It didn't take a genius to realise that the solution to the equation “Hurricane plus New Orleans plus Republican Party” was potential political trouble on a grand scale.

So as Hurricane Gustav bore down on the Gulf Coast, advisers to John McCain quickly realised that they had no choice but to throw over their plans for the Republican National Convention that was scheduled to open in St Paul, Minnesota, yesterday. If they had gone ahead with their schedule for a four-day political rally, complete with emotional farewells from George W. Bush and Dick Cheney and a series of rhetorical assaults on their political opponents, it would have looked grotesquely insensitive and inappropriate. Even though it seems New Orleans at least has avoided a repeat of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a normal convention could only have reminded people of the Republican Administration's inept handling of its response then.

It was a fairly easy decision, then, to downgrade the convention, skipping most of yesterday's business and possibly today's too, and turning the event into a national expression of financial and emotional support for the beleaguered Gulf region.

The strange coincidence of Gustav's arrival, three years to the weekend after Katrina, and the most important event in the Republican calendar, may still have significant ramifications.

Michael Moore, the left-wing film director, described it as proof that God exists, but there may also be more secular consequences. Though it might sound crass to posit a political gain from a destructive hurricane, there are at least three potentially positive consequences for the Republicans.

First, it takes President Bush out of a political setting that, with his approval ratings in the basement, might have been awkward for the Republican campaign.

Mr Bush would certainly have played a useful role at the convention in firing up a party base that is not wholly persuaded of the virtues of Senator McCain. But with the Republican candidate's unexpected selection last week of the conservative Sarah Palin, the Alaska Governor, as his running-mate, he had already taken care of that. Compared with having President Bush on television receiving the plaudits of excited Republicans, images of him with sleeves rolled up, dealing with a natural disaster, are a distinct gain.

A second potential advantage is that Senator McCain can present himself as a national leader in a crisis. Along with his running-mate, he has been skipping around the Gulf region offering solace and support.

The timing has been more awkward for Barack Obama. It's customary to disappear from the scene during your opponent's convention but the low profile the Democrat aimed to keep this week may not help to shore up his credentials as a national figure helping to solve a crisis.

A third possible political gain for the Republicans is the contrast between the Government's handling of this hurricane and Katrina. Fema (the Federal Emergency Management Agency), whose chief, Michael “Heckuva Job” Brown, received so much opprobrium for his role in the Katrina rescue, has been replaced by the more reassuring David Paulison. And politicians of all stripes have been praising the work of Bobby Jindal, the Republican Governor of Louisiana, for his painstaking planning and effective response to Gustav, and implicitly contrasting it with the indecision and chaos of three years ago led, if that is the word, by Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, the Democrat Governor.

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