Tony Blair and the Iraq war may have alienated them, but they are not ready to turn to David Cameron. That is the central conclusion of a Populus poll of 16 to 19-year-olds, those who will be able to vote for the first time at an election in 2008-09.

The poll was conducted early last autumn among 1,277 teenagers for the centre-right Bow Group, which has just released the results.

The main political experience of 16 to 19-year-olds has been within the Blair years. Very few will have memories of political events before May 1997. But there is no sense of a generation of Blair’s children with values shaped by new Labour. Far from it.

Mr Blair lost it with this age group because of the Iraq war. Almost half the sample, 44 per cent, say that while they could not imagine voting Conservative they will not vote Labour because of Iraq. Moreover, they believe that the Blair Government is obsessed with Iraq. Some 52 per cent think Iraq is one of Labour’s top three priorities, but only 11 per cent of first-time voters pick Iraq as a top three issue for themselves – a huge 41-point gap.

This group is also highly sceptical about the Blair/Brown approach to taxation and public services. More than three fifths agree that “taxes in Britain are too high and should be cut even if this means less money is available for some areas of government spending”. Just a quarter disagree. This finding is at one level surprising, since most of this group do not pay direct taxes and have been at least the intended beneficiaries of the increased spending on education.

First-time voters feel strongly about climate change: 58 per cent think that “much more should be done”, even if this means “significantly higher prices for things like cars, petrol and air travel”. And 36 per cent pick climate change as one of their top three issues. Only 9 per cent think it is in the Government’s top three. In a partial tribute to Mr Canmeron’s efforts to rebrand his party, 19 per cent think it is in the Conservative Party’s top three.

This is one area where the timing of the poll may have made a difference. Since the interviews were done, Mr Blair and David Miliband have made climate change a much higher public priority.

First-time voters feel distant from Blairism: 85 per cent do not agree that Labour “shares my values”, and only 16 per cent believe that Labour has policies “relevant for people of my age”. Nearly nine in ten disagree with the statement that Labour is “honest and principled”.

But this disillusionment with Labour has not benefited the other main parties. Some 18 per cent say they would vote Labour, 16 per cent the Tories and 12 per cent the Liberal Democrats. But 28 per cent say they would back other parties, notably the Greens on 8 per cent and the British National Party on 6 per cent. A quarter say they would not vote at all.

As the Bow Group rightly concludes, this is a “depressing picture” for the leaders of all the main parties. The 16 to 19-year-olds have not embraced Mr Blair’s ideas or values. Neither have they fallen into the arms of any other party. The “Google generation” is still searching. Poll results

44% cannot imagine voting Conservative, but will not vote Labour because of Iraq 89% do not believe Labour is honest and principled 46% would vote for one of the three main parties 28% would vote for one of the smaller parties 27% would not vote at all Source: Populus poll of 1,277 people aged 16 to 19 for the Bow Group

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