Gerard Baker: American view
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It’s a tad early for Democrats to be measuring the curtains at the White House, but there’s a palpable sense of opportunity in Washington among the party’s fervent but long-frustrated adherents. With 18 months to the presidential election, and Republicans mired in an unpopular war and labouring under an unpopular president, the Democrats surely have their best shot at winning back the White House since Bill Clinton emerged from the obscurity of Arkansas more than 15 years ago.
Most of the world’s attention is on what the Democrats would do about Iraq and foreign policy in general. But much can happen between now and November 2008 that makes speculation about policy for a turbulent region and a volatile world slightly pointless.
More interesting in many ways, and somewhat easier to think about, is what a Democrat president would do in the field of economic policy and what impact it would have on the global economy. While Democrats surely would try to heal some of the diplomatic rifts that have emerged in the past six years between the United States and much of the world, there are understandable concerns about what they would do for the global economy.
The party has shifted in a distinctly protectionist direction since it last held the White House. Its union backers have succeeded in forcing Democrats to focus on the losses from globalisation rather than the gains. Domestically, Democrats are inclined to push back against the tidal wave of deregulation over the past 25 years.
Of course, Democrats have long been sceptical about the benefits of free markets, but Democrat administrations have not necessarily proved to be antimarket in practice. True, in the 1970s, Jimmy Carter was an unmitigated economic disaster from start to mercifully early finish, but he was in many ways simply following the interfering consensus of the times – well-established, it must be said, by that staunch Republican Richard Nixon.
Mr Clinton, in contrast, may have been notoriously ill-disciplined in his personal life and poll-driven in too much of his politics, but in economic terms he was the very model of a responsible politician.
In his first term in office, against the overwhelming opposition of his own party, he supported the completion of the GATT trade round and the establishment of the World Trade Organisation, the North America Free Trade Agreement and the most far-reaching reform of welfare policy since the New Deal.
In the process Mr Clinton demonstrated that, with a certain amount of political backbone, the right personnel in important positions and a nose for compromise when necessary, even a Democrat can buck the trend of antimarket sentiment.
Mr Clinton surrounded himself with wise heads who pushed his party in the right direction. He made Robert Rubin, the former Goldman Sachs chief, his chief economic aide and later his Treasury Secretary. Larry Summers, the academic economist, succeeded Mr Rubin at the Treasury. And Mr Clinton was also wise enough to reappoint Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, even though he was a Republican.
The Clinton team also knew how to reach occasionally messy compromises with their opponents in their own part in pursuit of a bigger goal. The Nafta debate is a prime example. Mr Rubin told me recently that half the bridges in America should be called “Nafta” because it passed through Congress in part at least because of a massive public works programme in the districts of key members who were persuaded to vote for it. So a Democrat, if he or she is inclined, can produce business-friendly outcomes.
But are the current crop of presidential contenders so inclined?
Here the news is discouraging. No one in the front ranks of the Democratic party today is willing to confront the rising tide of antimarket sentiment.
John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and once a committed “New Democrat”, is running a nakedly populist campaign. When it was announced in April that Toyota had overtaken General Motors in car and lorry sales, Mr Edwards denounced the Japanese company’s success and suggested it was all to do with unfair trade practices.
Barack Obama, the Illinois senator, for all his talk of a “new politics”, has been reluctant to take on the protectionist wing of his party. On his one big economics vote in his short Senate career he voted against the Central American Free Trade Agreement.
Even Hillary Clinton, the wife of the aforementioned market-supporting president, has made clear that she departs from her husband’s approach in this area. She has been one of the leading critics in the past few years of China’s so-called manipulation of its currency.
So is the brief era of a pro-free trade and pro-markets Democratic Party over? Unfortunately, the answer is probably yes. Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama would presumably resist the wilder demands of their Democrat friends and a Democratic administration would still include a number of sensible economic policy types.
A couple of weeks ago one man who may figure prominently in any future administration, Tim Geithner, the president of the New York Federal Reserve, a key member of the Clinton Treasury team in the 1990s, offered a forceful defence of open markets and global economic integration.
But the going is much tougher now in America. Rising inequality, the pain of jobs lost to the emerging markets of Asia and gathering insecurity about the financial future mean the next Democrat president is not going to waste much time protecting the freedom of modern capitalism.
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I'll grant that the Dems have a tendancy toward bad policy, but I don't think it is an accident that profits are high while wages have stagnated. Rampant cronyism and defecit financed tax cuts centered on the wealthy reveal Republican interests. Augustus claims it is "normal and natural" for the most wealthy people to absorb the lion's share of economic growth. Almost no one suggests equalizing incomes, but is it too much to ask that they rise along with the growing economy.
samuel, missoula, mt
Closing trade will drive up prices for people making less money. Democrats on the left-wing are scary asking for traiffs, and other means to protect jobs that will be outsourced anyways. Clinton was right about NAFTA it made a lot of goods cheaper for all. Nominal wages may go down, but purchasing power goes up because you can buy more for less that is called free trade. Socalistic economic polices never work, and some business would like that but you want shoddy products for higher prices then a dumb populist. Tax policy rewards people know the tax code, and all income levels cheat the goverment in taxes. Flat tax at 15% for all and be surprise how many there are.
nick, chaska , mn
This "analysis" leaves out one important point. Whatever Democrat wins the White House in '08 will still have sounder econmic policies than those of W. The President's "borrow and spend" polices have helped finance an economic expansion on credit card. The American People will pay for that the same way they have paid for all bad economics... they will suffer. Bush the Elder called it "Voodoo Economics". You can be philosophical all you want about Market Economics; W's policies and irresponsibility will cause, at the very least, a hard landing... MAYBE WORSE.
Rich, Lake Como, USA NJ
Rudy Guiliani is a free market trader, and he will be the next President. The Dems will shoot themselves in the foot, as usual.
Americans will not trust a Hillary, Obama, or John Edwards
with national security, regardless of Iraq. Don't believe the hype, Rudy in a walk-over.
Ed Engels, New York,
Mr. Baker is a little hard on Democrats and Jimmy Carter in particular when it comes to economic policies. Carter started the deregulation in transportation in the 1970s. John Kennedy pushed GATT. FDR & Truman understood the problems of the 1930s and led the creation of more open trade after WW II. The current trend of protectionism in the Democratic Party is a departure from its more enlightened past
Bill Huneke, Herndon, Virginia USA
A Democratic president will bring English socialism to America ... Ouch! Hey, why don't you Brits just take Hillary off our hands and save us all a big headache?
Dave, San Diego, California USA
***********************
Sorry, we have enough problems recycling rubbish here, why add to them?
phil, London, uk
There is no turning back from a global economy, but there is the option of making that economy work for all and not just the hypercapitalists. Too many democrats in the past have take their cue from the same people who benefit from what we have had the last eight years, and possibly twelve. What we need is someone who will seek to protect workers' rights, the environment, to eliminate corruption, and to be a world partner in eliminating poverty. Why does a corporate CEO have to make $400 million, when he can live very well with $10 million. If we really want to change our nation, we all have to live more modestly and not just those who have no other option.
Ignacio M. Garcia, Provo, Utha
Give us a break Sam! socialist economies shrink and go backwards to equal poverty. capitalist societies expand to unequal wealth. Republican states prosper Democratic states lose people jobs and house seats. If Democrats have successful economic policies it is because they have kept republican policies. Like Clinton keeping Reaganomics and reappointing Greenspan.
Bill, Norcross, USA,Georgia
One can be but amazed at the refusal by many to admit that the last five years have been a period of great economic growth in the United States. Of course, those at the top have received the far greatest share of the economic pie, but that is normal and natural.
After all, it is foolish beyond belief to hope that a successful economic system can equalize incomes. Nor can a successful economic system guarantee that all will benefit, for the modern economy is too fluid to hope that no one will be left behind.
The question, then, is not the relative division of shares but the adequacy of compensation regardless of position.
augustus goddard, atlanta, ga
The best outcome would likely to be to have Dem control of Congress and Republican control of the White House. This way we are sure to have a government that does not drift to far to the left or right.
Rick, Syosset, NY
American voters need to embrace our money-driven economy and society. As the world's greatest consumer market, even regions like California can vote with its pocketbook and not purchase Toyotas or any other commodity that deprives us of good jobs. Neither Democrats or Republicans understand that policy nor advocate it.
Bruce Daniels, Running Springs, CA, USA
Sir:
Currently, global markets , across many asset categories , are priced to perfection and are supported by a fundamental, underlying expectation: the continuation "of open markets and global economic integration".
If, within the U.S and elsewhere, perception about a likely change of direction, towards redistribution, protectionism and/or uncompetitive regulatory measures , gathers momentum, the global financial markets will respond by selling off in anticipation of such changes.
Indeed, the going may get tough long before the November 2008 election takes place .
Enrique Hugo Bargioni
Miami Beach, Fla
Enrique Hugo Bargioni, Miami Beach , Florida, USA
By reading the comments above, no one has had a course in economics, let alone a degree. The unemployment rate is at all time lows (that means everyone, not just the "boys"), home ownership is at an all time high, minority home ownership is at an all time high, inflation is still in check, tax revenues are at an all time high (yes, that means more than ever) the budget deficit has shrunk from about 3% od GDP to a little over 1% of GDP (a very managable amount), the tax breaks help the average American more on a percentage basis than the "rich", the top 1% of American wage earners pay 36.89% of all the taxes, the top 25% of American wage earners pay 84.6% of all taxes and the top 50% of American wage earners pay 96.7% of all the taxes. That means 50% of American wage earners pay only 3.3% of the taxes! As a percentage of what gets paid, the % that higher wage earners pay actually went up slightly and thos of lower earners went down. Liberals, never let the facts ruin their story!
John Miller, Olathe, USA
SIR :
OUR unions do not have the power to push anyone on
economic issues. Middle class voters have seen not only
jop loss but loss of health care,benifts and now home values.
Most of the FREE TRADE benifits are not shared by the
lower and middle class.Could it be time we played by the same rule as the world.
dave finnell, elmira, ny
None of the Democrats running for President have any new ideas whatsoever. The one constant is class politics, plain and simple. The Democrats always want to take from the so-called 'rich' and give to those they consider to be have-nots. Other than a profound hatred of Bush on all levels, the Democrats have nothing to offer. Why Americans would want to vote for higher taxes, isolationist foreign policy, weak defense, and an explosion of new entitlements is beyond comprehension. Old wine in new bottles is not what American needs in 2008.
Mike Garfield, Jacksonville, USA/Florida
We in the U.S. have always called it the "Democrat" Party. It's only revisionists who want to attempt to imply democratic principles to the left-wing controlling arm of the Democrat Party which is the contemporary version of the old Communist Party of the United States.
Jim, Roscoe, USA
It cannot get any worse, Mr. Schoolsky? How about international humiliation at the hands of a third world terror state, with high unempolyment and high inflation. Yes, just like Jimmy Carter. Mr. Bush is far from perfect, but on the economy he has many accomplishments that will make him look very good in retrospect if the Dems get control and flush the economy down the toilet.
Hannah Katz, Los Angeles, California
The 1996 Welfare Reform was not Clinton's to brag about. If you look at history, he vetoed it and the Republican controlled Congress over-rode his veto.
Jesse, Des Moines, Iowa
Tax cuts worked. Every economist agreed that the economy was cooling when Clinton left office. We have been throught 9-11, how many hurricanes in Florida. A devastating hurricane in New Orleans all of which sucked billions, that's billions of dollars out of the economy. Despite all that adversity, and a war, the DOW is at an alltime high and the US economy is still the envy of the world. Now, we want the Libs to take over, raise taxes, and go into isolationism? Give me a break.
jc, jerome, idaho
Please remind Mr Baker that we here in America have no 'Democrat' party. Kindly refer to the Democratic party by its proper name, not the denigrating term pushed by the current administration.
As the months wind down on the current debacle in our nation's capital we may all look forward to a DEMOCRATIC administration.
William Crawford, Emmaus, USA/PA
Of course they won't protect capitalistic freedom. The Democrats are Liberals and Liberals want control over everything in goverment. If one of them wins(and I'm not as sure as you seem to be that will happen) and they try protectionist policies, the economic chao's they create will keep them out of the White House for 16 years.....or more.
Joshua Haught, Buckeye/Oxford, Arizona, U.S./ U.K.
The current govt has spent a lot of time protecting the freedom of modern capitalism - unfortunately that has mostly translated as jobs for their boys, hypercapitalism, and widening social inequalities in the USA. Not to mention the deficit, which will create fiscal havoc for any of the hapless parties that will run the USA from 2008, Republican or Democrat. The tax cuts that Bush has introduced have done nothing for the average American, while widening the deficit still further.
It's strange that Gerard Baker is so worried about the economic policies of any future Democrat presidency when the Republican presidency has been such an unmitigated economic disaster for the average working person. Since 2001, the current govt in the USA has been skilled at producing the illusion of wealth (e.g. the housing boom) but the foundations to this are shaky. Corporate profits might be high but productivity and investment are not and that will pose huge problems in the future. It's a bad legacy.
MB, Edinburgh,
As an American, I can put it very simply. After the last almost seven years of Bush, the Iraq War, failed foreign policy, kissing the behind of industry, and loss of civil rights, it would be impossible to go anywhere but up. It can't be any worse.
Sam Schoolsky, Lake Charles, LA, USA
A Democratic president will bring English socialism to America ... Ouch! Hey, why don't you Brits just take Hillary off our hands and save us all a big headache?
Dave, San Diego, California USA
The current candidates from both the Democrats and Republicans are not inspiring and the prospect of Democrat control of both congress and the White House is a nightmare.
One reason that Gerard offered in praise for Clinton, welfare reform, was passed because Clinton "stole" it from the GOP for the 96 election (by which time the Dems no longer controlled congress).
So the last time it was Dems all the way was during the awful Carter years - like I said, a nightmare for '08 onwards if it happens again.
Stan(expat), USA, USA
I agree, the high tide of globalisation and liberalism may be passing at this very instance. US elections tend to run in roughly 36 years cycles: republican 1896-1932; Democrat (largely)1932-.1968; Republican (largely) 1968-2004.
Economic policy cycles have tended to fllow the same pattern with liberalisation beginning tentatively under Carter (yes) and getting its real impetus under Reagan. under Bush II policy has collapsed into a disgusting money grab by vested monied interests so a swing back to the centre is overdue. A return to the regulation and control of the 1960s and 70s is not on the card however, unless there is a financial collapse, caused by some exogenous and unpredictable event.,
oldasiahand, Hong Kong,
Well said!
DB, akron, United states/ohio
I must say that this is a great country but we need to step back and look what we are leaving for our children an our children's children. global warming, loss of jobs, more poverty, over priced fuel in all areas,skyrocketing inflation, with no end in site, fuel prices leading to mist of the inflation. Tranportation of domestic goods. We need more tarriffs on imported goods and put the money to good use in the private sector to create new higher paying jobs for the less fortunate. This in turn creates more tax base in the federal gov. Help create more alternative fuels, and less independence on foreign oil. Less caos around the world mostly in the oil producing countries. Keep more of our tax money here in the states instead of giving it away to countries that would rather us get out of their countries and live them alone to live their lives with out all the turmoil.
Wally, Coffeyville, Ks.
"We used to have it all" [News review]
I think the major problem is House Price inflation.
Successive governments have been frightened to tackle this issue by say removing the green belt & capital gains tax exemption and offering that to encourage investment insustainable energy technology
Germany, with no property inflation, where manufacturing exports have risen 100% in the past 10 years to the far east the UK has matched this in terms of invisible exports but eventually we will be totally dependent on the city .
German engineering is respected worldwide and investment in education, trade apprentices etc attracts the best brains whereas in the UK the top graduates are sucked into the city.
Ultimately property is NOT a sustaining investment compared to say energy engineering and a highly geared work force is vulnerable to recession.
RICHARD DONALDSON, WINDSOR, UK
Many politicians over rthe whole world are saying lots of things to be elected, but are doing lots of other things once they made it.
Freddy de Graeve, gent, Belgium
good point on the use of the word "democrat" as opposed to "democratic" ....the new yorker has run a good article on the increasing use of "democrat" as an adjective (principally by the neocons)
as for protectionism..... sure tighten up the economy, keep jobs in America....just as long as you are willing to drive cars that are worse, pay more for your clothes and put up with higher unemployment that wage inflation will generate....
billy, dublin,
Carleen, the US continues to enjoy rapid economic growth and high wages and salaries. It still needs to import huge numbers of immigrants every year just to fil all the jobs that are going. Don't throw this away to protect old and badly-run corporations in Detroit etc. Protectionism didn't work for Herbert Hoover and it wouldn't work today.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
The adjective is "Democratic," not "Democrat." If you look at the actual record, rather than the rhetoric, you will find that the Democrats have generally been more open to adopting free trade policies than the Republicans, who talk a good game but are careful to protect their own little niches. NAFTA was ratified under Clinton; under Bush, protectionist policies have tried to protect American steel and paper and have effectively blocked efforts to open markets to South American sugar and orange juice. The last paragraph of this column is mere dogmatism -- the author doesn't have the slightest real idea as to how the next Democratic president would approach the issue.
Hugh Gordon, Ardmore, Pennsylvania
As an American who is watching the jobs that sustained the vast middle class in America disappear as corporations are moving their operations to overseas locations with cheap labor, cheaper materials, and no restrictions in operations due to the considerations of the environment or fair labor standards, I find it difficult to see the benefits of free trade markets. Like water seeking its own level, America's affluence is pouring overseas, with no care for the final result, it seems. Is it any wonder we're becoming protectionist?
Carleen Stephens, Battle Ground, USA/Washington
All true. You missed the turmoil that will come in industrial relations when the union bosses get to stretch out, not to mention the endless chain of NGO's with their zealotry for anything except economic growth.
Michael Kudla, Franklin, USA/NC