Some of us caught on to Obama's game early. Thankfully many more have begun to measure him realistically.

Do not assume that the young voter cohort is blinded by Obama's celebrity. They are capable of assessing a candidate. My young associates prefer Mac!

Dana, Dallas, TX, USA

One thing you failed to mention is that many of us Democrats have stopped watching the mainstream media, stopped reading the mainstream newspapers, because of media bias. We turned to the internet to educate ourselves and found Obama lacking.

Beverly, Pine Knot, USA

I wouldn't be so depressed. This race is healthy. Fidel Castro was an underdog, received an excellent education and was of one of the most charismatic leaders in the world. Should anyone have put their trust in him?

Anna-Maria, Toronto, Canada

Is there Racism in America? Of course there is. there is racism in every country in the world.
99.9% 0f Black Americans are going to Vote for Obama simply because he's black.
The majority of the rest of us will vote against Obama because he's an empty suit.
Guess which group will be labeled racist

Bill, Boston, U.S.,

What makes anybody think that Hillary, at this point, would board the HBO Titanic?

Maxbert, Seattle,

The analysis is grossly incomplete without mentioning the ever lingering racism among white Americans, still bound to stereotypes and mistrust of an intelligent, charismatic black politician. Its all very depressing.

Nevin Blumer, vancouver,

In an amazing answer to prayer, we have the chance to choose Obama. His physical presence, intelligence, and innate
fairness can effect groups in our own country and improve our image overseas - both critically important for the next generation. Pushing people around will cause future damage.

mlh, memphis, usa

Running for President as a Democrat is like herding chickens. You just can't get the whole herd moving in one direction, and you look silly (vague, flip-floppy, disingenuous, to cite the last three elections) trying. If the Dems lose this one, they once again have no one to blame but themselves.

David Starnes, Asheville, North Carolina

Obama will be president if he can take Ohio. Hillary can deliver it but he will never choose her.

robert, Pasadena, CA,

Go on, undersetimate Obama. That's exactly what he needs to win. That's exactly what will get the under-30 crowd to the ballot box, and believe you me, they will revolutionize America.

The bigger concern is, will President Obama be as daring and wise and effective as we think? What if he's a dud?

Gary W, Palo Alto, CA, USA

To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the death of Barack Obama have been greatly exaggerated.

In support of his prediction that Obama is on a losing streak, Mr Baker fails to consider that the first polls giving McCain an edge followed Obama's week long absence from the race while in Hawaii.

RP, Edinburgh,

Mr Baker assumes that Barack Obama cannot stand up to close scrutiny while John McCain can...I don't think so but we shall see. Anyway, the Obama candidacy is not about the man, although it might look that way becausof the media spotlight. His candidacy is about rediscovering the promise of the US

RP, Edinburgh,

Look at the primaries. Obama was crushed by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, the longest primary. He also lost to her in the other primaries where she had time to tear him apart. The longer Obama has to keep cheerleading for himself, hope, and change, the closer he gets to losing. Go McCain!

Francis, Greenwich, CT, USA

"Gullible" Americans is right with this Obama candidate. He is feeding the liberal, leftist false promises that he can not fulfill 100%. And his recent past connections to anti-American radicals speaks to his true character and agenda that he is not sharing with the voters that support him. Sad.

Bill , san francisco, usa

Protect me and don't spend my money. That's what I'm looking for in a President. I don't trust, just say "No" Bama to fulfill either of those expectations. I think a lot of folks are beginning to come to the same realization.

J.R. , Los Angeles,

Actually, I think the current situation was easily predicted quite some time ago when Obama couldn't maintain his momentum in the primaries after a few previously unknown facts about him began to surface. The DNC has blown it once again, but listening to themselves instead of the voters.

mhhunt, Decatur, GA, USA

This rock star act is beginning to look and smell like the morning after a Spinal Tap concert.
The closer we get to election day and the more threatening our old rival the once and future USSR becomes, the more America realizes that while we've had our fun,we need
a grown up to lead us!

Scott, Kings Point, USA

Your fogetting the steady drumbeat of negativity against Republicans that the media is putting on. They will keep at it until they get their desired outcome. It doesnt matter if its true or not. The American people are not stupid however and time after time, they make the right call.

Don, Lake Stevens, WA, USA

The attacks on Obama by the attack dogs of the Rove/McCain campaign machine have been fair? What universe has Baker been living in? Right at the outset, any positive, any talent, any intelligence exhibited by Obama has been reviled and demeaned by McBush and his smear campaign. Fair????

Gladys Lujan, Tucson, USA

What is happening to the OBAMA campaign? Did they roll over and drop dead? The GOP has crushed him in August. IF OBAMA does not pick a good VEEP, his campaign may be over before September. Obama needs Hillary as VP or he is toast unless he FIGHTS BACK and mudslings the way the GOP has done.

Jose, San Francisco,

How things have changed so quickly! OBAMA is in trouble and if he doesn't recognize it, then it is true that he IS OUT OF TOUCH with Americans. He need to JUMPSTART his campaign. I see an OBAMA-CLINTON ticket as the answer.

Joe, Fresno,

Obama appears to be a decent human being, but most Americans expect our president to put them, their safety and their welfare ahead of all other considerations. We will not have a president who isn't sure what what's worth defending and, if necessary, dying for. Sorry everyone: get over it !

Hugh , Annapolis, Md., USA

Speaking as an American voter, I’d say there are a few things you need to understand about American politics and voters. First and foremost, (god help us) we tend to vote for charming folksy guys who pretend to be just like us. You know, someone you could have a beer with even if you never will:

TKeefe, Boston, Massachusetts

Despite John Ledbury's complaint that Baker's essay isn't objective reporting is from my perspective in error, although fo be fair Baker's column is one of opinion, not quite the same thing as a straight reporting of facts.

In any event, Baker describes the situiation clearly & accurately, IMO.

Dave Livingston, El Paso County, Colorado, USA

The author nailed it - the McCain ads humorously mocking his rock star status are driving the point home. "It's time for change" - please explain, Mr. Obama, what your 'change' actually entails. A recent evaluation of Obama's plans showed close to a TRILLION $$ in new spending. Who pays for it????

Chris, Thousand Oaks, CA,

Sorry to have to break this to you, John Ledbury, but Mr. Baker's article is right on the money. As American voters have begun to ask the tough questions about Barack Obama and have begun to appreciate just how little experience he has, his lead in the polls has evaporated. John McCain will win.

Dan , San Diego, CA, USA

Quote:"Didn't we see him just last month speaking to 200,000 adoring Germans in Berlin? Didn't he get the red carpet treatment in France - "

Let him lead your country..we need a President! Although, I do give him credit for beating Hilliary ;-}

Problem is we have no one worth voting for!

Jean, Sterling, MI, USA

I'm not an American and have no right to comment but for what it's worth I will add my two-penneth. Much of what I hear Mr Obama saying I have heard before from a gentleman named Blair; at the time he too sounded refreshing. Britain's social and economic demise represents the reality. Be warned.

Richard Crow , Warsaw, Poland

Greetings,

As an Independent American voter I wanted to vote Democrat for POTUS this year. Leave it to the DNC to pick such a horribly flawed and weak candidate...AGAIN. Sorry DNC, but Barack Obama is not presidential material. He has no substance, but he can give a powerful speech. McCain it is.

David, Warrington, USA

Spot-on analysis of the campaign here in the USA. I've said all along there's no substance behind the words of change & hope. In the words of Obama's likely VP choice, Sen. Biden - the White House is no place to learn on the job! Obama's in a free-fall since the Euro tour and Mac is back... again!

Jim, Sterling Heights, MI, USA

A great, balanced report! I have recommended this column to my friends, democrat and republican alike.

I wish our own news organizations had more articles like this one!

Thanks!

David Smith, Lake Elsinore, California, USA

Re: economics

The real hurt is the price of oil. America is sitting on at minimum a trillion barrels of oil, not to mention vast swaths of offshore areas that haven't been explored.

The Republicans want to work on everything: new ideas, old resources. For the Democrats only the new ideas count.

M. Simon, Rockford, Illinois, USA

Obama wants to lead us to a European style Welfare state. Many of us Americans see the cronic unemployment in Europe and say " no thanks".

Tom, Neenah, USA

That was a brilliant piece of writing. Superb insight and very funny. You must be english.

Kris, USA,

Your people are kept safe you when you dont send them kill women and children in their homes in countries you have no business been in the first place no matter what lies and big words you use to excuse your actions. Usually eventually what goes around comes around.

Mark Bolan, Limassol , Russia

Indeed, you are having your say! The white dominant structure in this country has had their say for 400 years to the serious detriment of every person of color; But in the final analysis of this presidential election; GOD WILL HAVE HIS SAY; AND IT WILL BE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE

janie jenkins, Houston, USA

I would like to see a little objective reporting. It's very obvious who everyone working for the Grauniad and Newsnight would vote for, but why does this interest me?

John Ledbury, Kings Lynn, England

Gardis - You mean the Bush that said about Putin "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward & trustworthy & we had a very good dialogue, I was able to get a sense of his soul" you foolish neocon!

Oh, & please realise, this is a UK paper, liberal aint a dirty word.

Matt, Birmingham, UK

Mr. Baker, as an American I have to say your analysis about the current political situation in the US and about Obama in particular is spot-on. Both the European press and the American press seem to want to anoint the Obamessiah president before a vote is cast, but the voters have the final say.

Dave, Austin, Texas

Every brand has an emotional and rational component. Obama made the case for the emotional, but not the rational. In this time of significant military upheaval around the world, we see that Obama has zero military experience. Zero. And he is pro-infanticide, and therefore cannot win the election

BellaMia, Cherry Hill, US

The Ossetian flare-up is this election's Iran-Contra. With Randy Scheunemann and the Israeli advisors standing in the wings, Sakaashvili was cheered on with predictable results. Oh no, here comes Cold War 2, guess we need a war-time president again. Watch "Wag the Dog" and weep for America. Wake up.

bob hobbes, Spokane, USA

Mmm, i'm going to go out on a limb and guess you hate Obama's guts for some reason? Just reading between the lines of your most partisan piece.
Is it because McCain is your doppleganger?

Chris, Prague,

Barack Obama is an empty suit. He has no connection with the hoi poloi and cannot fathom them.

I saw an interview on TV with a Indiana farmer from a democrat county. Asked if he would vote for Obama, he replied, "I already have a savior; I will vote for a president."

Barry is toast

Chris, Bloomington, Indiana, USA

A) Major lack of credentials to lead the US.
B) Judeo/Christian? Never to some folks, not with Hussein as your middle name!
C) A divided Democratic party that will not heal
D) John McCain is running a strong campaign
E) #1 issue the economy not change and slogans
F) Rev. Wright and Black anger

John in Chicago, Chicago, USA

Hussein Obama, like all Liberals everywhere, is symbolism over substance. Also, he is self absorbed, narcissistic, and majorly thin skinned. Liberals everywhere, despite the constant failure of everything they propose, always believe they are smarter than everyone else. Obama is no different.

kestrel, Billings, USA

Hey Dale in Australia... What dialog did Russia have with Georgia? Do you also recommend that Georgia open up a dialog with Russia as the Russian tanks are overtaking their country? What would you say to Putin if he started rolling tanks into your neighborhood? Please stop?

Tim, Chicago, USA

It's the Russians wot won it. for McCain By invading a small nation and turning their missiles on Poland they are setting up a re-run of 1980 Reagan/Carter election. Americans are in no mood to 'hug the world'. Didn't we have a good Olympics back then too?

Gus Swan, London, UK

If you think that those of us who think this country is headed in the wrong direction think that Obama will take us in a better direction, you're not talking to real live Americna voters. With his big spending plans, Obama is more of the same and perhaps promising to be worse than George W Bush.

Phil, Salina, KS, USA

"Obama has raised millions of new young voters"

They're not voters until they actually go out and vote; something the young tend not to do -- despite their eternal enthusiasm.

Craig Howard, Buffalo, NY, USA

August is not even over yet. Summer polls are always up in the air. The economy will take precedent over national security. In the close race of 04 bush was helped by the biggest problem in voters minds was the security. People are paying more attention to the economy. Obama will barley win.

Al, Hacienda Heights,

This is a great piece. I have had a few axes to grind with McCain, especially campaign finance reform. I am an independent and was interested in Obama. But all of the realities written here about perception vs reality are coming clear. I want answers.

eric, New York NY, USA

Whom have we spoken to more than Vladimir Putin, you foolish liberals. And look where it got us. Bush should have told him, "one false move and I place missiles in every east european country, and all you'll be able to do about it is alert the New York Times."

Gardis, Greenwich, CT

Surely you mean Frodo Baggins, not the aged Bilbo. Unless it's just The Hobbit you like.

William, Dublin, Ireland`

Barack Obama: the man about nothing but himself. He is sooooo precious.

Jordan, Vernon, Alabama, United States

Senator Obama is not having a problem with Democratic voters. Neither is he having a problem with Republican voters. The reality is that the people will speak by their voting at the election.

Beverly Jurenko, Brussels, Belgium

There are no votes in London, England; Paris, France; or Berlin, Germany. Much as European liberals might wish it were otherwise.

Tim, Kingston,

Just as in the Obama-Hillary Clinton contest, this is an extraordinary exercise in hard-fought battles for voters, and journalists should underline how good these two contests have been in democracy.

David, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Obama will not win. In spite of all the discontentment with the current Republican president & the lackluster campaign of grumpy old John McCain, Obama is running even with McCain! And don't forget, White people lie in polls when race is an issue. The reality is that Obama is already behind.

John Hewitt, Ferdinand , Indiana, U.S.A.

If being willing to talk to your "enemies" isn't going to keep your people safe, Gerard, what do you suggest? Perhaps more of the Bush administrations policy of aggravation and alienation.

Grow up... of course dialog should always be the first step regardless of your politics.

Dale, Australia,

Obama has raised millions of new young voters, who, unlike in the past ,are determined to vote for Obama on Nov 4th. It is a pity that political pundits are missing this. This Obama faithfuls will tilt the outcome to propel Obama into the White house on Jan'20th,2009

L.K.Balasubramanian., Avenel, NJ, USA

Good analysis. The American political landscape is complicated enough without trying to make it fit some people's preconceptions. Kudos for avoiding that trap.

Lawrence, San Diego, USA

I've said that when people start paying attention to WHAT he says, rather than HOW he says it, he would begin losing support. That's what is happening now, and it started in Berlin, with his Apology to the GERMANS, of all people!

You Brits should be able to identify with that.

Nick in Virginia, Alexandria, Va USA

I don't know where Mr. Baker gets his information over there, but from Chicago I'd say it's pretty accurate. That is a very good assessment of the picture.

Also, a lot of us are looking to the VP choices. If McCain picks a liberal anything, he's dead. If O'Bama picks anyone, he's overshadowed.

Jim McCracken, Twin Lakes, WI, USA