America is at a point in it's history where it cannot afford yet another President who is afraid, or unable to lead. At very point on the compass troubles abound and the public debate resounds with who can best skin a moose and what religion a candidate really practices.

Don Charobee, Elizabeth, Colorado, USA

It seems to be shaping up now--a police state with Obama. In Mo. police and lawyers to protect Obama from misleading ads...
His attack squad spammed a local Chicago station twice when guests were to speak of his Chicago days -letters to stop the AIP from running ads about his connection to Ayers.

pecanpii, Chicago, USA

How do you cut taxes for 95percent of the population when only 60percent pay taxes? You give tax credits to people who don't pay taxes. If that's not redistribution of wealth--what is??

pecanpii, Chicago, USA

Well, can you imagine what would happen if we had 4 more years of Bush policies if McCain wins? And McCain being 72 years old with health problems and then we really end up with Palin brain???

Lorraine, Juneau, US

Make Bush be president again! Why should Democrats always have to save capitalism?

Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales

You have no idea what is going to happen. Predicting a one term disaster here is easy and predictable. Predictions as to what is going to shake out in the next four years is just nonsense. Bill Clinton was faced with dire economic straights when he took office. So was Roosavelt.

Patrick, chicago, IL

How about Bill Clinton was the bad President, and Bush was the great one? Does that fit the template? Probably not- if you read the comments, only super liberal Democrats can be great Presidents. Like Carter. LBJ. FDR. Wilson.

Kyle, Detroit, MI, USA

Well I couldn't agree more with you. Anyone who still wants to win this mess is a true idiot. All further comments unnecessary.

Karl B. Nowak, Stockholm, Sweden

Ecomomist #101 - your numbers are big but are they in red or in black ink?

ben trovato , cape town ,

Hardly a debate goes by without a Yank angrily reminding us that Uncle Sam saved us from becoming German speakers and while it would be extremely bad manners not to show appreciation (those awful Germanic sentences written as one word!) one has to ask - was it an act of pure US ultraism?

ben trovato , cape town ,

Ross remember the arming of England by FDR

ben, rutherford, us

Ross remember the arming of England by FDR

ben, rutherford, us

While I generally agree with your arguement here there are some specifics you are incorrect about. Tax cuts will not only be possible but are likely to be necessary. Studies have shown that regardless of the tax rate the Fed gov't will get 19% of GDP in revenues.

Bob, Phoenix, USA

Reagan? Please. His de-regulation caused this mess; FDR is rolling in his grave.

Ben, Watford, United Kingdom

anthony

Sorry to burst your arrogant bubble , but the last time the United States left the world stage to mind it's own business after WWI which of course was caused by your foolish ancestors . They were dragged back in again by Europe's infatuation with fascism , Nazism and pacifism .

Wil, Chicago, IL

Both candidates have fatal , almost Homeric flaws.I have no dog in this fight as a Canadian (big cold place in the north) but both candidates seem to think that the solution to almost any problem is big government on every issue. Bush III indeed - watch the pork blossom in a bipartisan way!

John, Penhall, Canada

Regarding apocalyptic challanges being met, you neglected to mention; following the Kennedy/Johnson war, which ran the USA into the ground, Nixon's response of splitting off China from Russia, and in so doing, drove the final nail into the Soviet Union's coffin.

Geoffrey Letson, Wilmington, NC, USA

I'm from Michigan and I've never seen such an exciting campaign. Obama is part FDR, Kennedy (all of them) and Lincoln. Difficult times have a curious way of giving rise to great leaders. All across the US record numbers of people are registering to vote, mostly for Obama! Landslide victory!

Gary

Gary Czerwinski, Douglas, Michigan, USA

McCain will also suffer from being linked to Bush, despite being much more centrist in his veiws, and his surly personality will do nothing to undo that opinion. Obama will suffer when the world finds his focus to be almost entirely on domestic issues, and how he can improve life for poor Americans.

John, New York, USA

The USA Economy last year was 23 Trillion dollars with a net asset value of 237 Trillion dollars .
Home ownership in America is larger than 167 countries put together.
Making America wealthier than Russia , China , Japan , France , Italy , South Korea , Iran and 112 other Countries put together.

The Economist #101 , doswell , VA

Where is this 700 billion coming FROM?? Will it be
borrowed or printed? If the former,the US annual
balance of payments deficit is already billions in the red,how and who precisely will cover the annual interest payments on all of this? If the latter,God help
the greenback.

John Vestey, Porto Ercole, Italy

And yet with all the problems facing the U.S., we'd still rather live here than anywhere else. We appreciate Europe's concerns about our future, but don't worry, we've faced problems like this before and emerged as the greatest nation the world has ever seen. USA! USA! USA!

Rex, Boston, United States of America

Baker, your analogy is of course once again, totally wrong. After Hoover, FDR won (4) times, after Carter, Reagan won twice and after Bush43 any president is gonna look good by comparison just by <b><i>showing up.</i></b> Bush43 easily being the worst president in u.s history!

take care, blessings

shiloh, Kent, Ohio,

> It's an insult to Lincoln and Roosevelt to put him[Reagan) in the same sentence.

Well, Reagan cleaned the mess left by Roosevelt in East Europe, so he was a great president.

Em, Norwich, UK

Pure madness to laud FDR for carrying on with and increasing the severity of Hoover's malignant inference with the economy, which led to an over decade long depression.

Crow, Minneapolis, US

Mr. Baker, you omitted George Herbert Walker Bush. His great failure was in being defeated when standing for election in1992. That event allowed in the Clinton crowd, whose demands for dodgy loans in the name of "affordable housing" laid the path to the current sorry state of financial affairs.

Dennis Eagan, Colorado Springs, US

Cynthia,
It's inaccurate to say Reagan was 'terrible', but it is true that Lincoln and Roosevelt where head and shoulders above all other presidents. Reagan does not belong in that group.

Brian, Lakewood, CO,

You make a good point here -
BUT PLEASE - Reagan among "men to match..."? You GOT to be kidding. Reagan is the source of the current disasters! He:
-Installed the Taliban in Afghanistan
-tripled the deficit
-The S&L crisis was a model for the current one - caused by same reckless deregulation. NO!!

jmmx, Portland, OR,

this was a plan by the theocons to destroy American democracy as we have known it and convert it to a theocracy run be the rich for the rich. every step they took to make this happen from Reagn to Shrub II is clear and undeniable.

greg prull, eugene,

Very interesting. Citing all the problems a US president will face only highlights that the rest of the world relies on good ole Uncle Sam to do it all. Saddam Hussein. Taliban. Al Qaeda. Malaria. Mr. Baker must be hinting that it will take Hillary Clinton in 2012 to meet all these challenges

WHSmith, Denver, US

Mr. Baker's analysis is right on point! History tells us that organizations, whether they be businesses or governments will not fix themselves until it is absolutely apparent that are truly broken. Example, the UK prior to Margaret Thatcher, as well as the other examples cited. The US is close.

Michael, San Francisco, USA

Baker is right on. I'm a little surprised at how many people have drunk the Obama Kool-aid, and actually view the man as a savior. It will take someone a lot less conventional than Obama or McCain to see the country through the present disaster.

Mike, Minneapolis, MN

The USA is a strong country and will get over this temporary glitch in its economic growth. The real challenge, I believe, will be io whether the country establishes long-term legislatively solutions that have teeth in them and can permanently help the country to avoid the samething happening again

Craig Stimmel, St. Albans, Hertfordshire

Stephen Green of Correns - dream on. Americans have seen far worse-- 1968 for starters, also 1979. These regular predictions of some rival overtaking the US-- first the eternal USSR, then Japan and, oh did I say Japan? I meant China!-- forget that China's banks are a shambles, its economy very weak.

tom, San Jose CA, USA

Mr. Greene:

And what phase is France in? Post Post Empire?

Tribal units? In your dreams, pal.

Butch, Clearwater, USA

If Mr. Baker is looking for historical parallels in U.S. history, here is another: The 15-Year-Plus-Or-Minus Bad Times.

1861-76, ended with "election" of Hayes.

1929-45, ended with WWII.

1968-82, ended with imposed recession.

Might even throw 1776-89 in there, ended with new constitution.

D. Sean Rowley, Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

FDR a great president? You're kidding, right? He was the guy who ensured the Depression lasted 10 years longer than it needed to with his price controls, state intervention, attempted bank bailouts and debasement of the currency.

You call that great? Maybe that's why we are seeing a repeat today..

Adam, London, UK

Thanks to Wall Street, this election won't be about abortion, Gay, God and Guns. My 401-K lost at least $50K, and my house another $100K - if we can have a election about real issues instead of pandering to the Evengelicals and gun nuts, I would consider that loss well worth it!

J. Ram Ray, Silver Spring, USA

yeah scotty, but 'nuclear iran', 'psychotic north korea', russia 'et al', have a problem with the US and her hegemony. i hope america becomes more isolationist - it would make the world a better place.

Anthony, Trieste, Italy

To quote William Goldman - “NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING.” I didn't vote for him, but seriously, who could have predicted totally the mess Bush II made of things? Who knew that FDR would be the giant he was, laying the groundwork for the flush 50-60s through social programs that revitalised the US?

Susan, Los Angeles, USA

You are correct that in times of crisis, you often find both great presidents and failed presidents. However, I wouldn't say that the crisis "produces" a failed presidency - it's just as often the other way around. We already had the failed president. His name was Bush. We're due a new FDR.

David, Philadelphia, USA

This election comes down to a choice between arsenic and strychnine. There is going to be a post-election convulsion no matter who wins. Consensus politics died before the 1992 election. Moreover, the 2 party system after this election will permanently fracture into a dozen differnt parties.

John W, Atlanta, USA

I'm a McCain man... But I'm also finishing up my PhD studying the cycles of American politics and there is almost no hope that McCain will navigate his presidency successfully. On the other hand, Obama has a very good chance of serving two terms AND having his heir apparent follow him as president.

Tex, Austin,

The outcome may have more to do with the electorate itself. With the exception of Lincoln, those other two great presidents had a much more cohesive nation--namely one that backed THEM. We're so divided now; I'm not sure the next prez has a chance of uniting us to heal our many wounds. Great article

Corey, Kansas City, Mo., USA

The next President but one of the US may be"great" but only if he recognizes that he will be presiding over a country that has enterd its post empire phase. How he or she handles that will detemine whether or not the country remains as a unitary whole or breaks up into its underlying tribal units.

Stephen Green, Correns, France

At his age, it is hard to imagine Mr McCain serving and surviving to successful terms as president and therefore the logical choice is the younger and more energetic canadidate in Mr Obama.

Richard Francis, Mississauga , Canada

The US government has allowed greedy corporations to "buy the rights" (via campaign contributions) to exploit the American economy and the American people. What George W has begun, McCain will surely complete, so long as Americans vote based upon race rather than common sense.

Marcil, Baton Rouge, USA

I've been arguing for the last year that, depending on who wins this November, January 2013 will see the inauguration of Mark Warner (D-VA) or Bobby Jindal (R-LA), begining what will be 8 years of America's first good presidency in 25 years.

Dave, Richmond, VA,

@ Dan Schwartz "This next Presidential term will have *big* consequences, with the very real possibility that the next president may get to appoint up to 3 Supreme Court justices, shaping the next 30 years."


Absolutely - and God help the US if that president turns out to be called Palin.

Ron Graves, Birkenhead, UK

Bush set the standard for an ignorant, self-destructive, incompetent chief executive. Any administration that has coherent policies and constructive approaches to issues can do better.

Mike, Pittsburgh,

It certainly will be over 4 yrs for the recession to play out and feelgood to return. Is it possible now to be a 'great' politician of any kind, let alone POTUS? If you try to speak to the common people you're a poser or fool, to the rich an elitist or stooge. FDR + Reagan have detractors too...

Techo, London, UK

FDR was not a great president, he is the single most overrated leader the USA has ever had.

His incompetence prolonged the misery of the depression for almost a decade, and his failure to re-arm America meant that they were caught napping when Hitler rose to power.

Ross, Northampton, UK

The USA is known for it's energy, brilliance at innovation & re-invention. They've got huge problems: big business & government are going hand in hand, the religious right are leading them back to the middle ages and the economy is doodoo. But, they'll be back - hopefully without the warmongering.

Cirep G Nol, London,

Mr. Baker is too generous about our past presidents. Abe lincoln had penned an offer for the statuquo to the South but they shelled Fort Sumter a tad prematurely. Once Roosevelt had his programs in place the Stocks fell another 50% after the '29 crash.Reagan was lucky as they all were.....

Steve Elkins, Raleigh, USA

If all the smartest kids who've been enticed by massive saleries to push money around the world had gone & learned science, engineering or IT... we wouldn't be anywhere near a recession.

Mark, Woking, UK

Washington took office in 1789. In 1857 (68 years later), Buchanan took office. Then Lincoln in 1861. In 1929 (68 years later), Hoover took office. Then Roosevelt in 1933. In 2001, (68 years later), Bush II took office. It is definitely time (and right on time) for another great president.

Robert Robbins, Seattle, USA

Ronald Reagan simply does not belong on that list. He was a terrible president, his deregulation policies were the thin end of the wedge that's resulted in this horrible credit meltdown.

It's an insult to Lincoln and Roosevelt to put him in the same sentence.

Cynthia, Media, PA , USA

The world changes. Thus for the first time I believe we will have Bush's TWO-term disaster paving the way for a true giant.

I believe the notion of an administration running a country is going to change. Influential nations will have to work together more than ever to solve the global issues.

James Holbrook, Florence,

Using this logic, would the next UK general election be a good one for David Cameron to lose? How can it be that Demolition Man Brown can possibly be the person to rebuild the fundamentals of Britain and the British economy? You would have a hard time convincing more than 25% of the electorate.

Alan Gooch, Honiton, UK

So GWB with his happy-go-lucky approach on economy and jingoistic approach to foreign policy left lots of unfinished tasks for his successor. So obviously, if next guy fixes most of this stuff, he will be celebrated as one of great presidents. Best luck!

Mladen Matosevic, Helsinki,

Right. Very days days indeed. Can America count on Europe in any meaningful way? Didn't think so. Too many anti-American Europeans.

America may eventually become more isolationist. If so, good luck Europe dealing with a belligerent Russia, Islam, nuclear Iran, Psychotic North Korea, et al.

scotty, NC, USA

Does this whole election not resemble the last two series of the west wing...

The primaries of series six, and now the calling of the two nominees to a bi partisan meeting because of such a serious issue affecting the last days of a outgoign president which will govern the next presidency??

ROb, Manchester, uk

Does either McCain or Obama have what it takes? FDR became President on 4 March 1933 at the height of the Depression. A one-term President no doubt. He went on to become the only 4-term President in the history of America. Is McCain or Obama up there with FDR? The stakes are high, as in 1933.

Jim Lancaster, Brillevast, France

I always felt sorry for Hoover. John Maynard Keynes thought he was the one decent, far sighted delegate at the Versailles Conference. I suppose Harold Macmillan was correct in saying it was "Events, Dear Boy" which make or mar a political leader.

James, St Andrews, UK

"You don't have to loathe President Bush". However, it probably helps. The man makes Nixon look like Kennedy.

Bill Peter, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Gerald this is what is going to happen. the proposal from the house republicans will pass, McCain wins election 410-138, Palin is next Pres. Do you see those red states on your election map spend more time there and you will get a real picture of the USA.

Karl the Truth, Atlanta, USA

And what follows two-term disasters? Almost anyone could be a better President for one term than the two-term disaster we have now--except for someone even more bellicose and more impetuous like McCain.

susan, London, United Kingdom

Oh yeah, FDR was a true giant, spreading socialism far and wide across the US, thus prolonging the Great Depression, not relieving it.

Rich, Middlesbrough,

Or option 2. Invest $700 bn in rebates to people/families investing in alternative energy/fuel efficiency. For example, investing $3,000 in solar thermal hot water heating system, saving 75% of $400 bill, giving a $2,000 rebate - payback in 3 years, with extra $300 to spend after 3 years - + jobs!

Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK

A similar situation exists in the UK. It's next election will be one that no sensible!!! politician would want to win.

Tony Atkins, Cairns, Australia

Bush and his bankers? You need to study a little. The Dems are to the bankers what the Reps are to oil companies.

Tom, mesa, usa

What the US has to face isn't anything compared to what the rest of the world will face in the next century. We're still insulated by an ocean. China will dominate the world's economy - and Terrorism and Neo-Soviet Russia will run riot over Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

John Kantor, St. Petersburg, United States

Always the lefties with knickers a-twist about the Supreme Court. History shows that jurists rarely "shape" much at all. Every president who tried to leave a mark with appointments has thrown up his hands in dismay at verdicts rendered by his choices. Roe vs Wade is settled law. A tired red herring.

Andrew Pandap, New York City,

I somehow doubt that the US going to China with hat in hand to borrow an additional $700B will make any country other than the US look puny!

The US owes almost 10 TRILLION dollars to other countries, mostly Japan and China - that's hardly a sign of US strength.

John Sturgis, White Plains, NY, USA

Interesting side note on the tax cut issue - every time income tax and corporate tax rates have been reduced in the US revenue to the Treasury has *increased*, not decreased. Economic activity is taxed, and cuts increase the activity in the market exponentially. Look at the tax receipts...

Mike, Dallas, USA

Congress refused to let Paulson be the Albert Speer of America. The plan, flawed as it is, will be modified by the next administration. A Wall St. bailout? Wall St. is toast. MS and GS are now commercial banks! The US is still a great country and the next pres might surprise you, Mr. EuroBS !

Peter Adam, Chevy Chase MD, USA

Somebody has to try to hold the fort for David Petraeus in 2013!

Michael Vaughan, Preston,

Dear Mr. Baker, I have read your column with interest for several months, but on this occasion you have been unduly pessimistic. There's no better time for a great president to arise; this campaign has been a true trial of steel, and the victor will surely flourish. Good luck to him.

Musa Okwonga, London,

The one thing this $700bn experience has done is shock China and Russia into realizing how puny they are compared to the US. Russia doesn't even have $700 bn and if China had to pony up $700bn, it would collapse outright. It will be tough on the US, but in the end, it will strengthen the country

Martin Joseph, Atlanta, US

This next Presidential term will have *big* consequences, with the very real possibility that the next president may get to appoint up to 3 Supreme Court justices, shaping the next 30 years.

Period.

Dan Schwartz, Sayreville, NJ, US of A

Bush and his bankers cleaning up and leaving Obama
nothing to work with.
Gormless is doing it in the uk.

Eric, Storlien, Sweden