Gerard Baker
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Central bankers are those rare human beings who actually go out of their way to make their jobs sound boring. Where the rest of us like to thrill our interlocutors with exaggerated tales of courage in the face of unimaginable challenges in the accounts receivable department, they understate for a living, professionally.
They speak in a language that is designed to induce sleep after about three seconds. Somewhere along the line, they seem to have kissed some anti-Blarney stone, a magical, life-draining rock that deprives their conversation of light, colour and fun.
“If you think I've said something interesting,” they have been heard to explain apologetically, “then you haven't understood what I've said.”
Yet such is their job, of course, that often they do things that are truly historic, momentous, as consequential in their way as a great political initiative, a soaring piece of oratory or an invasion.
But when they do, they are careful not to trumpet it. They shrug it off, downplay it all, wrap it in some impenetrable language, hoping to God that no one will notice it.
And they call it something like quantitative easing. Quantitative easing sounds like the lesson you forgot in physics class, or possibly some obscure part of the common law that has to do with conveyancing of multiple pieces of real property.
It is in fact a sensational financial departure, a revolutionary bit of economic policy. It is the monetary policy equivalent of Martin Luther's Ninety-Five Theses, the Gettysburg Address or the D-Day landings. And this week, the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, the most powerful financial institution on the face of the planet, in characteristically understated fashion, decided to do it.
If you doubted that we are living in truly turbulent times, if you are one of those people out there who still thinks that this whole economic crisis business has been overdone by the media, then the US central bank's action this week should lift the scales from your eyes.
Quantitative easing is, in essence, what you do as a central bank when you have run out of things to do to avert catastrophe. It is that moment in the horror movie when you are backed up into the kitchen by the intruder and you start pulling out the kitchen sink as your last weapon.
This week, in an historic first, the Fed cut US market interest rates for overnight loans to zero, give or take a few hundredths of a percentage point. The reason, of course, is that the economic and financial crisis is getting worse. The US economy is plunging into its deepest recession in 50 years or more, with a strong possibility that total output will contract in the current quarter at an annual rate of 7 per cent. Banks won't lend, customers won't borrow.
But worse still is the possibility that the economy might begin to suffer deflation, a period of generalised price declines. Deflation sometimes puzzles people. Isn't it a good thing when prices fall? Can't we all afford to buy more things? Weren't we panicking six months ago that prices were rising too fast?
The problem is that a general fall in the price level can be catastrophic for a country for three main reasons. First, it encourages people to defer purchases. If you can get something cheaper in six months' time, you're going to wait. For an economy in or near a depression that is a disaster.
Second, it increases the real value of debt. If you have a $300,000 mortgage and prices - and wages - fall, that means the actual value of that debt in terms of your spending power is rising.
Third, it reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. You can't have negative interest rates (though there have been some very strange intimations of such in the past few weeks). As a general rule, people will not pay banks to hold their money; they'll just keep it in cash. So the central bank's usual tool for saving the world from recession - lower interest rates - is useless when rates cannot go any lower.
The last resort in these circumstances is quantitative easing. The central bank essentially prints money, unrelated to the level of interest in the economy. Specifically, what the Fed is proposing to do is to use the printed cash to buy up all sorts of long-term debt - mortgage securities and government bonds. That will lower the interest rates on those assets (these are not the overnight interest rates already set at zero, but longer-maturity rates). So mortgages and other loans will become cheaper, and money will slosh around the economy.
At the same time the new administration of Barack Obama is going to spend a fortune on everything from roads to railways to computers and solar panels. This will not be paid for by taxes but by the same printed money pouring out of the Fed.
The result of all this, you will remember from those heady days of the 1970s, should be inflation: usually a bad thing, but now, given the threat of deflation, a good thing, a necessary corrective to the disastrous alternative.
There are, of course, risks in this dramatic new move by the Fed. With the US printing dollars willy-nilly, the value of the US dollar should decline. This could cause international investors to shun the currency, precipitating further disastrous falls in the value of US assets.
It's also not necessarily the case that higher inflation will get the US out of its near-depression. Japan is the only other leading country that has tried quantitative easing in the past 50 years. It's been at it for seven years and is still in a slump (though it has at least stopped deflation)
The biggest risk is in storing up trouble for the future. When inflation gets going, the central bank will have to be very quick to reverse course: mop up all that excess money and push interest rates much higher. That won't be a pleasant policy for an economy just starting to recover. But it's a problem that the Fed would love to have right now. Not that those central bankers would put it quite that colourfully.
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Quantitative easing = printing money. It's a recipe for disaster leading to high (even hyper)inflation.
Andy, Welsh Marches,
Indeed it is Revolutionary. The French Monarchy in the 1780's tried it with the Assignats, and we all know what happened. The Germans tried it in 1923, and we all know what happened. The Romans in the Fifth Century........The Argentinians muchy more recently. Anyone for the barricades?
Tom, Maidstone, UK
If QE is just another word for 'Printing Money', and thus dilutes the value of those whose savings are held in USD, then why is the 30yr US bond trading at a yield of just 2.5%? ... Does this mean that the bond markets dont believe that printing money will eventually lead to inflation?
Harvey, London, UK
In the UK we already have a run on the pound without quantitative easing and interest rates at 2%. If and when we get to 0% like the US it will probably be too late and we will be going 'cap in hand' to the IMF. Let's hope the BoE realise the folly of their ways before cutting further but I doubt it
john, milton keynes,
Tom and Dave, For TVs etc.. what you describe is not deflation but price falls due to progressive shifts in the underlying level of technology that leads to increased productivity of labour and capital.
Gawain, london,
So if QE is such a good thing, why didnt we have the opposite to QE when inflation threatened? Why did the government not take in cash and burn it?
Prices going up => buy now not later, & value of debt/saving being eroded, - Q:-So why no control of M3 money supply since 2001?
A: Elections
N Reed, London, UK
The dollar is toast. The only way to protect your savings right now is to buy physical gold and silver!
Rog, Stockholm, Sweden
I am an accounts receivables department. Were it not for my efforts and perseverance to ring many of our debtors countless times to ask to be paid, many of our debts would remain debts.
A sale is not a sale until it has been paid for.
I am helping to preserve a dozen jobs.
Don't make fun of that!
Erika Cox, Gloucestershire,
Quantitative easing is what kingdoms have always done when the gold starts running out-mix it with a bit of lead and hope no-one notices the difference.We've been here before, and the end result is already known.Its called inflation, and it is great for people with debts.As they say:Never a saver be
Andrew Piercy, London, UK
This is endgame don't you think otherwise. 2009 is going to result in destruction (financial and socially) in a way never seen in the past 80 years in the United States. If you want to get a real life look at what is very possible to take place here in the United States just look at Argentina.
Brett F, Apopka, Unites States
the real definition of deflation is a contraction in the money supply, yields lower prices just as inflation (increase in money) will eventually lead to higher prices. The key point being EVENTUALLY. Demand destruction can cause declining prices but can still maintain a rising monetary base.
steve, des moines, usa
Of course we could look to the past (Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, and Argentina) for the implications of quantitative easing.
steve, des moines, usa
Inflation is a good thing? No wonder we're in such a mess when such rubbish is given as "wisdom." Deflation does not go on forever. If you are in debt, now you learned- no cash, no buy. Deflation seems better than the hyperinflation that's coming. The Fed is smart enough to avoid that? Right!
Scott, Lebanon, USA
There's no mystery here, we're at the bottom of a business cycle. People and business have sated themselves with "Stuff" and are tapped out, or busted. More credit or more fiat money is not going to change this. Only the arrival of the "New", new thing will bring relief. Like the PC of the 80's.
Peter Taber, miaim, FL
There is oneoverlooked certainty - people with savings on deposit will have no reason to leave their money in rocky banks at interest rates that are actualy negative and in devaluing currencies. More and more people are going to withdraw their funds to put under the bed or buy GOLD or other hedges
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Is'nt it all relative ultimately,a cup of water can save one's life in certain situations when a million bucks would be worthless in a caskless society. the ultimate winners are those left,but even that can be a matter of opinion.
Eddy, Bury St.Edmunds,
Let's be mildly cynical. The United States economy has a balance sheet problem -- too much debt. By printing money the Fed will eventually allow debtors to repay their debt at a substantial discount. This solves the balance sheet problem. Let's hope the cure isn't worse than the disease.
Morris Robinson, Boston, United States
QE - ridiculed by Paulson, Bernanke et al in Japan 1990s is now THE PLAN. One thing you can count on from the Americans is hypocrisy.
dhome, sydney, australia
1)the value of the yen has not dropped precipitately 2)if added value is attached to printed money it is not inflationary 3)the $ must be measurd against other currencies and you will see the market isn't exactly punishing the $
the real world is not about esoteric theories...it is about facts
abelard, oxford, uk
Tom,
Deflation may have been happening on knick-nacs but not on your property - therein lies our problems.
Perhaps if property inflation had been factored into all of our inflation calculations we wouldn't have been effectively flooding our economy with unaccounted for monies for years.
Dale, Australia,
Quantitative easing has been used by many successful economies, such as Argentina and Zimbabwe. After all, it must be better than letting the important bankers suffer their true losses from foolish investments, and setting up new banks.
David Martin, Bristol, UK
It sounds like giving credibility to
money printing.
Just means money printing to me.
N. Walker, Bromsgrove, Worcs.
Deflation has been happening for years (TVs, mobiles, cars etc) - it hasn't been a problem till now.
People can't delay purchases of food, fuel or basic entertainment (anyway food is still rising)
The reason governments don't like deflation is that it decreases their tax revenue. I.e. power
Tom, Manchester,