Anjana Ahuja: Science Notebook
Win a fitness package worth more than £3,000
Everyone who buys a lottery ticket has an equal chance of winning. Which is marvellous when it comes to a Saturday night rollover but not so great when the stakes are higher, for instance deciding who goes to the best schools and universities.
Brighton and Hove City Council has become the first in England to allocate places in popular schools by lottery. According to a thoughtful analysis by the psychologist Barry Schwartz, the argument for higher education establishments to adopt a lottery admissions system is even greater. The idea is certainly no sillier than awarding university places on the basis of whether your parents donned a mortarboard.
Professor Schwartz, of Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania, is the author of The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less. When it comes to choice in education, his position is even more hardline — why none is best. If you have lots of candidates who meet the entry criteria, he writes in The Los Angeles Times, then trying to choose the best handful is “a fool’s errand”. Selectors “are assuming a level of precision of assessment that is unattainable”.
Schwartz bases this on something called the principle of the flat maximum: “What the principle argues is that when comparing the qualifications of people who are bunched up at the very top of the curve, the amount of inherent uncertainty in evaluating their credentials is larger than the measurable differences among candidates.”
He suggests that colleges try an experiment: in one year’s intake, select half the candidates in the usual way and the other half by lottery. Tracking the outcomes of these two groups would help to indicate whether admissions tutors do any better than a roll of the dice.
It would ease the pressure on kids to be the best, because being good enough would suffice. Who knows, it might even stir children into learning for the sheer joy of learning, rather than because they long to attend Harvard or Oxford.
– When I am struggling to write something, I notice that I need a vice about me; perhaps a chocolate bar or some other sugary temptation. During the exertions of typing, it is as if the mental reins are loosened elsewhere.
This came to mind when I read of the work of Suzanne Segerstrom and Lise Solberg Nes, at the University of Kentucky. They asked hungry volunteers to choose either a snack of cookies and chocolates, or carrots. They then asked the sated volunteers to solve some anagrams, some of which were impossible. Those who had eaten the carrots gave up soonest.
The researchers suggest that resisting the cookies depleted the mental resources left to deal with the anagrams. Interestingly, they also found that heart rate rose when volunteers were resisting the cookies. You know, just telling you this stuff has taken it out of me. I’m hitting the HobNobs.
Anjana Ahuja joined The Times in 1994, and writes for times2 and the comment pages. In her Science Notebook she writes about science, medicine and technology, and their impact on society. She holds a PhD in space physics from Imperial College, London. She is currently on maternity leave.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2006
£10,750
Great car insurance deals online
£Excellent+ executive benefits
Torres and Partners
London
£49,229 - £62,035 pro rata
Charity Commission
London/Liverpool/Taunton
Alstom Power
Europe
Six Figure
Rolls Royce
Midlands/Europe
From £89,950
Great Investment, River Views
Special Offers now available
At the new sophisticated
Encore Las Vegas Resort!
Cruise the Islands of Hawaii - Pride of America
List your property with two leading travel websites
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths
News International associated websites: Globrix | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
No need for an experiment! Selecting students for entry to high demand courses like medicine and law has been fixed using a lottery in Holland for years. Despite complaints, it has been shown to work very well (The Drenth Commission). Find out more about lottery selection on
www.conallboyle.com
Conall Boyle, Port Talbot, Wales
Prof Schwartz is selecting his sample from the top of the curve and, arguing that the inherent inaccuracy of selection methods when applied to this sample is greater than that obtained by random selection (Interesting but it doesn't explain the academic excellence of Oxford and Cambridge who still used a focussed selection to select from this group). If I understand your article, Brighton and Hove are selecting from the whole pool of candidates, not the top echelon - in which case the inbuilt error of random selection will almost certainly exceed that of focussed selection. Brighton and Hove need to justify this basis for selection - or apply Schwartz's theorem correctly by preselection for a cohort of the high achievers and only then letting the dice roll.
Roddy Campbell, Christchurch, New Zealand
What a spectacularly stupid proposition!! This defeatist approach is by no means more fair than the selection process we have today. What we really need to do is implement exams that distinguish between a good student, an excellent student and an exceptional student. Perhaps if exams were set at such a level that the best of students find them challenging, then places like Oxford and Cambridge can make an informed decision. If 70% is a borderline entry to Oxford or Cambridge, then there is no need to worry about scores of 80% being turned away. This would get rid of Prof Schwartz's problem about top applicants being indistinguishable from one another. It is in fact why most Cambridge Colleges use the STEP paper for mathematics entry.
James, Adelaide,
Yes, a University lottery could ease pressure on children to be the best - but it could also very easily take away the main motivation for doing really well at A levels (which trust me, are not easy but a lot of very hard work - I'm in the middle of mine)
sam, farnham, UK