Gerard Baker
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It's human nature to imbue inert numbers with profound significance. We celebrate 18th birthdays and 25th anniversaries as though doing so might pause, even for a moment, the merciless ticking away of life's clock. We build buildings without 13th floors. In Asia they will go to extreme lengths to avoid any contact with the number 4. The Bible can be read like an extended number puzzle: twelve tribes, ten commandments, seven plagues, four horsemen.
In financial markets this tendency has fascinated economists. A certain number in an index or a price for a traded instrument is said to be “psychologically important”. It is believed that traders behave differently when they near or cross some round number - a $2 pound, 10,000 on the Dow Jones industrial average.
It seems implausible at first sight that hard-bitten capitalists would be victim to such unreason. Yet the idea that particular numbers matter persists in the minds of some people in the markets, which is enough to make it a kind of reality, I suppose. Sometimes, it seems, like an old horse that whinnies and retreats from some unseen spectral object, markets really do think a particular number might be haunted.
One of those magic numbers is $100 for a barrel of oil. On Wednesday, for the first time, contracts for future delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange finally recorded that figure.
There seemed something especially ominous about hitting such an iconic number on the very first trading day of the new year - a year already invested with so much fear for the global economy. It was generally reported that, unless you happen to work for an oil company, this was a seriously bad number.
I beg to differ. There are good reasons not to fear $100 oil and even a case for mild celebration. That might not make much sense as you stand shivering this morning spending half a day's wages to fill up your petrol tank. And it might appear to sit oddly with our last experiment with rapidly rising oil prices - those halcyon economic days of the 1970s - but it's true.
The oil shock of the 1970s did help to bring the world that ugly pantomime horse called stagflation - stagnation with inflation. The quadrupling of prices in the 1970s to a price that, in inflation-adjusted terms, was just about the same as this week's was one of the primary factors behind the worst decade for the global economy since the Great Depression.
But while it's obviously true that today's higher oil prices represent both an inflationary risk and, at the same time, a recessionary one, as a kind of additional tax on our disposable income, there are lots of good reasons to think the effect this time should be much smaller than it was 30 years ago.
The first is that, back then, a sluggish global economy was hit hard by the deliberately restrictive policies of the oil-producing nations. It was, in the economist's jargon, a supply shock, as oil output was restrained by the producers from keeping pace with demand.
This time the principal reason for rising prices is less to do with supply than with demand. For all the talk of imminent global recession, 2007 was another bumper year. The continuing advance of China and emerging markets, solid growth in the US and a sprightly performance by those old laggards Europe and Japan meant that available oil production could not keep pace with demand. Now, of course, the rising price is the mechanism by which that demand will be restrained a little - but that is no reason to think a slump is on the cards.
The second big difference concerns the other end of the stagflation horse - inflation. A good reason for mild optimism today is simply that our policymakers have already lived through the experience of the 1970s and know what to do to avoid repeating it.
Back then, the oil shock came on top of a decade of steadily rising inflation, which nobody seemed to mind much. In the 1960s and early 1970s respectable economists thought there was a trade-off, that a bit more inflation was a price worth paying to keep growth going and unemployment down. So they “accommodated” the oil shock with easier monetary policy.
We learnt the hard way there is no such trade-off. If central banks accommodate higher oil prices with easier monetary policy, the almost immediate consequence will be rapid inflation, which will kill off growth.
Of course, today's economic climate poses threats. The continuing global credit crisis means that central banks might not be able to be as tough with rising inflation as they would like. But current easy monetary conditions are a temporary, emergency measure to tide us over this immediate crisis, not a permanent feature of the economic landscape.
The third good reason for suppressing our misery at $100 oil is that we are much less dependent on that baleful commodity than we were. Manufacturing - with a high energy-intensity - takes up barely half the share of our economies that it did in the 1960s. Thanks to improved production techniques and more efficient combustion engines, it has been estimated that today each unit of the West's economic output requires about a quarter of the energy input that it did 40 years ago.
Which leads us to the case for gentle euphoria at world record oil prices. A large part of the reason we are more energy efficient than we were 40 years ago is precisely because oil prices went so high in the 1970s, forcing us to use fuel more effectively.
Whether or not you believe that climate change is the world's biggest medium-term economic challenge and whether or not you believe that attempts to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels will make a bit of difference to it, you cannot seriously think that going on consuming oil at current rates is healthy.
Our continuing dependence on oil is wasteful, it messes up our environment, and it maintains our ruinous obligations to some of the most unpleasant regimes in the world - from Saudi Arabia to Venezuela via Russia and Iran.
If $100 doesn't wean us off the petroleum fix, perhaps we should start cheering for $200.
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"We are much less dependent on [oil] than we were [in the 1970s]? I don't think so. Also, if oil has reached $100 a barrel due to glabal demand, then surely we are pretty dependent on the stuff, whether for transport, agri-chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics etc.
Tim Weisselberg, Bristol, UK
Man may not be entirely 'responsible' for global warmning but it sure is helping it increase at a faster pace than it would have occured naturally.
Which does make man partly responsible for it.
Holly , UK,
I agree with the basic premise that high oil may not be the economic disaster you'd think. In the 70's, you had no less than a 900% climb in oil in an economy weaker than today's. Yet this produced no demand destruction for oil. In fact, oil consumption grew at an annual rate of nearly 4% - more than today's growth! There was no "deliberately restrictive" oil policy by OPEC as the article states. There was only a brief embargo in '73, not the whole decade. The swing Saudi producers surged production to the point of reservoir damage, in fact. There were two sets of Congressional hearings in '74 and '79 over Saudi Aramco (then owned by America's oil companies) and their overproduction of the Saudi fields. If you couple this historical precedent with the article's point about each unit of economic output now using just 1/4 the oil input as then, there may be more room for oil to run than you'd think. When oil hit $40, the wisdom was it would surely cause global recession. It didn't.
Bruce Pile, Rogers, AR
Change $ to ⬠and psychologically you will enjoy a fall of oil prices!))
Andrey, Moscow, Russia
The man talks rubbish! We are not runnibg short of oil. The Greenland discoveries, new Arctic Russian discoveries and the tar sands in the US are more than all the known oil sources presently in the world. Plus if you are a believer in "the global warming" theory then we will be using less oil for heat.
Oh, another note: the US just tested a mixture of jet fuel, natural gas and coal gas to fly a C-5 from west coast to east coast. Worked fine. Meaning we could cut use of oil by 50%. Lets see how that changes the $100.00 a barrel cost of oil. The U.N is really going to hate this. Anyone explain why ice at south pole is increasing.? Why we didn"t have all the horrible hurricanes predicted? Why Britain is cooler than usual? Why the Bali Summit ignored a letter to them from 400 world scientists saying man was not responsible for global warming?
ghl, Mdby, USA/Vt
We'd use a lot less oil if we all drove at 50 mph - and fewer fatal accidents too.
Anna, camberley,
Stating the obvious. Wherever the price point is for fossil fuels, etc. to stay cheaper than the alternatives, that's where the suppliers will stay at or below for as long as they can to control the energy market. Once that is no longer sustainable, or their supplies become insufficient, then the other sources become competitive and fossil fuels, et al., become relegated to the past.
I think a lot of people are betting that the transition won't happen in their lifetimes and are acting accordingly rather than showing leadership to enable the inevitable.
Stan Young, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
I think it's so funny that some of you think that they are putting the price up to encourage us to stop using it... Is that why there is 70% tax on our petrol? to stop us using so much? The goverement are soooo caring!!! It's all about the money and controlling us, though limiting and controlling our energy supplies.
You didn't attend the Bilderberg meeting last year did you Gerard, where you there with Anatole Kaletsky? Because they also said we'd be paying $100 a barrel by 2008, do you support there agenda? Maybe you should ask Anatole what there plans are for 2008-2009?
Them Bilderbergers are like psychics :o)
Andy, England,
Yes lets all cheer for $200, $300 is possible hurrrah, hurrah.
The last spike was caused by supply disruption, this spike
is being caused by the very real realization that we are reaching peak oil. The fact is if there were a substitute for OIL we would be
using it. We need to conserve what we have but in order to do
so we need to change our ways in a manner that will not please
anyone heavily invested in the consumption growth economy.
No new major oil discoveries, current stocks overestimated and depleting and no obvious alternative. Hurrah Hurrah. Do read
Matthew Simmons 'Twilight in the Desert'.
Mark, Loughton, Essex
But, Steve Marchant, Gerard Baker's article was not concerned with the narrow issues confronting the British economy but a first world economy that is more fuel efficient than our competitors whose advantage is confined to cheap labour costs made cheaper by a cynical control of exchange rates which will not defy market forces indefinitely.
Fred Keeling, Almunecar, Spain
I don't think some people in Africa will be cheering on $200 oil - when they can't afford to buy kerosene for cooking or heating
Peter, UK,
We could cut our energy consumption a great deal and still lead comfortable, fulfilling lives. If $200 oil is what it needs to make us use this precious and amazing resource more carefully then so be it. Perhaps I'll have to forego buying mangetout air-freighted in from Kenya or to go on weekend breaks by train instead of plane. Prehaps I will need to move nearer to my job, or find a job closer to home. It won't be the end of the world. There are many other pleasures in life aside from those that involve the profligate use of oil.
dave, London, UK
Gerard, you paint a very rosy picture of the 1970s. It was not nice and ended up with severe industrial unrest with many losers who did not have the muscle of the Unions behind them. This time round we are in a much more vulnerable situation:-
Dwindling North Sea oil and gas
Decimated manufacturing capacity
Fragility of so-called financial industry
Record public debt
Record public pensions deficit
Record private debt
No exchange controls
There are already signs of infllation but if it accelerates in any way and the BoE does not maintain an effective anti-inflation interest rate, we will see a flight of capital that will trigger a sterling crisis. This is not a comfortable situation!
Steve Marchant, Torquay, Devon
Well,.........maybe.........just maybe, at $100 a barrel, oil will last for 100 years. Who knows?
T.R.E. Hugger, South Pacific,
I am unfortunately an economist so do not see why the prices are affected so much by turmoil (real or just anticipated). The demand for oil is fairly static although growing world wide (as you say from China) and the supply is greater than this figure so why the jumps in oil prices.
It seems to a casual observer that the demand is inflated due to the stock exchanges futures markets and this false demand is what is producing a vastly inflated oil price.
Please if anyone can explain why this is not so I please do as I am trying to understand the supply/demand process for oil.
joe, Edinburgh, Scotland
Yes, the new price will spur innovation and continue the movement away from oil. But as Keynes pointed out "In the long run, we're all dead".
The American consumer will not be spared the financial hit at the petrol pump and on their electricity bills. Hardly good news when the nation is facing a consumption slow down.
Better keep the champagne on ice.
Completely unrelated - Sean Hannity of Fox News used your marvellous "Huckaboom or Huckabust" line to describe the result in the Republican Iowa Caucus.
Hugh, Orlando, Florida
I take it therefore you are a big fan of coal, there are more hydrocarbons in Heaven and Earth than dreamt of in your philosophy and they look ever the more attractive, ever heard of market forces? and E-on commissioning coal fired electricity generating plants, don't cheer too loudly.
Simon, Leeds, U.K.
"If $100 doesn't wean us off the petroleum fix, perhaps we should start cheering for $200."
The poor will be weaned off oil, not the like of you.
Will your family forego an outing?, keep the house unheated in winter?, take fewer vacations? and will it be your children who walk to school.
I doubt it. A good article but a very stupid conclusion.
bruce mclaughlin, London, england