Gerard Baker: American view
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
Along with almost all intellectually gifted, sophisticatedly modern and environmentally conscious people, I was horrified last week when I first heard President Bush’s so-called proposals last week on global climate change ahead of the G8 summit this week in Germany.
How could he? After all the hopes placed in the world’s leadership for sensible policies to combat the greatest threat to our civilisation since Hannibal crossed the Alps? How could he let us down this time?
Of course, the reasons for my concern were somewhat different from those of the vast and expanding climate change lobby; all those hip young people from Greenpeace and all those teachers who want compulsory readings from Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth to replace morning assembly.
My concern was that, as it was initially presented, the proposals seemed to represent a genuinely alarming change of heart by Mr Bush.
After years of steadfastly resisting the insistent demands of the climate alarmists, of bravely ignoring the ridicule of the world’s media elites, Mr Bush was finally caving in. The talk from officials in Washington was all about the global scientific consensus on the need to reduce carbon emissions, about the need for international agreements. Over in Brussels C. Boyden Gray, Mr Bush’s sibilantly smooth Ambassador to the European Union, was out there on all the news programmes, confirming that, yes, this really was Mr Bush’s Damascene moment.
Fortunately, as the rest of the world quickly discovered to its horror, it took only a slightly more detailed perusal of the speech than Ambassador Gray had obviously given it to realise that this great capitulation by the United States was nothing of the sort. Mr Bush was not, after all, kneeling at the altar of the Church of Environmentally Aware Correctness and asking to be baptised anew in the healing waters of Kyoto-style targets and carbon emissions caps.
He was, in fact, to the disgust of the climate change lobby’s hierarchy, politely declining to join the Gadarene rush of European Union’s leadership into the economic abyss and, instead, largely repeating the only really sensible set of proposals to deal with the challenge.
The parties meeting at the G8 this week will do their best to hide their divisions on the subject, but there is no getting away from it. Europe remains intent, at least in its public declarations, to commit itself to policies that are based on what can only be called an ideology of climate change, a faith-based approach to long-term environmental policy, with scant reference to hard political and economic facts. The US has opted for pragmatism. The broad outlines of the American approach can be summarised as follows. Yes, global warming is a reality. Yes, it is caused in significant part by human activity and, yes, much of that is the result of the production of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide.
But, no, we will not sign up to targets that are either unattainable or meaningless, or worse, if taken seriously will prove economically self-immolating.
Into this category can certainly be put Angela Merkel’s plans for strict targets on global temperatures (can we also aim for compulsory targets on the number of wars, terrorist attacks and embarrassing defeats by our national football teams while we’re at it?)
No, we will not ignore the inescapable reality that three quarters of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next 50 years will be produced by developing countries, which means that, even if we reduced our own countries to a stone-age level of economic activity, we would make barely a dent in the scale of C02 emission concentrations in the atmosphere.
And so, yes, we will continue to place much hope (and quite a lot of our cash) in the rapidly expanding possibilities of technological change.
Early estimates for the US in 2006 show that emissions actually fell last year for the first time since 1991, and for the first time ever in a year when the US did not experience a recession. That suggests that American companies and consumers are already finding ways to trim their carbon footprint and to lower the carbon concentration of their economic activity. This progress would certainly be further assisted by good public policy, such as a carbon tax, a proposal many of the current crop of presidential candidates on both sides of the political divide, now favour.
Have you noticed, by the way, that Europeans like to sneer at the US for being antiscience and replacing the rule of reason with Biblical fundamentalism? In fact, almost all the really exciting new research into the technologies of emissions reduction, carbon capture and carbon sequestration are being done by clever scientists in the US.
Most of the dire warnings of the global climate change crowd are based on the most extreme projections of the impact of warming, combined with projections of absolutely no improvements in the technology that will help us deal with the challenge over the next century. You don’t have to be a sunny optimist to think that that gloom-laden scenario, wholly at odds with historical precedent, will prove to be more than a little off the mark.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
President Bushes change of heart may have something to do with the criticisms he recieves. While not taken them to heart or letting it become personal he listens. It's a nice quality, I think.
Dan, Manawa, Iowa
Discussing climage change in the currency of CO2 (or even all greenhouse gases) can only ever be a sub-plot to the main theme: climate is bloody (or even "joyfully") complex.
Most of the UK debate is hamstrung by the assumption that by having read (or more likely "heard about" / "had pummelled into one's brain") what the IPCC "thinks", one is educated on the topic.
Those of us who contend that we have something akin to scientific literateness about us (even if somewhat rusty) know otherwise: appeals to authority are not scienitifc.
And as the predictive capacity of climate modelling creeps above zero, it appears that we're in good company.
Anyone know of a Feynmanesque-type figure who could bring real science in all its glory alive again for the Feynman's of tomorrow?
Andrew Robinson, Norwich, UK
Look, the reason for or decrease and flat lining of Carbon Emmisions is fairly easy tp figure out, we have off-shored all the industries that pollute. Duh. The problem with this is as more and more manufacturing goes off shore we become more and more a debtor society. This will eventulally catch up to us. However, it is nice to stick it to Europe for a breif moment.
Regardless relize that the reason that we have not continued to pollute as much is because china is polluting more then ever. Not that CO2 should EVER be deemed any more a pollutant the Nitrogen or Oxygen or any of the other things that we have in our atmosphere that occurs natutally. Give me some Manufactured chemical that would not exist wthout man and, Yes that is a pullutant, but CO2, No.
Forrest, Murray, USA
Thomas M Murphy:
It does not "stand to reason" that moving the earth closer to the sun will make it warm significantly. The reason why you are warmer at the equator than at the poles - the example you cite - has almost nothing to do with being closer to the sun, and is largely to do with the angle of incidence of the sun's rays.
Tom Gilchrist, London,
Why is it that we never discuss the actual cause of global warming? It's the sun, stupid! Some of us even go south to get warm in the winter.
Professor Giegengack of the University of Pennsylvania has written extensively on the orbital mechanics of the solar system explaining that the gravitational pull of the planets can move the earth's orbit away or closer to the sun. If driving 1,500 miles to the south can change the temperature by 35 degrees fahrenheit, then pulling the earth a few hundred miles closer to the sun probably produces the same result.
The gloom and doom crowd totally disregards cause and effect. Correlation is all they need. Increased CO2 levels do not cause global warming. Global warming permits the CO2 levels to rise. Ask any scientist.
Thomas M. Murphy, Rockaway Point, New York
It's not global warming. It's solar (sun) warming - and it affects Mars, Jupiter and Saturn as well as Earth. Think on...
Terry Daly, London, UK
"Yes, global warming is a reality. Yes, it is caused in significant part by human activity and, yes, much of that is the result of the production of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide. " Does not really sound "questioning of climate change" to me.
Has anyone else noticed how our green lobby routinely trade in high emotion and higher rhetoric whilst avoiding specifics and solutions? Language betrays all - "disgrace", "reckless and mindless", "monumentally stupid". Maybe I am jaundiced but all I can hear is angry young men shouting "its obvious" "I could do better" "stop ignoring me""we don't have time for this debate, lets act!" "you don't agree with me so you must be corrupt" .
The wiser (older) contributors are asking "What specifically are you proposing?". This article is a good case in point. It is simply pointing out that there are no easy solutions. Indeed many of the proposed solutions would be worse than the current threats (yes something could be worse!!).
Noah, Knutsford, UK
One of the nice things about data as compared with opinion is that it's jolly hard to argue against. As the data on global warming accumulate the opinions that it's not real or that we shouldn't worry about it become progressively harder to maintain. It's a brick wall that's rapidly approaching, the passengers have noticed even though the driver insists it's not really there, hence the desire to wrench the steering wheel from the driver. The economic costs (as if that were the only measure of value) of not doing something far outweigh the costs of doing something. Someone has to do something, even if it's not perfect it's better than doing nothing and as the consequences pile up more countries will realise that it's in their own interests to reduce CO2 emissions.
John Small, Faversham, UK
Why is it that we never talk about the actual cause of global warming? It's the sun! Some of us even go south to get warm in the winter.
Professor Giegengack of the University of Pennsylvania has written extensively on the subject of orbital mechanics and how the gravitational pull of the planets can change the earth's orbit, sometimes pushing us out away from the sun and sometimes moving the earth in closer to the sun. If driving 1,500 miles to the south can produce a 35 degree fahrenheit change, it stands to reason that moving the entire earth a few hundred miles closer to the sun is bound to produce warming.
The doom and gloom crowd have no concept of cause and effect. They think correlation is all that matters. Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere do not cause global warming! Global warming, however, does permit the atmosphere to accept higher levels of CO2. Ask any scientist.
Thomas M. Murphy, Rockaway Point, New York
Its funny how the people who said global warming didn't exist, then said it did exist but i wasn't the fault of humans are now the ones who say there's no point in doing anything about it anyway! (usually the same people who claim a 'war' on terror IS winable)
Alex, leeds,
re: Sanjeev Dheer of Dehli, India -
Yes, but when will INDIA be "changing its mind" and signing on to emissions targets and reductions?
Never.
thanks
R.B. Glennie, Ottawa, Canada
Splutter into your corn flakes if you must but, have you actually considered that Bush might actually be right? Even he cannot be wrong all of the time.
On a side matter for European opinion, what will happen if/when the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis and its absurd empasis on Carbon Dioxide rather than population is proven to be a load of hot air? Will we be then entitled to a refund of all the 'green' taxes that have been raised by Brown, Merkell et al ?
Brian Vallance, LEFKIMMI, Greece
This article is complete hogwash. Why do people still question climate change? Why do people still place economic short term targets ahead of saving the planet - are we still selfish even when we know the long term consequences?
It is a disgrace that the USA has caved in to lobby groups such as Detroit carmakers whose cars are put to shame by Toyota/Honda. Global warming will be Bush's legacy even more than Iraq, and history will not treat him kindly. Fortunately history will forget Gerard Baker...
Jonathan, Sydney, Australia
The UK has just had its warmest spring since 1945. The planet Venus does not have a magnetic field and it's atmosphere is consequently selectively eroded by the solar wind. To compare the climate change of Venus to that of the Earth is misguided. Climate change is a natural thing and so is political dogma. Europe will bankrupt itself trying to control the climate while the developing countries carry on building their economies. Who needs to be worried about the threat of terrorism when the greater threat to our wellbeing lies with our politicians?
Adrianjs, Farnborough, UK
"Have you noticed, by the way, that Europeans like to sneer at the US for being antiscience and replacing the rule of reason with Biblical fundamentalism?"
Yes, that's because the Bush administration and it's supporters (such as yourself) have for years tried to claim that climate change does not exist. This was monumentally stupid thing to do.
Even in admitting the truth, you still can't bring yourself to be nice to other people, can you?
Owen, London, UK
The threat of Global warming has at last changed the heart and thoughts of Prez Bush. For years together, he either took an Oestrich approach to evade the problem, albeit accepting it as a global threat for our man kind , or else putting the blame on nature and its fickle changes in making. Putting forth his proposal ahead of G8 summit, is a right step taken in right direction , provided it is implemented in its letter and spirit. We are all responsible for emission of green house gases, overusage of fossilised fuel , reckless and mindless deforestation. We are denuding our planet of its vital natural resources and converting our tropical jungles and green lungs into jungles of concrete, bricks and mortars. Emission of nuclear wastes and non-degradable garbage like plastics, polymers etc. creates cracks and slits in our atmospheric ozone layers.Global warming is a man made gift , causing famines,deluge and tsunamis with freak weather conditions.It's time to wake up, or else regret!!!
Sanjeev Dheer, New Delhi, India