Gerard Baker, US Editor
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Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, memorably fell to his knees last week to beg Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, to find a way to get his $700 billion bailout plan through Congress.
At the weekend the two leaders presented a slightly more orthodox tableau of cooperation. Beaming in front of reporters in the US Capitol early yesterday, they announced a deal – essentially, in its key elements, not much changed from the one Mr Paulson pleaded for last week.
The final version, which Congress seems likely to approve today, still has plenty of critics. Almost everyone agrees that providing taxpayers’ cash for the banking system is the only way to resolve the financial crisis. But the plan’s opponents voice several objections to this version.
They say that, despite the small improvements inserted by Congress, it is still fundamentally unfair: it makes the taxpayer cover losses caused by the errors of bankers while bank shareholders will still get the lion’s share of their money back, with possible gains. Better by far, they say, would have been to have the Government buy stakes in banks directly. That would not only instantly have given the banking system the capital it needs, but would also share some of the ultimate profits banks make between taxpayers and shareholders. But there is a much more pressing issue raised by some critics. Will this plan even achieve its own objectives? At the root of the Government’s proposal is the calculation that banks are in effect overestimating the scale of the bad assets on their books. Mr Paulson believes that the basic problem is one of liquidity – a short-term lack of confidence in the whole banking sector. Because markets are so jammed now, banks cannot sell their assets and so are forced to value their toxic securities at fire-sale prices.
The Paulson plan, then, works by providing a guaranteed buyer for these assets at a higher price than that at which they are currently valued. The banks pocket the extra money they get by selling to the Government, helping to repair their capital base, and the Government eventually recoups most of the outlay by selling again when the market is normalised. As the market returns to normal, the banks’ other assets also rise in value, further helping their capital.
It is like trying to sell a house in an emergency. If you had to sell your home tomorrow you might not get much for it. But, if you could wait until the market is moving again, you could get a better price.
But what if the problem is not that banks are being forced to value their assets at too low a price, but that they are sitting on massive losses that reflect a collapse in the value of their securities?
If that is the case, then the Treasury’s bailout may not be enough. Some reliable estimates suggest that the losses in the US financial system – at core, reflecting the scale of the downturn in the housing market – may be more than $1 trillion. If the Treasury is buying those bad assets at a little above their current value, it will not be providing anywhere near enough capital for banks, who will still be sitting on massive losses.
If that is the case, Mr Paulson might soon have to go back down on his knees and plead this time with an even higher authority for intervention. The Almighty.
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This Bailout is just WRONG! All those wealtly CEO'S that wrongfully took those millions & billions need to give it back and pay a fine or go to prison! That bailout is so full of pork it oinks! It would take a lot less to forgive the 100 million in defaulted morgatges! Paulson is wrong!
God Help us
Ginger, Phoenix,
This is America ? I cannot believe that this will get through Congress - it is the reverse of everything they stand for
They don't intervene on the environment (it takes care of itself) or gun laws ( it is every Americans God given right to shoot his neighbour)
Only when its oil & $$$
Michael Taylor, Hoddesdon, UK
The banks need to write-off their dodgy loans completely and sell them on an institutional version of EBAY to the highest bidder (they can write-back any gains later). Only then should the govt take equity stakes in the banks, and only those that have been the best run, to recapitalise the system.
Huw Sayer, London, England
On top of dumping their garbage on the American taxpayer, these Banks also get to pay less tax because they sold at a loss!!!
sandra, Hartford ct, USA
so Congress gave in to attempted robbery, very brave, very righteous, very craven
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
The markets have voted with their feet: he is already wrong even before he got started.
anthony, london , england
We are being told it will be a rough ride for the next 20 years here. So, that means rough ride for everyone else. Anyone got a miracle up their sleeve?
VL Collins, Hamilton Ohio, USA
You are completely wrong !
It is Paulson who has to start praying - along with all the other retards - believe me, they ain't gonna escape !
OZ, Perth, Australia
Winter's day car boot sale
Cash only sale, the seller needs cash for food and fuel, and there are very few cash customers on this miserable wet day.
Its got to go. Your grandad says: when you play monopoly, you can lose it all when you cannot pay. Grow vegetables, and wrap up. Good Luck.
Goldfinger, Gloucester, UK
The banksters have pulled off a massive coup by lashing their companies inextricably to the welfare of the economy and making everyone's wealth (such as it is) utterly dependent on their own success. Governments should never have allowed this. Now the banksters can threaten to destroy our savings.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Paulson is wrong! This bailout is a shakedown. Enjoy the depression and the fascism to enforce it. What did you all expect when you turned over the power to create money to a private corporation? The Federal Reserve and its debt-based money must end.
dc, Detroit, MI, USA
Paulsons case to the Almighty looks weak.
Chris, London,
The Paulson Plan is doomed to failure simply because not one bank is coming clean!
There is no God given right that US or UK banks justify the taxpayer bailing them out when management screws up.
This is madness in the extreme and we should now be more worried than ever!
Robert D Marshall, london, UK
Paulson is not wrong. Problem is banks cannot raise capital because unknown losses may consume it rapidly. Take the unknown losses out of the equation and then we can move on.
Yes, after this the banks may still be under-capitalised. But with the "unknowns" gone, they can raise more capital.
Alistair Nicholls, Manchester, UK
A case of the winners smile, the losers make their own arrangements!
Graham, Littlehampton,
"Some reliable estimates".. who is kidding whom? There are no reliable estimates. That only happens when the banks have to face a judge in a Chapter 11 proceeding. Which is where they should go so that shareholders and bondholders and not taxpayers can see exactly what they lost.
J Lee, NY, USA
An icon of the integration of Washington and Wall Street, Paulson has been in a fast track promoting financial globalization as Bush has been pushing it politically and militarily. Too mush push at a hectic speed has apparently caused a global crisis which is yet to unfold. Watch out.
John Hu, philadelphia, USA