It is much too soon to write off the Republicans,

Lynn, Cincinnati, Ohio

While I think that it is probably the Democrats' turn to rule the roost, I also think it is their last chance to do so an show a benefit. Historically, Dems have gotten us into more wars, developed more unsubstantiated and exploited social programs and created more social unrest that Republicans. Plus, like it or not, the foreign nations with which a Hillary Clinton would have to deal do NOT respect women, even a little. Pair that with a religion that adheres to the concept that you don't have to honor treaties or contracts made with infidels, and you have a recipe for more attacks on our shores. And when you are looking at the polls, please recall that although President Bush's numbers are low, Congress' numbers are even lower. If there were a viable third party candidate that would meet the needs of the Middle 80% of us that are sick of the Washington shuffle, they would win at least enough to force it to the Electoral College. I wish!

Ellen Kudlicki, Dallas, TX

To Steve from Lowell: no party's successor to a highly unpopular President ever had to run against a candidate as off-the-charts unlikable and divisive as Hillary Clinton.

The 2008 election will be historic for the number of voters who come to the polls only to vote AGAINST Hillary. And the only way to do that, of course, is to vote for the Republican, whoever he is.

Bill, Holly, MA

I find it interesting that Conservatives of all stripes - religious, cultural, political - are so afraid of women. It's not an attitude exclusive to any country, sect, or party, but does seem to follow the conservative mentatlity - the more conservative the group, the more likely it is that women will be constrained and/or denigrated in some way. This attitude certainly shows up in the conservative response to Hillary Clinton - it seems that a strong woman who knows what she wants, and has the courage to work for it, is terrifying. Come on boys - it's the 21st Century. Grow up. Real men PREFER strong women.

Maren, New Hope, MN

The next President will get elected making the case that Bush seems constitutionally incapable of making himself. Look at the worldwide economy. Look at the defeat of al-Qaeda and the engagement of nihilistic Islam. Just look.

kim, Lawrence,

I wish our people could write like your Gerard Baker...

Wiilard Emery , Penobscot, Maine

Not since 1876 has a highly unpopular incumbent President been succeeded by someone from his own party. In every U.S. Presidential election since 1876, whenever the incumbent President was highly unpopular, his party lost the White House in the next election.

President Bush's high unpopularity with the American public (his approval rating is now in the low 30s) may represent an insurmountable obstacle for any Republican candidate to overcome.

Steve, Lowell, MA, U.S.A.

It's Mrs. Clinton's turn, that's all. The pendulum swings left to right to left, etc., and it's now in a leftward cycle. The best thing that can happen to my Republican party is for a Clinton win. She will energize the base, especially if she turns out to be a screw-up. She will be given a chance to prove herself, though, and the test will be terrorism. She can blow off the 1st attack on our soil under her watch as W's fault; but if we are attacked twice, and she appears to do nothing substantial, she and the Democrat's are toast! And to do something effective she will have to adopt the GW Bush set of balls and strategy, which will vindicate George. Either way, we win. I really think the Democrats are suffering from Bush-Derangement-Syndrome and it is blinding them to the real danger our western civilization is in. Once Bush clears the stage folks here will see why we need a real strong leader, why it’s vital for our survival. Is Mrs. Clinton this kind of leader? We'll see.

serasoft, Manchester, USA/NH

“Who is the leader of Canada?”

Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second. So there!

David J. Timson, Belfast, UK

Republicans simply believe in the idea that opportunity trumps a nanny government for ushering people into prosperity. Hillary wants to raise taxes and keep people dependent upon the state for their well-being...all the while painting Republicans as lacking compassion, simply because Republicans have more faith in the individual who seeks success and is willing to work for it, than a big nanny government that is the most wasteful, inefficient bureaucracy the world has ever known.

John, Annapolis, MD

As a lifelong Republican I am disturbed by the polls (outlook) for the 2008 presidential election. I am very disappointed in what's happened under the Bush watch, especially the excessive spending, the terribly slow progress in Iraq, and the immigration / amnesty bill. He's not the Republican I thought he would be.

I like Duncan Hunter, because he stands up for the America we've all grown up in, not the unrecognizable one that's emerging due to ultra-liberal programs and judicial lawmaking. I'm afraid there are too few Americans that know about him, or will spend the time to know about him.

I put very little trust in polls - remember the responders to these polls are probably the same responders to history polls who thought we fought Mexico in World War II. Oh-oh, I just realized there are so many Americans with this level of knowledge that the election of a Democratic president is probably imminent.

Phil Moore, Ypsilanti, Michigan

You Brits,
always the cynical twist..right, lads?
Conservatives are going down in USA because of a sea-change failure of neoconservative politics (Iraq): and because of the collapse of the conservative movement (no Evangelical running who has the ghost of a chance). Into the breech, gents, steps Hillary. A good person, and (dare I say it?) a leader. She'll win. Oh aye.

Don Matson, Acton, usa

I think most of the "establishment" (politicians and media) have got it wrong. There is not a great groundswell of support for the Democratic Party. There is an intense anti-Washington sentiment. There is an opening, as there has not been since the late 1970s, for a Ronald Reagan candidacy. By that I mean a twin argument that "government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem", and the answer to foreign problems is "we win, they lose". Giuliani has the opportunity to be that candidate, as a former mayor (i.e. a Washington outsider) and one of the more libertarian candidates in the race. Whether he will sieze it remains to be seen.

I can see two possible outcomes. One is that a Democrat (probably Clinton) limps into office with a slim victory and proceeds to follow the path of Jimmy Carter. The other is a Republican ticket (Giuliani/Huckabee?) winning a surprise landslide. I think the former is more likely at this time, but the latter could happen.

Jim, Washington, DC

The GOP is simply evolving. It's members now include those who want universal health care, want unions, don't get upset about gay rights, want out of Iraq, and yes, the GOP includes those who are pro-choice. This is the real issue - not Hillary. The liberal view of yesterday is always the conservative view of today. as when evangelicals started wearing long hair, side-burns, and bell -bottoms, thing they previously railed against. Some rebublicans even have inter-racial marriages, something many of their christian members have alwys stood against. So the issue isn't Hillary, but rather what are the ideas that separate them as a party. Their biggest fear about Hillary is that she will probably be a damm good president.

M.C.Cooper, St. Augustine, FL

Watch the legislative elections in Virginia this year. Here we have similar national and state level trends reinforcing each other, so Virginia should be a good bellweather. If the GOP holds onto even one house of the VA legislature, maybe next year's elections won't be a total wipeout. But if they lose both houses, the ship really is sinking. We will all know in 3 weeks.

Andrew P, Alexandria, VA

There are some Republicans who have been trying to tell their fellow Republicans exactly what the last paragraph of this article has said -- since the middle of January (1/16/07) of this year -- even before Clinton announced her candidacy. Pls see The Formidable Hillary Clinton in the conservative Human Events, which predicts Hillary will be President: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=18957

Brett Richards, Indianapolis, Indiana

Woe to the US if Hilary becomes president. She is seasoned in every form of rhetoric that serves to exonerate her from any clear ideas or positions on anything. Foreign leaders will have no confidence in her; Congress will not respect her; and there are a number of Democratic candidates in the running who are smarter and more principled. I want to live to see a woman president, but please, America, not Hilary Clinton!!!

John Blanco, San Diego, CA, US / California

Republicans don't give a damn about anybody but themselves, so why anyone would vote for a POS Republican is beyond me. Haven't you had enough of the Republican version of "smaller government", "smaller spending", "smaller wars". Gimme a break. Republicans are worse than Democrats and all issues. However, I do hope they win the 2008 Presidential Election, because I don't envy anyone who's got to deal with the Iraq War. Good luck, you morons........

Bill Paste, Pasadena, USA, CA

It is really sad that i have to go overseas to get an objective view of my home country politics.

Richard Dopierala, Converse, USA/Texas

When will we get off of this "crazy ride" we're on, i heard John McCain respond to the question of; "the average worker is paying 35% of his wages in taxes and a hedge fund partner is only paying 15% of hundreds of millions of profits" His responce was basically, we pay taxes, instead of a typical Republican talking point of all taxes should be lower. One person makes milllions and payer lower taxes than the common "working schmoo!" We have a wonderful system here, become rich and pay not taxes or work hard and get "hammered" by the government.
Mark, Kansas City., Mo.

Mark, Kansas Cit, US

Gerard Baker's comments about the Republicans down course not seen since the 70's and them scrabbling over a sinking ship is laughable. The only thing more comical is anyone who believes Hilliary Clinton would ever be elected president of this great country. I'm not saying I'm aversed to a woman president. It's just than being a staunch conservative, I could never vote for a socilaist.

Joe Profitt///Jackson, KY 41339

Joe Profitt, Jackson, Kentucky

While not quite sure if the US is ready for a black male president or not I strongly believe a woman running for president has a strong chance for succeeding. Should Mr. Obama win the Democratic nomination I certainly wouldn't rule out his chances of winning a national election either. G.O.P candidates thinking they'll have an easy win in either case I think will find themselves very surprised when they lose by a landslide. Americans on the whole, at least those not afraid to be free thinking (read not evangelistic capitalists) realize neither choice could possibly be as bad nor do as much harm as President Dick and his marionette figurehead George, and I for one welcome a United States finally free from all the religious conservative dogma so prevalent in our politics today.

Greg, Lancaster, PA

When will most people realize that it's not liberal or conservative, Democrat or Republican, but big business that really runs the show. Most Americans believe the same things but because of spin, and crack pots on the right and left we fall into the trap everytime. How about real campaign reform so elected officials not lobbyists can run our government!

Harold Smith III, Atlanta, Ga

I dont see a Republican as being a shoo in for anything but as someone's girlfriend at the Federal Penitentiary. Americans are tired of being sold fear , lies , racism and war without any benefit to Americans on the whole. 6 sex scandals during GWB's term and Rove is a heartbeat away from an indictment , the Republicans are due for a trouncing worse than they took post Watergate. Funny thing is Neoconservative WASPS are quick to point out that they and they only represent America , forgetting the fact that they are less than 20% of a increasing diversified nation. Neither blacks or Hispanics will vote for a GOP candidate in the next election , and together , they make up close to 40% of the electorate. The GOP is DIW for 2008.

J Cartier, Detroit, Michigan

As a middle American let me tell you what the issues are for us:

1. Stagflation and the new market bubble caused be the
weakened dollar.
2. Access to private healthcare and not creating a nanny
system while lowering overall unchecked costs
3. Fiscal conservatism and a balanced budget that pays back
debt.
4. A world without China's most favored trade status
5. Reimplementation of school house rules, you don't go
looking for a fight because you're the biggest kid, but you're
ready to defend yourself when someone attacks you.
6. You love your neighbor as yourself, and you treat them with
same respect you want in return.
7. You tell people what you think, but you don't hold a gun up
to their head to make them think like you do.
8. Pay the bill in Iraq, and go fight the real war in Afghanistan
(You should have listened to your dad Georgie)
9. Restore military balance between Russia, China, and the
US or hello to a arms race

Marcus , Dallas , TX

Are there no women, other than Mrs Clinton, willing to have a go? Or for that matter people of asian and other backgrounds willing to try? Or is the presidency only for stupid, white men?

America is a country of wide,tremendous talent, but its reluctance to see this reflected in its public institutions is hard to comprehend.

Paul, London, UK

Shambolic as the Republican front may look at this point, as a party they have no intention of losing. A strong candidate will undoubtedly emerge -- one who will reap the votes of the vast voter expanses of middle America. Likely, the Republicans will be helped most of all by whoever emerges as the candidate for the Democrats.... currently on offer is a frightening woman and a black man whose name sounds curiously Middle Eastern. Apart from the liberal enclaves in the cities of the north east, Chicago and the far west -- and without sounding sexist or racist, neither of which I am -- I really don't beleive America is in any way ready for a woman or a black president. Thus the selection of either of these candidates will give the Republicans the shoo-in they are anticipating.

David Griffiths, Seattle, Washington, USA

In the period 1968-1988 the Republican candidate won 5 out of six presidential elections while the Republican party always won less then 200 out of 435 seats in the House of Representatives. After the 2006 election the Republicans have 202 seats. Maybe the Republican candidates know something that Gerard Baker doesn't.

Peter, New York

Peter, New York, USA

A view from this side of 'The Pond' by one who wishes to see another Republican in charge of the most important power and most important economy in the world is to let the Democrats make all the waves and do most of the talking until the latter stages. A Clinton ticket event with attendant leftish policies would play into the hands of a well-managed old-fashioned campaign of fiscal probity, low taxes, less regulation and tough stance on crime, terrorism and illegal immigrants. McCain is the man to do it because he really believes in a new way and a tough stance. He will appeal to all sorts and conditions of voter in the middle and to the right. Do please run him and lets hope Hilary is the opposition....."shooting fish in a barrel comes to mind"!

Frankland Macdonald Wood, Sansepolcro 52037, Italy

Gerald Baker asssertion that the Republican Party is a sinking ship is illusionary - he would be better off advising the Democrats that their leftist ideaology might be too much for the middle Americans to chance with - American politics has fundamentally shifted towards one of security and what taxes one has to pay. The belief that a strong central government will solve all their problems has long gone - discredited. Clinton has to move toward the centre and at the same time retain the left - that is the question Baker must address

John Catsicas, Johannesburg, South Africa

According to polls there are at present two very different perceptions held by different portions of the American public. In one things have never been better and in the other opportunities for advancement diminish year by year. Part of it is the Helicopter paradigm. It's great that we have the opportunity to take helicopters to work, but, dang it, they remain somewhat out of reach of most present budgetary allowances.
An interesting definition of government is it is a deal between the wealthy and the poor. The poor allow the wealthy to keep their disproportionate wealth and in return the wealthy agree not to slaughter, imprison or unduly impoverish the not so well off. This deal is called the rights of man and can be dated to Magna Carta. It's a vague concept, heretical even, but there you have it.
Which is the dream? Both sides of the see-saw seem inhabited by ghosts; ethereal concepts .

Glenn Schaefer, Holbrook, USA

Never assume. Remember, at this point in the process the
Democrats thought Howard Dean was a potent force.

Cris McHenka, Baltimore, USA/MD

One could also interpret the Democrats early entry in the race as rats scrambling for a place on the ship.

M. Knight, Pittsburgh , USA

The Presidential cycle has turned and we will most likely have a generation and a half of mainly Democrat Presidents. In the meantime, the Republicans have to develop a new business model and clean their Augean stables fofrom the corruption and decit that has developed in their ranks.

oldasiahand, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

I think that out of the Republican chaos there will come a powerful core that will give Hillary fits. It will either be Rudy and a crew of liberal republicans that will carry a large majority of the independent voters, or will be Thompson who will carry the right to moderate republicans, the evangelicals and catholics and many independents who for one reason or the other cannot stomach Hillary.
After the primaries this current scenario will calm down and the differences between the parties will become very evident as Hillary or Obama will have to cow-tow to the radical left and the republican candidate will spend large amounts of time corraling the spectrum of repubicans and independets.
Cross party politicing will mean almost nothing in the comming election. This election will be the pivotal point in out nations history as to wheather we become a complete federal socialist nation or retain a semblence of a free enterprise democratic republic.

Gus Burk, Tucson, Arizona