Gerard Baker
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On hearing that I come from that benighted place called Washington, the question on everybody’s lips as I travelled in Europe this summer was: who’s going to win the election?
The first thing to be said is that this is a distinct improvement on the past five years. For most of that time, the revelation that I lived and worked in America’s capital would generally elicit a clouded look of concern from my interlocutor, a whispered word of sympathy or encouragement, as though perhaps I might be seeking political asylum from the hellhole of militant nationalism, capitalist exploitation and religious bigotry that is George Bush’s America.
I’ve no doubt that the new response, the keen interest in the identity of the next president, reflects a yearning to be rid of the current one. But at least it means that, however briefly, the rest of the world is thinking the same way as America. Given the vagaries of electoral politics, and that we are still almost 15 months from election day, it’s not a question that I would normally feel comfortable answering. But the campaign has been in something like full swing for almost a year. What’s more, the early start is matched, at least in the primaries (the phase of the election in which voters in the two main parties separately select their candidate), by an early finish. We are probably less than six months from knowing the identities of the two main candidates.
So it’s a reasonable time to hazard some guesses about what the campaign has taught us so far. This week, I’ll start with the Democrats, the big favourites to win next year.
The most obvious and important fact we have learnt is that Hillary Clinton has firmly cemented her position as the prohibitive favourite to win the Democratic nomination, and with it the presidency.
Even occasional readers of this column will know that she has never been a favourite of mine. Prohibitive, yes; favourite, definitely not. I continue to find the ease with which she has sacrificed her principles on everything of importance, the makeover from radical feminist to soft-focused mother and devoted wife, from V-sign-waving peacenik to hawkish warmonger, all a little chilling even for my slightly cynical tastes.
But the truth is that no one ever lost money underestimating the credulity of voters. And to be fair for a moment, even I would have to acknowledge that Bill Clinton’s First Lady (though, assuredly not his last), on the evidence of the campaign so far at least, deserves her lead.
If a Martian were to come down and follow the main candidates for a few days he would wonder why there was any question at all why Mrs Clinton should not be the anointed Democrat. Through the numerous debates, and on the stump across the country it is evident that she is the most knowledgeable, experienced and disciplined. Most of the time, like a Queen Elizabeth I or a Margaret Thatcher, she easily dominates the inferior men shuffling around her.
But she has not quite sealed the deal yet. Though her opinion poll lead among Democratic primary voters has widened in the past month or two, in the more important polls that measure popularity in the early primary states, her lead is narrower, or even disappears completely. She remains unpopular with many Americans.
So all the while, a faint patter of hope continues to beat in the hearts of the men in her wake. Barack Obama remains the closest challenger. The 46-year-old son of a black African and a Caucasian American continues to generate an excitement rare in political circles.
To be frank, that same Martian would have to wonder what exactly all the fuss was about the Illinois senator. His campaign has been, in substance, quite underwhelming. For all the luminous media coverage, the endless comparisons with John F. Kennedy, Mr Obama remains an oddly unconvincing world saviour. Watching him, you are struck by a sharp contradiction. There is Obama the Phenomenon – the Ideal, the Hope-Giver, the avatar of political change, national renewal and racial unity. Then there is Obama the man, the speaker with a rather pedestrian style, seemingly hobbled by caution. If he weren’t young and black, let’s be honest, he would be considered quite dull.
And this is before you even get to his biggest flaw – his lack of any real governing experience. In the past couple of weeks he has been in trouble over a couple of statements on foreign policy that his opponents seized on as evidence of his woeful unsuitability for high office.
In the first he said, that if he were President, he would sit down and talk with leaders of rogue states around the world. In the second, he said that if he had actionable intelligence that al-Qaeda were planning attacks inside Pakistan, and if the authorities in Islamabad refused to move, he would authorise US military action against the enemy.
This twin commitment earned him what may be the most memorable putdown of the campaign so far, when one of the Republican candidates said you didn’t know where you stood with Obama – one day he was Jane Fonda, the next Dr Strangelove.
There was, substantively, nothing much wrong – or even very new – in what Mr Obama said. For Democrats and even some Republicans, talking with the leaders of unpleasant regimes is now seen as a necessary shift in US diplomacy, and no one in his right mind would really outsource American national security to the whims of the Government in Pakistan. But it somehow played into the perception of Mr Obama as not ready to be leader of the nation in a dangerous world.
The third main Democratic contender is John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator. He continues to run a campaign larded with a hypocrisy and opportunism that make Mrs Clinton look like St Thomas More. He berates the exploitation of America’s workers by evil global capitalists, then pops out of the picket line for a $400 haircut, paid for with money he earned in the past few years representing hedge funds as a wealthy lawyer.
He trails the other two candidates in the polls, but is staking all on a big win in an early contest – Iowa, probably – to propel him to a stunning nationwide victory.
The rest of the Democratic field – it would be doing unacceptable violence to the English language to call them hopefuls or contenders – continue to roam the country looking for scraps of comfort to sustain them in their pointless journey. For most of them now the campaign seems to be about auditioning for a spot in Mrs Clinton’s Administration.
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For those doubting that a woman could become the next President, just take a look of the electoral map in 2008. Mrs. Clinton could hold all the blue states that Kerry won against an incumbent president in 2004. She will win Arkansas and Indiana, two red states, if she chooses Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana as a running mate. Then, all she has to do is to win either Nevada or New Mexico, then she will have 274 electoral votes. The electoral college math does favor her, especially if she chooses the telegenic and dynamic Mr. Bayh as her running mate. In this likely scenario, Mrs. Clinton does not have to win Florida or Ohio, even though in Ohio, she will be very competitive if Mr. Bayh is her running mate. If she does win in Ohio, that would be almost an electoral landslide for Mrs. Clinton.
James R, Santa Clara, CA
An American President must be awfully good at herding cats.
Daedalus, Cohasset, Massachusetts, USA
As someone who voted for the Democrat Presidential candidate the last 3 elections, I will NEVER vote for Hillary. She personifies a politician in every negative way. I will vote Republican if she is the Democrat nominee.
BTW, my State, governed by a Dem and with a Dem controlled House and Senate is still without a State budget, causing the taxpayers more money because of Dem in-fighting. They're a disgrace!
Mary Catherine, Elmhurst, US/IL
The same anti-Hillary or ABH folks rush in here and all other comments sections of web news articles with their baseless attacks on Hillary, lacking substance in their arguments, and simply go after her for personal reasons that have little to do with governing. And they do it with self-righteous propaganda designed to make folks considering voting for her to feel that there is something wrong with her when there is little evidence of that. Hillary Clinton has proved to be a highly intelligent, competent and adept candidate who presents herself as someone who would be a fine head of State -- and she's done the great majority of it all without the help of President Clinton.
I'm all for people exercising their freedom of speech. But to those folks who are in the middle of deciding who their candidate is, please do not base your judgement of Sen. Clinton on specious arguments and propaganda. Clinton is a solid person with a clear ability to be an effective leader of this country.
Rick, Orlando, Florida, USA
Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. Guiliani will win for the GOP.
Then it'll be a 50-50 race, with a very narrow split on Election Day. The public is not too pleased with the Democratic-controlled Congress, whose ratings are in free fall. Bush's ratings are low (though up a bit from their nadir) but he isn't running in 2008. No such mercy awaits Congress.
The odds against Senator Clinton are about 5-4, I'd say. She has high negatives, but they're highest among people who'd still vote Republican if the Democrats were running Jesus Christ and the Republicans had Satan at the head of the ticket and Beelzebub for VP.
I'm a Democrat myself, so of course I hope Senator Clinton wins, but it would almost be worth Guiliani in the White House just to see the long faces and hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the other side of the pond.
Europeans (the people cut off on the other side of the Channel) just don't understand American politics well.
S.M. Stirling, Santa Fe, NM
Hillary remains in first place amongst Democrats who have failed to understand the issue associated with her healthcare initiative during the 1990's.
One of the most divisive and potent issues in American and perhaps British society, is the impact that a mandatory vaccination schedule which systematically injected more than hazardous waste concentrations (EPA definition) of mercury into neonates has had on our children's health. The British also wrestle with this issue, but the distinction is that the British never went out of their way (as did Hillary and her minion, Donna Shalala) to create programs which essentially duped and forced vaccination with extremely toxic solutions on infants. The resulting autism, type I diabetes, asthma and related immune disease states or conditions suffered by our children has yet to be addressed.
And Hillary either dissembles or remains silent to avoid discussing her primary role in causing this horrendous sordid debacle.
P. Badios, Minnetonka, Minnesota
A new day is coming! This is the peoples movement and the people will speak loudly to those extremists from both parties
who would tear this country apart with their petty bickering, enough is enough. We will not Yield!
Obama 08!
Jimmie, Beavercreek, US
As European (Dutch actually) I think that many Europeans wait for a Democrat to be elected as president. Most Europeans simply don't know the other contenders in both parties. What is really interesting that even many Europeans dislike Hillary and know her reputation of 'power above principles at any price'. She's not popular over here but just someone else than Bush and not a republican. Internationally Bush has become 'the GOP'. That's the only reason many Europeans think that Hillary should be president.
It did not surprise me that every European who I met and watched the campaign a bit better would vote for Obama. He brings hope, has sound ideas and has experience (as state senator). Yes, Hillary attacked him and he reacted. But we need to keep in mind that Hillary attacked Obama at viewpoints she had defended before!
The rest of the world hopes for a democrat as president. I hope the party will have a candidate that will be elected, not hated. So; Obama, not Hillary.
Johannes, Roodeschool, Netherlands
We hear so much about Hillary's "experience," yet she's running based not on her own accomplishments but that of her husband.
The most important thing she's ever run- her health care force- was a complete disaster. It was a job she got not because she knew anything at all about the issue, but one that she got simply because she's Bill's wife. Thanks to her efforts, her party lost the House for the 1st time in forty years and yet, she's still considered a superstar.
The most important vote she ever cast was the Iraq war. On that, she has repeated zigged and zagged, trying to confuse everyone on where she really stands.
Democrats sneer at Bush, suggesting that he only got where he did simply because of who his father is, at the same time many of them cheer on Hillary because she's Bill's wife.
After eight years of complaining about the failed Bush presidency, they are prepared to make the same mistake with Hillary. Brilliant, just brilliant...
Gary Mottola, Brooklyn, NY
Why do so many of us especially in the military dislike Hillary? Lets start with the most crooked administration in history, firing her traveling office to put all her friends in. Or how bout the FBI that were lost and found on her desk of Republican rivals. Or the 1000 dollar investment a week later turns into 100,000 can you say insider trading? Cut our military to the bone. This soldier will stay a Republican for life as 95% of us are. Times is a liberal rag, Democrats are pitiful.
B Co 1/71st Avn
CW2 Sean, , Overseas
Hillary Clinton had no reservations about sending the children of other women to die for the sake of promoting her political ambitions. She used her support for the war to position herself for a presidential race. Please remember that she not only voted to authorize the President to use force, she posed with Rumsfeld to demonstrate that she backed the decision to invade once it was made. Given that the Clintons are perpetually politically motivated, my fear is that Hillary would start running for re-election the day she is inaugurated. Then what kind of cmpromises can we expect? Whose children will go next, and for what purpose, other than her ambition? I don't trust her and can't support her.
D Shaw, Wellfleet, Massachusetts
I'm so sick of all this talk about Hillary and Obama. I, at one time, liked Hillary, until I started to watch her in debates and study her on the issues. She is fickle. She doesn't know what she even stands for. I don't care that she was in the White House as First Lady, or that her husband is Bill Clinton, or even that she is a "superstar" as the media says. She can't cut it. Obama is too inexperienced and it shows in all these debates. He's getting killed. President of the United States is not an entry level position. And he's no JFK! The media is what has these two in the lead because they shove them down our throats and it's not right. I want someone who is experienced, knowledgable, strong, honest and up front. Why not Joe Biden?? I want Joe Biden!! He has killed them all in every debate and he knows the issues, especially foreign policy, which we need in this time, like the back of his hand. Biden is what we need. I wish everyone (press included) would see it! VOTE FOR BIDEN!!!
Derrick, Oliver Springs, TN
If you think Hilary will bring America what it needs I would recommend not walking around in everyday life unsupervised. The Lib's will choose her as their champion negelcting the fact that she has a pathetic excuse of a track record on issues that will directly effect the country. (security, spending, healthcare, immigration, and the list goes on and on) I will be glad to see even the weakest Republican beat her.........She is my choice for a a front runner!!! :)
Sam, Dallas, TX
Quite scary to note some of the comments from, mainly, right leaning Americans in response to the article. This almost irrational personal dislike of Hillary Clinton is quite baffling considering the disaster that has been the George W Bush presidency.
Hillary Clinton, like all other candidates (Democrat or Republican) certainly has her shortcomings, but to suggest that she is a "far left" candidate who is intent on bringing "socialism" to the US is ridiculous beyond belief and does not even merit a serious response.
Sad to see that the spirit of paranoid anti-anything not ultra right-wing McCarthyism still lingers in parts of America.
Paul, London,
"the ease with which she has sacrificed her principles"
We are discussing a politician aren't we? The only principle that matters is "How can I continue to convince the voters to fund my lifestyle?"
As for Edwards - "He berates the exploitation of Americaâs workers by evil global capitalists". America became the alma mater of global capitalists when the old European colonial powers lost their footing after WW2. For years after that conflict the US was the only intact and undamaged industrial base on the planet. Or is he just berating the rest of us for having the temerity to re-build our industry and compete on an equal footing?
KR, Stockport,
Our friend from Baltimore is touchingly naive. "Everything will be better and all the right people will be doing all the right things when we get rid of those evil cretins from the other party." Riiight.
It's practically a trope of the Left these days--even the most crooked Democrat or Labourite seems constitutionally incapable of taking office without promising to be "the most ethical and open and honest ever!" Clinton I, Blair, Pelosi all promised it. Somehow the mere fact that their exalted selves are now in charge is supposed to guarantee impeccability and wonderfulness. Narcissus had nothing on these people.
And what of those who choose to drink their Kool-Aid? I do not envy their inevitable disappointment when St. Hillary (or whoever) ushers in her own cast of "buffoonish ideologues and hapless...cronies". But if it is a Democratic president, there is at least a good chance that the ideologues and cronies will be the netroots' own this time...and that might just do for them.
Kevin M. James, Watkinsville, Georgia, USA
seems to me that america wants a change, but that the democratic candidates are a bit of a let down. it's a choice between a dull puppet and an untrustworthy powermonger.
whilst the party might favour the powermonger, the country surely won't. lucky there's some good republican candidates, eh? I expect a few democrats would vote for one of them rather than hillary, too.
jem, london, uk
"Why are people so afraid of Hillary?"
Because she's a power-mad maniac. There is no position she will not espouse, no person she will not defame and no crime she won't commit to gain power.
"I continue to find the ease with which she has sacrificed her principles...a little chilling even for my slightly cynical tastes"
That's not the half of it. She's our version of Vladimir Putin.
K T Cat, San Diego, CA
Mrs. Clinton has no experience whatsoever in living and interacting with people of the Muslim faith. Mr. Obama lived as a youth in Indonesia.
Governing experience??? Mrs. Clinton slept with the president (but many other women may be able to make the same claim), and her great contribution to America was botching at attempt at healthcare reform -- a job she got because of whom she married.
The most qualified man on the Democratic side is Governor Bill Richardson whose resume is even longer than Mr. Baker's article. Unfortunately, the unwillingness of the American (and now it seems British) media to do any homework on the candidates means he isn't considered a contender.
Jeff Myhre, New York City, USA
I'm shocked - shocked! - to find that Hillary Clinton changes her views. This is so unlike Mitt Romney, a social liberal and economic moderate when he won election as governor of the liberal state of Massachusetts, now as right wing on everything as Bush himself. Or John McCain, who now says he was always critical of the insane way Bush managed the Iraq war, but who kept his mouth shut when it counted. Or Fred Thompson, a lobbyist for a pro-choice group in the early 90's, now a staunch anti-abortionist. Or Newt Gingrich, the pro-family multiple adulterer. Does Baker's rage about hypocrisy extend to this group? I doubt it.
Stanley Jacobs, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Tend to agree with all you say. To me Hilary is too much the full time member of the east coast liberal elite. As such she lacks her husband's ability to communicate with ordinary people. And there is so much baggage from the previous Clinton occupation of the White House to endear her to many voters.
As far as Obama is concerned he is just too much the lightweight - his books are so full of pious platitudes that it's a wonder they don't float off the bookshelf. And, sorry to say, if he wasn't black would he be getting anywhere near the media attention he has received so far.
Pity the Democrat voter at the forthcoming polls.
Hugh, London,
Mr. Baker,
Despite Barack Obamas perceived "inexperience", I believe that he has one thing that sets him apart from the rest-a willingness to say what is really on his mind. Unlike "The Hillster", who will flagrantly schmooze whatever group she happens to be speaking in front of at the time, Obama comes across as fresh and sincere, even though he needs to polish his public persona a bit. Over the coming months, I believe that he will hone his skills, and God save us all, beat that scheming megalomaniacal viper, Hillary. For if she wins the Presidency, you Brits, (and the rest of the world for that matter), better lash to for a rotten squall, because she will finish the job President Bush and his Rasputin Dick Cheney have started, and firmly plunge us into a new Dark Age. Best of Luck, and God Bless all in the U.K.
Michael E. Sullivan, Litchfield, USA Ohio
Good grief, I'd be shocked out of my socks if she WASN'T leading. I mean, have you ever seen such a poor collection of Democratic presidential candidates? John Edwards has little experience and wouldn't even be considered if Kerry hadn't plucked him from relative obscurity. Besides, Edwards has transformed himself so radically from moderate Dem to hysterical populist that the last voters to vote for him wouldn't recognize him. Good luck, John, relying on Netroots to get you elected. Obama is even less experienced, and prone to foot-in-mouth disease to boot. His infelicitous remarks about Pakistan were either desperation or incompetence. Hillary isn't a great debater, but they make her seem statesman-like and so she's been wiping the floor with them.
I'm not a Republican, but at least their candidates are relatively battle-hardened, having run not only campaigns but major cities, committees galore, or a state (Guiliani, McCain, Romney).
T. Kehler, Vancouver, BC
Since we seem to be self-destructing under this administration, I don't think we can afford the "none of the above" position that American voters have been known to take.
We don't have to "like" our president or our doctor. We just need someone who can get the country back on track or save our life, as the case might be. I think Hillary is the best bet for president, even if she doesn't bake cookies.
Ruth Shoer, Pittsburg, Ks.
Hillary Clinton is just another Dem that says anything that the people may want to hear on any given day. She changes her colors so much she should have been born a chameleon. I can only hope that the American people are not so foolish to buy into her lies when the real elections begin.She has given no real plan for anything, except to try and undermine everything this country stands for. If she is elected, instead of saying ''God Bless the USA!" we will be saying "May the Almighty dollar bless the USSA (United Socialist States of America)"
Robert, Baltimore, USA
Enough on Edwards haircut. Some years ago there was a Democrat running for president as a populist. He too was rich. He had not just one mansion but two.One for summer,one for winter. His hobby was yacti,about the most elitist sport there is.He won. That would be FDR.Edwards is autentic.He is rich but was not always so and he actually cares and has a plan to help us mere mortals.
Bill Scanlan, sebastopol, CA
Clinton, great President ! come on just another poll driven political opportunist that not only sullied the reputation of presidency with monica but ignored terrorism,pardoned his way out of the white house then left with the furniture. he paid down the debt by raiseing my taxes through the roof at least Bush is doing with tax cuts despite inheriting a weak economy,
9-11 and katrina plus fighting terrorism. fortunately for you Jan in New Hamshire stan history will probably get it right and with a little more perspective than this current generation, worked for Churhhill, Lincoln and Truman .
charlie, la habra, usa / calif
I generally avoid anecdotal evidence, but here goes. My wife has quite a large extended family in mid-America "blue" country. That is, they are folks in farm country who have been staunch Democrats for generations, not for the usual coastal social-policy reasons, but because of governent largesse handed out in lingering farm programs. These folks would normally not even care who is running for the "opposing" ticket. Pulling the "All Dem" lever is a matter of reflex. But, to a man and woman they refuse to consider Hillary Clinton as a viable choice and expect, for the first time their lives, to vote Republican.
Note that Mr. Baker says, "the Democrats, [are] the big favourites to win next year." Leaving the anecdotal and discussing poling, in general generic polling (i.e., one that pits the generic Dem against the generic Republican) shows the Dem to be the winner. But, increasingly, polls comparing HIllary vs. the Repubulican front-runnner (Giuliani) shows Hillary well behind.
dssf, Santa Fe, NM, USA
Oh please lighten up everyone. However, if a Martian does arrive to watch the elections would you ask him or her to contact me. I would like to know what happened to Captain Jet Morgan, Doc, Mitch and Lemmey from the radio series, 'Journey into Space'.
Rodney Barker, Gainsborough, England U.K.
Hillary Clinton is the best candidate. She outshines all of the others in debates and in media interviews (I watched a particularly compelling interview on the mortgage market and lending on the net the other day). She knows policy in great detail and can explain these issues in a way that connects with voters. The "too ambitious to be president" meme has a very blatant subtext, namely how dare "the uppity woman go for a man's job." She beats all the Republican's in match ups. Strangely even 58% of Republican's consider her a role model for women. She polls very highly in terms of leadership and experience. The negatives are predictable given both her gender and the long campaign waged against her and her husband (read right-wing blogs/watch Fox and listen to Limbaugh), hence her statement that "she is the most famous person you don't really know" ...in fact as demonstrated among New York republicans when people get to know her, her negatives go down.
Justine, Dublin, Ireland.
Joanne from Charleston SC reflects the views of her home state. Just visit the South Carolina State House and see the official, glowing monuments to the culture of slavery and Jim Crow laws. The Confederate battle flag waves proudly over the State House grounds and that land of bigotry.
Al Smith, Burlington, VT
Well What I personally feel that whenever there is democrates in power in US its a kind of trinquilizing situation around the globe without any aggression in the name of showing superiority to the poor nations, specially the Muslim world. But on the contrary, the Republicans are more harsh in their approach towards the rest of the world. That's y I feel that the US citizens would surly like to see democrates in the driving seat, as they want to see more developing and progressing US instead of more authoritarian US in the eyes of the world. I would say VERY BEST OF LUCK to Hillary.......
Raja Umar, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
I don't see an experience gap between Hillary and Obama. Hillary joined the US Senate in 2000, but it was her first elected position. Obama became a US senator in 2004, but he was an Illinios State senator for 8 years before that.
Joseph, NYC, USA
I recently expressed my veiled opinion of Hillary to a female CEO of a very visible company. She surprised me by asking me why I didn't like her. It was refreshing. I come from a deep blue part of America where any criticism of Hillary is met with political correct shock and horror. Of course, the CEO is also not American so not so shackled by our political correctness.
The fact that I demurred by questioning her character rather than firmly assaulting her socialist policies and ideas later caused me shame.
This scenario will replay in the US many times over the next year. The sooner all of us speak openly of her absolute lack of credentials, her socialist mentality, her willingness to sacrifice people, the truth, and principle in the pursuit of power.- the sooner the Empress Has No Clothes.
michael standard, san francisco, ca
Hillary, we need her like Africa needs another Mugabe. You europeans seem so enthralled and delighted by her. It must be the big government mentality over there.
Rich P., Milwaukee, USA, Wisconsin
Contrary to what a poster above said, Clinton has outpolled Giuliani in several poll, but then he's outpolled her too. Given her campaigning skills, the political landscape where the Democrats have a generic advantage of 12-15% depending on the poll, and Rudy's baggage, she has to the prohibitive favorite. I also suspect that the more people see of her the more they are going to like her while the reverse is true of Rudy who definitely has an abrasive persona. He's also saying some very odd things like a long article he's just published in the journal Foreign Affairs. Finally there's Bill, the rock star, and the American appetite for novelty. If I had to bet a thousand pounds today it would be on her.
John, Hartford, USA
I must say that I've read a lot about Hillary, from her socialist college days to her attempt to push universal healthcare on the American people during hubby's first term, she's a socialist through and through. As Europe tries to get away from what's dragging them down (social welfare to the extreme), Democrats (especially Hillary) are trying to drag us that way. Sounding like Hugo Chavez with her threats to take Exxon's profits, Americans will elect her only if she hides herself well. Luckily, the Internet won't allow that to happen (hopefully!!)
Deborah Durkee, Marietta, GA, USA
Hilary has been chomping at the bit ever since her husband became president. She thought she was the president... remember she even said we got two for the price of one when Bill was elected. Anyone who wants to be president that bad is obviously too power hungry to be entrusted with that kind of executive privelege.
Paul, Chicago, USA IL
"Are there no Republicans running for President? My understanding is that out of dozens of polls Hillary has out-polled Guilliani only once. Would the Europeans be interested to know that?"
hillary beats rude-dee and every rethug in every national poll and there have been several. she even beats him in the fox-snooze poll. as a matter of fact, every leading dem beats every leading rethug in every recent poll.
bush and rove have destroyed the rethug brand for years to come.
joker, new york, ny
reader I would rather see Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, or Ron Paul President before any of the so-called major contenders.
Jeffrey G, Yuba-Sutter, CA
Hillary is leading because she has been virtually unchallenged by the media and the spineless cowards running against her for the nomination. AND even with that, she still clocks a 50% unfavorable fifteen months out from the election.
Once Queen Hitlery secures the nomination all bets are off. She'll have to answer for her liberal voting record, her scandalous past (Vince Foster, Travelgate, Whitewater and her brother's divorce from Barbara Boxer's daughter) and her shrill attacks on conservatives including the President. The gloves will come off and she won't look so inevitable anymore.
Andrew Souter, Newark, NJ
If Martians came down to observe the US presidential election, they would have to conclude that the two leading candidates are Barack Obama and Ron Paul. They are the only candidates generating any kind of enthusiasm among their supporters, or drawing large crowds.
The only places Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lead is in telephone polls of people who barely know who is running, and among wealthy individuals who can write $2300 checks without batting an eyelash.
Doug, Lake Forest, California
At a time when Democrats should be in the ascendancy they bring forth Hillary (widely disliked and unelectable) and Obama (whose popularity stems from the same impulse that makes an African American candidate a shoo-in in a high school student body election). John Edwards has become a joke,"the Breck Girl", Joe Biden is a plagarist and too full of himself by far and all the rest are "who?"
Gird for Giuliani or Thompson. Terrorists and other wackos you ain't seen nothing yet.
MasonJahr, Loma Rica, California, USA
From your comments, Mr. Gerard Baker, it is quite obvious you know little of American primary election. In the primary, early states most of the time have disproportionate influence. So a lead in the national poll almost always does not mean much. Does anybody edit your racist rants "inferior men shuffling around her" "If he werenât young and black" ? Can you tell us what is her "biggest asset" â "real governing experience" maybe? I
Anti racist, washington,
You criticise Obama's lack of governing experience. Remind me exactly how much governing experience Hillary has of her own...?
Brian, London,
Thanks for confirming my perception of the Dem's field of choices. It is sad but true that Hillary is the best Democratic candidate, only thing sadder is the universal disgust over our current president.
The general election will still be a crap shoot since many voters won't vote for a female or a black, or for that matter any Republican. I'm not sure if we're voting for who we want or who we don't!
David Camp, Raleigh, NC
Mrs. Clinton owes her solid lead to her accurate reading of the public, which yearns for change and compares her husband's presidency very favorably with Mr. Bush's, but is wary of entrusting its security to a woman (as every GOP strategist surely knows). Hence the hard line on defence. Pro that she is, she also knows it would be foolish to leave hostages to fortune by setting out detailed policy on any issue, including Iraq, 15 months before voting day. As for her supposed gyrations ("from V-sign-waving peacenik to hawkish warmonger"), this is an absurd caricature of who Mrs. Clinton now is and once was: she started out in politics as a Goldwater Girl, for heaven's sake!
Tariq, Toronto, Canada
I think Mike is right to point that out. All of the generic Democrat versus generic Republican polls show a Democrat win, but when the actual candidates are used Clinton fares badly, which is a shame. She was quite the pragmatist in the Senate.
Tim, Horsham, Sussex
I am a jaded republican ..... we mortgaged our children's future for two wars. No matter what we do in Iraq, the rest of the world look upon us as villains. I now believe Sadam would have killed Al Qeida much like he was killing all the muslim extremist in Iraq. I'll give Hillary a try .... she surely can't be any worse than GWB.
Ed, SF, USA
Yes, Hillary will be nominated as the Democratic candidate. And then, because the American electorate is too conservative ever to elect a woman, we will be saddled with yet another Republican president. The same logic applies to Obama. Sickening, isn't it?
Erik, Cape Town,
I would rather vote for Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, or Ron Paul for President before any of the so-called major contenders.
Jeffrey G, Yuba-Sutter, CA
I'm a Clinton supporter and I always find the comments about her amusing -- especially from the loud, obnoxious, indefatiguable, petty, childish, angry, lying Clinton Haters.
Hillary is leading the entire Democratic field AND she is leading the entire Republican field
And yet, in the face of FACTS, Clinton Haters are still feebling promising us that "she can't win."
Baloney.
As far as Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton...
Here's the opinion of the MAJORITY of Americans:
Bush -- bad Presient
Clinton - great President
Bush - The. Worst. President. Ever.
Another Clinton - bad????????? bah!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jan, Nashua, NH
There are many ways of looking at the President of the Future.
I prefer to look at who has most amount of funding. This indicates the number of supporters and their belief in who is likely to win. If I were donating I would donate to the one person, who in my opinion would make the best President.
Hillary Clinton has put forward the best policies, has the best team and is currently a Senator who increased her majority. She has lived through many hardships and has shown her nerve and courage.
Her health care plan was well planned and thought out but presented at the wrong time. I wish her luck this time round.
America is one of the richest country in the world without a safety net for the poor and the ill. It's life expectancy is 45 globally. If Hillary Clinton's Health Care plan had been approved Americans would have been living longer by a good few years.
The Clear and undisputed winner is Former First Lady Hillary R. Clinton.
Sarjeet S. Gill, Lecturer in Health Science, Darwin, Australia
Mike's point is important. Generic democrat versus generic republican polls show a democrat win, but when actual candidates are used Clinton fares badly, which is a shame. She was quite the pragmatist in the Senate
Tim, Horsham,
Why is it that so many Americans display this amazing paranoia when it comes to assessing Hillary Clinton? Some of these e-mails seem to come straight from "The Manchurian Candidate" or "The Invasion of the Body-Snatchers". And Gerard, is her opportunism really any worse than that of any other democratic politician? From my vantage point, she looks like a hard working person of generally moderate views.
David, Kingston, Ontario
The whole of the media is going all out for Hillary. The whole thing is a charade. 4 or 8 more years of the Bush/Clinton dynasty is not what the American people need.
It doesn't matter what the polls says, it's not important. What matters is the outcomes in the day of the votes.
If Obama, can do well in Iowa and New Hampshire and he carry's the Black vote in SC, then he will WIN.
Keith Lapedia, Arlington, VA, USA
Get a grip, Stan. If Hillary is mouthing idiocies to disguise her leftiness, she must be saying things you approve of.
Hillary Clinton will bring America what it needs: not radical transformation but a period of good government. You won't see government departments and federal agencies stacked with buffoonish ideologues and hapless Bush cronies whose only qualification for office is political loyalty.
Michael Williams, Baltimore, USA
Are there no Republicans running for President? My understanding is that out of dozens of polls Hillary has out-polled Guilliani only once. Would the Europeans be interested to know that?
mike sorensen, Las Vegas, nv
Mike - the author of the article said he was focusing on the Dems this week; no doubt he'll look at the Republicans next week.
Gareth Quested, Surrey,
<<If he werenât young and black, letâs be honest, he would be considered quite dull.>> du deja entendu
william pascal, london,
Why are people so afraid of Hilary? I would vote for her in a heartbeat. I am tired and sick of another Republican-led White House. Her Presidency will be certainly much better than that of Mr. Bush.
James Richards, Santa Clara, USA
ran out of room. am adding.
Obama has alot of detailed policy as does Edwards. Hillary has yet to present any. She has no policy and never says what she is going to do. She is given a pass and is presented as substantive and experienced.
Her experience is being first lady! no substance either.
obama has 8 years in the Illinois senate.
Eventually, when people begin to pay attention after labor day, they will remember why they hated Hillary in the 90s.
I have no doubt Obama will best her in the end.
dlake, machesney park, USA
The very quality that makes Mrs. Clinton so personally disagreeable, her single minded ruthlessness, may be what we need to prosecute World War IV. That quality is also to be found in Rudy Giuliani. Either of them is quite capable of deciding that more rubble means less trouble. So far the United States has responded to the war launched against it with politically correct attentiveness to the feelings of our enemies and has not unleashed its full military might. The next President may not be so tender hearted.
Stephen Rittenberg, Larchmont, USA/ New York
Obama is the best candidate period. Lack of experience equals a fresh outlook, and he is easily the most intelligent of the candidates. The republicans want Hillary to get the nomination, that should tell you something. She plays the same old games, says the same old things, and is dull as hell. Obama will be president of the U.S. either in 2008, or in the somewhat near future. Anyone who can't see that is missing the boat. America is going through some big changes, and we need a president who understands this. Barack all the way.
Jerry, Denver, USA
Hiily is first and foremost a Clinton--what she says is irrelevant by the time the next opinion poll is taken. Her soul went spiraling into the abyss along with her husbands. Her only qualification for the office is that she thinks she's entitled to it.
John, St. Charles, IL
I still have faith that the majority of people in the United States have not lost their minds. Hillary is fickle and scary.
Jim, lake city, Tn
I am American and you are really off base here. Though Hillary shows a lead in national polling, she is highly unpopular with the majority of Americans and especially with the blog community.
party leaders are concerned she will be nominated as she is so polarizing she would lose the races for those democrats down ticket.
she would also lose the general election.
What is driving Hillary's race right now is a poodle press that is trying to shove her down our throats and swiftboat Obama.
who ever heard of someone getting boo'd winning a debate but, somehow the press managed to do so.
Obama gave a foreign policy speech that was amazing. Problem was the press never bothered to listen to it and took it for granted the crap Hillary's campaign spread about it to be gospel.
In actuality it as a very deep and thoughtful speech that focused on diplomacy.
so, far, Obama has been correct in foreign policy and most democrats agree and slammed the press for their attempt to make him look foolish.
diane lake, machesney Park, US
Hillary Clinton will not win - people here(almost 50%) actually dislike her; not just her policies, they dislike her. Senator Obama may be "the speaker with a rather pedestrian style, seemingly hobbled by caution " but people are gravitating to him because of his candor. He does not come across as manufactured and manipulative like Mrs. Clinton. And there are really many of us here who actually do believe that we should converse with rogue nations and that we should go after the real culprits of 9/11. Interestingly Hillary parroted word for word what Obama said about going after terrorists in Pakistan(and she is the "experienced" one) and then went on to sling mud at him for saying it. So I say anyone but Hillary.
MM, Denver, USA
Shouldn't that be "no one ever lost money overestimating the credulity of voters"?
Michael W Stone BA FBIS, Peterborough, Cambs
Are there no Republicans running for President? My understanding is that out of dozens of polls Hillary has out-polled Guilliani only once. Would the Europeans be interested to know that?
mike sorensen, Las Vegas, nv
Hillary is from the far Left and will do her best to bring socialism to America. - wealth redistribution and big government. Frankly, we're close enough to that nightmare with having her in power. Hillary in the White House would threaten all that makes America great.
Joanne, Charleston, SC
Yes Sir, I am with you.
She know how to become clean with Whitewater and how to save the Planet thanks Mr. Gore as Vice President and here Husband as President with there rich experience of bombing Yugoslavia with dirty Plutonium shelled bombs.
A President like Hillary Clinton is exactly what the World is waiting fore and will save the Planet from the human race.
e_widiner, shanghai, China
"I continue to find the ease with which she has sacrificed her principles on everything of importance... a little chilling"
Be honest, Baker, it's not her changeability which irks you, you're just a Republican. Bush's transformation from Compassionate Conservative to Commander-in-Chief was electoral cynicism, but secured your affection for a few years.
John Allen, London, UK
Hillary is the typical lefty. She wants power, dreams about it and of course has come so close before. She will adopt any posture, mouth any idiocy to get power and if she does, then the real Hiillary will become clear. It won't be a pretty sight.
I'm almost of the mind that the ideal candidate is ABH - anyone but Hillary, but I'm not quite that desperate yet.
Stan, USA,