This much I know: I’ll never make it to Obama’s cabinet. The vetting form alone is 63 pages of personal and exhaustive questions, including citations of every blog post you may have written that could prove embarrassing to the president-elect. Ahem.

The more remarkable fact about the transition is its deliberate haste. Despite the onerous vetting process, Obama’s methodical focus has meant one of the swiftest jump-starts in recent American political history. Only the Reagan transition went so quickly. Yet there’s also still an abort button on every candidate. No one has yet been formally named so there will be no need to undo an appointment after the fact if some burp in the vetting were to emerge. The Obamaites remember the chaotic amateurism of the Bill Clinton transition in 1993. From the look of it so far, the transition is as smooth and professional as the running of the campaign.

What of the content? The biggest shock, of course, is the tapping of Hillary Clinton for secretary of state. I say shock because no one expected it, including Her Imperial Highness of Appalachia. But the more you think about it, the less surprising it is. Clinton remains the biggest domestic threat to the Obama presidency. The Republicans, decimated by the feckless campaign of John McCain and the malign incompetence of Karl Rove, have become a toothless, bitter rump. The Clintons, however, retain a following in the Democratic party and the Senate, and Hillary, left to machinate on Capitol Hill, would be angling to put her stamp on healthcare reform and run against Obama in 2012. At every stage, he would have to watch his back. And front.

Earlier this year, it seemed a good idea to plonk her on the ticket to defang the threat. That would have followed the “team of rivals” concept that Obama wanted to purloin from Lincoln. It would also have given the Clintons an independent claim on power. By winning without them and even, in some measure, despite them, Obama can now bring the Clintons into the power structure while retaining clear dominance. The State Department appointment is prestigious enough not to be condescending, yet also keeps Clinton off the Washington circuit more than any other position. She’ll be on a plane or abroad a great deal. Extra bonus: Bill will just love that. Sending his wife to the Middle East is the ex-president’s idea of a good time.

There’s also the small question of Iraq. Think of the appointment this way: “You voted for this bloody war, Hillary; you can end it.” Withdrawing from Iraq will not be easy and it may well be gruesome. I have no confidence that the place won’t erupt into an even nastier civil war when the United States pulls out than it did when the United States didn’t fully push in. How does a president avoid the domestic blow-back of essentially cutting his losses on a doomed adventure? He uses Clinton as a protective shield from domestic critics.

It’s also a rather brilliant manoeuvre against those elements on the right – from Fox News to Washington neocons – who came out in praise of Clinton in the spring when she sounded more hawkish than Obama on the Middle East. Having hailed Clinton as the Iron Lady of the Jews, the stab-in-the-back right will find it hard to pivot immediately and accuse her of treason if and when she ends the Iraq occupation.

Clinton’s relative hawkishness on Iran will also help Obama. When he opens negotiations, he will have a tough intermediary who will keep Tehran guessing and enable him to retain a certain aloofness. She’d be the bad cop; he’d remain the good one. I doubt anyone in foreign capitals would question that the Clintons were doing as Obama asked them. To undermine your own president at the education department is one thing; to plot against him in front of foreigners is treason. The State Department is therefore a golden strait-jacket. Also, any Clinton triumphs can only redound to Obama’s credit. Win-win. If she succeeds in the office, it’s hard to think of a better platform for the presidency in 2016.

The real import of the decision, though, may not be understood until the Obama administration tackles the Israel-Palestine question. The Clintons are well known and respected on both sides. They have prestige to cash in and a Rolodex to use in trying to move a potential deal forward. Bill’s 2000 blueprint for a two-state deal is still the best working proposal. If any combination could achieve a breakthrough, it would be the force magnifier of the new and charismatic president allied with the skill and experience of a former one’s wife. And, of course, we all long to see Clinton in a veil.

Obama’s other chief enemy will be the Democratic Congress. So Obama has picked Rahm Emanuel as his chief of staff to keep the Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in line; and he has selected Tom Daschle, a key ally who knows Congress well, as his secretary of health and human services. By keeping Bob Gates at defence for the interim, he maintains a bipartisan flavour that, one suspects, will become more obvious as lesser appointments emerge.

Eric Holder at justice is a professional pick who will shore up a demoralised department. Janet Napolitano, governor of a border state, will head homeland security and become a strong female leader in the party to keep Clinton on her toes. The key decision will be the Treasury. If the pattern we have seen persists – strong personalities deployed by a president eager to reform – Larry Summers could well have a shot.

That is the real impression of these selections. Obama has been attuned to domestic politics so far but above all he seems deadly serious about governing. The common thread is managerial competence and intellectual heft and governing experience. He senses, I think, the kind of moment that Margaret Thatcher and Reagan once sensed: a quickening of the times, a reckoning – financial, economic, military and diplomatic – that could lead to dramatic change enduring a generation.

He wants to make sure that, unlike George Bush, he has the quality of personnel he needs: people who know how to pull the levers and check under the machinery of government if they don’t seem to work. He is change enough. What he needs is a way to make the government work effectively again.

After eight years of arbitrary improvisation run out of the vice-president’s imperial office, we have the possibility of a cabinet of real individuals, able to push back internally but govern efficiently. There will doubtless be bumps on the road and grem-lins in the engine. But this newbie seems pretty serious to me.

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