Gerard Baker
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
This just in: the Third World War has been cancelled. Iran, a founder member of the Axis of Evil, once deemed to be bent on world domination at the point of a nuclear weapon, turns out to have been about as threatening as a teddy bear. Well, an inoffensively named, non-Sudanese teddy bear, I should quickly emphasise.
There we were, all thinking that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian leader, was painstakingly fashioning a nuclear bomb to further his dreams of a new caliphate, when it turns out that he and the peace-loving mullahs of Tehran were actually busy beating their swords into ploughshares. That at least was the startling verdict of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, released to widespread shock on Monday.
The publication of this NIE may come to be regarded as a latterday, real-world, but timelier, equivalent of that famous graffito once scrawled on a bathroom wall: “Archduke Ferdinand Found Alive: First World War All a Big Mistake.”
The document, the studied conclusion of the work of 16 different US intelligence agencies, said that Iran had been pursuing a nuclear weapons programme but suspended it in 2003. Though it retains important knowhow and still seeks civilian nuclear power, Iran is many years away from having a military capability, it added.
The news has been widely reported as another intelligence embarrassment for the Administration of George W.Bush, and so it is. Less than two months ago, even as the Government was compiling its report, Mr Bush was cautioning that Iran was on course to launch World War III and had to be stopped. At a minimum that is further confirmation that internal co-ordination is not a strong point in the Administration's policymaking process.
Also correct is the general reaction that the document eliminates the possibility of a US strike on Iran any time before President Bush leaves office. This is seen, inevitably, in the clichéd prism through which the world has come to view America, as a blow to the gunslinging Texan with the mad eyes and the smug grin.
The other main conclusion everyone seems to be drawing from the NIE is that the revelation marks the end of the intense diplomatic pressure on Iran to comply with international rules about its nuclear programme. If this is true it would be highly unfortunate.
First, while welcome news, the latest intelligence should be treated with at least as much scepticism as America's critics have directed at almost every other piece of US intelligence to have become public in the past few years. It was just two years ago that the same agencies produced an estimate that expressed “high confidence” that Iran was still developing a nuclear weapons programme. Now, it says, citing improved intelligence, but with the same degree of “high confidence”, that Iran had actually abandoned that programme two years before that last report was published.
This dizzying inversion is sadly of a piece with the track record of the American intelligence services. In the early 1990s they were confident that Iraq was nowhere near developing a nuclear weapon. When Saddam Hussein was forced to admit weapons inspectors at the end of the first Gulf War they discovered to their surprise that he was, in fact, not much more than a year away from nuclear capability (which, by the way, must confirm that he was, as well as being among the cruellest leaders ever to have soiled a presidential palace, also one of the stupidest. If he had just waited a year or so before invading Kuwait, the world would surely not have been able to resist his nuclear blackmail).
Then, in 2002, the intelligence agencies said, with high confidence, that Iraq still possessed weapons of mass destruction, including materials and expertise that could produce a nuclear bomb. A year or so later we learnt that it abandoned those efforts in the late 1990s.
So US intelligence was evidently wrong on those first two Iraq judgments. Now it says it was wrong on its first crucial estimate on Iran. I know military intelligence is supposed to be an oxymoron but this is like weather forecasting. It should certainly not be the basis for declaring peace in our time and welcoming those nice Iranians back into the global family.
Even if, just this once, the intelligence is correct, Tehran is still enriching uranium for supposedly peaceful purposes but can easily switch it quickly to military use. Iran is still supplying weapons and money to terrorist organisations, still trying to subvert democratically elected governments in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Iraq. And remember, if Iran really did drop its nuclear ambitions, how did that come about? According to the NIE it was because of “international pressure”.
Now what kind of international pressure was Tehran facing in 2003? Was it the terrifying reality of European-led economic sanctions? Unlikely, since the Europeans were only just starting down that long and winding and ultimately not very painful path for the Iranians in 2003.
What else was going on in 2003? You may remember that the US had just invaded Iraq with the explicit intention of discontinuing its weapons capabilities. (Iran, by the way, certainly believed Saddam had WMD back then.) It's hard to believe the episode did not concentrate Iranian minds. Another unsung benefit of the removal of Saddam.
There may be one other really good piece of news out of this latest unexpected development. The whole Middle East is in turmoil now, and not necessarily in a bad way. In Iraq the prospect of a lasting historic settlement is getting steadily closer. The Bush Administration is reaching harder for an agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Iran is in many ways the key to all this. In the past few years it has been gradually extending its influence throughout the Middle East, based at least in part on widespread fear among its ethnic and religious foes that it is close to crossing the threshold of military nuclear capability. If that is no longer the case it suddenly and dramatically changes the balance of power. Iran's leverage is significantly weakened — and so too are its proxies and friends in Hezbollah and Hamas and among the Iraqi Shia extremists.
The latest intelligence — if by some strange chance it turns out to be correct — could be another small but significant piece of good news for a benighted region.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
1913 -- The Federal Reserve (neither federal nor a reserve) is created. It was planned at a meeting in 1910 on Jekyll Island, Georgia by a group of bankers and politicians, including Col. House. This transferred the power to create money from the American government to a private group of bank
Paul Warburg, Paul , Israel
Dear Gerard,
clean your binoculars: the exaggeratet assessment of the Iraq WMD and the Iran nuclear capacities were more an effect of gouvermental influence than of authentic inteligence. Normally, the last improves credibility - mistakes included.
I approve Iran government persists in supporting terrorists, but it is open to question whether the consequences of economic restrictions in civil life do not stabilize the Mullah regime. In your opinion both the situation in Iraq and in Palestine are improving? Well, don´t issue your wish list as a plitcal assessment!
Norbert Gerber, Berlin, Germany
Just to cut through to the real issue: If anyone is interested in a safe, cheap to inspect and relatively clean civilian nuclear program, they would use modern thorium based technology.
The ONLY reason to use the dirtier more expensive older and less efficient Uranium method, is it has a useful spin-off product: Weapons Grade Uranium.
Zen, London,
Reading your article prompts the thought as to whether peace would ever materialise in the Middle East and how that might be. Undoubtedly one condition for it s appearance would be the withdrawal of American interests, and then what would the Americans do. It is an unpromising prospect as it would require a change in the present general attitude.
Henry Percy, London, UK
If accurate, clear vindication of the Bush Doctrine.
"The future of the world will be determined by free people." GWBush, an emancipation proclamation for the entire world.
Killbuzz, Kandahar,
The same intelligence services that 'failed to connect the dots' are all of a sudden reliable providers of the truth. No doubt Bush pressured them into saying this.
Ian Board, Mission Viejo, California, USA
Iran wanted world domination? Since when? Even so, what gives those who have world domination today the right to have it over others, particularly when they are guilty of the greatest crimes e.g. Guantanamo bay - so long as this injustice exists, the moral high ground has been eroded and we should seek to improve conditions in the US as well as relations with Iran and everyone else, everywhere else. Diplomacy is a lost art in this modern age - its about time it was revived.
Farrukh, Woking, UK
Condolences to all the psychotic warmongers who won't get their war. At least later than they think.
Stuart, Manchester, England
A typcial article from The Times's own Neo-Con: Gerard Baker.
Paul, London,
No matter which way you look at it, this is another victory for Bush and his foreign policy. Peace to the Middle East and the world.
Michael, London, UK
If US intelligence is normally inaccurate why pay any attention to it at all? To argue that the reverse to its findings is consequently probably true is bizarre.
Iran's behaviour in the middle east is no different than the US's behaviour in central and south america. Each country tries to exert influence in its geographic region.
How about trying some objective analysis Mr Baker.
Marek, London,
The UK and US have spent over 60 years destabilizing the middle east. It is no surprise that we are considered as the enemy. If we sent doctors and engineers over there rather than soldiers then the Iraqi people would love us, and we would not have to worry about their military capabilities, because we wouldn't be the enemy.
Bryan, Londno, United Kingdom
As always, these wrangles will be settled by events.
On the 6th December 1941, Franklin Roosevelt couldn't get the United States into World War 2 with a crowbar. One day later, if he'd tried to keep them out, they'd have tarred and feathered him.
Let's see what happens when a western city gets hit with nuclear material traced back to Iran.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
The only superior spies in Britain are Russian moles.
Peter, Ontario, , Canada
ah yes the iranians enriching uranium to 3% and running 3000 centrifuges, they only need another 23000 centrifuges working together and enrichment to 95% ..
and then they might have one deliverable nuke in maybe 10 years or more ..and at present they have possibly if not a thousand nukes directed at them certainly hundreds ..
yes we must be really scared ... of the iranian threat ..
wendy mann, glasgow,
As I understand it, there is no real difference between a nuclear programme for energy purposes and one for weapons development. All that is different is the degree of purity of the U235, and it should not be beyond the wit of man, particularly the not inconsiderable wit of Iranians, to do either. However, it is one thing to develop a weapon. The other, considerably trickier puzzle to solve is how it is going to be delivered. That should now be the area for intensive analysis.
Nicholas Lee, Windsor, UK
It seems and said that Bush wants to keep pressure on Iran despite of a negative intelligence report regarding its nuclear weapon program, drummed several times to terrorize that country. Sometimes too many empty words loose its significance.
M.R Rambler, Karachi, Pakistan
"Why does a country with huge oil and gas reserves need a civil nuclear programme?"
So their oil could be sold to make huge amounts of money?
Next you'll be asking why do they need money.
Mohammed, London, UK
Iran is subverting democratically elected governments? And who subverted its democratically elected government in the 1950s?
Hamas won democratically, but that was "bad" democracy, as was Mosaddeq's.
Perhaps we should look back more often through our own "cliched prisms" with which we view the world.
Mark Dearn, Chatham,
Why does a country with huge oil and gas reserves need a civil nuclear programme?
Dave Robins, West Drayton,
no lesly johnson
iraq was close to having nukes during the FIRST gulf war
then they had given up for 10 years when america invaded
and then iran gaveup on nukes
Gerben, Den Haag,
So Iraq was close to having nukes when the Americans invaded?
Around the same time, Iran gave up on it's race for nukes?
Could this be because the threat from next door had been removed? Not because of the threat of a US led invasion?
You say that Iran has been "spreading it's influence through the Middle East" Can the same not be said for the US?
Lesly Jonson, Praha, Czech Rep.
Im guessing that Iran "suspended" as opposed to stopped their nuclear bomb program because the western intelligence agencies were frustrating their efforts to aquire fissile material. That is why there are underground galleries of centrifuges busily enriching uraniam right now.
Im also guessing that Ahmadinejad is playing for time by talking of moving enrichment to Switzerland etc bla bla until Mr Bush leaves office.
Has anybody asked Mrs Clinton or Obama what they will do when they get the report in 2010 that Iran has carried out an underground nuclear test?
peter, limassol,
Nice analysis.
It amazes me that those who belittle US intelligence as always wrong, can latch onto to something like this and draw concrete conclusions (which support their own views of course) without a moment's thought. Surely if US intelligence is always wrong, it is reckless to rely on even this piece of US intelligence.
But I digress. It's good that pressure on Iran seems to have paid off. Far from embarrassing the US, this latest revelation should be a feather in its cap.
I sincerely hope, though, that they keep up the pressure.
Mike, Sydney, Australia
Seems there are still some with a conscience, or at least a degree of pragmatism within the US intelligence community. Because someone has deflated the tyres on the Bush Administration war wagon. Appears the "building a thermo-nuclear weapon" justification for the pending attack on Iran just cratered. The Angels only have to stall the Bush Neocons for another year and there'll be a whole new ball game. Assuming Bush doesn't find a "state of emergency" reason to postpone the presidential election. If that happens all bets are off, so better start checking out nice, neutral Buddhist countries as part of your contingency planning.
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Japan
You criticize American Intelligence, but I don't see MI5 or MI6 doing a damn thing! Why don't you send your superior spies over to Iran so they can determine the truth and enlighten us all. Intelligence gathering is very much an inexact science, which is why these reports are called 'estimates,' not foregone conclusions.
James Jones, Columbus, USA/ OHIO
I just saw a flock of pigs fly past my window.
Zen, London,