sends Republicans into a big decline. Palin can now plan for 2012.
Michael Prosser, Shanghai, China
Experience? I distinctly remember a piece from a noteworthy news source stating how the newly elected Bush administration was perhaps the most experienced in history. Unfortunately as it turned out, they were also the most misguided and corrupt.
TobyB8, Las Vegas, US
Andrew, Read the Kennedy piece on election fraud in 2000, and 2004. Rove & Bush Found new Voters! Rubbish!
Always a Republican deep down.Truth Up to the Face
'get the picture'
Richard Irvine, Santa Barbara, usa
It's a shame you feel that way, Andrew
Mary, Nanuet, USA
Excellent article. Go Obama! This change is far overdue. Although the commercials say Obama lacks experience, they never address how the so-called experienced Republicans have run this country into the ground. We can't afford to reward McSAME-Palin after the mess this administration has caused.
Steve Wicinski, Dayton, OH, USA
Great article. Thanks, Andrew. I am sitting here with my fingers crossed for next week. By the way, i hope Ushi gets better info than the nonsense from Fergus Falls.
Vikki, Harrisburg, USA
Obama is going to ruin this country!!!
Megan, Chilhowie, United States
This election is kind of humorous,in a dark way; an aging clone of the republican leader-model, with his buxom, brassy broad side kick, versus JFK 2.0. Obama seems more every man, and McCain represents the tried and tested republican candidate; sitting in the clouds, ready to rule from the clouds.
Lye Gevitz, Abbotsford, Canada
Barack Obama will, in fact, be the 21st century FDR. Even more so. He has a good mind, discipline, and concern for the good of people. Plus he has a knack for getting the best people to work with him. Just look at the campaign organization. As Reagan said, "Morning in America." Hooray!
AJS, Louisville, USA
US election important for world's leaders. I don't think 72 year old man can manage actively for US and leading the world in 21st century. If US elected 72 year old man for their leader, all countries would changed the leaders rules and US citizens planning back behind.
Good luck America.
Nawbyinbau, London, UK
In the Clinton years, the country was successful and the people making $250k paid 39.5% and since the Bush years they have paid 35%. I had my accountant send the average of what I pay on $62k, under Bush 42.3%. Obama's plan is a bonus to the country, not Marxist or Socialist, quit whining!
richard, chandler az, usa
Clinton left with a surplus only in name. A budget surplus only. Our national debt never stopped growing.
Brendan, Wiesbaden,
So, on Nov. 4th, let's all celebrate "socialism" "communist" hack, China already own half of the world.
izzie, Richmond,
We cant take another four years of bush = mccain =same ..90% of the time is too much for me ..
lois, big stone gap, wise
the world is waiting for an obama win , 500 years after balboa went around the bulge of africa with the sword in one hand and the cross in the other. is this the reason for this planets interest in the american elections but finally the americans will decide who is in the white house
radha pather , Dundas, Ontario, Canada
Two qualities of a leader that are indispensable are intellectual prowess and decision-making skills. Whoever (McCain or Obama) possesses those qualities should be elected.
Oladeji N. Gabisi, Hamilton, Bermuda
Obama is a centrist and a pragmatist. He will appoint very competent people from both parties and will do everything he can to return the US to a position of respect in the world. Marxist? Socialist? What planet are you on, Desmond? God forbid that most Americans had affordable health care.
Totto, Lake Oswego, Oregon, USA
Kudos to Marty Price's remark.."This country is built from the bottom up..not the top down." Since 1980 we witnessed an intolerant greed driven Conservative Right temper tantrum. Clinton was able to provide a breath of fresh air for eight years and he left us with a surplus and world respect!!!
ellie, Natick, USA
Is what Palin doing as Gov. of Alaska redistributing wealth?
Taxing the oil companies in Alaska and sending the checks to Alaska
residents.
Does Palin know the meaning of the word ‘socialism’?
Paula Wagstaff, Auckland, New Zealand
WRONG. The polls in the US mean nothing they never did; they are fantasies created by the mainstream media. The media having been denied Hilary are settling for Barack, but they forget about "flyover country" which wins the elections, not california or new york. IT will be McCain.
bruce, torrance, USA
http://www.fergusfallsjournal.com/news/2008/oct/25/who-barack-obama/
This is a very well written article for anybody interested in or voting in the election, It comes heartily recommended. I feel insulted by the dearth of valuable commentary on the election available in the main media..
ushi, Llanelli, UK
Senator Obama is hardly an unknown newcomer. Try peering into McCain's past and the sordid little dealings of the hockey Mom in Alaska and see how much you thought you knew. My father and family spent 6 years defeating Hitler and his regime. Republican polices are far too close for comfort.
Phil Allsopp, Scottsdale, Arizona, USA
It's hard to follow your logic.
A number of people scary of a new-comer winning with a landslide, Obama doing well because of his financial clout, winning the presidential debate by 'every reasonable measure' and then wonder of wonders, polls tightening because of the Bradley effect!
Daniel Onyango, Lancaster, UK
Why does Obama:s Kenyan grandmother say she was present at his birth in a Mombassa hospital and why will he not disclose his Hawiian Live Birth Certificate?, if he has one that is. He had an Indonesian Passport when he travelled to Pakistan. my money is still on McCain.
E Pryor, Gravesend , UK
With his announced policies, the first black American president is likely to be the worst one-term wonder since Carter. Farthest left, least bi-partisan, least qualified, but a GREAT SPEAKER. If America does elect him, then they deserve no less. Republicans will be back in strength in four years.
Don, Brunswick, Geogia, USA
a republican friend of mine in Texas has switched to Obama for fear that Palin might become President if Mcain dies., that prospect really scares him
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Exactly right ,the numbers are too good to be true. Obama will never be elected as President. Only enemies of USA as superpower, wish such an unnatural outcome, it wont happen. Anti-Americans liftists, former communist Europeans will take this wish to their grave "honi soit qui mal y pense" of USA.
John, Atlanta, GA, USA
I thought media in America was drooling over the prospect of an Obama presidency until I read the Times. In its lust to heap adoration on the annointed one, someone forgot to point out that he's slipping in the polls, as Americans finally wake up to his socialist tendencies. Go SARAH!
JM, Tallahassee, USA
I have always been a Democrat and voted Democratic in every national election, state and local elections. Never in my life have I experienced the excitement and fervor of voting for a candidate who will the first African-American to become President of the powerful country in the world, the USA.
Inocentes, Alexandria, USA
What is wrong with American people who only want change at whatever cost? Why do so many people want to vote for a man who only promises and promises change??? Do Americans really think that the changes that come will be the changes they want or need?
Wake up people-what change is he promising?
Carol, Birmingham, Ala
I don't know about you, but as a US citizen it bothers me that there are so many non-American posters commenting on how they feel Obama will be a fine president. This entire election has been focused on the minority and not the background or qualifications of ANY candidate. What a disappointment.
SBC, MS,
If the people are voting for Obama, it's to change the Republicans with Democrats. When something isn't working right anymore, you need to use a different tool, maybe something will improve. You try new methods, new ideas. Whoever came with the idea of war is richer, while the population is poorer!
Simona, Copenhagen, Denmark
"The likes of Barack Obama comes once in every generation. We are blessed to have him now"
Christian Sesay, Fortworth, USA
I think Barack Obama is going to lose. He is too radical. He supports abortion and gay marriage, which are two things that true Christians would never support. It is also something that God states is wrong in the Bible. So, if he is a true Christian, then why would he support that? Go McCain!
Christy, McCool,
Actually, Bin Laden flew planes into the Twin Towers because of the Gulf War liberation of Kuwait by George Bush, not because of the 8 years of Clinton's foreign policy.
John, Chicago, USA
As a citizen of the USA; and one who has Obama as his US Senator, I can agree with this story. I tend to vote Republican, but I actually vote for the best and most qualified candidate. Obama will be my choice, even though his ideology is not mine. He'll do the right thing, not just the party thing
Kayo, Chicago, USA
Sarah Palin running for the Presidency in 2012? She'll be lucky to be re-elected as Goveror of AK.
Really, Oklahoma, USA
Don't count your chickens until they are hatched.
Mary, Sparks, NV, USA
McCain Palin lose; Palin wins an opportunity for 2012 against potential President Obama. A formerly honorable McCain continues to throw smears of all sorts, distortions, and false premises. Palin's pitbull red meat is remarkable. An empty head, but with specious anti-Obama oratory. Obama should win.
Michael Prosser, Shanghai, China
For those of you, Americans included tragically, who choose to forget: islamic extremists chose to fly planes into buildings after 8 years of Democrat (Clinton) foreign policy, not Republican.
And now you say "let's improve the USs image w/ Obama"
What a tragic joke.
Bertie, London,
I see in Mr. Obama the potential to be a truly great president, equal to John Kennedy and FDR. He's smart (Harvard Law). He cares about people more than self-enrichment (check out his resume on Wikipedia). Third, he has integrity and emotional maturity. We could not elect a better man.
Gregory, Toronto, Canada
Could the "Bradley effect" work in reverse?, afterall the Tories won election after election in the 1980's and nobody would admit to voting for them.
fiona, BIRMINGHAM UK, west midlands
As a black South African resident in the UK for years I am really excited that the world is presenting a life changing opportunity for history making... I cannot hold my excitement of "living" History. Obama all the way and even if he didn't make it I would have supported Mrs Clinton!!
Fabian, London, UK
I don't think that Obama is as smart as the media is making out to be. I listened to his speaches, and I got very little out of the flowery vocabs that he used. Reminds me of a marketing ad. I give you that he is a good actor. With a year of personal coaching for his current role, who wouldn't be?
wynn, San Francisco,
After the catastrophe we have had for the last 8 years, Anyone would be an improvement...I love how the Republicans can look people in the eye and say all their garbage after robbing us blind. They wanted to privitize our SS but, thank heavens, they didnt get to do that. GO Obama, we need you!!!
Mary Lubbe, Euless, USA
After being yanked through the mud on every issue, Obama deserves to be President of the USA, especially after he kept his cool and nothing is able to stick yet. His policy and love for America and not just business owners but the poor as well is a great thing- a Christian thing.
Mirika, topeka, USA
Biden just killed any chance of Osama winning...thanks for warning us Joe...you're a true American.
Derek, North of SF, USA
Al Cburg, USA, yes, voter fraud was rampant in the last two elections, which were stolen from the Democrats in Ohio and Florida. Not this time. Americans are turning out in droves to vote early and make sure their voices are heard--as was done by this household on Saturday. Vote Obama/Biden!
Martin, Chicago, USA
Excellent and thoughtful article, by the way!
Martin, Chicago, USA
Long Tom Jefferson took over the Presidency in 1800 as an Anti-fed, but did he abolish his own power?No, he bought Louisiana!There is too much power to be had.You'd be a fool to think a Pelosi-Reid-Obama establishment will rule on the side of the center-right American people.
Margaret, New York, New York, USA
Obamas plan to give a tax cut to 95% of Americans is an illusion. More than one-third of Americans already pay no income taxes. His plan is really an income transfer where people who dont pay taxes also get a check from the IRS. In the past, this was called welfare.
Tim Johnson, Phoenix, AZ, USA
President Barack Obama of the United States of America.
Hopefully America's long, sad nightmare of darkness will soon come to an end...and a new, respected and prosperous USA will once again be able to stand with pride among the
world's nations.
Garth Strong, Houston, USA
I think it will be like 1980 when Regan always looked like he was going to win, and crushed it in the end. People will walk into booths and decide "yes he can do it". My moneys is in fact that Georgia will be borderline state.
Robert, Melbourne, Australia
The Obama campaign, in donations averaging £42, took in £114 million ($150m USD). Wage earning people have empowered Senator Obama to reach amazing heights. They have transcended America's inherent racism to support a truly remarkable individual. Lets hope its enough to win.
Saxxon Domela, Mount Vernon, United States
Scott and Desmond should just sit back and let Obama undo the damge and greed this administration has perpetrated on our people. The parrallels between the three GOP admins. of the 20's and this one are quite literal. This country is built from the bottom up and not from the top down!
Marty Price, Oakland,Ca., United States
Obama now down to ~3 points and falling, there will be a rude awaking on Nov 5th when McCain wins. I will be laughing for days. How will this happen? Easily, the Hispanics will not vote for Obama in any way near the numbers they predict nor will white working class voters, sorry but true.
Doug, Gardnerville, USA
I'm not an economist and neither is Obama, but I've never heard about those laws of economics you refer to. The fact that big earners are taxed is done in a proportionate way. Besides, many of us help our companies make the big bucks, so I don't think we don't earn our tax cuts.
Forsythe, Taipei City, Taiwan
It's not over until it's over... a lot of the McCain supporters are older, and they don't even use computers to participate in the various biased polling...remember the headlines in the newspapers the morning after the election (1948) Dewey beats Truman, when in fact Truman won...remember?
sarah jackson, modesto california, usa
Obama's economic plan is an absolute disaster in the making, a complete denial of the laws of economics. Penalizing success is as un-American as it gets. Individuals, not government create wealth. How is it "fair" to take wealth from an individual who earns it and give it to another who does not.
Scott Bowers, Minerva, Ohio, USA
Obama will more than likely win...if young people actually show up to vote. They have generally been the most unreliable group of voters in American history. If they actually vote, just a little more than they did in '04, then its over. If they don't show up like they tend to do, it may be close.
Jon, Lincoln, U.S.A.
I have worked for several democratic campaigns, but the Obama campaign is like no other I have ever seen or been a part of. In our office in N. Virginia, volunteers stream in all day and night. We are at it non-stop. It's a lot of work, but it's exciting and rewarding.
Ashley Wells, annandale, usa
Forget about the "-ists" already! How about a smart, creative president who listens to people of all persuasions and comes up with new solutions to today's new problems.
Labeling people and ideas is so much easier than really thinking about them.
Donna Brown, Kennewick, USA
Well if voting is done all over the country as in Ohio he should win every state. The Dems who run the state aren't missing any trick to rig the system. They're not going to lose this state like in 2004. Voter fraud is rampant. Same day voting and registering breeds corruption and theyre doing it.
Al, Cburg, USA
I have heard of intellectual gymnastics.Even heard of philosophical pirouettes.But exactly what contortions of logic or distortions of objective observations are required to consider McCain a 'socialist' is beyond my capacity to imagine.
geoffR, Karlstad, Se
Obama is a Marxist, McCain is a Socialist. We will pick the lessor of two evils.
Desmond Taylor, Houston , USA TX
Obama's intellectual capacity is fine, but he also has to provide the right leadership to ensure things are done, to inspire confidence. He has to select the right team and use their skills. The drawback with intellectual types is they can often talk too much and not get things done.
Neil Murphy, Cromer,
Three Words will ring from the East Coast to the West Coast on November 4th: Yes We Can!
Jimmy C, Letchworth Garden City, UK
Obama will make a fine President; his all inclusive approach will be great for USA in these troubled times. His intellectual capacity will be in dispensible, he has the descipline it takes to work a job like this; The world need genuine leaders at this stage.In fact the world recognises this.
Margaret, London, UK