Gerard Baker
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How do they do it? How do the Democrats manage to squander repeatedly and with such ease the chance of a lifetime? What inverse alchemy have they created that turns the gold bullion of electoral opportunity into the base metal of political oblivion?
Eight years of George Bush, an unpopular war and a recession have handed the Democrats their best chance, not merely of winning their first presidential election in 12 years, but of achieving a rare, once-in-a- generation transformational shift in American politics.
Four fifths of the American public think the country is on the wrong track. The President wallows in the highest disapproval ratings since polling began. The Republican Party has spent most of a decade bungling almost everything it touches, abandoning its principles and sinking into a mire of corruption, hypocrisy and incompetence.
And here we are, six months from a presidential election, and it is the Democrats once again who seem to be staring defeat in the face. It's like a soccer match in which one team keeps conceding a penalty in the final minutes only to watch as the opponents repeatedly boot the penalty kick high into the stands.
Hillary Clinton's solid victory in the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday has condemned the party to many more weeks of strife and sinking public esteem. There's a popular view among Democrats and the media establishment that the reason for the party's current disarray is that it just happens to have two most extraordinary candidates: talented, attractive, and in their gender and race, excitingly new. But there's an alternative explanation, which I suspect the voters have grasped rather better than their necromancers in the media. Both are losers.
The longer the Democratic race goes on, the more obvious it appears that each is deeply, perhaps ineradicably flawed.
Until about a month ago Barack Obama had done a brilliant job of presenting himself as a transcendent figure, the mixed-race candidate with bipartisan appeal who promised to heal the historic and modern rifts in American life.
But the mask has slipped. Under pressure in a Democratic primary, Mr Obama has sounded just like any other tax-raising, government-loving Democratic politician. Worse, he has revealed himself to be a member of that special subset of the party's liberal elite - a well-educated man with a serious superiority complex.
His worst moment of the campaign was when he was caught telling liberal sophisticates about his anthropological observations on the campaign trail. In the misery of their daily lives, he said, the hicks out there in the sticks cling to religion and guns and the other irrational necessities of the unenlightened life. His wife had earlier told voters that they should be grateful that someone of his protean talents had deigned to come among them and be their president.
The events of the last month have also revealed another side of Mr Obama that threatens to undermine his whole message. He is a cynic. He tells the mavens of San Francisco one thing and the great unwashed of Pennsylvania another. In defending his long relationship with the Rev Jeremiah Wright, he shopped his own grandmother, comparing the reverend's views (God Damn America! The US deliberately spread Aids among the black population) to his grandmother's occasionally expressed fears about the potential of being the victim of crime at the hands of an African-American.
Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has been busy shedding the final vestiges of shame and honesty in her desperate attempt to save her candidacy. She has abandoned any pretence of a message, and simply seized on every opening presented to her by her opponent.
Mr Obama's missteps with the working class of Pennsylvania have thus transformed Mrs Clinton from the bluestocking Wellesley graduate into the good old girl, hanging out there with the straw-chewing rednecks, embracing their values, their worldview and even their lifestyle.
Obliterate Iran! Here comes Osama bin Laden! I love duck hunting! I can do shots and beer at the same time! It's hard to know what's worse - expressing condescending views about the working class or pretending to be one of them. The Democratic campaign is simply disappearing in the enveloping vapidity of the candidates' making.
The economy's a mess; the US is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead of seizing the opportunity to present a convincing vision of an alternative way forward the Democrats are fumbling. When they are not scrapping about each other's street cred they are falling back on the old verities of left-wing dogma: class warfare on taxes; irresponsible (and unredeemable) promises to pull out of Iraq in an instant; a protectionism that makes a mockery of their claims to want to restore America's standing in the world.
Amid this sorry spectacle of cynical opportunism and atavistic dogmatism, the Republicans have contrived somehow to select in John McCain the one candidate in their party who might actually have a shot at winning the election.
American presidential elections turn as much on the characters of the candidates as they do on the saliency of policies. Democrats, of course, think this is all rather crass. They think voters should confine themselves to the “issues”. But Americans understand their government a little better. They know the limits of presidential office and they understand the president's role as head of state is as much about leadership of the nation as it is about implementation of policy.
What they want is a man - or a woman - of character and record to inspire and lead them. That may be why the Democrats are in trouble.
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Well grasped and well said, Mr.Baker. One of the best synopses of the 2008 presidential race that I've read.
Karen, Near Seattle, USA
Of course, Senator Obama must be held accountable for the words of his spiritual advisor of over 20 years. Good Lord, what other conclusion can one come to? Either he heard and approved of the man's hateful ramblings and is lying, or he simply doesn't pay attention in church, ever. Which is better?
Skip, Akron, Ohio, United States
For Obama and Clinton it's time to do a deal. When successive nominations are banned by the Democrats a joint ticket makes an awful lot of sense. The success of the first four years provides an excellent opportunity for the election of the Vice President as President four years later. Anybody agree?
Daedalus, Boston, Ma., USA
so senator obama is simply guility by association huh? white people near and far never cease to amaze me, as a black man i can no more control what another black man saids about me or percieves me to be than anyone else.We didn't create racism it always existed in this country as well as Europe.
jerry, cleveland ohio, usa
Obama's overwhelming support from Blacks will translate into the same NOTHING it has all over the South! No black Senators NO black Governors there. They cant win power for themselves they cant win it 4 Obama. HISPANICS are n will happily fill in the seats left empty by Black voters and support HRC
jonathanseer, harker heights, tx, usa
Cynicism has crept into both camps. Mud slinging has sunk to new depths. Clinton has had to bear the brunt of cynical poll managers, Obama is slightly better off in this regard. My only fear is when one of them faces off with McCain come November, they might not have the energy to fight on.
Arya Rudra, Kolkata, India
I agree with the comment that both candidates are exhausted. Hillary is shrill and non-sensical - viz her claim to have the majority of popular votes, if only she could include Florida and Michigan, and Barak has been thrown off his message and his stride by the Democrats diversion/division attacks
Ron Robertson, Wichita Kansas, USA
Baker is right -- the Democrats have two bad candidates, both hard lefties whose friends are all hard lefties too. Lawyers married to lawyers (a respected profession but not well-liked). And whoever wins the nomination will have to face a genuine war hero. Can you say President McCain?
J Baustian, San Diego, California
Rev Wright said he is a pastor and Obama is a politician what did you expect him to say I am a pastor and Obama is a dentist
marie, taylors, us
Thanks to corruption and incompetence, the USA is in the eye of a "perfect storm" of severe economic problems, of which US citizens are perfectly, painfully, aware. It is inconceivable that they would want four more years of the same disastrous and disreputable policies and problems.
Garth Strong, San Diego, USA
The author is clueless. Two cynical losers? I guess he hasn't looked at the metric that counts at this point; campaign funds raised. Obama is close to $200 million while McCain is way behind around $65 million. And McCain has been the nominee for two months. Obama will prove Mr. Baker the loser.
Bill, Montreal, Canada
The media is always stirring things up. I am white and voted for mccain but it is obvious to me that white people do not and will not elect a black man. Race has everything to do with this contest
marie, taylors, us
What in the name of all that's holy does the writer think politics is all about?Politics is about winning and the winner gets the White House.My God look what you did to Winston.Losers please leave .
Andrew O'Donnell, Sacramento,, CA .USA
Mr. Baker you have it exactly right! Mr. Obama is what I call a Limousine Liberal. He pretends to be a regular guy but that mask has slipped. I would much rather Mr. McCain be the next President than Mr. Obama. I hope this Country doesn't elect either of these losers!
Michael, Birmingham, Alabama, USA
These candidates are bad for America but, politics being what it is, one of them will be inaugurated next January. Europeans need not worry about a "third Bush term". As for history - can American soldiers leave Europe, PLEASE? If you let us leave, we promise never to return, for any reason.
Pat, Keyport, NJ, USA
To Simon in Manchester, we Americans do not have perfect recall of history but we are not alone. Please remember LendLease and other acts which we undertook prior to Pearl Harbor to support European democracies in absolute violation of our professed neutrality Limited space prevents further response
Earl Dewey, Wallingford, CT, USA
Obama is just another Washington, say anything, do anything politician, but was marketed as the "change, above the fray" politician. With the help of the media, Obama rose to stardom quickly and without scrutiny, now his true colors are coming out. Hello President McCain and thanks democrats.
Ben, Minneapolis, USA
Most Americans think that they bailed out Europe from Hitler. But if they pause and reflect deeply America entered war only after Japanese attacked peral harbour and carted off many German scientists who worked on V1 and V2 rockets for their rocket development. But history is not their strong point
Simon, Manchester,
The backbiting between vague Obama and slick Hillary will only help the loose-cannon McCain.
If this primary last until the Dem. Convention, unless some real sense of order occurs--expect resentment between the two supporters/delegates.
Remember-Ralph Nader is running too on a 3rd ticket.
Max, Fort Worth, USA
70% of Americans believe that Mr. Bush is a failure and even in his home town of Dallas, he has few defenders. The Democrats will indeed retake the White House since Mr. McCain--although a fine man--will not be able to overcome the resentment from eight years of the GOP's failed policies.
curtis, Dallas, TX, USA
None of this is surprising. It was always just a matter of time before people saw the real Barack Obama. He's an awful candidate, far to the left and far out of the mainstream, who has proven he'll do or say anything to further his political career, and Hillary is the same way.
Scott, Pittsburgh, USA
"Once he is nominated, most Democrats will come home and rally to defeat McBush."
This effort to equate McCain with Bush that has been cropping up lately is interesting, to say the least. I wonder if they can make it stick with anybody who followed the Bush/McCain battle in 2000.
McCain 08!!!
Dan, Minneapolis, USA/MN
Interesting your Obama's description "a well-educated man with a serious superiority complex". Go for it Hillary, you are still our best candidate!
Anne, LA, USA
It's really very simple: Americans are "ready" to vote for a black person or a woman for president - but not a liberal. Never have, never will. Dems mistakenly thought since it's a good year for Dems, America will finally elect a liberal. To quote a former president, "Not gonna happen."
Dave H, Culver City, CA, USA
This is just your opinion, man. Many of us have the opposite opinion. Many new voters will be registered, and many of them will vote for Obama.
John, Minneapolis,
Yes Thomas, you are right -- we do have this luxury; and with this luxury comes time (our long holiday as you put it). It means, thanks to a bunch of Americans wasting loads of money defending us, we have time to sit back an examined the US system carefully: so listen to the arm-chair generals!
david miller, Windsor, UK
Europeans don't live in the USA. There are two Candidates running for the Democrat Nomination. There is one that has had BIG MONEY behind him; and he has been able to travel to locations and get rock star crowds to attend his rallies with the MEDIA while he calls for his HOPE for CHANGE.
Rutha Larison, Seguin, Texas 78155, United States of America
Hicks in the midwest use their "Noses" and minds to examine candidates. Obama is an "effete snob". Hillary shows that SHE is more like Bill then anyone else imagined! Inflation is low; 5 % unemployment is low too; the DJIA is almost 13K; keep it up Henny Penny's of the US! Whiners never win.
Stan Lieber, Carterville, U.S.A.
Hillary Clinton strategy seems to be : Anybody but Obama . This can only open the road for McCain
commeau, Rambouillet, France
if hillary looses please vote for John Mccaion
frank, houston,
Apparently most Europeans, compliments of American blood and treasure, have the luxury of being arm-chair generals and can continue their long holiday from history. I pity them. It's a shame they can no longer defend themselves and must continue to rely on the Americans whom they denigrate. By by.
Thomas McFadden, Chicago, Illinois
very well said Baker. Although it's all so easy to watch dogs fight from afar while going unscathed.
All McCain has to do now is come down from his pedestal and clean up the remnants.
But I hope that's not the case. I hope that Hillary will stand down and let Obama unite the country.
rob, atlanta, us
The American two-party system 1) guarantees that the most superficial mediocrities will prevail in being nominated and elected.2) guarantees that the parties themselves will eventually become almost indistinguishable 3) Systematically rejects the non-rich and the "controversial" (principled)
Rick LaBonte, Liverpool, UK
Victor From France, The republicans are not universaly hated. The general public in the US hates our do nothing Congress and President. Not the ones that want to do nothing. The Democrats controll congress and congress has lower approval numbers than the president. McCain is a Maverick.
Gary Whitlock, Laguna Hills, CA, USA
What does Obama want to "change," exactly? Does he not like our 3 branches of govt? He WILL change our taxes, in the upward direction. Change the US into a theocracy as the press has annointed him all-knowing messiah. Change = obama in power, and he's feeding the rest of you his belief in himself.
Aidan, Illinois,
It's not the Democrats squandering anything: it's just two very strong candidates fighting it out -- which is the essence of a (small-d) democratic political system. Either one will be able to beat McCain and his failed policies, which Americans disdain.
rob salter, new york, USA
The Dems have a history of doing just this. In 2000 we had a total fiasco that could have been avoided if Al Gore won his home state. He lost his home state? Remarkable. In '04 defeating GWB was an easy lay-up. The best canidate the Dems could find was Kerry? GWB is the Dems fault not the GOP's
Andrew, McLean, USA
Race and Gender. Most white male Democrats probably won't vote for Obama. Most black male Democrats probably won't vote for Clinton. Females of either race will be divided, but probably favour Clinton. Some of all of these, along with every Republican, will vote for McCain. Who do you think wins?
Robert Parsons, Bormes-les-Mimosas, France
Gerard is quite correct. The Barack-Hillary campgain reminds me of the Hindenburg going down in flames over Lakehurst, with the Democratic Party playing the role of the blimp.
Sarah Bellum, Thousand Oaks, California, USA
America is learning a tough lesson: if it doesn't want 'politics as usual', it must punish those who practice 'politics as usual'.
But does Europe secretly loathe the idea that America will elect a black leader and thereby confound the simple image of the USA as a hillbilly declining power?
D Mytty, Carbondale CO, USA
"isn't it a catastrophe that the worlds foreign policy is decided in iowa rather than london"
Far from it. I regretfully observe that the only new foreign policy ideas coming out of London these days come from its madrassas and involve the imposition of sharia law on Western democracies.
Mary L., Los Angeles, California, USA
Beides the arguments in the Times article,a large proportion
of the fanatic women which only for feminist reasons and
low education persons which think that HILLARY would bring back the better times of BILL's presidency (between the latter, Latinos and Asian inmigrants), as well as older persons which are more racists which increased age, would not vote for OBAMA.
As for HILLARY, once all the arguments against her and the dubious source of income of the Clintons would be waged against her, is plainly unelectable, besides that the vast majority of the black community, nor the enthusiastic young pro-Obama would not vote for her.
So, a loss in November for either of them could be nearly guaranteed!!
Tom Wittmann, Albuquerque, NM, USA
Lenin was smart.
Jerome, Lafayette, USA
Obama is a hard left-wing opportunist and a phony whose artificially created image has begun to crumble. Unfortunately, the only candidate with any sort of handle on the looming fiscal train wreck heading our way is McCain.
Tim C., Seattle,
Well said! As a republican I am always amazed at the talent of democrats to throw their chances. No sane party would allow a candidate with the disapproval ratings of Hillary to create this trouble. Obama will make McCain look 100 and out of it - a child could do the math- stop the drama- go Obama!
Mary Williams, Saint Charles, IL, United Sates
If America did not have an electoral system and decided to create one, would the present system even get on the short-list? I doubt it.
Phil, Bishop's Stortford,
Obama is the lesser of the 3 evil. Hillary and McCain has Washington experence which doesnt account for much.. they authorize the war and are slaves to special interest. Obama's movement is grassroot and timely. we dont require perfection, just a leader who represents the people
peter, new york, u.s
Obama is clearly the right choice. In fact, he's the only choice. Clinton is divisive; her administration would be Gridlock City. McCain offers four more years of Bush policies. And what exactly is wrong with being smart?
Bob Lipton, Vero Beach, FL, USA
What I find amazing is the emphasis on gender or race when it comes to any political figure. What matters is the philosophy and capability of the individual. Both Democratic candidates are basicaly European socialists and apparently economic protectionists. Both stances are bad news for the US.
Mark B, Chicago, USA
Liberal sophisticates & anthropological observations? These contributors had mostly maxed out by giving a small amount of money, monthly, for more than a year. For the former, since when does being a Democrat, liberal or progressive, somehow make you less American than a conservative Republican?
David C., Arlington, TX,
This article is spot on.
This generation of Democrats have been hijacked by the leftist hippies of the '60s and has only been able to generate policies that are against things. They only stand for stopping progress and leadership.
Jim, Detroit, Michigan
Excellent, spot-on observation regarding both Democratic candidates. Though I would add that despite George W. Bush's approval ratings, he consistently "polls" better than Congress as a whole. Which makes McCain an even stronger candidate because he has long been considered a political maverick.
MJC, New York, USA
The depressing reality is that in a superpower of over 300 million people the system is so corrupt that in the end it comes down to a choice between McCaine, Hillary and Obama. America, is that the best you can do? God help the rest of the world !
Alan, buenos aires,
Baker contradicts himself by saying this is a chance to fundamentally shift US politics, and then concluding that Americans "understand the president's role as head of state is as much about leadership of the nation as it is about implementing policy".
McCain has had an easy ride so far.
Steve, London, UK
How can you stupidly distort Obama's statements.
Mark Power, London,
I was going to restrain myself and not comment being a good fellow, BUT -- This is for "peter in london." Pete, old sport, you do understand that the world's foreign policy was dictated from London after 1765 until about 1942. I have but one question for you and that is:
How did you guys make out?
Robert de Jong, Vineland, New Jersey, United States of America
Dead on. I'm a Republican and was tempted by Obama for a time in the early going. Now I see he's just another far left liberal with miserably uninformed economic ideas. Throw in a promise to evacuate Iraq that he can't possibly keep and he's a bad candidate. Expect him to got trounced in November
Stephen Gentry, Atlanta, George
Why are people in this county so ignorant? Politics have nothing to do with religion or guns any longer. Many Republicans have been in the White House and Congress for many years. They have not and will not overturn Roe vs. Wade. Democrats have not and will not overturn the 2nd Amendment.
Chris Metzger, Orlando , Orange
It is the Clintons that are squandering our opportunity to change things - and the mainstream media is facilitating what they are doing for short-term financial gain.
Nevertheless, many are now gaining the courage to stand up to the Clintons. Americans may redeems themselves yet.
Gunnar, Salem Oregon, USA
Great commentary. I've come to respect the opinions and press from the UK as intelligent and comprehensive vs. the tabloid journalism of the US. I voted for Obama in PA (and changed parties). Let the 15% of racist rural whites vote for McBush. Enough independents will go with Obama in Nov.
Charles White, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Obama and Clinton share one thing in common. They tailor their message to the crowd of the moment, shedding skins like chameleons. On the contrary, with John McCain, what you see is what you get. A moderate man with the courage to buck the party line and stand up to do what is right.
Brian Levy, Toronto, Canada
What you Brits don't understand is that this is a set up show to placate the masses, make them think that this is a serious dispute between opposing sides, and take the whole scharade seriously at the polls. In reality, the ObamaNation is in the cards dealt by a crooked dealer on Wall Street.
Wm Frederick, Ft Myers, Florida, USA
Obama's got it right on guns/religion/rural America .The outside world cringes each time there is another slaughter in a high school.What do Americans do?Get real!
John, Exeter, UK
The Democrats, hijacked over and over by the far left -- just as the Republicans WERE until McCain came along -- tend to push far let issues that don't resonate with "the middle" of the country, a middle that is comprised of moderate to liberal and moderate to conservative people of all stripes.
Julia Thompson, Washington, US
No one has squandered anything yet. 6 mos is an eternity in American politics. Consider how much has transpired since Jan. You're too categorical, dismissive of how fluid are campaigns, candidates, the media and the voters themselves. The Dems will refocus on the prize and win on economic issues.
Andrew, New York, USA
Your analysis is bang on and reduced to its core,its that the Democrats, having purged the sensible wing of their Party years ago, are a motley collection of dreary,left wing elitists and racial spoils hucksters.This explains, precisely, Obama's appeal to the Party grandees
Mark, Boca Raton, Fla, USA
The only hope left for the Democratic Party is to have both candidates on the ticket. The ideal situation would be to have Clinton in the top spot with the much younger Obama as V.P. That creates the possibility of a Democratic president for the next 4 terms.
Bob Belfance, Akron, United States.
A good Democratic candidate would have no difficulty in taking the presidency. Hillary and Bill still think that the presidency is theirs by right.. Obama in a similar way thinks it is for the likes of him, hence he often repeats 'change'. Both are bad candidates and hence it looks like McCain win
norman, Liverpool,
Hillary Clinton is the lowest candidate the country has ever seen before. McCain is an honorable person but he has no idea where the country is now and where it is heading to. Obama is the only hope the country has: he has the capacity to unite us, lead and learn-and-lead.
Met Brown, Atlanta, GA
Met Brown, Atlanta, GA
You're just looking for a good story and you under estimate the true feelings of American's this election season....
..the only republican who might, might stand a chance of winning would be Abe Lincoln.
Glen Bentley, Lancaster, Pa, USA/PA
Lost in all the wailing about Pennsylvania is the fact that Democratic turnout in all contests so far has far exceeded the GOP's. So all the eventual nominee has to do is rally those voters to the polls in November. Which won't be difficult once it becomes apparent that McCain has nothing to offer.
Tariq, Toronto, Canada
The big problem is that this stew has been on the pot too long. Even though it was boiled periodically, it still turned sour in the end.
The majority of Americans have made up their minds. Seeking change, I will vote for Obama, certainly not McCain or HillaryBillary Same.
Arlean Guerrero, Castroville, California , USA
Agree with you totally. We had an appalling government in Australia which from 1996 abrogated its duties to domestic policy-making for all but a small clique of cronies. They became anti-democratic in their attitude and approach to government so we removed them. Now I fear for our American friends.
Robert James Hamilton, Blue Mountains Sydney, Australia
Americans aren't inherently pro-war, it's just we are pro-freedom and that sometimes necessitates war. The idea in Iraq was a noble one, transform the region with democracy, but in Iran we won't make that mistake again, we will destroy it before they get nukes. It sucks but reality often does.
Scott, Arlington, USA
You cannot grow a rose from a tomato seed. What is most distressing is that these are the "best" candidatse that the democrats can find for this race? Get used to the sound of "President McCain."
Tom, Fallston, MD, USA
Heavens no! We don't want an elitist President. We want a common man who understands the necessity of corruption, cronyism, secrecy, incompetence, war, torture, a bad economic policy, and a worse foreign policy.
Mark McVay, Denver, CO
I fear that what we are witnessing is the natural outcome of an electoral process built for a few colonies perched in the wilderness thrashing forward in the light speed of modernity. An interminable, grinding, exhausting process captured by two parties - unique to America - no wonder it is so ugly
Ian Hilton, Stouffville,
Democrats have badmouthed Bush for seven years, our troops and country for decades for political gain. Socialist all of them. Now it is fun to watch them eat there own. There is still alot more to learn about Obama and his shady friends. As the curruption trial moves forward in chicago .
Jason, Everett, usa
Predictions of a Democratic loss are premature. Come autumn, I'd be shocked if the Democrats didn't unite behind their candidate (Obama and Clinton have pledged to support whoever is the nominee). When the choice is a Democrat or McCain, the majority won't vote against its self-interest.
Robert Switzer, West Hollywood, California, USA
His vision for America will return the nation to the ethics and values that we once all admired.
Colin, Carmarthen, UK
Obama did not vote 33% of his short time in the Senate. Admirable? I think not.
Nona, New york City, USA
Excellent article and you are spot on about the Democrats. I am not surprised the Dems have squandered this opportunity-that is pretty much their calling card.
One other point to be made about US politics, it is usually the case of voting against a candidate rather than for a candidate.
Mary, Atlanta, US
Because the media are overwhelmingly supporters of the democrats and of liberalism in general, most of the US and certainly most of the world do not know that about half of American population have no use for the dems or for liberalism. Election results always shock Europe and the American elite.
BillThompson, Norfolk, Virginia, USA
the jury's still out. 3 very smart, crafty people. it will come down to personality and positions. reagan was no genius. FDR was not chummy w/ the working class. after 2 decades of trickle down economics, we're ready to move center-left. mccain is moving that way but is he really?
jeff, austin, us
Clinton is not perfect. Far from it. But she is not hiding it. I think she is better qualified to beat McCain. Get a dog to bite a dog.
Eme Guitron, Guadalajara, Mexico
I LOVE IT!!!
Especially the "alchemy" part---I almost fell on the floor laughing!!!
O.K., it's simple.
The Republicans are like parents,
The Democrats are like children.
That pretty much sums it up.
Mary Gray, Amherst , Ohio, USA
I am amazed when I read comments that talk about Sentor Obama's message of hope and how he is the only one who can unify the country. Please take a look at his voting record and listen to the content of his position on the issues. He will either govern from the left or alienate his base.
John, Winchester, VA, USA
The American middle class has seen the greatest loss of purchasing power since The Great Depression. Obama is America's last best hope -- only he can break the 60 vote Senate stalemate which has blocked change for 30 years. The survival of American democracy is in the balance, just as in 1932
Robert Goldschmidt, University Park, FL, USA
It appears that Mr. Baker received his copy of the Republican talking points and has joined the Greek chorus chant about the demise of the Democratic presidential hopes. Many Americans do think for themselves and know that truth does not comes from repetition. Do some work Come up with a new thought
Mark, El Cerrito, USA
NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg for President anyone?
Clayton, Dallas, Texas, USA
The real tragedy is that out of a population of 300 million, these are the best available candidates. Or is everyone else just too smart to bother?
Malcolm, Bragg Creek, Alberta,
He goes out as a politician and says what he has to say as a politician. (Rev Wright on Obama)
Ric, LA, USA
I would not call these candidates losers. In fact, it is the American way of electing a president that has failed them with this horribly long campaign. The bottom line is these two Democrats are tired and with good reason. That is why they are making mistakes.
Waldo, Frankfurt, Germany
It is laughable that today's liberal elite, the nouveau riche, pampered, overeducated yuppies have to try to 'relate' to ordinary people. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, truly of the upper class, never demonstrated a trace of condescension. He loved the American people and they loved him.
Dennis, Philadelphia, USA
Don't blame the Democrats; blame the Clintons. They raised the sleaze factor by 1,000. Obama did not want to go where the Clintons took him.
I once loved the Clintons. Now, YUK. If their low class campaign is rewarded, then McCain 4 President! Stack Congress with Democrats & fight from there!
Prantha Trivedi, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Dems are divided so united we stand, divided we fall. McCain will win in a landslide even though I love Obama who seems to be a pacifist which scares me. Billary's supporters will vote for McCain in a 28 per cent range at present which may change downward. Congress will become more democrat.
John Walsh, Ft Lauderdale, Florida
Dr. Ron Paul (R-TX) got 14% in the PA GOP Primary and that was with the continued media blackout on him. Some of us true Republicans are not going to lay down for this McCain. Too bad Ron Paul speaks about complex issues instead of simplistic nonsense.
Morrissey, Philly, USA
Retribution will be taken on the Clintons - they have diminished a fine candidate in Obama, with a tremendous message of hope and change. The real cynics are those who doubt the need for it. By the way are politicians EVER perfect....Are you?
Get into the real world.
Vernon Butcher, BASINGSTOKE, England
Mr. Baker has hit the nail on the head. Both Dems are losers. Sadly, there is only one real political party in the US -- and this has nothing to do with ideals. All Americans suffer when only one side of a discussion can competently perform.
Tom Ewing, Gothenburg,
Foreign coverage is quite often refreshingly independent and insightful. However, the real cause of the stalemate in the Democratic nomination is the way that pledged delegates in each state contest are allotted in proportion to popular vote unlike the Republicans who favor "winner take all".
Mike P., Austin, Texas, USA
What will be my choice? Voting for Hillary who threatens to Nuke Iran or for McCain who is willing to have a 40-year-war with Iraq?
If Hillary becomes the democratic candidate those who want less war will not vote or will vote for McCain. What choice is there without Obama?
stephen Petty, santa rosa, U.S/California
Neither Obama nor Clinton will have the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. Therefore, the superdelegates, upon their selection of the presumptive nominee will be either labeled "racist" or "misogynistic" by a significant portion of disenfranchised Democrat voters.
Scott, Phoenix, USA
Well said, Mr. Baker. at the end of the day, Senator McCain will win at least 40 states, including such Democratic bastions as New York, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, as well as Battleground states such as New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennnsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri.
Nicky, Toronto, Canada
Someone out there thinks McCain is more honest than the Democratic hopefuls. Really? The guy was arguing against waterboarding with Mitt Romney and then ends up supporting Bush in a Senate bill about waterboarding.
The only thing that can save the Democrats is a joint ticket.
Siddik Khan, Kansas City, US
Hillary Clinton should abandon her personal ambition and stand down. Obama clearly has the moral edge in this contest and has the ability to push the Republicans out of office for a very long time. His vision for America will return the nation to the ethics and values that we once all admired.
Colin, Carmarthen, UK
The problems with Hillary and Obama have little or nothing to do with race or gender; Condoleeza RIce would be an excellent candidate. Their problems are poor economic comprehension and a disregard for the public's memory or cognizance. And for that, they will lose.
Michael Lyster, Libertyville, IL, US
Good column. The Clintons see the Democratic Party as their own and they cannot accept that this young politician has risen to challenge what was thought to be "Hillary's turn" at the presidency. Once he is nominated, most Democrats will come home and rally to defeat McBush.
Don Doyle, Columbia, SC, USA
The difficulty Obama had with the "tough" questioning in his last debate and his complaints about being questioned on those essential issues reveals that not only is he NOT ready to lead a nation,.... he isn't the right guy no matter how much experience he may gain in the future.
Mike Fleming, Boston, USA
I have always thought that Europeans are generally more anti-war than Americans simply because they have the luxury (afforded by America itself) for being so. I might be against war in all instances, too, if I knew someone else was there to pull me out of a scrape if need be.
Sharyn, Brevard,, North Carolina
The Americans have created the present mess in Iraq. The issue is not how and when to pull out but how to get rid of the mess that was not there before the invasion and occupation.
Further, it is yet to be convinced that Americans are ready to elect a mixed-race or female president.
Deji, Hamilton, Bermuda
Come on Baker... President George Bush has been commander in chief of a war that Congress authorized and gives money to (now a Democrat Congress), it's not quite as unpopular as you make it out to be (polling data is all over the place), and if the US is in a recession, it's just recently and mild.
Kyle, Detroit, MI, USA
The problem with the Democrats is that their party has been hi-jacked by far-left liberals. And liberalism is not the values of mainstream America. America will come down to these 2 parties. #1 The Far-Left and #2 The Rest of America.
G-Dawg, Cleveland, OH, U.S.A.
I raised my hand for Obama, defended him on Wright/Michelle believed in him. 22 of us went to the caucus in my district, 9 Obama supporters have now joined the 5 Clinton supporters because of Obama's own words. We will vote McCain if need be. We cling to our faith, guns and our vote. dont insult us
Michelle F. , Des Moines, Iowa, USA
Harry Truman actually had lower popularity scores than George Bush - so much for evaluating American Presidents based on current popular whim. It's a meaningless exercise. History will always be the judge. Bush II will be treated much more kindly in the future.
Martin Gray, Miami, FL/USA
It is very interesting to listen to Europeans comment on US politics. Most seem, unfortunately, Liberal in tone but that is post war Europe.
IMHO Hillary would probably be fine as a President but I personal loathe her and her husband. They are classic sociopaths. I will vote McCain.
Mike, SanFrancisco, USA
The Democrats created their own nightmare with their primary rules. Clinton would be tough in Nov., but Obama will get the nomination because of the fear blacks will flee the party if he dosen't.
McCain will win fairly easy no matter the polls now. He's the most honest and real of the 3.
Joshua, Buckeye, Az/USA
British General Elections are usually fought by the incumbent -who's always liable to be given a kicking (deserved or not). The fact that McCain isn't Dubya could be the Republican Party's "get out of jail free" card. After all, that's all Clinton and Obama really have going for them.
Ken Leyland, Liverpool, U.K.
Well for all you readers without a vote, you can say what you want. But for me, with a vote, this article hits the nail on the head. I am so disappointed with the Republicans , that I stated I would never vote for them again! Yet here come the Democrats again, with two seriously flawed candidates.
STEVE, MIAMI BEACH,
Fear not, Mr. Baker. The big fat knight in shining armor, Sir Al Gore, will charge in at the last minute and push those two brawling peasants aside to save the Democrat cause. He doesn't like Hillary, so look for Obama to be his Sancho Panza as his VP.
David, Edison, USA
The Democrats lost seats in the U.S. Senata and House of Reps in 1994, 1996, 1998 & 2000 -- i.e, in each of the federal elections during which Bill Clinton was in the White House. Now it's Hillary's turn to attempt to benefit herself at the ultimate expense of the Democratic Party as a whole.
Tadgh M., Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Many years ago, after I'd given voice to the typical but well-meant political thoughts of a 15-year old liberal, a well-respected and much-love aunt of mine said to me "One day, when you grow up and become a human being, you'll be a Republican". Now 47, sadly, I believe she was right.
R Rocheleau, Worthing, UK
Everyone except the Republicans are calling for withdrawal from Iraq and end to war. But Hilary alone has declared war with a threat to obliterte Iran.
When will we have world peace? Chances are receding again.
Mahi, London, UK
Only recently has the American press started to question Obama (instead of fawning over him), thereby revealing just how weak he is when out of his scripted (and vacuous) "hope" and "change" comfort zone. Furthermore, his tax plans are hopeless.
Audacious indeed to run for Pres without experienc
Laura, London, UK
The concensus on CNN is that the extended exposure of the two candidates in the media will actually help the eventual winner as they are constant reminders of their presence in the race. Your prejudice for Obama is unjustified and you must know that Hillary and Bill are the real culprits and losers.
LAKSHMAN PARDHANANI, GOA, India
What a trashy article. It is no accident you had to rephrase Obama's 'bitter' comments in order to create the tone you are suggesting was contained in the original. He was trying to make a serious point but it was poorly phrased and hence a blunder. Cheap journalism makes politics cynical.
George, Berlin,
Actually, I think the Democrats had a candidate who would have wiped the floor with McCain...Joe Biden, just like another Joe (Lieberman) would have cleaned W's clock in 2004. But the Dems are REALLY REALLY bad at picking winners.
Rob, Berlin, Germany
Republicans are so HATED and the damage they have done to America so visible, that which ever democrat wins the nomination will win the Presidency as well, hands down. The Media, all now owned by the Rich, are writing all in their power to divide the Dems, so that McCain can win. Won't work guys.
victor compton, Cherbourg, France
The Times coverage of this race has been uncharacteristically poor, pretty much to a man. Every other quality paper at least manages to get a basic grip on how the race is actually unfolding. Gerard Baker seems to get his analysis solely from the New York Post (the US equivalent of The Sun)
Alan Black, London, UK
Clearly McCain already is far too old. to be US President.
Republicans therefore essentially will be voting for a Vice President this November.......Petraeus??.....unless things go wrong between now and then in the Middle-East.
For example a friend of N.Korea explode an other bomb??
Michael Blatchford, Bath , UK
http://hasslington.blogspot.com
...if you care for the real (and not the post-colonial British culturally-crafted...or go-go American culturally crafted) story; I realize that most people don't care to face reality, so if you don't view it, I'll understand....
Hasslington, St. Paul, USA
america is looking for a father figure
a bit like their tv anchors, mccain is white, elderly, male. And has an anglo name
why is it always the default position of articles like this that the people know best? isn't it a catastrophe that the worlds foreign policy is decided in iowa rather than london
peter, london,
I disagree. Polls still show either Clinton or Obama beating McCain (albeit by a small margin) even after weeks of negative news about both of them. When this is over we'll look back and say this period where he's yet to be seriously confronted was the highpoint of the McCain Campaign.
Alex Parsons, London,
As a Brit expat living in Athens I agree with the main thrust of this excellent piece but I cannot understand why those who run the Democratic party haven't already intervened to call this internecine strife to a halt. If McCain wins we're all doomed to four more years of a Western military crusade.
Dr David Green, Athens, Greece
The real blame for the dearth of unity in the Democratic party lies with the leadership behind the scenes: the Democratic National Committee and its chairman.
Had they cracked the whip and called everybody to come to Jesus in the first place, they'd have an unbeatable candidacy and platform.
Rick Hepner, Salt Lake City, USA
There is also one more explanation: An honest political assessment of the Clintons that Senator Obama has too many vulnerabilities to beat McCain in November; and that - for the good of the country - it is imperative for Democratic voters to make an informed decision now, before it is too late.
Agron A, Boston, USA
It's hard for those outside of America to understand that while they believe there needs to be a new direction they are looking for a new direction in the right way. There is alot more patriotism and loyalty to ones country than one might believe. The problem is with Obama is he does understand it
Timms, Oregon, USA
Everything was fine for the Democrats until an inexperienced junior senator decided he couldn't wait and threw his hat in the ring. He may make a good President one day but not now. Someone described him as 'an empty suit'. This is precisely what he is. All words and no substance. Just listen to him
Eileen Roberts, Canberra, Australia
DemocRATS are like crabs in a barrel. Just when one of them starts climbing out, the other drag him/her down.
The sad truth is that the only reason anyone is talking about Obama is because he's black. If he were white man saying same things w/ same resume nobody would even consider him.
Sam, NYC, USA
All three candidates are seriously flawed, but one thing is for sure: Barack Obama will never win a general election. Nominating candidates like him is the reason the Democrats have held the White House for only 12 of the last 40 years.
Catherine, Chicago,
All 3 candidates have very serious percieved flaws in the minds of the American public.;Race,Gender,Age and past baggage.
For me, no one knows what Hilary stands for,believes in or who she is.She will do and say anything in order to get the nomination and subsequent election to be President.
joseph shepherd, bedford, UK
The Democratic candidates have been successful in one thing dividing the party in two.
Robert Tilford, McCracken, USA, Kansas
The Democrats do not want to win. If they won the Presidency,
then in two years they would loose the House and Senate as
they did in the 1990s. The real power in the US is in the House
where all of the money is spent. Next, is the Senate where the
corporation control what law are passed.
John, Placentia, OC California
The Democrats are disunited and undisciplined and as we know, disunited parties don't win elections. The Republicans may have lead the US in the wrong direction, but at least they have been leading!!
I believe that Senator Obama is refreshingly inspiring, just a great shame he is a democrat.
Donovan Wright, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom
Well said. Thanks!
Richard Szental, Melbourne, Australia
No one has lost anything yet.
Coming from someone who has supported Bush for the last 8 years, it's clear who the loser is.
F.S.Summers, NY,
Sounds about right to me. Clinton was an unelectable figure to start with and Obama inspired and then fell. McCain just has to sit there and sound magisterial and he will win.
Neil Murphy, cromer,