Anjana Ahuja: Science Notebook
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If hospitals are buckling under the strain now, what would happen during an influenza pandemic? The scary fact is that, when it comes to bed allocation or the dishing out of anti-virals, some of us may be at the back of a very long queue.
A Canadian study of patients who contracted severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) offers useful pointers on who should be sent to the back and who should be pushed to the front. It involves genetic discrimination and seems about the fairest way of working out who should get preferential treatment.
When your body fights an infection, it produces interferon. This puts the body on alert and prompts an immune response (lab-produced interferon is widely used to treat cancers). However, people differ in their production of this protein. The study, conducted at the University Health Network, in Toronto, found that the pattern of interferon activity that each patient showed was closely linked to how sick he became.
Blood samples taken from patients when they first fell ill during the 2003 Sars outbreak were run through a genetic analysis that looked at the proteins produced by thousands of genes. The researchers identified two distinct patterns in the way interferon was expressed by genes. Patients who suffered mild to moderate symptoms showed one pattern; patients who fell severely ill or later died displayed the other.
“This study suggests that information on how a Sars patient expresses these genes during their illness can be used to identify who may require more specific treatment,” says Mark Cameron, the lead author of the study writing in the Journal of Virology. “Also, we think that these patterns may apply to illnesses caused by flu viruses and that they should be considered in pandemic influenza preparedness, once we have done the work necessary.”
In this country, there has been much debate about prioritising care on the basis of age. Yet older people, who have the longest history of flu exposure, may be the least vulnerable. Now we learn that good genes will help the lucky. Never has a policy of genetic discrimination seemed more equitable.

I’ve just received the perfect summer read, which is a bit annoying since I came back from my break a week ago. In Why People Believe Weird Things, Michael Shermer, a columnist for Scientific American and well-known sceptic, delves into the fashionable Dawkinsian territory of irrational belief and superstition.
He is a master of the art of gentle, amused debunking; he is less shouty and smug than others who preach similar good sense (yes, I do mean Richard Dawkins, although I noted a softer tone in his recent Channel 4 series). Rather than railing at the gullibility of the masses, Shermer probes, with compassionate curiosity, the more interesting question of why smart people cling to bizarre beliefs. I’m afraid I can’t reveal more: that would be bad karma.

Anjana Ahuja joined The Times in 1994, and writes for times2 and the comment pages. In her Science Notebook she writes about science, medicine and technology, and their impact on society. She holds a PhD in space physics from Imperial College, London. She is currently on maternity leave.
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Apropos the comments by Pete from Cov. I really appreciate your views, but as a matter of fact, Oxford thesaurus , a well qualified and authoritative book on English language puts up 'acute' and "severe" as synonyms and interchangeable too.
Nevertheless, I shall keep my pocket medical dictionary and a OED next to my laptop, before penning down my comments.
Anyway, Thanx a zillion!!!!
Sandy, New Delhi, India
Very well written and informed article. Mike's idea is also quite good - medical staff, emergency services personnel, civil servants, the government, transport, communications or power supply workers should be prioritised.
Ben, York,
I hope we NEVER have SOCIALIZED UNIVERSAL MEDICAL CARE in AMERICA. It's bad enough we allowed HMO's (managed health care by health care corporations). We'll make sure that changes soon enough! Good bye Hillary Clinton!!
Our system isn't as broken as I thought, as I compared it to countries that have socialized their health care systems. My brothers' mother-in-law lives in Vancouver, British Columbia. She requires dialysis three times a week . He brought her to New York and ADOPTED her so that she could get her dialysis. If she had been left to CANADA'S health care system, she would be DEAD at age 59, because there is a waiting period for patients requiring dialysis AND that 'wait period' is determined by availability of dialysis machines and the possibility of successful treatment or kidney donors. Orwell anyone?
charles kohm, staten Island, new york
Dear readers,
Thank you for some pithy comments (again). It's nice to be back! Two of you point out the logistical difficulty and delays in implementing a genetic test for susceptibility - that is true - but this is something that managers can work on. The Canadian SARS researchers obviously thought this was worth flagging up as a potential stategy in a flu pandemic - and, frankly, it's better than anything else I've heard about (apart from vaccinating healthcare workers first).
I also note, Mike Bibby, that you haven't included science journalists in your list of priority people to receive anti-virals, an issue that I must take up at some point....
anjana ahuja, london,
"something which is severe and yet acute is perhaps redundancy" - sandy, New Delhi, India
What you need, my dear, is a medical dictionary. Actually, any dictionary will do.
'Acute' means that the condition is a one-off. The opposite of 'acute' is 'chronic' which means that the condition is recurring.
Pete, Cov,
Anjana,
When were you last in a NHS hospital for surgery (or for a procedure?). I was in a specialist hospital in London ten days ago and an extrordinary number of patients were treated quickly and safely. I lost count of the clinical staff dealing with me. And they were able to have me blood tested and swabbed for MRSA two days before the procedure. I should add that ,although the default position of any writer on medical matters or the NHS, is that of Chicken Little, perhaps you should aim a little higher in future.
Diotima, London , UK
Thanks for drawing our attention to Shermer's new book. Sounds like it would be a good tonic to one's faith after Ken Ham and his "dinosaurs in the Ark".
Dawkins would have done more for science if he'd concentrated his attention on the legal profession ("Barcodes at the Bar").
Robert H. Olley, Reading, Berks, UK
Anjana, as usual, very informative and knowledge-packed article on science and virology. I'm less intrigued by the 'flu queue' factor and more so by the term "SARS" as an acroynm for sever acute respiratory syndrome. It sounds like some weasel word, something which is severe and yet acute is perhaps redundancy, a double whammy or twice over. Not to berate or trivalise the intensity of the health disorder which attacks like an epidemic and spreads from one person to another through air borne bacteria and viruses. It is a shame, when our health centres and hospitals ain't equipped well to tackle the medical exigency. The story lies same else where too. Perhaps in India, the incompetency of Hospitals is too flagrant and overt.To my knowledge, 'interferon', a self generated human protein to combat viruses and up the immune system,was once suggested as a wonder drug to fight out cancer cells and multiple sclerosis.A variant type II and III receptor inhibits production of infected cells.
sandy, New Delhi, India
"three days that it takes for forensic DNA analysis"
Actually a simple PCR based assay designed to identify three markers would take 5-6 hours, the three day guideline is the result of form filling, transportation and the fact that there is a backlog. If you wanted to rapidly screen a lot of people the scientific techniques exist to do it; we just need to develop a more efficent bureaucracy to manage it
Robert McGuiness, London, England
May I suggest a simpler, much less costly, and indeed more effective method of prioritisation; value to the poublic.
At the top of the list, obviously, are those who can help others - the medical profession.
At the bottom, equally obviously, are parasites, and those passengers whose cheap-skating ensured that we have an inadequate supply of anti-virals - all politicians (especially the cabinet) and health service managers. I suggest readers should construct their own (long) list of parasites; I'll start you off with lawyers, public relations, health and safety officials - and leave the rest to you!
Mike Bibby, St Albans, England -not EU
I thgink you have this completely wrong. in the event of an outbreak, hospitals will simply ask how much tax you pay and will then allot you a place accordingly. If you are a celebrity of course, you'll be right at the front along with any ex, or otherwise, Labour politician. I can't wait to say I told you so.
Judy , Liverpool, england
Anjana, you (and the researchers) have missed a point here.
Taking as a guideline the three days that it takes for forensic DNA analysis, this genetic marker for susceptibility to Influenza and its varients is not going to be much use if a few million people are knocking at the door. The terminal ones would typically be dead before the analysis showing their susceptibility was completed.
Nice idea - it just wouldn't work unless new techniques of DNA analysis were developed which were simple and instant.
Brian Vallance, LEFKIMMI, Hellas
The entire hospital/health system needs an overhaul. Some hospitalized patients would do better in a good hotel such as mothers on their second day and folks almost ready to go home after surgery. Nursing homes are NOT good places to put them. And, the insurance industry should mandate a radical change in billing procedures. When stock supplies are used without individual billing the cost is a lot less so why not add up 100 routine appendectomies, divide the cost, and bill across the board for that figure without the charge slips that are so costly to provide, use, and bill?
A lot of thought could improve care in hospitals without adding beds.
Jane Kelley, Renton, Washington
What would happen? The Minister for the NHS would tell us that the NHS had just had its best year ever, and depart with a smug look on his or her face.
Jeremy Poynton, Fromeville, 51st State