Gerard Baker
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It's been conventional wisdom for months in Washington that the only way that the Democrats were going to lose this election was if Barack Obama just seemed too big a risk.
The desire for change has been so palpable for so long, the stench of failure around the Bush Administration so great, the mood of the country so grim, that only fear of the Democratic candidate's callowness and doubts about his alignment with the basic values of Americans could possibly stop him.
Now, as a campaign that seemed to have started 17 years ago winds down into its final 17 days, two important new realities have emerged.
First, the scale of the economic crisis has become so politically dominant that, even if Mr Obama were exposed in the next two weeks as a Manchurian Candidate, programmed by Islamic fundamentalists to subvert the very core of American life, there's a chance voters would still think: hell, at least he's not from Wall Street.
But the other thing that has happened is that Mr Obama has not only succeeded in uprooting much of the thicket of doubts about his own suitability and readiness. He has had the unusual good fortune to watch as his opponent has planted a whole forest of fearful uncertainties around his own fitness for the presidency.
In the course of an extraordinary few weeks, it has been John McCain, the 35-year veteran of public life, the genuine hero who almost gave his life for his country, who has looked like the dangerous risk that Americans cannot afford to take.
His erratic sorties into the financial mess have laid waste to the idea that he is safe in a crisis. His performance in three presidential debates made him look angry and disconnected, befuddled and hurt at the misfortunes that have befallen him.
Worst of all, his attempts - and those of Sarah Palin, his once promising running-mate - to destroy Mr Obama by association with the 1960s radical William Ayers have backfired. No one has seriously been taken in by the suggestion that Mr Obama harbours in his bosom a domestic terrorist who once tried to blow up the Capitol. The effort has bewildered voters who, when the economy is in danger of disappearing down a sinkhole of financial panic, have had to listen to one candidate for president ranting about someone they have never heard of.
It's a tragic way for Mr McCain's career to end. If there was any justice he would have been president eight years ago. Instead this mighty oak of American integrity and honour is in danger of being blown over by the combined hurricane forces of inescapable economic collapse and shoddy political exigency.
All this means that, instead of the close election that Americans thought they would have, there is a very good chance that they are heading for a blowout. Instead of acting as countervailing forces, the macro-political conditions (desire for change) have been reinforced by the micro-political forces (the appeal of the individual candidates).
This will have enormous political consequences. Mr Obama is on course to become the first Democrat to win more than 50.1 per cent of the vote in a presidential election since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Barring a last-minute miracle, he will be elected on the crest of a wave of Democratic triumph in Congress. The Democrats are likely to gain between six and ten seats in the Senate, giving them as many as 61 seats out of 100, and possibly another 20 in the House, giving them a majority of more than 70.
These data alone will place the 2008 election on a par with the transformative elections of the past 100 years. The only two occasions in the last century when the party of a newly elected president made gains on this scale in Congress were 1932 and 1980; the births of the New Deal and the Reagan Revolution.
So we are about to witness something extraordinary. America, the country that the world loves to think of as an irredeemable hell of gun-toting, government-hating, Bible-clutching, gas-guzzling right wingers, is about to have the most left-wing government in what used to be called the industrialised world.
This week in Canada, voters re-elected a Conservative Government. Canadians, whom most Americans regard as welfare-loving, diversity-promoting, irreligious, gay-embracing peaceniks from the frozen wastes, will soon look on with interest as their neighbours down south experiment, like newly liberated teenagers, with all sorts of weird economic and political substances.
In Europe, Conservatives rule in Germany France and Italy, and despite the miraculous recent apparitions of the Dark Lord Mandelson of the Manipulative Genius and Saint Gordon of Perpetual Financial Succour, the Tories still look likely to take over within the next two years.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, a fully Democratic Government will take office with a domestic agenda that would make European hearts pine nostalgically: huge expansion of healthcare; a vast programme of public investment in modern energy technologies; a liberalising social agenda to be pursued, as is now customary, through stacking the courts with politically activist judges.
There's an argument to be made that this sort of revolution is not really what Americans will be choosing in voting for the Democrats. They will be voting against not an ideology, but a record of staggering, almost picturesque government incompetence.
The Bush Administration, despite its image abroad, has not been a paragon of harsh, anti-government individualism. On the contrary, the past eight years have paved the way for big government's return. What has distinguished Republicans is their crass ineptitude in running it.
But that is often how political revolutions are made. A nation isn't suddenly intellectually convinced by an alternative ideology. It just rejects the people who have screwed up, and in doing so, creates an opening for a new era.
It wasn't clear in 1932 that, in electing Franklin Roosevelt, the country was endorsing the New Deal. In fact, as economics student know, FDR campaigned on reducing the government deficit. But that did not alter the magnitude of what followed. And nor, I suspect, will the current occasion for Republican defeat.
A wise old British politician was once asked for a simple explanation of the American political system: “Very simple, “ he said. “It's like our own. They have two political parties. The Republican party is very much like our Conservative party. And the Democratic Party is very much like our... Conservative party”.
No longer. In domestic politics, although perhaps not in international affairs, the Democrats are closer to a European left-of-centre party than any American party in generations. The only difference is that they are about to get their hands on power.
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GW Bush ruined the reputation of the Republican party by spending like a Democrat, but then he had 9/11 to deal with. Clinton balanced the budget by slashing the DOD budget, which is one way Obama plans on raising funds. Clinton was at least a fiscal conservative; Obama is not.
Jeannie, Denver, CO, USA
Well, my 27-year-old son in Colorado - a foot soldier for MoveOn.org in the last election - posted to his Facebook page last night that he "just bought his first 100 shares of stock, and is voting for McCain to keep it safe." Obama shouldn't congratulate himself just yet.
Candace Bowen, Washington, DC, USA
Obama wins, and will do what no other President has done in 60 years. Our Military footprint around the world, including Europe, Japan, and South Korea will finally end. Its time for the EU to take over security for Europe without US forces and money. No more NATO for America!!
Dave, Ohio, USA
This election is over. CNN is reporting that McCain is now going all in in order to win Pennsylvania as his only electoral college hope. He trails there by 10-14 points in the polls. To put it into perspective, that is the same margin that Obama trails in Bush's home state of Texas.
Matt, Las Cruces, NM, USA
Just a clarification, the Canadian Conservatives would be classed as liberals in the US. The Canadian political scene resembles that of Europe: Social Democrat Christian Democrate. In contrast, the American Right is unique in the western world. Its all to do with the Protestant Ethic and the Canadians are a load of ex-Catholics or even some practising Catholics.
Dr Hugh Phillips, Boucherville Quebec, Canada
Barack Obama's qualifications are perfect. He has the intellegence, education, hearts desire, knowledge and compassion to do an extraordinary job. He has expertise in civil rights. His so-called inexperience is an asset because he has not been around enough to have been tainted by the evils.
Jan, Azusa, USA
The Presidency is irrellevence as that well known lefty Eisenhower put it.
"we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist"
How many lost lives and $$ since 1961?
Tom, Huddersfield, uk
Baker, I'm relieved, and a bit surprised that you have come to your senses, that Barack Obama BA(Columbia)PhD(Jurispredence Doctor Havard University), State Senator(Illinois 71/2 years)US Senator 3 years and Professor, Constitutional law(Chicago University 12 years) is qualified to be president
Daniel Onyango, Lancaster, Lancashire
Obama is the kind of change I can do without.
Scott, Durham, NC, USA
What's most amusing to me is that people think it's going to make a difference who gets elected and who controls Congress. The only reason someone goes into politics is because they like the sound of their own voice. That's why I'm voting for Eddie Izzard.
Preston, Winter Park, USA
I was actually going to vote for McCain until he chose Palin. According to the actuaries, McCain has a one in three chance of dying in office. I didn't want to wake up one morning and find out that President Palin had invaded Iran because Bible prophecy demanded it. I will grudgingly vote for Obama.
Gerald Joyce, Chicago, USA
Their present debt's bad enough but their savings are poor as well. You any idea the mountain of debt the US will have? See that Chris Martenson's "the crash course" website. Live within your means and that means raising taxes.
Mike Donald, aberdeen, uk
You are so disillusioned if you think Barack Obama is going to win. You're talking about a nation that elected Bush TWICE. You think they're going to elect Obama??? Come on. As an American living in the UK, I would love nothing more than Mr. Obama to win, but the reality will be McCain.
Jaime, London,
Change is coming, but don't start singing Happy Days are Here Again - With one party having total control of legislative and executive branches scares me to death - Expect to see captalism turned on it's ear - Socialist Democracy is on it's way - Get out your checkbook America, it will be costly!
WTaylor, London, UK
paul from belfast - you've said all that needs to be said on this one
andrew west, london,
I feel Obama is a breath of fresh air for the US & equally important I hope for the rest of us!It is time the US govenment took an outward vision on world affairs whilst serving it's own citizens this will bring a new age of confidence that we can all live and trade together as globisation means to!
Dave Farmer, Broxbourne, England
These comments from the US sound very sour grapes. Why did you put up McCain in the first place? Is he the best you have?!! And that Palin woman. My God!! She sounds so ridiculous. The old guard Republicans appear to be on their knees and will find change for the better very hard to swallow.
James, Beckton, East London
You want Obama so bad, take him. We won't miss him and we don't want him. Lies are not change, its more of the same.
I do not look forward to some fool pulling another Ace of Spades out of his sleeve every time something does not go his way. I'm bored with his race baiting.
Pansycritter, Maple City, USA
Where is the money to pay for all this neo-socialism? In China? The Chinese might have other ideas. Communists hate socialists as in Hitler's Germany and the USSR. Dems are so righteous in opposition, with no responsibilities. We'll see how they willy-nilly assume them. Don't get excited, yet.
Felix, Mountain View,
I think you're all in for a big surprise on election day. McCain will win big, and Congress will go back to the Republicans. By now everyone has seen the youtube videos of the Repubs in 2004 trying to get more regulation and oversight of Fannie and Freddie, and the Dems blocking them at every step.
Bismuth, California, USA
The possibility of a horribly liberal white house along with a horribly liberal house and senate sends chills down my spine. When I think how this great country will be "led" into the same type of unprecedented socialism that is the rule of the land on the other side of the pond, I want to wretch.
holly, Huntington, usa
As usual, GB shows that he spends too much time listening to Limbaugh and his ilk, ranting about the threat from the far left. Repetition and a high decibel level don't make this true. Obama and his advisers are cautious centrists.
davidp, Kingston, Canada
I've heard the experts proclaim it's over for the last 45 years. The experts are consistently wrong. The last Democrat to get over 50% of the vote was Jimmy Carter. The electoral vote is a different matter, which is why the Obama campaign has ACORN working overtime Extra ballots =extra votes
r. burns, St. Pete, USA
McCain has completely failed to tell the American people about the clear choice between his and Obama's policies of tax and spend -- he only has himself to blame, but unfortuantely those who want smaller government and more personal choice will also be the losers.
Mark, London, UK
Or perhaps we're about to witness "DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN!", the sequel.
Randy, Death Valley,, CA
With an Obama Presidency and a overwhelming Democratic Congress, I predict we will be a depression by the end of Obama's 1st term. it will take America 20 years to recover. It took from 1929 to 1954 for the US to recover from the great depression. FDR didn't help shorten it. He prolonged it.
Sandra , Santa Barbara, CA, USA
Blowout ? For Obama ?
The polls are if anything tightening a little, a mere 5 or 6% difference, it's far from over.
Is the electorate so uninformed that they would reward the Dem party that essentially created the credit crunch via their loony policies regarding mortgages for the unqualified ?
Stan(expat for now), DFW, Texas, Usa
I'm sick and tired of the reference that McCain is a American war hero. I remember the Vietnam War; another debacle, like Iraq.
For those who are younger...google on "Gulf of Tonkin Resolution" and discover the truth of the US Government's warmongering. Why have a relic such as McCain as President.
Darcy, Portland, US
I'm 71 years old and wouldn't dream of voting for myself, let alone standing for high office. I get these memory lapses, forgetting names of people, places and presidents. Last week I could have sworn Gordon Brown was the president of Europe! Age or colour? If colour is a problem, age is worse.
Christopher R, Cape Town , South Africa
I wonder why great men like Clinton and McCain eventually destroy their greatness with such vigor.
Obama does not have a milligram of that urge for self destruction in his bones. He needs however to be very worried about what can come from outside. God forbid.
robert , vancouver, bc
Obama has been given a free pass, and he has been designated The Chosen One", much to the shock and chagrin of the Clintons. The race isnt over yet, and no American worth his salt is even listening to the spin doctors of the mainstream media. Honestly, neither canidate deserves this post.
Alex Bowerman, Norfolk, Virginia, USA
Andrew Undershaft: The historic balanced budgets in the 90s were due to the historic Republican control of Congress starting in 1995, under Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. The first balanced budgets in about 40 years coincided with the first Republican Congress in 40 years. Amazing coincidence!!
Bismuth, California, USA
By what measure is John McCain a "mighty oak of American integrity and honour" ? You have been negative about Obama throughout this campaign and in the face of his seeming success now see a race-baiting, scheming and "Keating Five" McCain as a man imbued with honour and intergrity.
Mukefor Dennis Tambe, Crawley, United Kingdom
Didn't you mean picaresque?
John Tillett, Sydney, Australia
Bob...you may well have survived Jimmy C. But you haven't survived George who has buried you so deep you might never emerge. And if being tortured by the enemy is a qualification for President then there is a long line of Iraqis waiting to take over their country when you finally cut and run.
John Cummins, Munich, Germany
The future of America? Look at our urban centers for a hint; all Democratic and complete disaster centers.
Frank, Olalla, USA
"America...is about to have the most left-wing government in what used to be called the industrialised world."
Really?
France, Germany and Canada's governments calling themselves Conservative doesn't automatically make them more Conservative than the Democrats.
I'd like to see specifics.
David Chester, Durham, Co.Durham, UK
America is ready for Obama. We've waited too long.
betsy, new york, usa
We survived Jimmy Carter, we can survive Obama if it comes to that. Latest Gallup Poll has it at 2 points, so it is not over yet.
Bob, Alexandria VA, USA
Eventually the Bush administration will be seen as a period of hubris. Complacent after their Cold War victory, the historic balancing of the federal budget under Clinton, and the longest economic expansion in memory, the US electorate lost their senses and elected someone totally unfit for office.
Andrew Undershaft, London, UK
Sounds like you are endorsing Obama. The Dems have had a free pass in the press and public opinion and all they really know how to do is to spend and tax, something Europeans love. I consider myself a conservative librarian. I don't drive a gas guzzling SUV, I ride a motorcycle year round.
Paul Bahre, Granby, CT, USA
The point about Mr Obama is that the issue of his colour is absolutely irrelevant from the moment you begin to hear him speak intelligently and cogently about important matters of the day. "Colour" is largely a matter of class consciousness and Mr Obama is clearly a member of the intellectual elite
A Stewart, wellington, New Zealand
I'm not the least bit worried about Barack Obama as president. Given his lack of executive experience, he won't be able to execute his policies. Add to that the Democrats: They fight better than any family, meaning they'll crush Barack's intiatives. The Republicans will look great in two years.
Doug , Glen Ellyn, IL, USA
It is said people get the Governments they deserve. It would appear this is correct, given they put that moron back in power in 2004. I strongly believe the U.S., with Obama, will now get the Government they require and the rest of the world needs.
Anthony R Hall, Melbourne, Australia
Incredibly, that the economic disaster was arranged with care by Dems, & heralded early in the campaign, is not mentioned either by Gerard, nor in the debates, less the news, except by remote inference. This age-old leftist ploy has been operated for decades, in 1991as "it's the economy stupid."
George, Stillwater , Oklahoma
Knock on wood the nightmare of the last 8 years of Republican incompetence will end. If Obama wins I will be happy. While he cannot undue the damage inflicted by Bush and his surrogates on our great country and world, Obama will return to that horribly liberal notion of rational decisionmaking...
Greg, Tallahassee, FL, USA
Mighty oak of American integrity and honour? I think McCain took a chainsaw to that himself with his cynical choice of VP. He has only himself to blame for a ruined reputation and ignominious retirement.
Paul, Belfast,